Ball State faces Indiana State on 6 November 2026 in the NCAA, with Ball State arriving on a very different run from the Sycamores who have struggled this season; Ball State is 0-1 with an average of 55.0 points scored and 67.0 allowed, while Indiana State is also 0-1 but averages 70.0 points and 78.0 allowed, placing them 295th and 270th respectively in the league. Ball State's last five games were 4-1, including a 85-69 win over Central Michigan at home and a 74-71 win over Western Michigan away, whereas Indiana State's last five were 1-4, highlighted by a 79-63 home victory over Illinois (Chi.) and losses to Charlotte and Valparaiso. In their six meetings, Indiana State leads 5-1, most recently beating Ball State 70-52 on 22 November 2025. Pythia names Ball State the favourite with a 74% chance of winning versus 26% for Indiana State, projecting a 75-68 score and 143.2 total points. The home line is -2.5 with a 67% chance of covering, while the over on 147.5 has a 39% probability, and the game has a 4% chance of overtime. Ball State's recent 85-69 win shows the team's ability to dominate at home.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ball State winLost
73.5%fair 1.36
Best odds1.79
Implied53.7%
Edge+19.8pp
Indiana State winWon
26.5%fair 3.78
Best odds2.15
Implied46.3%
Edge-19.8pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 05 Nov 07:14 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Ball State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 142.5Actual: Under 142.5
Over 142.5
51.0%
@ 1.44-13.3pp
Under 142.5
49.0%
@ 2.62+13.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Under
Bet365
2.62
Betano
2.57
Over/Under 147.5 · main lineActual: Under 147.5
Over 147.5
39.0%
@ 1.90-11.2pp
Under 147.5
61.0%
@ 1.95+11.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.90
Pinnacle
1.89
Bet365
1.87
Betano
1.82
1xBet
1.80
Under
Betano
1.95
Bet365
1.94
WilliamHill
1.91
Pinnacle
1.91
Marathon Be
1.83
Over/Under 152.5Actual: Under 152.5
Over 152.5
28.1%
@ 2.55-10.1pp
Under 152.5
71.9%
@ 1.53+10.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.55
Betano
2.32
Under
Betano
1.53
Bet365
1.47
📊 3. Team Totals
Ball State total 70.5Actual: Ball State under 70.5
Over 70.5
no forecast
@ 1.38
Under 70.5
no forecast
@ 2.90
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.36
Under
Bet365
2.90
Betano
2.62
Ball State total 75 · main lineActual: Ball State under 75
Over 75
50.6%
@ 1.87+0.8pp
Under 75
49.4%
@ 1.85-0.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Ball State total 79Actual: Ball State under 79
Over 79
34.5%
Under 79
65.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Indiana State total 69Push
Over 69
45.5%
Under 69
54.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Indiana State total 73 · main lineActual: Indiana State under 73
Over 73
30.4%
@ 1.85-19.6pp
Under 73
69.6%
@ 1.85+19.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Indiana State total 77Actual: Indiana State under 77
Over 77
18.3%
Under 77
81.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Ball State -5Actual: Indiana State +5
BALL -5
58.7%
@ 2.33+17.7pp
INDI +5
41.3%
@ 1.62-17.7pp
Best 5 market prices
BALL
Pinnacle
2.33
Bet365
2.25
INDI
Pinnacle
1.62
Bet365
1.57
Spread Ball State -2 · main lineActual: Indiana State +2
BALL -2
69.9%
@ 1.95+20.6pp
INDI +2
30.1%
@ 1.91-20.6pp
Best 5 market prices
BALL
Pinnacle
1.95
Marathon Be
1.86
Bet365
1.80
INDI
Bet365
1.91
Pinnacle
1.90
Marathon Be
1.86
Spread Ball State +1Actual: Indiana State -1
BALL +1
75.2%
@ 1.71+19.2pp
INDI -1
24.8%
@ 2.20-19.2pp
Best 5 market prices
BALL
Pinnacle
1.71
Bet365
1.62
INDI
Bet365
2.20
Pinnacle
2.17
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
Ball StateIndiana State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (Indiana State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Indiana StateLast 10 – 2nd half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Evansville
#362
W
38-34
38
34
+4
A04/02
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#203
L
33-43
33
43
-10
H10/02
NCAA
Murray State
#102
W
51-31
51
31
+20
H13/02
NCAA
Valparaiso
#170
W
32-27
32
27
+5
A15/02
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#88
L
26-45
26
45
-19
H19/02
NCAA
Belmont
#25
L
45-48
45
48
-3
A22/02
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#203
W
32-30
32
30
+2
A26/02
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#155
W
44-32
44
32
+12
H01/03
NCAA
Valparaiso
#170
L
25-35
25
35
-10
A06/03
NCAA
Charlotte
#136
L
40-51
40
51
-11
H03/11
NCAA
74.2Avg total
36.6Scored
37.6Allowed
2nd half
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the half
Over 78.5
Last 30 (30)
37.5
37.7
75.2
-0.2
50%
37%
Last 30 at home (15)
37.7
37.1
74.7
+0.6
47%
33%
Last 30 away (15)
37.3
38.3
75.7
-1.0
53%
40%
Last 10 (10)
36.6
37.6
74.2
-1.0
50%
30%
Last 5 (5)
37.2
39.2
76.4
-2.0
40%
40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (18)
37.5
39.3
76.8
-1.8
44%
44%
vs Similar (7)
33.4
35.0
68.4
-1.6
43%
14%
vs Weaker ◀ (5)
43.2
35.8
79.0
+7.4
80%
40%
This opponent (Ball State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: Indiana State win
BALL win
no forecast
@ 1.82
INDI win
no forecast
@ 2.00
2nd half Spread Ball State -1.5 · main lineActual: Indiana State +1.5
BALL -1.5
no forecast
@ 2.05
INDI +1.5
no forecast
@ 1.72
2nd half Over/Under 78.5 · main lineActual: Under 78.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.88
