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Italy vs Spain Result & Analysis

Date: Fri 11 Nov 2022
Tip-off: 20:00
Final 84-88 (OT)
18-22 15-14 16-19 21-15 14-18
Position#17
Record5-2
FormLWWWL
Points / game90.4
Allowed / game87.6
vs
Spain 🏆
Position#7
Record7-1
FormWWWWW
Points / game84.6
Allowed / game65.4
EuropeWorld CupRound 9
Other2023
Meetings · Italy v Spain
02 Sep 2025
ITAL67
SPAI63
11 Nov 2022
ITAL84
SPAI88
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Italy winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Spain winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

ItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Czech Republic
#4
W
96-80
96
80
+16
H20/08
DBB Supercup
Ukraine
#34
W
97-89
97
89
+8
A24/08
World Cup
Georgia
#32
W
91-84
91
84
+7
H27/08
World Cup
Estonia
#34
W
83-62
83
62
+21
H02/09
EuroBasket
Greece
#2
L
81-85
81
85
-4
A03/09
EuroBasket
Ukraine
#13
L
73-84
73
84
-11
A05/09
EuroBasket
Croatia
#12
W
81-76
81
76
+5
H06/09
EuroBasket
Great Britain
#14
W
90-56
90
56
+34
A08/09
EuroBasket
Serbia
#3
W
94-86
94
86
+8
A11/09
EuroBasket
France
#7
L
85-93 OT
85
93
-8
A14/09
EuroBasket
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-18
24-18
26-23
21-21
19-19
15-26
38-22
25-22
25-19
18-19
23-28
25-18
21-18
31-15
17-19
14-10
17-23
23-24
17-24
24-14
21-16
21-22
15-19
16-27
22-17
20-17
13-25
26-17
29-20
18-17
20-17
23-2
20-28
25-23
21-17
28-18
20-27
11-11
31-18
15-21
166.6Avg total
87.1Scored
79.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)90.487.6178.0+2.971%
Season at home (3)87.081.3168.3+5.7100%
Season away (4)93.092.2185.2+0.850%
Last 10 (10)87.179.5166.6+7.670%
Last 5 (5)84.679.0163.6+5.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (5)83.287.6170.8-4.420%
vs Similar (11)87.584.5172.1+3.064%
vs Weaker (14)87.878.1165.9+9.786%
This opponent (Spain) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
SpainLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Netherlands
#77
W
86-64
86
64
+22
A27/08
World Cup
Bulgaria
#36
W
114-87
114
87
+27
H01/09
EuroBasket
Georgia
#26
W
90-64
90
64
+26
A03/09
EuroBasket
Belgium
#5
L
73-83
73
83
-10
H04/09
EuroBasket
Montenegro
#24
W
82-65
82
65
+17
A06/09
EuroBasket
Turkey
#22
W
72-69
72
69
+3
A07/09
EuroBasket
Lithuania
#20
W
102-94 OT
102
94
+8
H10/09
EuroBasket
Finland
#16
W
100-90
100
90
+10
H13/09
EuroBasket
Germany
#17
W
96-91
96
91
+5
A16/09
EuroBasket
France
#7
W
88-76
88
76
+12
H18/09
EuroBasket
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
17-24
23-8
28-18
18-14
28-17
29-18
32-31
25-21
18-16
22-15
31-16
19-17
11-15
22-17
21-25
19-26
27-17
26-14
14-17
15-17
17-18
21-16
18-16
16-19
19-20
21-25
23-23
20-15
19-30
24-22
30-15
27-23
27-24
19-27
19-20
31-20
23-14
24-23
19-20
22-19
168.6Avg total
90.3Scored
78.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (8)84.665.4150.0+19.288%
Season at home (4)86.059.0145.0+27.0100%
Season away (4)83.271.8155.0+11.575%
Last 10 (10)90.378.3168.6+12.090%
Last 5 (5)91.684.0175.6+7.6100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)89.581.8171.2+7.875%
vs Similar (1)73.083.0156.0-10.00%
vs Weaker ◀ (25)87.273.3160.6+13.988%
This opponent (Italy) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +1.4+1.4Q1: +1.1+1.1Q2Q2: +1.4+1.4Q2: +4.6+4.6Q3Q3: +0.9+0.9Q3: +3.4+3.4Q4Q4: +4.7+4.7Q4: +2.1+2.1
