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Italy vs Latvia Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 07 Sep 2023
Tip-off: 08:45
Final 82-87
26-18 16-28 18-21 22-20
Position#17
Record12-4
FormWLWWW
Points / game85.2
Allowed / game81.1
vs
Latvia 🏆
Position#3
Record19-3
FormWLWWL
Points / game85.1
Allowed / game73.5
EuropeWorld CupWorld Cup - Semi-finals
Other2023
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Italy winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Latvia winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

ItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
France
#7
L
85-93 OT
85
93
-8
A14/09
EuroBasket
Spain
#7
L
84-88 OT
84
88
-4
H11/11
World Cup
Georgia
#32
W
85-84
85
84
+1
A14/11
World Cup
Ukraine
#34
W
85-75
85
75
+10
H23/02
World Cup
Spain
#7
W
72-68
72
68
+4
A26/02
World Cup
Angola
#19
W
81-67
81
67
+14
A25/08
World Cup
Dominican Republic
#12
L
82-87
82
87
-5
H27/08
World Cup
Philippines
#44
W
90-83
90
83
+7
A29/08
World Cup
Serbia
#13
W
78-76
78
76
+2
A01/09
World Cup
Puerto Rico
#10
W
73-57
73
57
+16
H03/09
World Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-27
11-11
31-18
15-21
18-22
15-14
16-19
21-15
24-19
19-21
17-18
25-26
23-21
20-22
15-14
27-18
13-16
20-13
19-15
20-24
23-17
20-23
18-17
20-10
19-13
20-25
17-31
26-18
20-23
28-16
25-21
17-23
23-19
17-23
19-20
19-14
25-15
14-21
12-11
22-10
159.3Avg total
81.5Scored
77.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (16)85.281.1166.3+4.175%
Season at home (7)83.678.7162.3+4.971%
Season away (9)86.483.0169.4+3.478%
Last 10 (10)81.577.8159.3+3.770%
Last 5 (5)80.874.0154.8+6.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (9)81.281.9163.1-0.744%
vs Similar (14)87.584.7172.2+2.864%
vs Weaker (7)86.972.1159.0+14.7100%
This opponent (Latvia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
LatviaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Greece
#25
W
80-60
80
60
+20
A11/11
World Cup
Great Britain
#75
W
79-63
79
63
+16
H14/11
World Cup
Turkey
#50
W
83-74
83
74
+9
A24/02
World Cup
Greece
#25
W
67-57
67
57
+10
H27/02
World Cup
Lebanon
#18
W
109-70
109
70
+39
H25/08
World Cup
France
#8
W
88-86
88
86
+2
A27/08
World Cup
Canada
#4
L
75-101
75
101
-26
A29/08
World Cup
Spain
#7
W
74-69
74
69
+5
A01/09
World Cup
Brazil
#23
W
104-84
104
84
+20
A03/09
World Cup
Germany
#2
L
79-81
79
81
-2
A06/09
World Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
16-13
20-15
27-17
17-15
22-17
18-11
18-12
21-23
26-23
23-23
21-7
13-21
18-8
15-24
19-9
15-16
27-17
28-13
27-18
27-22
26-33
23-20
13-21
26-12
23-13
19-30
15-24
18-34
17-16
12-16
18-26
27-11
22-20
23-22
36-21
23-21
16-13
18-23
25-26
20-19
158.3Avg total
83.8Scored
74.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (22)85.173.5158.6+11.786%
Season at home (9)83.769.2152.9+14.4100%
Season away (13)86.276.4162.5+9.877%
Last 10 (10)83.874.5158.3+9.380%
Last 5 (5)84.084.2168.2-0.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)73.778.7152.3-5.017%
vs Similar (9)85.177.4162.6+7.778%
vs Weaker ◀ (15)85.471.2156.6+14.287%
This opponent (Italy) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: +1.6+1.6Q1: +4.0+4.0Q2Q2: -0.5-0.5Q2: +0.2+0.2Q3Q3: +0.5+0.5Q3: +3.8+3.8Q4Q4: +3.3+3.3Q4: +1.3+1.3
