Indiana State hosts Wisc. Milwaukee in the NCAA on 11 November 2026, with the model designating Indiana State as the favourite thanks to an 85% win probability and a projected 82-70 scoreline that reflects their 1-1 season record, 69.5 points per game and 72.0 allowed per game, while Wisc. Milwaukee sits at 1-2, 78.0 points per game and 79.3 allowed per game. Indiana State has struggled at home, 0-1 with 70.0 points and 78.0 allowed, but won 69-66 away against Ball State, whereas Wisc. Milwaukee has gone 0-2 on the road, 67.5 points and 95.0 allowed, and only managed a 99-48 home win over Ripon Red Hawks. The teams have met once before, with Indiana State winning 70-68 on 14 December 2025. The Pythia model gives Indiana State an 85% chance of winning, a 74% probability of covering the home line of -5.0, and a 48% chance of the total going over 152.0, with a 3% chance of overtime. The projected total of 151.4 points sits just below the over line, hinting at a tight contest.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Indiana State winLost
84.7%fair 1.18
Best odds1.57
Implied61.2%
Edge+23.4pp
Wisc. Milwaukee winWon
15.3%fair 6.52
Best odds2.61
Implied38.8%
Edge-23.4pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 10 Nov 07:00 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Indiana State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 149Actual: Over 149
Over 149
55.6%
@ 1.50-6.9pp
Under 149
44.4%
@ 2.50+6.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.50
Under
Bet365
2.50
Over/Under 154 · main lineActual: Over 154
Over 154
43.1%
@ 1.96-7.4pp
Under 154
56.9%
@ 1.93+7.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.96
Pinnacle
1.89
Marathon Be
1.87
SBO
1.81
Under
Pinnacle
1.93
SBO
1.88
Marathon Be
1.83
Bet365
1.80
Over/Under 159Actual: Under 159
Over 159
31.3%
@ 2.62-4.1pp
Under 159
68.7%
@ 1.44+4.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.62
Under
Bet365
1.44
📊 3. Team Totals
Indiana State total 75Actual: Indiana State under 75
Over 75
75.2%
Under 75
24.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Indiana State total 79 · main lineActual: Indiana State under 79
Over 79
60.5%
@ 1.86+10.6pp
Under 79
39.5%
@ 1.85-10.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
Indiana State total 83Actual: Indiana State under 83
Over 83
43.9%
Under 83
56.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wisc. Milwaukee total 69Actual: Wisc. Milwaukee over 69
Over 69
53.0%
Under 69
47.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wisc. Milwaukee total 73 · main lineActual: Wisc. Milwaukee over 73
Over 73
36.9%
@ 1.85-13.1pp
Under 73
63.1%
@ 1.85+13.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Wisc. Milwaukee total 77Actual: Wisc. Milwaukee over 77
Over 77
23.2%
Under 77
76.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Indiana State -7Actual: Wisc. Milwaukee +7
INDI -7
67.0%
@ 2.44+27.8pp
WISC +7
33.0%
@ 1.57-27.8pp
Best 5 market prices
INDI
Pinnacle
2.44
Bet365
2.25
WISC
Bet365
1.57
Pinnacle
1.57
Spread Indiana State -4 · main lineActual: Wisc. Milwaukee +4
INDI -4
76.9%
@ 1.96+27.8pp
WISC +4
23.1%
@ 1.92-27.8pp
Best 5 market prices
INDI
Pinnacle
1.96
Marathon Be
1.88
SBO
1.81
Bet365
1.80
WISC
Bet365
1.92
Pinnacle
1.89
SBO
1.88
Marathon Be
1.83
Spread Indiana State -1Actual: Wisc. Milwaukee +1
INDI -1
84.4%
@ 1.52+23.2pp
WISC +1
15.6%
@ 2.40-23.2pp
Best 5 market prices
INDI
Bet365
1.52
WISC
Bet365
2.40
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
Indiana StateWisc. Milwaukee
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Indiana StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Southern Illinois
