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Italy W vs Germany W Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 06 Feb 2025
Tip-off: 19:30
Final 79-60
23-21 15-17 22-6 19-16
Position#6
Record3-1
FormLWWWL
Points / game64.8
Allowed / game55.8
Italy W 🏆
vs
Germany W
Position#11
Record3-1
FormWLLWW
Points / game72.8
Allowed / game63.5
EuropeEuropean Championship WomenRound 5· PalaCattani
Women2024
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Italy W winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Germany W winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Italy WLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormW
Date
Competition
Luxembourg W
#29
W
109-51
109
51
+58
no box
A09/02
European Championship Women
Switzerland W
#30
W
79-63
79
63
+16
no box
A12/02
European Championship Women
Czech Republic W
#12
L
58-61
58
61
-3
no box
H15/06
European Championship Women
Israel W
#26
W
88-68
88
68
+20
no box
A16/06
European Championship Women
Belgium W
#3
L
64-72
64
72
-8
no box
A18/06
European Championship Women
Montenegro W
#16
L
49-63
49
63
-14
no box
A19/06
European Championship Women
Greece W
#22
W
76-67
76
67
+9
no box
H09/11
European Championship Women
Germany W
#11
W
70-53
70
53
+17
no box
A12/11
European Championship Women
Czech Republic W
#21
W
68-47
68
47
+21
59avg 44
H07/11
European Championship Women
Greece W
#22
L
45-56
45
56
-11
28avg 44
A10/11
European Championship Women
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-13
25-12
25-18
35-8
19-21
17-12
20-18
23-12
17-17
16-15
17-11
8-18
30-18
17-13
20-14
21-23
22-26
17-17
15-11
10-18
8-22
14-13
9-13
18-15
24-10
15-21
14-17
23-19
21-8
15-19
12-12
22-14
25-17
8-9
17-6
18-15
20-23
8-10
7-9
10-14
130.7Avg total
70.6Scored
60.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)64.855.8120.5+9.075%
Season at home (2)72.057.0129.0+15.0100%
Season away (2)57.554.5112.0+3.050%
Last 10 (10)70.660.1130.7+10.560%
Last 5 (5)61.657.2118.8+4.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)72.579.0151.5-6.50%
vs Similarno games
vs Weaker ◀ (22)74.059.5133.5+14.477%
This opponent (Germany W) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Germany WLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormW
Date
Competition
Italy W
#6
L
53-70
53
70
-17
no box
H12/11
European Championship Women
Serbia W
#9
W
73-66
73
66
+7
74avg 65
H08/02
Olympic Games Women
Australia W
#3
L
52-85
52
85
-33
38avg 65
A10/02
Olympic Games Women
Brazil W
#15
W
73-71
73
71
+2
66avg 65
A11/02
Olympic Games Women
Belgium W
#7
W
83-69
83
69
+14
84avg 65
H29/07
Olympic Games Women
Japan W
#13
W
75-64
75
64
+11
76avg 65
A01/08
Olympic Games Women
USA W
#1
L
68-87
68
87
-19
59avg 65
H04/08
Olympic Games Women
France W
#2
L
71-84
71
84
-13
65avg 65
H07/08
Olympic Games Women
Greece W
#22
W
79-76
79
76
+3
80avg 65
H07/11
European Championship Women
Czech Republic W
#21
W
74-67
74
67
+7
73avg 65
H10/11
European Championship Women
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
8-21
19-15
12-12
14-22
19-12
17-9
17-25
20-20
10-24
14-30
21-21
7-10
19-14
20-21
18-18
16-18
25-11
21-14
14-17
23-27
21-16
21-20
17-13
16-15
19-16
10-25
17-28
22-18
19-23
14-22
16-21
22-18
19-19
20-16
19-18
21-23
20-20
17-17
20-10
17-20
144.0Avg total
70.1Scored
73.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)72.863.5136.2+9.275%
Season at home (3)68.771.0139.7-2.367%
Season away (1)85.041.0126.0+44.0100%
Last 10 (10)70.173.9144.0-3.860%
Last 5 (5)73.475.6149.0-2.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (13)59.773.7133.4-14.023%
vs Similar (5)71.667.2138.8+4.4100%
vs Weaker (12)81.460.6142.0+20.883%
This opponent (Italy W) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +3.5+3.5Q1: +0.3+0.3Q2Q2: +1.1+1.1Q2: -1.6-1.6Q3Q3: +2.7+2.7Q3: -1.2-1.2Q4Q4: +3.2+3.2Q4: -1.3-1.3
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +3.5+3.5Q1: +0.3+0.3Q2Q2: +1.1+1.1Q2: -1.6-1.6Q3Q3: +2.7+2.7Q3: -1.2-1.2Q4Q4: +3.2+3.2Q4: -1.3-1.3
Italy WGermany W
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Italy WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Luxembourg W
