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Indiana vs Michigan State Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 01 Mar 2026
Tip-off: 20:45
Final 64-77
0-0 37-45 0-0 27-32
Position#145
Record17-11
FormWWLLL
Points / game79.3
Allowed / game72.1
Indiana
USA
vs
Michigan State 🏆
USA
Position#29
Record23-5
FormWLWWW
Points / game78.4
Allowed / game66.4
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · Indiana v Michigan State
01 Mar 2026
INDI64
MICH77
10 Mar 2024
INDI65
MICH64
22 Jan 2023
INDI82
MICH69
20 Feb 2021
INDI71
MICH78
23 Jan 2020
INDI67
MICH63
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Indiana winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Michigan State winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

IndianaUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Michigan
#6
L
72-86
72
86
-14
A21/01
NCAA
Rutgers
#267
W
82-59
82
59
+23
A23/01
NCAA
Purdue
#31
W
72-67
72
67
+5
H28/01
NCAA
UCLA
#73
W
98-97 OT
98
97
+1
A31/01
NCAA
USC
#153
L
75-81
75
81
-6
A04/02
NCAA
Wisconsin
#57
W
78-77 OT
78
77
+1
H07/02
NCAA
Oregon
#293
W
92-74
92
74
+18
H10/02
NCAA
Illinois
#35
L
51-71
51
71
-20
A15/02
NCAA
Purdue
#31
L
64-93
64
93
-29
A21/02
NCAA
Northwestern
#251
L
68-72
68
72
-4
H25/02
NCAA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
0-0
29-40
0-0
43-46
0-0
47-32
0-0
35-27
0-0
40-29
0-0
32-38
0-0
30-36
0-0
46-40
0-0
30-35
0-0
45-46
0-0
36-30
0-0
36-42
0-0
36-30
0-0
56-44
0-0
31-38
0-0
20-33
0-0
29-46
0-0
35-47
0-0
42-33
0-0
26-39
152.9Avg total
75.2Scored
77.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (28)79.372.1151.5+7.261%
Season at home (17)84.367.9152.2+16.482%
Season away (11)71.678.7150.4-7.127%
Last 10 (10)75.277.7152.9-2.550%
Last 5 (5)70.677.4148.0-6.840%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (7)67.781.1148.9-13.414%
vs Similar (9)73.671.7145.2+1.967%
vs Weaker (14)86.467.1153.5+19.479%
This opponent (Michigan State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Michigan StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Oregon
#293
W
68-52
68
52
+16
A21/01
NCAA
Maryland
#305
W
91-48
91
48
+43
H24/01
NCAA
Rutgers
#267
W
88-79 OT
88
79
+9
A27/01
NCAA
Michigan
#6
L
71-83
71
83
-12
H31/01
NCAA
Minnesota
#235
L
73-76
73
76
-3
A05/02
NCAA
Illinois
#35
W
85-82 OT
85
82
+3
H08/02
NCAA
Wisconsin
#57
L
71-92
71
92
-21
A14/02
NCAA
UCLA
#73
W
82-59
82
59
+23
H18/02
NCAA
Ohio State
#104
W
66-60
66
60
+6
H22/02
NCAA
Purdue
#31
W
76-74
76
74
+2
A27/02
NCAA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
0-0
28-26
0-0
40-26
0-0
46-23
0-0
45-25
0-0
28-37
0-0
45-36
0-0
26-42
0-0
45-41
0-0
21-32
0-0
52-44
0-0
35-39
0-0
36-32
0-0
34-51
0-0
37-41
0-0
43-23
0-0
39-36
0-0
23-26
0-0
43-34
0-0
36-39
0-0
40-35
147.6Avg total
77.1Scored
70.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (28)78.466.4144.8+11.982%
Season at home (18)79.765.1144.8+14.689%
Season away (10)76.068.8144.8+7.270%
Last 10 (10)77.170.5147.6+6.670%
Last 5 (5)76.073.4149.4+2.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)72.077.0149.0-5.033%
vs Similar (8)68.466.2134.6+2.162%
vs Weaker ◀ (19)82.565.2147.7+17.395%
This opponent (Indiana) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-9-4+0+4+9Q1Q1: +0.0+0.0Q1: +0.0+0.0Q2Q2: +0.1+0.1Q2: -1.8-1.8Q3Q3: +0.0+0.0Q3: +0.0+0.0Q4Q4: -2.8-2.8Q4: +7.2+7.2
-9-4+0+4+9Q1Q1: +0.0+0.0Q1: +0.0+0.0Q2Q2: +0.1+0.1Q2: -1.8-1.8Q3Q3: +0.0+0.0Q3: +0.0+0.0Q4Q4: -2.8-2.8Q4: +7.2+7.2
IndianaMichigan State
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
IndianaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Michigan
#6
L
29-40
29
40
-11
A21/01
NCAA
Rutgers
#267
W
47-32
47
32
+15
A23/01
NCAA
Purdue
#31
W
40-29
40
29
+11
H28/01
NCAA
UCLA
#73
L
30-36
30
36
-6
A31/01
NCAA
USC
#153
L
30-35
30
35
-5
A04/02
NCAA
Wisconsin
#57
W
36-30
36
30
+6
H07/02
NCAA
Oregon
#293
W
36-30
36
30
+6
H10/02
NCAA
Illinois
#35
L
31-38
31
38
-7
A15/02
NCAA
Purdue
#31
L
29-46
29
46
-17
A21/02
NCAA
Northwestern
#251
W
42-33
42
33
+9
H25/02
NCAA
69.9Avg total
35.0Scored
34.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.032.071.0+7.063%-
Last 30 at home (18)43.228.972.1+14.389%-