-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: +1.6+1.6Q1: +4.0+4.0Q2Q2: -0.5-0.5Q2: +0.2+0.2Q3Q3: +0.5+0.5Q3: +3.8+3.8Q4Q4: +3.3+3.3Q4: +1.3+1.3
ItalyLatvia
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
ItalyLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
France
#7
L
31-38
31
38
-7
A14/09
EuroBasket
Spain
#7
L
33-36
33
36
-3
H11/11
World Cup
Georgia
#32
W
43-40
43
40
+3
A14/11
World Cup
Ukraine
#34
D
43-43
43
43
+0
H23/02
World Cup
Spain
#7
W
33-29
33
29
+4
A26/02
World Cup
Angola
#19
W
43-40
43
40
+3
A25/08
World Cup
Dominican Republic
#12
W
39-38
39
38
+1
H27/08
World Cup
Philippines
#44
W
48-39
48
39
+9
A29/08
World Cup
Serbia
#13
L
40-42
40
42
-2
A01/09
World Cup
Puerto Rico
#10
W
39-36
39
36
+3
H03/09
World Cup
77.3Avg total
39.2Scored
38.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)43.040.383.3+2.763%-
Last 30 at home (14)44.339.183.4+5.179%-
Last 30 away (16)41.941.383.2+0.650%-
Last 10 (10)39.238.177.3+1.160%-
Last 5 (5)41.839.080.8+2.880%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (9)41.240.781.9+0.644%-
vs Similar (14)41.940.782.6+1.264%-
vs Weaker (7)47.439.086.4+8.486%-
This opponent (Latvia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
LatviaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Greece
#25
W
36-28
36
28
+8
A11/11
World Cup
Great Britain
#75
W
40-28
40
28
+12
H14/11
World Cup
Turkey
#50
W
49-46
49
46
+3
A24/02
World Cup
Greece
#25
W
33-32
33
32
+1
H27/02
World Cup
Lebanon
#18
W
55-30
55
30
+25
H25/08
World Cup
France
#8
L
49-53
49
53
-4
A27/08
World Cup
Canada
#4
L
42-43
42
43
-1
A29/08
World Cup
Spain
#7
L
29-32
29
32
-3
A01/09
World Cup
Brazil
#23
W
45-42
45
42
+3
A03/09
World Cup
Germany
#2
L
34-36
34
36
-2
A06/09
World Cup
78.2Avg total
41.2Scored
37.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.335.777.0+5.773%-
Last 30 at home (13)40.435.075.4+5.485%-
Last 30 away (17)42.136.278.2+5.965%-
Last 10 (10)41.237.078.2+4.260%-
Last 5 (5)39.841.281.0-1.420%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)37.337.274.5+0.250%-
vs Similar (9)40.239.679.8+0.756%-
vs Weaker ◀ (15)43.632.776.3+10.993%-
This opponent (Italy) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Italy wins
0
Latvia wins
No previous meetings.
Italylast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
03/09/23HPuerto Rico73-57
01/09/23ASerbia78-76
29/08/23APhilippines90-83
27/08/23HDominican Republic82-87
25/08/23AAngola81-67
26/02/23ASpain72-68
23/02/23HUkraine85-75
14/11/22AGeorgia85-84
11/11/22HSpain84-88 OT
14/09/22AFrance85-93 OT
Latvialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
06/09/23AGermany79-81
03/09/23ABrazil104-84
01/09/23ASpain74-69
29/08/23ACanada75-101
27/08/23AFrance88-86
25/08/23HLebanon109-70
27/02/23HGreece67-57
24/02/23ATurkey83-74
14/11/22HGreat Britain79-63
11/11/22AGreece80-60

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Italy
World Cup 2023
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWW75%
HomeWLWLW71%
AwayWWWWW78%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1679
Win %75%71%78%
Points / game85.283.686.4
Allowed / game81.178.783.0
Point differential+4.1+4.9+3.4
Avg total166.3162.3169.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+25%29%22%
Close games (≤5 pts) won57% (7)33% (3)75% (4)
Overtime %12%14%11%
Latvia
World Cup 2023
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWL86%
