Indiana faces Syracuse on 9 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the Pythia model naming Indiana the clear favourite at 87% because of their dominant 2-0 record and 91.5 points scored per game versus 63.0 allowed, placing them 51st in the league. Syracuse, also undefeated at 2-0, averages 88.0 points and concedes 53.5, ranking 30th, but their recent five-game stretch shows 2 wins and 3 losses, while Indiana's last five games include 3 wins and 2 losses. Indiana's home record is 2-0, with a 91.5-point average, and they have beaten Bellarmine 92-69 and Eastern Illinois 91-57 at home, though they lost to Northwestern 61-74 earlier this season. Syracuse's away record is 2-0, with a 88.0-point average, and they have beaten Central Connecticut State 102-49 and New Haven 74-58 at home, but fell to SMU 69-86 away. The only head-to-head meeting was Syracuse's 112-110 win over Indiana on 30 November 2021. Pythia projects a 83-70 score, a total of 152.3 points, and gives Indiana an 80% chance to cover the -4.0 spread and a 61% chance of the over on 147.5, with a 3% overtime probability. The game ends with Syracuse's 112-110 victory over Indiana in their last encounter.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Indiana winWon
86.9%fair 1.15
Best odds1.52
Implied67.5%
Edge+19.4pp
Syracuse winLost
13.1%fair 7.65
Best odds3.05
Implied32.5%
Edge-19.4pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 08 Nov 07:04 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Indiana) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 142Actual: Over 142
Over 142
74.0%
@ 1.47+10.5pp
Under 142
26.0%
@ 2.55-10.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.47
Under
Bet365
2.55
Over/Under 147 · main lineActual: Over 147
Over 147
62.8%
@ 1.92+13.1pp
Under 147
37.2%
@ 2.00-13.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.92
Pinnacle
1.91
Marathon Be
1.85
1xBet
1.75
SBO
1.74
Under
SBO
2.00
1xBet
1.97
Pinnacle
1.89
Marathon Be
1.86
Bet365
1.80
Over/Under 152Actual: Over 152
Over 152
50.4%
@ 2.60+14.6pp
Under 152
49.6%
@ 1.45-14.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.60
Under
Bet365
1.45
📊 3. Team Totals
Indiana total 73Actual: Indiana over 73
Over 73
84.1%
Under 73
15.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Indiana total 77 · main lineActual: Indiana over 77
Over 77
72.1%
@ 1.87+22.4pp
Under 77
27.9%
@ 1.85-22.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Indiana total 81Actual: Indiana over 81
Over 81
56.7%
Under 81
43.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Syracuse total 68Actual: Syracuse over 68
Over 68
56.6%
Under 68
43.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Syracuse total 72 · main lineActual: Syracuse over 72
Over 72
40.3%
@ 1.88-9.4pp
Under 72
59.7%
@ 1.85+9.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.88
1xBet
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.84
Marathon Be
1.82
Syracuse total 76Actual: Syracuse over 76
Over 76
25.8%
Under 76
74.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Indiana -8.5Actual: Syracuse +8.5
INDI -8.5
65.2%
@ 2.27+24.1pp
SYRA +8.5
34.8%
@ 1.58-24.1pp
Best 5 market prices
INDI
Betano
2.27
Bet365
2.22
SYRA
Bet365
1.58
Betano
1.55
Spread Indiana -5.5 · main lineActual: Syracuse +5.5
INDI -5.5
74.8%
@ 1.89+23.9pp
SYRA +5.5
25.2%
@ 2.00-23.9pp
Best 5 market prices
INDI
Pinnacle
1.89
Bet365
1.88
Betano
1.87
Marathon Be
1.83
BetVictor
1.83
SYRA
1xBet
2.00
Pinnacle
1.96
Bet365
1.93
Betano
1.91
Marathon Be
1.90
Spread Indiana -2.5Actual: Indiana -2.5
INDI -2.5
82.7%
@ 1.65+21.8pp
SYRA +2.5
17.3%
@ 2.44-21.8pp
Best 5 market prices
INDI
1xBet
1.65
Pinnacle
1.57
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.52
SYRA
Pinnacle
2.44
Bet365
2.40
Betano
2.35
1xBet
1.96
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
IndianaSyracuse