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +1.4+1.4Q1: +1.1+1.1Q2Q2: +1.4+1.4Q2: +4.6+4.6Q3Q3: +0.9+0.9Q3: +3.4+3.4Q4Q4: +4.7+4.7Q4: +2.1+2.1
ItalySpain
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
ItalyLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Czech Republic
#4
W
49-36
49
36
+13
H20/08
DBB Supercup
Ukraine
#34
L
34-45
34
45
-11
A24/08
World Cup
Georgia
#32
W
43-38
43
38
+5
H27/08
World Cup
Estonia
#34
W
52-33
52
33
+19
H02/09
EuroBasket
Greece
#2
L
40-47
40
47
-7
A03/09
EuroBasket
Ukraine
#13
W
42-38
42
38
+4
A05/09
EuroBasket
Croatia
#12
W
42-34
42
34
+8
H06/09
EuroBasket
Great Britain
#14
W
47-37
47
37
+10
A08/09
EuroBasket
Serbia
#3
L
45-51
45
51
-6
A11/09
EuroBasket
France
#7
L
31-38
31
38
-7
A14/09
EuroBasket
82.2Avg total
42.5Scored
39.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)43.041.284.1+1.857%-
Last 30 at home (15)44.739.984.7+4.873%-
Last 30 away (15)41.242.483.6-1.240%-
Last 10 (10)42.539.782.2+2.860%-
Last 5 (5)41.439.681.0+1.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (5)44.443.888.2+0.640%-
vs Similar (11)41.139.880.9+1.364%-
vs Weaker (14)43.941.385.2+2.657%-
This opponent (Spain) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
SpainLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Netherlands
#77
W
40-32
40
32
+8
A27/08
World Cup
Bulgaria
#36
W
57-35
57
35
+22
H01/09
EuroBasket
Georgia
#26
W
40-31
40
31
+9
A03/09
EuroBasket
Belgium
#5
W
33-32
33
32
+1
H04/09
EuroBasket
Montenegro
#24
W
53-31
53
31
+22
A06/09
EuroBasket
Turkey
#22
W
38-34
38
34
+4
A07/09
EuroBasket
Lithuania
#20
L
40-45
40
45
-5
H10/09
EuroBasket
Finland
#16
L
43-52
43
52
-9
H13/09
EuroBasket
Germany
#17
L
46-51
46
51
-5
A16/09
EuroBasket
France
#7
W
47-37
47
37
+10
H18/09
EuroBasket
81.7Avg total
43.7Scored
38.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)43.235.078.2+8.277%-
Last 30 at home (17)43.434.878.2+8.576%-
Last 30 away (13)43.035.278.2+7.877%-
Last 10 (10)43.738.081.7+5.770%-
Last 5 (5)42.843.886.6-1.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)41.036.577.5+4.575%-
vs Similar (1)33.032.065.0+1.0100%-
vs Weaker ◀ (25)44.034.878.8+9.176%-
This opponent (Italy) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Italy wins
1
Spain wins
DateGameScore
06/09/19Spain v Italy67-60
Italylast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/09/22AFrance85-93 OT
11/09/22ASerbia94-86
08/09/22AGreat Britain90-56
06/09/22HCroatia81-76
05/09/22AUkraine73-84
03/09/22AGreece81-85
02/09/22HEstonia83-62
27/08/22HGeorgia91-84
24/08/22AUkraine97-89
20/08/22HCzech Republic96-80
Spainlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
18/09/22HFrance88-76
16/09/22AGermany96-91
13/09/22HFinland100-90
10/09/22HLithuania102-94 OT
07/09/22ATurkey72-69
06/09/22AMontenegro82-65
04/09/22HBelgium73-83
03/09/22AGeorgia90-64
01/09/22HBulgaria114-87
27/08/22ANetherlands86-64

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Italy
World Cup 2023
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWW71%
HomeWWW100%
AwayLLWW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games734
Win %71%100%50%
Points / game90.487.093.0
Allowed / game87.681.392.2
Point differential+2.9+5.7+0.8
Avg total178.0168.3185.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+14%0%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)100% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %14%0%25%