HomeWWWWW100%
AwayWLWWL77%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games22913
Win %86%100%77%
Points / game85.183.786.2
Allowed / game73.569.276.4
Point differential+11.7+14.4+9.8
Avg total158.6152.9162.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+45%56%38%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (6)100% (1)60% (5)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Russia330100%87.070.7+16.3
2 Canada1816289%97.270.9+26.2
3 Germany1816289%83.872.1+11.7
4 Latvia2219386%85.173.5+11.7
5 Australia1714382%86.063.4+22.6
6 South Sudan1714382%82.370.8+11.5
7 Spain1713476%83.969.5+14.4
8 France1713476%81.166.8+14.2
9 Lithuania1713476%80.171.2+8.9
10 Italy1612475%85.281.1+4.1
11 Puerto Rico1511473%83.581.0+2.5
12 Serbia1813572%86.776.5+10.2
13 New Zealand1410471%91.675.2+16.4
14 Dominican Republic1712571%82.976.8+6.1
15 Montenegro2014670%77.372.0+5.3
16 Belarus128467%80.267.2+13.0
17 Argentina128467%78.772.1+6.6
18 Lebanon1711665%86.679.4+7.3
19 Angola1711665%73.966.8+7.1
20 China1711665%78.774.4+4.3
21 Ivory Coast1711665%75.172.0+3.1
22 Finland1711665%82.581.4+1.2
23 Slovenia1811761%84.781.5+3.2
24 Brazil159660%85.974.5+11.5
25 Greece159660%77.576.1+1.5
26 Mexico159660%83.182.5+0.5
27 Egypt1710759%76.169.2+6.8
28 Japan1710759%78.476.7+1.7
29 Senegal127558%72.566.0+6.5
30 Nigeria127558%69.564.5+5.0
31 Iceland2112957%80.880.7+0.1
32 Georgia179853%79.179.8-0.7
33 Sweden168850%81.175.8+5.4
34 Ukraine126650%80.277.2+3.0
35 Belgium126650%72.069.4+2.6
36 Tunisia126650%64.362.5+1.8
37 Jordan168850%78.377.0+1.3
38 Portugal168850%70.971.6-0.7
39 Switzerland42250%62.263.2-1.0
40 Uruguay105550%71.974.2-2.3
41 Bosnia & Herzegovina126650%77.282.2-5.0
42 Hungary126650%72.679.5-6.9
43 Venezuela178947%76.472.5+3.8
44 Philippines157847%80.079.1+0.9
45 Cape Verde167944%72.474.8-2.3
46 Saudi Arabia125742%68.275.0-6.8
47 Kazakhstan125742%64.972.7-7.8
48 D.R. Congo125742%57.064.9-7.9
49 Mali52340%42.047.2-5.2
50 Turkey114736%77.575.1+2.4
51 Iran1761135%69.273.1-3.9
52 Israel124833%78.779.0-0.3
53 Poland62433%74.077.0-3.0
54 Cameroon124833%64.468.2-3.8
55 Estonia124833%72.581.4-8.9
56 Kosovo62433%75.885.2-9.3
57 Slovakia1651131%68.976.7-7.8
58 Colombia103730%77.091.8-14.8
59 Guinea123925%66.070.6-4.6
60 Czech Republic123925%73.280.7-7.5
61 Panama123925%68.578.7-10.2
62 Bahamas123925%77.691.9-14.3
63 North Macedonia102820%64.375.8-11.5
64 Luxembourg102820%76.388.1-11.8
65 Bulgaria61517%74.379.2-4.8
66 Croatia61517%77.083.2-6.2
67 Rwanda61517%56.765.2-8.5
68 Chile61517%66.075.7-9.7
69 Syria61517%69.379.3-10.0
70 Central African Republic61517%61.275.2-14.0
71 Uganda1221017%61.177.8-16.7
72 Albania61517%65.282.2-17.0
73 Bahrain1221017%63.483.7-20.2
74 Cyprus61517%59.080.2-21.2
75 Great Britain101910%69.783.2-13.5
76 Cuba4040%65.072.8-7.8
77 Netherlands110110%71.081.5-10.5
78 Denmark4040%69.584.5-15.0
79 Romania4040%69.889.5-19.8
80 India100100%61.189.5-28.4
81 Chinese Taipei6060%61.090.7-29.7
82 United States Virgin Islands6060%64.796.2-31.5
83 Indonesia6060%58.590.2-31.7
84 Paraguay6060%55.086.8-31.8
85 Kenya6060%42.574.8-32.3
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 85 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Italy2616182282
Latvia1828212087
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