Last 30 away (12)32.736.769.3-4.025%-
Last 10 (10)35.034.969.9+0.150%-
Last 5 (5)34.835.470.2-0.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (7)32.437.670.0-5.129%-
vs Similar (9)35.431.166.6+4.356%-
vs Weaker (14)44.629.874.4+14.886%-
This opponent (Michigan State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Michigan StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Oregon
#293
W
28-26
28
26
+2
A21/01
NCAA
Maryland
#305
W
46-23
46
23
+23
H24/01
NCAA
Rutgers
#267
L
28-37
28
37
-9
A27/01
NCAA
Michigan
#6
L
26-42
26
42
-16
H31/01
NCAA
Minnesota
#235
L
21-32
21
32
-11
A05/02
NCAA
Illinois
#35
L
35-39
35
39
-4
H08/02
NCAA
Wisconsin
#57
L
34-51
34
51
-17
A14/02
NCAA
UCLA
#73
W
43-23
43
23
+20
H18/02
NCAA
Ohio State
#104
L
23-26
23
26
-3
H22/02
NCAA
Purdue
#31
L
36-39
36
39
-3
A27/02
NCAA
65.8Avg total
32.0Scored
33.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.332.068.3+4.357%-
Last 30 at home (19)37.830.968.7+6.868%-
Last 30 away (11)33.633.867.5-0.236%-
Last 10 (10)32.033.865.8-1.830%-
Last 5 (5)34.235.669.8-1.420%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)31.737.369.0-5.733%-
vs Similar (8)31.833.865.5-2.025%-
vs Weaker ◀ (19)38.930.469.3+8.574%-
This opponent (Indiana) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
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⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Indiana wins
5
Michigan State wins
DateGameScore
14/01/26Michigan State v Indiana81-60
12/02/25Michigan State v Indiana67-71
10/03/24Indiana v Michigan State65-64
22/02/23Michigan State v Indiana80-65
22/01/23Indiana v Michigan State82-69
12/02/22Michigan State v Indiana76-61
03/03/21Michigan State v Indiana64-58
20/02/21Indiana v Michigan State71-78
24/01/20Indiana v Michigan State67-63
Indianalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
25/02/26HNorthwestern68-72
21/02/26APurdue64-93
15/02/26AIllinois51-71
10/02/26HOregon92-74
07/02/26HWisconsin78-77 OT
04/02/26AUSC75-81
31/01/26AUCLA98-97 OT
28/01/26HPurdue72-67
23/01/26ARutgers82-59
21/01/26AMichigan72-86
Michigan Statelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
27/02/26APurdue76-74
22/02/26HOhio State66-60
18/02/26HUCLA82-59
14/02/26AWisconsin71-92
08/02/26HIllinois85-82 OT
05/02/26AMinnesota73-76
31/01/26HMichigan71-83
27/01/26ARutgers88-79 OT
24/01/26HMaryland91-48
21/01/26AOregon68-52

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Indiana
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLL61%
HomeLWWWL82%
AwayWWLLL27%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games281711
Win %61%82%27%
Points / game79.384.371.6
Allowed / game72.167.978.7
Point differential+7.2+16.4-7.1
Avg total151.5152.2150.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+46%65%18%
Close games (≤5 pts) won75% (4)67% (3)100% (1)
Overtime %7%6%9%
Michigan State
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWW82%
HomeWLWWW89%
AwayWWLLW70%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games281810
Win %82%89%70%
Points / game78.479.776.0
Allowed / game66.465.168.8
Point differential+11.9+14.6+7.2
Avg total144.8144.8144.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+57%67%40%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (6)100% (2)50% (4)
Overtime %7%6%10%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Big Ten conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Michigan2927293%89.068.7+20.2
2 Nebraska2925486%78.665.4+13.1
3 Michigan State2823582%78.466.4+11.9
4 Illinois2922776%84.669.6+15.1
5 Purdue2922776%82.369.9+12.4
6 Iowa2920969%75.765.0+10.7
7 Wisconsin2920969%83.076.0+6.9
8 UCLA29191066%77.871.7+6.1
9 Ohio State29181162%79.673.2+6.4
10 USC29181162%79.276.9+2.2
11 Indiana28171161%79.372.1+7.2
12 Washington29141548%76.272.7+3.5
13 Minnesota29141548%71.068.2+2.8
14 Northwestern29131645%73.772.5+1.2
15 Penn State29121741%74.879.1-4.4
16 Rutgers29121741%70.275.4-5.2
17 Oregon29111838%71.373.7-2.4
18 Maryland29111838%70.777.1-6.4
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Indiana03702764
Michigan State04503277
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