Iowa hosts Virginia Tech on 10 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names Iowa the clear favourite, rating them 91% to win because their 2-0 record, 83.5 points per game and 50.5 allowed per game give them a dominant edge over Virginia Tech's 2-0 record, 92.0 points per game and 60.5 allowed per game; the model also notes Iowa's 33rd league position versus Virginia Tech's 37th. Iowa has won both of its games, scoring an average of 83.5 and allowing 50.5, while Virginia Tech has also won both of its games, scoring 92.0 and allowing 60.5; Iowa's home record is 2-0 with the same averages, and their last five games were 4-1, including a 91-47 win over Eastern Illinois and a 76-54 win over Lipscomb, while Virginia Tech's last five were 3-2, with wins over Mercer and Coppin State and a loss to Wake Forest. The teams have not met before, so no head-to-head history is available. Pythia projects an 81-66 score, a total of 146.7, and gives Iowa a 91% chance to win and a 9% chance for Virginia Tech; the home line is -4.5 with an 83% probability that Iowa covers, and the total line is 142.5 with a 60% probability of the over, while the chance of overtime is 2%. The next game will see Iowa's defense hold Virginia Tech to 66 points.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Iowa winLost
90.7%fair 1.10
Best odds1.50
Implied63.7%
Edge+27.0pp
Virginia Tech winWon
9.3%fair 10.71
Best odds2.75
Implied36.3%
Edge-27.0pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 09 Nov 07:05 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Iowa) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 137.5Actual: Over 137.5
Over 137.5
71.3%
@ 1.47+8.7pp
Under 137.5
28.7%
@ 2.47-8.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
Under
Betano
2.47
Over/Under 142.5 · main lineActual: Over 142.5
Over 142.5
60.0%
@ 1.89+9.3pp
Under 142.5
40.0%
@ 1.92-9.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.89
Betano
1.87
Marathon Be
1.83
1xBet
1.83
WilliamHill
1.80
Under
Bet365
1.92
Betano
1.91
WilliamHill
1.91
Marathon Be
1.90
BetVictor
1.85
Over/Under 147.5Actual: Over 147.5
Over 147.5
47.8%
@ 2.40+9.3pp
Under 147.5
52.2%
@ 1.50-9.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.40
Under
Betano
1.50
📊 3. Team Totals
Iowa total 69.5Actual: Iowa over 69.5
Over 69.5
87.6%
@ 1.40+23.1pp
Under 69.5
12.4%
@ 2.55-23.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.40
Under
Betano
2.55
Iowa total 73.5 · main lineActual: Iowa over 73.5
Over 73.5
77.5%
@ 1.85+27.2pp
Under 73.5
22.5%
@ 1.87-27.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Betano
1.83
Bet365
1.80
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
Betano
1.87
Bet365
1.86
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Iowa total 77.5Actual: Iowa over 77.5
Over 77.5
63.8%
@ 2.55+28.3pp
Under 77.5
36.2%
@ 1.40-28.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.55
Under
Betano
1.40
Virginia Tech total 65.5Actual: Virginia Tech over 65.5
Over 65.5
50.5%
@ 1.42-13.4pp
Under 65.5
49.5%
@ 2.52+13.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
Under
Betano
2.52
Virginia Tech total 69.5 · main lineActual: Virginia Tech over 69.5
Over 69.5
35.0%
@ 1.88-14.2pp
Under 69.5
65.0%
@ 1.85+14.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.88
Betano
1.88
Bet365
1.86
WilliamHill
1.85
Under
WilliamHill
1.85
Betano
1.83
Marathon Be
1.82
Bet365
1.80
Virginia Tech total 73.5Actual: Virginia Tech over 73.5
Over 73.5
21.9%
@ 2.60-12.9pp
Under 73.5
78.1%
@ 1.39+12.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.60
Under
Betano
1.39
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Iowa -7.5Actual: Virginia Tech +7.5
IOWA -7.5
75.5%
@ 2.32+35.8pp
VIRG +7.5
24.5%
@ 1.53-35.8pp
Best 5 market prices
IOWA
Betano
2.32
VIRG
Betano
1.53
Spread Iowa -4.5 · main lineActual: Virginia Tech +4.5
IOWA -4.5
83.3%
@ 1.90+33.3pp
VIRG +4.5
16.7%
@ 2.00-33.3pp
Best 5 market prices
IOWA
Betano
1.90
Marathon Be
1.87
Bet365
1.87
BetVictor
1.83
1xBet
1.73
VIRG
1xBet
2.00
Bet365
1.94
Betano
1.88
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.80
Spread Iowa -1.5Actual: Virginia Tech +1.5
IOWA -1.5
89.4%
@ 1.53+29.4pp
VIRG +1.5
10.6%
@ 2.30-29.4pp
Best 5 market prices
IOWA
Betano
1.53
VIRG
Betano
2.30
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