#203
L
32-37
32
37
-5
H10/02
NCAA
Murray State
#102
L
21-43
21
43
-22
H13/02
NCAA
Valparaiso
#170
L
43-49
43
49
-6
A15/02
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#88
L
34-36
34
36
-2
H19/02
NCAA
Belmont
#25
L
25-39
25
39
-14
A22/02
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#203
L
23-36
23
36
-13
A26/02
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#155
W
35-31
35
31
+4
H01/03
NCAA
Valparaiso
#170
W
37-28
37
28
+9
A06/03
NCAA
Charlotte
#186
W
30-27
30
27
+3
H03/11
NCAA
Ball State
#267
L
32-37
32
37
-5
A07/11
NCAA
67.5Avg total
31.2Scored
36.3Allowed
1st half
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the half
Over 72.5
Last 30 (30)
33.8
34.8
68.6
-1.0
47%
33%
Last 30 at home (15)
34.9
32.2
67.1
+2.7
60%
33%
Last 30 away (15)
32.7
37.3
70.1
-4.6
33%
33%
Last 10 (10)
31.2
36.3
67.5
-5.1
30%
10%
Last 5 (5)
31.4
31.8
63.2
-0.4
60%
0%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (18)
32.4
36.9
69.3
-4.4
39%
28%
vs Similar (7)
34.7
32.9
67.6
+1.9
43%
29%
vs Weaker (5)
37.4
29.8
67.2
+7.6
80%
60%
This opponent (Wisc. Milwaukee) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Indiana State -6
70.4%
2.13
Pinnacle
2.37
Bet365
2.10
SBO
1.93
-
-
+30.0pp
Lost
Indiana State -5
73.7%
2.02
Pinnacle
2.16
Marathon Bet
2.01
SBO
1.96
Bet365
1.95
-
+29.4pp
Lost
Indiana State -5.5
71.4%
2.02
Pinnacle
2.26
Betano
2.07
Bet365
2.00
1xBet
1.99
SBO
1.93
+29.0pp
Lost
Indiana State -4.5
74.5%
1.92
Pinnacle
2.06
Marathon Bet
1.95
Betano
1.93
Bet365
1.93
SBO
1.88
+28.1pp
Lost
Indiana State -4
76.9%
1.86
Pinnacle
1.96
Marathon Bet
1.88
SBO
1.81
Bet365
1.80
-
+27.8pp
Lost
Indiana State -3.5
77.6%
1.79
Pinnacle
1.86
Marathon Bet
1.82
Betano
1.80
1xBet
1.77
SBO
1.75
+26.0pp
Lost
Indiana State -3
79.5%
1.73
Pinnacle
1.78
Bet365
1.68
-
-
-
+25.7pp
Lost
Indiana State (regulation)
82.8%
1.57
1xBet
1.60
Marathon Bet
1.57
Betano
1.55
-
-
+25.1pp
Lost
Indiana State -2
82.4%
1.63
Pinnacle
1.66
Bet365
1.60
-
-
-
+24.7pp
Lost
Indiana State -2.5
79.9%
1.68
Pinnacle
1.72
1xBet
1.70
Bet365
1.66
Betano
1.65
-
+24.2pp
Lost
Indiana State -1.5
82.9%
1.56
Bet365
1.57
Betano
1.55
-
-
-
+23.9pp
Lost
Indiana State win
84.7%
1.51
Pinnacle
1.57
Marathon Bet
1.53
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.52
1xBet
1.51
+23.4pp
Lost
Indiana State -1
84.4%
1.52
Bet365
1.52
-
-
-
-
+23.2pp
Lost
Wisc. Milwaukee under 76.5
74.5%
1.72
Pinnacle
1.79
Betano
1.65
-
-
-
+22.0pp
Lost
Wisc. Milwaukee under 75.5
71.3%
1.84
Pinnacle
1.90
WilliamHill
1.85
Betano
1.80
Bet365
1.80
-
+21.6pp
Lost
Indiana State +1
85.9%
1.44
Bet365
1.44
-
-
-
-
+21.4pp
Lost
Indiana State +2
87.9%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+20.6pp
Lost
Indiana State +1.5
86.1%
1.42
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.41
-
-
-
+20.5pp
Lost
Wisc. Milwaukee under 75
70.3%
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
+20.5pp
Lost
Indiana State +2.5
88.2%
1.35
Bet365
1.36
Betano
1.35
-
-
-
+19.9pp
Lost
Indiana State +3
89.4%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+18.6pp
Lost
Indiana State +3.5
89.6%
1.31
Bet365
1.31
Betano
1.30
-
-
-
+18.6pp
Lost
Wisc. Milwaukee under 78.5
80.2%
1.45
Betano
1.45
-
-
-
-
+17.9pp
Lost
Indiana State +4.5
91.1%
1.26
Betano
1.26
-
-
-
-
+17.8pp
Lost
Wisc. Milwaukee under 77.5
77.5%
1.52
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
+17.0pp
Lost
Wisc. Milwaukee under 80.5
85.0%
1.33
Betano
1.33
-
-
-
-
+16.3pp
Lost
Wisc. Milwaukee under 79.5
82.7%
1.36
Betano
1.39
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
+15.2pp
Lost