Spain
World Cup 2023
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWW88%
HomeWWWW100%
AwayWLWW75%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games844
Win %88%100%75%
Points / game84.686.083.2
Allowed / game65.459.071.8
Point differential+19.2+27.0+11.5
Avg total150.0145.0155.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+75%100%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)-100% (1)
Overtime %12%0%25%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Canada990100%101.667.8+33.8
2 Australia990100%90.259.2+31.0
3 Russia330100%87.070.7+16.3
4 Ivory Coast990100%76.466.2+10.2
5 Latvia1312192%85.871.6+14.2
6 Lebanon98189%87.364.8+22.6
7 South Sudan98189%75.762.2+13.4
8 Germany98189%80.669.6+11.0
9 Spain87188%84.665.4+19.2
10 New Zealand76186%90.763.3+27.4
11 France97278%82.162.7+19.4
12 Egypt97278%74.459.0+15.4
13 China97278%80.265.8+14.4
14 Angola97278%73.661.2+12.3
15 Venezuela97278%76.365.6+10.8
16 Lithuania97278%78.373.6+4.8
17 Finland97278%78.875.7+3.1
18 Montenegro1310377%77.971.3+6.6
19 Italy75271%90.487.6+2.9
20 Uruguay75271%74.672.0+2.6
21 Belarus128467%80.267.2+13.0
22 Dominican Republic96367%82.372.4+9.9
23 Senegal96367%72.664.0+8.6
24 Argentina96367%78.470.9+7.6
25 Slovenia96367%84.079.7+4.3
26 Mexico64267%84.281.0+3.2
27 Serbia96367%77.974.8+3.1
28 Puerto Rico64267%77.074.8+2.2
29 Georgia96367%79.678.2+1.3
30 Brazil85362%84.671.0+13.6
31 Greece85362%78.275.2+3.0
32 Iceland1811761%82.481.0+1.4
33 Philippines74357%75.674.0+1.6
34 Iran95456%77.971.3+6.6
35 Nigeria95456%71.265.2+6.0
36 Belgium95456%72.468.9+3.6
37 Jordan95456%73.971.0+2.9
38 Tunisia95456%63.061.6+1.4
39 Kazakhstan95456%67.369.1-1.8
40 Bosnia & Herzegovina95456%80.082.4-2.4
41 Sweden137654%83.876.8+7.0
42 Cape Verde84450%71.168.8+2.4
43 Portugal168850%70.971.6-0.7
44 Switzerland42250%62.263.2-1.0
45 Ukraine94544%81.879.2+2.6
46 Saudi Arabia94544%69.072.7-3.7
47 Japan94544%71.776.0-4.3
48 D.R. Congo94544%55.060.4-5.4
49 Hungary94544%70.879.9-9.1
50 Colombia73443%79.689.6-10.0
51 Mali52340%42.047.2-5.2
52 Turkey83538%77.576.5+1.0
53 Israel93633%77.177.9-0.8
54 Poland62433%74.077.0-3.0
55 Czech Republic93633%75.680.6-5.0
56 Kosovo62433%75.885.2-9.3
57 Slovakia1651131%68.976.7-7.8
58 Panama82625%64.673.8-9.1
59 Bahamas82625%79.592.6-13.1
60 Cameroon92722%61.667.8-6.2
61 Uganda92722%65.974.9-9.0
62 Guinea92722%63.973.3-9.4
63 Estonia92722%72.081.9-9.9
64 Bahrain92722%63.482.9-19.4
65 North Macedonia102820%64.375.8-11.5
66 Luxembourg102820%76.388.1-11.8
67 Bulgaria61517%74.379.2-4.8
68 Croatia61517%77.083.2-6.2
69 Rwanda61517%56.765.2-8.5
70 Chile61517%66.075.7-9.7
71 Syria61517%69.379.3-10.0
72 Central African Republic61517%61.275.2-14.0
73 Albania61517%65.282.2-17.0
74 Cyprus61517%59.080.2-21.2
75 Great Britain71614%70.380.6-10.3
76 Cuba4040%65.072.8-7.8
77 Netherlands8080%71.681.5-9.9
78 Denmark4040%69.584.5-15.0
79 Romania4040%69.889.5-19.8
80 Chinese Taipei6060%61.090.7-29.7
81 India7070%59.189.0-29.9
82 United States Virgin Islands6060%64.796.2-31.5
83 Indonesia6060%58.590.2-31.7
84 Paraguay6060%55.086.8-31.8
85 Kenya6060%42.574.8-32.3
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 85 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
Italy181516211484
Spain221419151888
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