Indiana faces Tennessee Tech on 12 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the model favouring Indiana at 97% versus 3% for Tennessee Tech, a reflection of Indiana's undefeated 3-0 season, 88.7 points scored and 68.7 allowed per game, and a league position of 69. Tennessee Tech sits 2-1, scoring 100.7 and allowing 90.0 per game, ranked 163. Indiana's home record is 3-0, with recent victories over Syracuse 83-80, Bellarmine 92-69 and Eastern Illinois 91-57, while Tennessee Tech's road record is 0-1, having lost 88-106 to Mississippi St. on 2 November. The teams have met once before, with Indiana winning 89-59 on 25 November 2020. Pythia projects a 92-71 score, 162.8 total points, and a 43% chance of the over on the 165.5 line; the overtime probability is 1%. Indiana's dominant season numbers and recent home wins give the model a clear edge, and the projected outcome aligns with the statistical advantage.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Indiana winWon
96.6%fair 1.04
Best odds1.02
Implied93.8%
Edge+2.8pp
Tennessee Tech winLost
3.4%fair 29.55
Best odds26.00
Implied6.2%
Edge-2.8pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 11 Nov 07:02 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Indiana) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 162.5Actual: Under 162.5
Over 162.5
50.7%
@ 1.67-15.4pp
Under 162.5
49.3%
@ 2.85+15.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.67
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.37
Under
Bet365
2.85
Betano
2.60
Over/Under 167.5 · main lineActual: Under 167.5
Over 167.5
38.5%
@ 1.89-11.8pp
Under 167.5
61.5%
@ 2.10+11.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.89
Betano
1.87
Marathon Be
1.85
SBO
1.81
WilliamHill
1.80
Under
Bet365
2.10
WilliamHill
1.91
Pinnacle
1.91
Betano
1.90
Marathon Be
1.88
Over/Under 172.5Actual: Under 172.5
Over 172.5
27.3%
@ 2.27-17.5pp
Under 172.5
72.7%
@ 1.72+17.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.27
Bet365
2.20
Pinnacle
2.12
Under
Pinnacle
1.72
Bet365
1.60
Betano
1.55
📊 3. Team Totals
Indiana total 91Actual: Indiana under 91
Over 91
55.3%
Under 91
44.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Indiana total 95 · main lineActual: Indiana under 95
Over 95
38.7%
@ 1.85-11.5pp
Under 95
61.3%
@ 1.86+11.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
Under
Marathon Be
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Indiana total 99Actual: Indiana under 99
Over 99
24.0%
Under 99
76.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tennessee Tech total 66Push
Over 66
68.1%
Under 66
31.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tennessee Tech total 70 · main lineActual: Tennessee Tech under 70
Over 70
52.0%
@ 1.85+2.0pp
Under 70
48.0%
@ 1.85-2.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Tennessee Tech total 74Actual: Tennessee Tech under 74
Over 74
35.7%
Under 74
64.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Indiana -28Actual: Tennessee Tech +28
INDI -28
no forecast
@ 2.25
TENN +28
no forecast
@ 1.57
Best 5 market prices
INDI
Bet365
2.25
TENN
Bet365
1.57
Spread Indiana -25 · main lineActual: Tennessee Tech +25
INDI -25
38.0%
@ 1.96-11.1pp
TENN +25
62.0%
@ 1.89+11.1pp
Best 5 market prices
INDI
Pinnacle
1.96
Marathon Be
1.88
SBO
1.88
Bet365
1.88
TENN
Pinnacle
1.89
Marathon Be
1.83
Bet365
1.83
SBO
1.81
Spread Indiana -22Actual: Indiana -22
INDI -22
48.8%
@ 1.57-10.1pp
TENN +22
51.2%
@ 2.25+10.1pp
Best 5 market prices
INDI
Bet365
1.57
TENN
Bet365
2.25
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
IndianaTennessee Tech
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Indiana under 98.5
73.6%
1.72
Bet365
1.80
Pinnacle
1.75
Betano
1.62
-
-
+19.8pp
Won
Under 172
72.1%
1.68
Pinnacle
1.75
Marathon Bet
1.66
Bet365
1.64
-
-
+17.8pp
Won
Under 171.5
70.6%
1.67
Pinnacle
1.79
Bet365
1.66
Betano
1.62
Marathon Bet
1.62
-
+17.6pp
Won
Under 172.5
72.7%
1.62
Pinnacle
1.72
Bet365
1.60
Betano
1.55
-
-