Indiana State +6.5
93.5%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
+14.6pp
Lost
Indiana State +10.5
96.6%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+11.1pp
Won
Indiana State over 73.5
79.0%
1.33
Bet365
1.35
Betano
1.32
-
-
-
+10.2pp
Lost
Indiana State over 75.5
72.8%
1.47
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.44
-
-
-
+10.1pp
Lost
Indiana State over 74.5
76.0%
1.36
Betano
1.36
-
-
-
-
+9.5pp
Lost
Indiana State +15.5
98.5%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+8.9pp
Won
Indiana State over 71.5
84.3%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+8.1pp
Won
Overtime: no
96.9%
1.04
WilliamHill
1.06
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
+7.2pp
-
Indiana State +20.5
99.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+6.6pp
Won
Indiana State over 70.5
86.5%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
+6.0pp
Won
Under 160.5
71.4%
1.39
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.36
-
-
-
+5.0pp
Won
Under 161.5
73.5%
1.35
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
+4.5pp
Won
Under 160
70.8%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+3.8pp
Won
Under 161
72.9%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+3.4pp
Won
Under 176.5
93.5%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+2.4pp
Won
Indiana State under 98.5
95.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.8pp
Won
Indiana State under 97.5
94.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.7pp
Won
Over 126.5
93.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.9pp
Won
Indiana State under 95.5
92.0%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+0.5pp
Won
Under 171.5
89.0%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+0.3pp
Won
Under 166.5
82.3%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
-0.7pp
Won
Over 131.5
88.9%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-0.8pp
Won
Indiana State under 93.5
88.6%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-1.1pp
Won
Wisc. Milwaukee over 56.5
90.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-3.1pp
Won
Wisc. Milwaukee over 57.5
88.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-3.4pp
Won
Wisc. Milwaukee +24.5
87.0%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-3.5pp
Won
Over 141.5
72.6%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
-3.6pp
Won
Over 136.5
81.8%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-3.7pp
Won
Indiana State under 91.5
84.2%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-4.1pp
Won
Wisc. Milwaukee over 58.5
86.8%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-4.7pp
Won
Indiana State under 88.5
75.9%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
-5.6pp
Won
Indiana State under 89.5
78.9%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-6.1pp
Won
Wisc. Milwaukee over 59.5
84.6%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-6.2pp
Won
Indiana State under 87.5
72.6%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
-7.9pp
Won
Wisc. Milwaukee over 60.5
82.1%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-8.1pp
Won
Wisc. Milwaukee over 61.5
79.3%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-9.7pp
Won
Wisc. Milwaukee +19.5
75.8%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
-10.8pp
Won
Wisc. Milwaukee over 62.5
76.4%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-11.9pp
Won
Wisc. Milwaukee over 63.5
73.2%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-12.9pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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