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Indiana State (regulation)
BALL
no forecast
@ 1.88
Draw
no forecast
@ 17.50
INDI
no forecast
@ 2.05
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Ball State (regulation)
71.0%
1.77
Betano
1.80
Marathon Bet
1.75
-
-
-
+20.3pp
Lost
Ball State win
73.5%
1.72
Pinnacle
1.79
Betano
1.75
Bet365
1.74
Marathon Bet
1.70
WilliamHill
1.70
+19.8pp
Lost
Indiana State under 74.5
73.8%
1.72
Betano
1.72
-
-
-
-
+19.8pp
Won
Ball State -1
72.9%
1.75
Pinnacle
1.80
Bet365
1.71
-
-
-
+19.6pp
Lost
Ball State -1.5
71.1%
1.80
Betano
1.85
Pinnacle
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.79
BetVictor
1.75
Bet365
1.74
+19.3pp
Lost
Ball State +1
75.2%
1.67
Pinnacle
1.71
Bet365
1.62
-
-
-
+19.2pp
Lost
Ball State +1.5
75.7%
1.64
Pinnacle
1.68
Betano
1.65
Bet365
1.58
-
-
+18.7pp
Lost
Indiana State under 73.5
70.6%
1.83
Betano
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Pinnacle
1.81
Bet365
1.80
+18.5pp
Won
Indiana State under 76.5
79.6%
1.47
Betano
1.47
-
-
-
-
+18.0pp
Won
Ball State +2
78.2%
1.54
Bet365
1.54
-
-
-
-
+17.8pp
Lost
Ball State +2.5
78.8%
1.51
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
+17.2pp
Lost
Indiana State under 75.5
76.8%
1.54
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
+16.8pp
Won
Ball State +3.5
81.0%
1.44
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.43
-
-
-
+16.6pp
Won
Indiana State under 78.5
84.5%
1.33
Betano
1.33
-
-
-
-
+16.5pp
Won
Ball State +3
80.6%
1.45
Bet365
1.45
-
-
-
-
+16.4pp
Push
Ball State +4.5
83.4%
1.38
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
+16.3pp
Won
Ball State +4
83.0%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+16.0pp
Won
Ball State +5.5
85.5%
1.32
Betano
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
+15.4pp
Won
Ball State +5
85.2%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+15.2pp
Won
Indiana State under 77.5
82.1%
1.37
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
+15.1pp
Won
Ball State +6.5
87.4%
1.27
Betano
1.27
-
-
-
-
+14.9pp
Won
Ball State +7.5
89.1%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
+11.4pp
Won
Indiana State under 79.5
86.6%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+11.3pp
Won
Under 152
71.3%
1.52
Bet365
1.52
-
-
-
-
+10.1pp
Won
Under 152.5
71.9%
1.50
Betano
1.53
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
+10.1pp
Won
Under 153.5
73.9%
1.44
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.41
-
-
-
+9.7pp
Won
Under 154.5
75.8%
1.40
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
+9.6pp
Won
Under 153
73.4%
1.45
Bet365
1.45
-
-
-
-
+9.2pp
Won
Under 154
75.3%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+9.1pp
Won
Under 155.5
77.6%
1.35
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
+9.1pp
Won
Ball State +12.5
94.9%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
+8.8pp
Won
Ball State +17.5
97.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+8.1pp
Won
Under 155
77.2%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+7.7pp
Won
Under 157.5
81.0%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+6.3pp
Won
Ball State +22.5
99.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+6.2pp
Won
Overtime: no
95.6%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+4.5pp
-
Under 172.5
95.9%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.4pp
Won
Ball State under 92.5
95.7%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.2pp
Won
Under 162.5
88.0%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+4.1pp
Won
Under 167.5
92.8%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+4.1pp
Won
Ball State under 94.5
97.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.5pp
Won
Ball State under 90.5
93.7%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+3.2pp
Won
Ball State under 88.5
90.8%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+2.1pp
Won
Indiana State +22.5
90.8%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+1.2pp
Won
Ball State under 84.5
82.5%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
+1.0pp
Won
Ball State under 86.5
87.1%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
+1.0pp
Won
Ball State under 80.5
70.4%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.32
-
-
-
+1.0pp
Won
Ball State under 82.5
76.9%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+0.7pp
Won
Indiana State over 55.5
88.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-3.9pp
Won
Indiana State +17.5
82.0%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-4.1pp
Won
Indiana State over 56.5
86.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-5.3pp
Won
Indiana State over 57.5
84.7%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-6.4pp
Won
Over 127.5
82.8%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-6.8pp
Won
Indiana State over 58.5
82.2%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-8.2pp
Won
Indiana State over 59.5
79.6%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-9.8pp
Won
Indiana State over 60.5
76.6%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-11.7pp
Won
Over 132.5
73.9%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-11.7pp
Won
Indiana State over 61.5
73.5%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-13.6pp
Won
Indiana State over 62.5
70.2%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-15.4pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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