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Italy vs Lithuania Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 29 Nov 2018
Tip-off: 19:15
Final 70-65
20-24 22-11 11-18 17-12
Position#14
Record6-2
FormLLWWW
Points / game80.5
Allowed / game68.8
Italy 🏆
vs
Position#4
Record8-0
FormWLLWW
Points / game86.4
Allowed / game66.0
EuropeWorld Cup
Other2019
Meetings · Italy v Lithuania
05 Jul 2026
ITAL87
LITH84
29 Nov 2018
ITAL70
LITH65
27 Aug 2013
ITAL63
LITH79
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Italy winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Lithuania winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

ItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Romania
#58
W
75-70
75
70
+5
H24/11
World Cup
Croatia
#52
W
80-64
80
64
+16
A26/11
World Cup
Netherlands
#50
W
80-62
80
62
+18
H23/02
World Cup
Romania
#58
W
101-50
101
50
+51
A26/02
World Cup
Croatia
#52
L
72-78
72
78
-6
H28/06
World Cup
Netherlands
#50
L
66-81
66
81
-15
A01/07
World Cup
Czech Republic
#18
L
80-87
80
87
-7
H07/09
Friendly International
Germany
#56
W
71-62
71
62
+9
H08/09
Friendly International
Poland
#19
W
101-82
101
82
+19
H14/09
World Cup
Hungary
#33
W
69-63
69
63
+6
A17/09
World Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
26-15
16-13
17-15
16-27
15-23
20-9
25-15
20-17
26-13
19-21
18-14
17-14
35-12
12-13
29-11
25-14
24-21
15-20
13-24
20-13
15-19
15-19
19-20
17-23
15-23
25-25
15-17
25-22
16-26
20-8
24-17
11-11
25-25
29-27
19-13
28-17
20-14
19-14
13-23
17-12
149.4Avg total
79.5Scored
69.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (8)80.568.8149.2+11.875%
Season at home (4)82.073.0155.0+9.075%
Season away (4)79.064.5143.5+14.575%
Last 10 (10)79.569.9149.4+9.670%
Last 5 (5)77.475.0152.4+2.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (3)70.079.7149.7-9.733%
vs Similar (4)72.074.5146.5-2.525%
vs Weaker (16)78.565.4143.9+13.181%
This opponent (Lithuania) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
LithuaniaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Kosovo
#68
W
99-61
99
61
+38
A24/11
World Cup
Poland
#19
W
75-55
75
55
+20
H26/11
World Cup
Hungary
#33
W
80-75
80
75
+5
H23/02
World Cup
Kosovo
#68
W
106-50
106
50
+56
H26/02
World Cup
Poland
#19
W
79-61
79
61
+18
A28/06
World Cup
Hungary
#33
W
73-50
73
50
+23
A01/07
World Cup
Finland
#15
L
75-103
75
103
-28
A05/09
Friendly International
Latvia
#43
L
80-97
80
97
-17
H09/09
Friendly International
Croatia
#52
W
84-83
84
83
+1
A14/09
World Cup
Netherlands
#50
W
95-93 OT
95
93
+2
H17/09
World Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-21
15-14
25-12
39-14
13-17
25-8
18-14
19-16
19-19
22-18
16-16
23-22
28-19
20-8
26-12
32-11
14-17
22-8
17-22
26-14
19-14
18-10
18-13
18-13
21-26
23-21
7-31
24-25
19-23
18-22
19-23
24-29
21-21
22-15
20-19
21-28
24-16
15-23
18-16
18-20
157.4Avg total
84.6Scored
72.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (8)86.466.0152.4+20.4100%
Season at home (4)89.068.2157.2+20.8100%
Season away (4)83.863.8147.5+20.0100%
Last 10 (10)84.672.8157.4+11.880%
Last 5 (5)81.485.2166.6-3.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)73.189.0162.1-15.922%
vs Similar (4)76.277.0153.2-0.850%
vs Weaker ◀ (17)83.767.0150.7+16.794%