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Indiana over 75
78.6%
1.82
Marathon Bet
1.82
1xBet
1.82
-
-
-
+27.8pp
Won
Indiana -7
70.8%
2.04
Pinnacle
2.17
Bet365
2.00
Marathon Bet
1.96
-
-
+26.7pp
Lost
Indiana -2
85.0%
1.55
Pinnacle
1.63
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
+26.3pp
Won
Indiana over 74.5
79.3%
1.67
Pinnacle
1.76
Betano
1.57
-
-
-
+25.7pp
Won
Indiana -6.5
71.7%
2.02
1xBet
2.12
Pinnacle
2.08
Betano
2.00
Bet365
1.97
Marathon Bet
1.91
+25.6pp
Lost
Indiana -6
74.0%
1.92
Pinnacle
1.98
Bet365
1.92
Marathon Bet
1.87
-
-
+25.6pp
Lost
Indiana over 76
75.5%
1.84
Marathon Bet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.83
-
-
+25.5pp
Won
Indiana over 75.5
76.3%
1.81
Marathon Bet
1.88
Pinnacle
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
WilliamHill
1.80
Bet365
1.80
+25.3pp
Won
Indiana over 76.5
73.1%
1.89
Pinnacle
1.96
WilliamHill
1.91
BetVictor
1.91
1xBet
1.87
Bet365
1.86
+25.1pp
Won
Indiana -5.5
74.8%
1.84
Pinnacle
1.89
Bet365
1.88
Betano
1.87
Marathon Bet
1.83
BetVictor
1.83
+23.9pp
Lost
Indiana -5
77.1%
1.81
1xBet
1.98
Pinnacle
1.79
Marathon Bet
1.76
Bet365
1.71
-
+23.6pp
Lost
Indiana -3
82.3%
1.58
Pinnacle
1.62
Bet365
1.54
-
-
-
+23.3pp
Push
Indiana (regulation)
85.2%
1.46
1xBet
1.55
Betano
1.42
Marathon Bet
1.41
-
-
+22.6pp
Won
Indiana over 77
72.1%
1.86
Marathon Bet
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
+22.4pp
Won
Indiana -4
80.0%
1.74
SBO
1.87
1xBet
1.86
Marathon Bet
1.71
Pinnacle
1.66
Bet365
1.62
+22.3pp
Lost
Indiana -4.5
77.8%
1.76
SBO
1.96
BetVictor
1.80
Betano
1.75
1xBet
1.73
Pinnacle
1.72
+22.1pp
Lost
Indiana -2.5
82.7%
1.56
1xBet
1.65
Pinnacle
1.57
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.52
-
+21.8pp
Won
Indiana -1.5
85.4%
1.48
1xBet
1.57
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.43
-
-
+21.3pp
Won
Indiana -3.5
80.5%
1.68
BetVictor
1.78
SBO
1.78
1xBet
1.74
Marathon Bet
1.66
Pinnacle
1.61
+21.1pp
Lost
Indiana +3
91.1%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+20.8pp
Won
Indiana -1
86.7%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+20.1pp
Won
Indiana over 72.5
84.5%
1.40
Betano
1.40
-
-
-
-
+19.9pp
Won
Indiana over 73.5
82.0%
1.49
Betano
1.50
1xBet
1.50
Bet365
1.47
-
-
+19.5pp
Won
Indiana win
86.9%
1.41
SBO
1.52
Pinnacle
1.43
WilliamHill
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.40
+19.4pp
Won
Indiana +3.5
91.2%
1.27
Bet365
1.31
Betano
1.23
-
-
-
+18.2pp
Won
Indiana +1
88.1%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+18.1pp
Won
Indiana +1.5
88.2%
1.31
Betano
1.32
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
+17.5pp
Won
Indiana +4.5
92.5%
1.23
Betano
1.27
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
+16.8pp
Won
Indiana +2.5
90.0%
1.27
Betano
1.27
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
+16.6pp
Won
Indiana +2
89.8%
1.27
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
-
+16.5pp
Won
Indiana +6.5
94.6%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
+15.7pp
Won
Over 143
71.9%
1.55
Bet365
1.55
-
-
-
-
+12.1pp
Won
Over 143.5
70.4%
1.57
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.57
-
-
-
+11.5pp
Won
Over 142.5
72.5%
1.51
Bet365
1.52
Betano
1.50
-
-
-
+11.1pp
Won
Indiana +10.5
97.2%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
+11.1pp
Won
Over 142
74.0%
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
-
+10.5pp
Won
Over 141.5
74.5%
1.45
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.45
-
-
-
+10.5pp
Won
Over 140
77.9%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
-
+10.4pp
Won
Over 141
76.0%
1.41
Bet365
1.41
-
-
-
-
+10.3pp
Won
Over 140.5
76.4%
1.39
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
+9.9pp
Won
Over 139.5
78.3%
1.36
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
+9.8pp
Won
Over 139
79.7%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+9.3pp
Won
Indiana +9.5