IowaVirginia Tech
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (Virginia Tech) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Virginia TechLast 10 – 2nd half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Clemson
#56
W
36-33
36
33
+3
A12/02
NCAA
Florida State
#167
L
27-53
27
53
-26
H14/02
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
L
32-36
32
36
-4
A18/02
NCAA
Wake Forest
#190
W
39-30
39
30
+9
H21/02
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
L
38-45
38
45
-7
A01/03
NCAA
Boston College
#308
L
37-39
37
39
-2
H04/03
NCAA
Virginia
#19
W
47-35
47
35
+12
A07/03
NCAA
Wake Forest
#190
W
41-37
41
37
+4
H10/03
NCAA
Coppin State
#285
W
43-27
43
27
+16
H04/11
NCAA
Mercer
#222
W
49-43
49
43
+6
H06/11
NCAA
76.7Avg total
38.9Scored
37.8Allowed
2nd half
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the half
Over 74.5
Last 30 (30)
39.3
37.9
77.2
+1.3
57%
57%
Last 30 at home (17)
38.4
36.1
74.5
+2.2
65%
53%
Last 30 away (13)
40.5
40.3
80.8
+0.2
46%
62%
Last 10 (10)
38.9
37.8
76.7
+1.1
60%
60%
Last 5 (5)
43.4
36.2
79.6
+7.2
80%
80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)
38.0
39.2
77.2
-1.2
38%
50%
vs Similar ◀ (14)
38.8
38.6
77.4
+0.1
64%
64%
vs Weaker (8)
41.4
35.4
76.8
+6.0
62%
50%
This opponent (Iowa) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: Iowa win
IOWA win
no forecast
@ 1.65
VIRG win
no forecast
@ 2.25
2nd half Spread Iowa -1.5 · main lineActual: Virginia Tech +1.5
IOWA -1.5
no forecast
@ 1.83
VIRG +1.5
no forecast
@ 1.91
2nd half Over/Under 74.5 · main lineActual: Over 74.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.93
Under
no forecast
@ 1.82
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Draw after regulation
IOWA
no forecast
@ 1.70
Draw
no forecast
@ 17.00
VIRG
no forecast
@ 2.30
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Iowa -8.5
72.6%
2.52
Betano
2.52
-
-
-
-
+36.0pp
Lost
Iowa -7.5
75.5%
2.32
Betano
2.32
-
-
-
-
+35.8pp
Lost
Iowa -6.5
78.3%
2.08
Betano
2.15
1xBet
2.02
-
-
-
+34.7pp
Lost
Iowa -5
82.9%
1.91
Marathon Bet
1.91
-
-
-
-
+34.4pp
Lost
Iowa -5.5
80.9%
1.97
Betano
2.05
1xBet
1.90
-
-
-
+34.3pp
Lost
Iowa -4
85.3%
1.80
Marathon Bet
1.80
-
-
-
-
+33.8pp
Lost
Iowa -4.5
83.3%
1.84
Betano
1.90
Marathon Bet
1.87
Bet365
1.87
BetVictor
1.83
1xBet
1.73
+33.3pp
Lost
Iowa -3.5
85.6%
1.73
Betano
1.78
Marathon Bet
1.73
1xBet
1.69
-
-
+32.6pp
Lost
Iowa -2.5
87.3%
1.61
Betano
1.62
1xBet
1.60
-
-
-
+31.1pp
Lost
Iowa (regulation)
89.3%
1.50
Betano
1.53
Marathon Bet
1.51
1xBet
1.47
-
-
+30.8pp
Lost
Iowa -1.5
89.4%
1.53
Betano
1.53
-
-
-
-
+29.4pp
Lost
Iowa over 75.5
71.0%
2.12
Betano
2.12
-
-
-
-
+28.5pp
Won
Iowa over 74.5
74.4%
2.00
Betano
2.00
-
-
-
-
+28.1pp
Won
Iowa over 73.5
77.5%
1.83
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.83
Betano
1.83
Bet365
1.80
+27.2pp
Won
Iowa win
90.7%
1.47
Betano
1.50
WilliamHill
1.50
Marathon Bet
1.48
Bet365
1.47
1xBet
1.45
+27.0pp
Lost
Iowa over 72.5
80.4%
1.70
Betano
1.70
-
-
-
-
+26.1pp
Won
Iowa +1.5
91.6%
1.40
Betano
1.40
-
-
-
-
+25.8pp
Lost
Iowa over 71.5
83.1%
1.57
Betano
1.57
-
-
-
-
+25.3pp
Won
Iowa +2.5
93.0%
1.34
Betano
1.34
-
-
-
-
+24.2pp
Lost
Iowa over 70.5
85.5%
1.47
Betano
1.47
-
-
-
-
+24.0pp
Won
Iowa over 69.5
87.6%
1.40
Betano
1.40
-
-
-
-
+23.1pp
Won
Iowa +3.5
93.9%
1.29
Betano
1.29
-
-
-
-
+22.3pp
Lost
Iowa +4.5
94.8%
1.24
Betano
1.24
-
-
-
-
+20.4pp
Lost
Virginia Tech under 71.5
71.9%
1.57
Betano
1.57
-
-
-
-
+14.1pp
Lost
Virginia Tech under 72.5
75.1%
1.47
Betano
1.47
-
-
-
-
+13.6pp
Lost
Virginia Tech under 73.5
78.1%
1.39
Betano
1.39
-
-
-
-
+12.9pp
Lost
Virginia Tech under 74.5
80.8%
1.33
Betano
1.33
-
-
-
-
+12.6pp
Lost
Over 137.5
71.3%
1.47
Betano
1.47
-
-
-
-
+8.7pp
Won
Over 136.5
73.4%
1.42
Betano
1.42
-
-
-
-
+8.3pp
Won
Overtime: no
97.9%
1.04
WilliamHill
1.06
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
+8.2pp
-
Over 135.5
75.4%
1.37
Betano
1.37
-
-
-
-
+8.1pp
Won
Virginia Tech over 54.5
86.7%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-4.0pp
Won
Virginia Tech over 56.5
82.0%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-6.7pp
Won
Virginia Tech over 58.5
76.2%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-9.9pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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