This opponent (Italy) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: +2.6+2.6Q1: +0.5+0.5Q2Q2: +2.1+2.1Q2: +5.3+5.3Q3Q3: +2.3+2.3Q3: +0.6+0.6Q4Q4: +2.6+2.6Q4: +5.2+5.2
ItalyLithuania
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
ItalyLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Romania
#58
W
42-28
42
28
+14
H24/11
World Cup
Croatia
#52
W
35-32
35
32
+3
A26/11
World Cup
Netherlands
#50
W
45-34
45
34
+11
H23/02
World Cup
Romania
#58
W
47-25
47
25
+22
A26/02
World Cup
Croatia
#52
L
39-41
39
41
-2
H28/06
World Cup
Netherlands
#50
L
30-38
30
38
-8
A01/07
World Cup
Czech Republic
#18
L
40-48
40
48
-8
H07/09
Friendly International
Germany
#56
W
36-34
36
34
+2
H08/09
Friendly International
Poland
#19
W
54-52
54
52
+2
H14/09
World Cup
Hungary
#33
W
39-28
39
28
+11
A17/09
World Cup
76.7Avg total
40.7Scored
36.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (23)37.535.472.9+2.052%-
Last 30 at home (10)39.938.077.9+1.950%-
Last 30 away (13)35.633.569.1+2.254%-
Last 10 (10)40.736.076.7+4.770%-
Last 5 (5)39.840.079.8-0.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (3)30.038.368.3-8.30%-
vs Similar (4)37.538.075.5-0.525%-
vs Weaker (16)38.934.273.1+4.669%-
This opponent (Lithuania) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
LithuaniaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Kosovo
#68
D
35-35
35
35
+0
A24/11
World Cup
Poland
#19
W
38-25
38
25
+13
H26/11
World Cup
Hungary
#33
W
41-37
41
37
+4
H23/02
World Cup
Kosovo
#68
W
48-27
48
27
+21
H26/02
World Cup
Poland
#19
W
36-25
36
25
+11
A28/06
World Cup
Hungary
#33
W
37-24
37
24
+13
A01/07
World Cup
Finland
#15
L
44-47
44
47
-3
A05/09
Friendly International
Latvia
#43
L
37-45
37
45
-8
H09/09
Friendly International
Croatia
#52
W
43-36
43
36
+7
A14/09
World Cup
Netherlands
#50
D
39-39
39
39
+0
H17/09
World Cup
73.8Avg total
39.8Scored
34.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.036.374.3+1.653%-
Last 30 at home (13)38.335.974.2+2.454%-
Last 30 away (17)37.736.674.4+1.153%-
Last 10 (10)39.834.073.8+5.860%-
Last 5 (5)40.038.278.2+1.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)36.340.276.6-3.922%-
vs Similar (4)35.842.878.5-7.025%-
vs Weaker ◀ (17)39.432.872.1+6.676%-
This opponent (Italy) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Italy wins
1
Lithuania wins
DateGameScore
27/08/13Italy v Lithuania63-79
Italylast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
17/09/18AHungary69-63
14/09/18HPoland101-82
08/09/18HGermany71-62
07/09/18HCzech Republic80-87
01/07/18ANetherlands66-81
28/06/18HCroatia72-78
26/02/18ARomania101-50
23/02/18HNetherlands80-62
26/11/17ACroatia80-64
24/11/17HRomania75-70
Lithuanialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
17/09/18HNetherlands95-93 OT
14/09/18ACroatia84-83
09/09/18HLatvia80-97
05/09/18AFinland75-103
01/07/18AHungary73-50
28/06/18APoland79-61
26/02/18HKosovo106-50
23/02/18HHungary80-75
26/11/17HPoland75-55
24/11/17AKosovo99-61

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Italy
World Cup 2019
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLWW75%
HomeWWLW75%
AwayWWLW75%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games844
Win %75%75%75%
Points / game80.582.079.0
Allowed / game68.873.064.5
Point differential+11.8+9.0+14.5