96.7%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+9.2pp
Won
Over 138.5
80.1%
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
-
+8.7pp
Won
Indiana +15.5
98.8%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+8.6pp
Won
Indiana +14.5
98.6%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+7.8pp
Won
Overtime: no
97.3%
1.04
WilliamHill
1.05
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
+6.9pp
Won
Syracuse under 77.5
78.0%
1.28
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.29
Bet365
1.23
-
-
+6.4pp
Lost
Indiana +20.5
99.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.8pp
Won
Indiana +19.5
99.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.7pp
Won
Over 137.5
81.8%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+5.6pp
Won
Syracuse under 76.5
75.0%
1.30
Bet365
1.31
Betano
1.30
1xBet
1.30
-
-
+4.1pp
Lost
Over 127.5
93.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+4.0pp
Won
Syracuse under 75.5
71.8%
1.35
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
+4.0pp
Lost
Over 132.5
88.8%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+3.8pp
Won
Syracuse under 80.5
85.4%
1.13
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
+3.6pp
Won
Over 128.5
92.9%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+3.5pp
Won
Over 123.5
96.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.4pp
Won
Syracuse under 79.5
83.2%
1.16
1xBet
1.17
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
+3.2pp
Lost
Over 133.5
87.6%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+3.2pp
Won
Syracuse under 78.5
80.7%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
+2.9pp
Lost
Syracuse over 53.5
94.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.8pp
Won
Syracuse over 54.5
93.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.1pp
Won
Syracuse over 55.5
92.0%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+0.9pp
Won
Syracuse over 56.5
90.4%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-0.3pp
Won
Syracuse over 57.5
88.6%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-0.4pp
Won
Under 173.5
90.2%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-1.3pp
Won
Indiana under 96.5
91.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-1.8pp
Won
Syracuse over 58.5
86.6%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-2.1pp
Won
Syracuse over 59.5
84.3%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
-2.3pp
Won
Under 172.5
89.1%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-2.4pp
Won
Indiana under 95.5
90.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-2.5pp
Won
Syracuse over 61.5
79.0%
1.13
Bet365
1.14
1xBet
1.12
-
-
-
-3.2pp
Won
Syracuse over 63.5
72.8%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
-3.3pp
Won
Syracuse over 60.5
81.8%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-3.7pp
Won
Indiana under 93.5
86.4%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-4.7pp
Won
Syracuse over 62.5
76.0%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
-4.9pp
Won
Under 168.5
84.0%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-5.0pp
Won
Syracuse +24.5
84.7%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-5.5pp
Won
Under 167.5
82.5%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-6.5pp
Won
Indiana under 91.5
81.6%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-8.1pp
Won
Under 163.5
75.6%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-8.8pp
Won
Under 162.5
73.6%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-10.2pp
Lost
Syracuse +20.5
75.3%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
-11.3pp
Won
Indiana under 89.5
75.7%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-12.2pp
Won
Syracuse +19.5
72.5%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
-14.2pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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