+17.5pp
Won
Indiana under 100.5
79.8%
1.48
Bet365
1.50
1xBet
1.50
Betano
1.45
-
-
+17.3pp
Won
Indiana under 97.5
70.2%
1.84
BetVictor
1.88
Marathon Bet
1.87
WilliamHill
1.85
Betano
1.83
Bet365
1.83
+16.6pp
Won
Indiana under 99.5
76.8%
1.52
Betano
1.53
1xBet
1.50
-
-
-
+16.0pp
Won
Under 173
74.2%
1.57
Bet365
1.57
-
-
-
-
+15.3pp
Won
Under 175
78.1%
1.45
Bet365
1.45
-
-
-
-
+13.9pp
Won
Under 173.5
74.7%
1.52
Bet365
1.54
Betano
1.50
-
-
-
+13.7pp
Won
Under 174
76.2%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+13.7pp
Won
Under 176
79.9%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+13.6pp
Won
Under 174.5
76.6%
1.46
Bet365
1.47
Betano
1.44
-
-
-
+12.9pp
Won
Under 176.5
80.3%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
-
+12.7pp
Won
Under 175.5
78.5%
1.40
Bet365
1.41
Betano
1.39
-
-
-
+12.4pp
Won
Under 177
81.6%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+12.1pp
Won
Under 177.5
81.9%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+11.5pp
Won
Under 179.5
85.0%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+10.2pp
Won
Indiana (regulation)
96.0%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+6.5pp
Won
Tennessee Tech under 76.5
72.7%
1.34
Betano
1.34
-
-
-
-
+5.3pp
Won
Tennessee Tech under 79.5
81.6%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
+3.8pp
Won
Tennessee Tech under 77.5
75.9%
1.28
Bet365
1.31
1xBet
1.25
-
-
-
+3.6pp
Won
Indiana win
96.6%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+2.8pp
Won
Tennessee Tech over 52.5
96.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.7pp
Won
Tennessee Tech over 54.5
94.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.7pp
Won
Tennessee Tech under 80.5
84.1%
1.12
1xBet
1.12
-
-
-
-
+1.0pp
Won
Tennessee Tech over 56.5
92.0%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+0.8pp
Won
Indiana over 76.5
94.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.7pp
Won
Tennessee Tech over 55.5
93.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.6pp
Won
Indiana over 77.5
93.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.4pp
Won
Indiana over 78.5
91.8%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+0.3pp
Won
Tennessee Tech over 57.5
90.4%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-0.3pp
Won
Indiana -4.5
93.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-0.4pp
Won
Tennessee Tech over 64.5
72.7%
1.25
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-0.7pp
Won
Tennessee Tech over 58.5
88.6%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-0.8pp
Won
Indiana over 80.5
88.3%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-2.1pp
Won
Tennessee Tech over 60.5
84.3%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
-2.4pp
Won
Tennessee Tech over 59.5
86.5%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-2.5pp
Won
Indiana -9.5
85.8%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-3.3pp
Won
Tennessee Tech over 62.5
78.9%
1.12
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-4.0pp
Won
Over 144.5
87.2%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-4.3pp
Won
Indiana over 82.5
83.9%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-4.8pp
Won
Tennessee Tech over 61.5
81.7%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
-4.9pp
Won
Indiana -10.5
83.7%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-5.0pp
Won
Tennessee Tech over 63.5
75.9%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
-5.5pp
Won
Indiana -14.5
73.8%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
-6.7pp
Won
Indiana -15.5
70.9%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
-8.0pp
Won
Indiana over 84.5
78.5%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
-8.2pp
Won
Over 149.5
79.6%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-9.4pp
Won
Indiana over 86.5
72.1%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
-10.2pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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