Avg total149.2155.0143.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%50%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
Lithuania
World Cup 2019
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW100%
HomeWWWW100%
AwayWWWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games844
Win %100%100%100%
Points / game86.489.083.8
Allowed / game66.068.263.8
Point differential+20.4+20.8+20.0
Avg total152.4157.2147.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+62%50%75%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (3)100% (2)100% (1)
Overtime %12%25%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Nigeria990100%99.165.6+33.6
2 Tunisia990100%79.752.9+26.8
3 Lithuania880100%86.466.0+20.4
4 Germany880100%88.269.4+18.9
5 Greece880100%83.672.5+11.1
6 New Zealand98189%93.870.4+23.3
7 Australia87188%89.259.5+29.8
8 Canada87188%95.672.6+23.0
9 Argentina87188%87.968.6+19.2
10 France87188%78.864.8+14.0
11 Venezuela87188%75.464.9+10.5
12 Czech Republic87188%78.672.9+5.8
13 Puerto Rico65183%88.281.7+6.5
14 South Korea97278%89.279.3+9.9
15 Turkey97278%74.866.9+7.9
16 Spain97278%79.373.3+6.0
17 Senegal97278%73.671.0+2.6
18 Brazil86275%72.058.5+13.5
19 Iran86275%73.961.8+12.1
20 Italy86275%80.568.8+11.8
21 Uruguay75271%70.771.7-1.0
22 Lebanon96367%83.870.3+13.4
23 Angola96367%65.962.4+3.4
24 Serbia85362%83.573.0+10.5
25 Dominican Republic85362%86.077.2+8.8
26 Philippines85362%79.480.5-1.1
27 Bulgaria127558%79.074.6+4.4
28 China95456%86.770.8+15.9
29 Jordan95456%88.780.1+8.6
30 Cameroon95456%72.966.7+6.2
31 Poland95456%78.073.7+4.3
32 Latvia95456%79.977.3+2.6
33 Ukraine95456%75.873.2+2.6
34 Montenegro95456%77.475.7+1.8
35 Egypt95456%64.966.3-1.4
36 Japan84450%78.073.8+4.2
37 Russia84450%76.672.6+4.0
38 Finland84450%75.676.6-1.0
39 Armenia63350%78.380.3-2.0
40 Netherlands136746%78.273.4+4.8
41 Ivory Coast94544%64.262.8+1.4
42 Croatia94544%73.672.3+1.2
43 Hungary94544%68.969.2-0.3
44 Central African Republic94544%67.271.8-4.6
45 Panama73443%72.775.3-2.6
46 Bosnia & Herzegovina146843%75.979.7-3.8
47 Sweden125742%72.875.6-2.8
48 Estonia125742%68.575.2-6.7
49 Georgia83538%78.882.6-3.9
50 Israel83538%77.081.9-4.9
51 Kazakhstan83538%66.476.9-10.5
52 D.R. Congo62433%67.867.7+0.2
53 Mexico62433%73.373.8-0.5
54 Morocco93633%63.265.8-2.6
55 Mozambique62433%58.062.8-4.8
56 Iraq62433%68.773.7-5.0
57 Iceland62433%77.282.7-5.5
58 Mali93633%69.378.1-8.8
59 Chad93633%63.173.4-10.3
60 Rwanda93633%70.883.6-12.8
61 Romania62433%61.377.8-16.5
62 Austria103730%72.078.2-6.2
63 North Macedonia41325%74.075.0-1.0
64 Portugal41325%72.582.2-9.8
65 United States Virgin Islands82625%72.886.9-14.1
66 Qatar82625%66.581.5-15.0
67 Slovenia92722%76.682.8-6.2
68 Syria92722%65.190.4-25.3
69 Belarus102820%73.983.0-9.1
70 Kosovo102820%65.586.3-20.8
71 Great Britain61517%73.376.2-2.8
72 Belgium61517%65.373.8-8.5
73 Slovakia61517%72.381.3-9.0
74 Uganda61517%77.790.0-12.3
75 Colombia61517%65.580.2-14.7
76 Bahamas61517%73.593.5-20.0
77 Chinese Taipei61517%71.092.0-21.0
78 Chile81712%60.876.4-15.6
79 Cuba4040%67.581.5-14.0
80 Paraguay6060%58.576.7-18.2
81 India6060%68.894.7-25.8
82 Guinea6060%56.089.3-33.3
83 Albania4040%57.094.5-37.5
84 Hong Kong6060%67.3110.2-42.8
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Italy2022111770
Lithuania2411181265
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