#29
W
49-25
49
25
+24
A09/02
European Championship Women
Switzerland W
#30
W
36-33
36
33
+3
A12/02
European Championship Women
Czech Republic W
#12
W
33-32
33
32
+1
H15/06
European Championship Women
Israel W
#26
W
47-31
47
31
+16
A16/06
European Championship Women
Belgium W
#3
L
39-43
39
43
-4
A18/06
European Championship Women
Montenegro W
#16
L
22-35
22
35
-13
A19/06
European Championship Women
Greece W
#22
W
39-31
39
31
+8
H09/11
European Championship Women
Germany W
#11
W
36-27
36
27
+9
A12/11
European Championship Women
Czech Republic W
#21
W
33-26
33
26
+7
H07/11
European Championship Women
Greece W
#22
L
28-33
28
33
-5
A10/11
European Championship Women
67.8Avg total
36.2Scored
31.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (24)38.030.568.5+7.575%-
Last 30 at home (12)37.627.865.4+9.883%-
Last 30 away (12)38.533.271.7+5.367%-
Last 10 (10)36.231.667.8+4.670%-
Last 5 (5)31.630.462.0+1.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)39.040.079.0-1.050%-
vs Similarno games
vs Weaker ◀ (22)38.029.667.6+8.377%-
This opponent (Germany W) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Germany WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Italy W
#6
L
27-36
27
36
-9
H12/11
European Championship Women
Serbia W
#9
W
36-21
36
21
+15
H08/02
Olympic Games Women
Australia W
#3
L
24-54
24
54
-30
A10/02
Olympic Games Women
Brazil W
#15
W
39-35
39
35
+4
A11/02
Olympic Games Women
Belgium W
#7
W
46-25
46
25
+21
H29/07
Olympic Games Women
Japan W
#13
W
42-36
42
36
+6
A01/08
Olympic Games Women
USA W
#1
L
29-41
29
41
-12
H04/08
Olympic Games Women
France W
#2
L
33-45
33
45
-12
H07/08
Olympic Games Women
Greece W
#22
W
39-35
39
35
+4
H07/11
European Championship Women
Czech Republic W
#21
D
37-37
37
37
+0
H10/11
European Championship Women
71.7Avg total
35.2Scored
36.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)33.734.768.4-0.940%-
Last 30 at home (18)34.134.368.3-0.233%-
Last 30 away (12)33.235.268.5-2.050%-
Last 10 (10)35.236.571.7-1.350%-
Last 5 (5)36.038.874.8-2.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (13)27.736.263.9-8.515%-
vs Similar (5)35.432.668.0+2.860%-
vs Weaker (12)39.633.873.4+5.858%-
This opponent (Italy W) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Italy Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Italy W: 63.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀57%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀12%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.5 pts a game · 57% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers19.5 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws7.8 pts a game · 12% of the points
League average for comparison: 69.1 points a game
51%
31%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.818.2
42.7%
45.4%36.5
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.26.5
29.2%
30.0%19.5
🏀 Free throws12.87.7
60.8%
72.4%7.8
They take 65.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 22.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 34% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Germany Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Germany W: 69.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀28%
🏀24%
🏀🏀 2-pointers33.6 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers19.5 pts a game · 28% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.4 pts a game · 24% of the points
League average for comparison: 69.1 points a game
51%
31%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.616.8
42.4%
45.4%33.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers20.66.5
31.6%
30.0%19.5
🏀 Free throws21.716.4
75.6%
72.4%16.4
They take 60.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 20.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 34% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 4/10 games with a box score before 06 Feb 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Italy W
LWWWLLWLWW
Germany W
WWLLWWWLWL
#6
League position
#11
+12.3
Net rating
-3.8
92.6
Offensive rating
89.1
80.2
Defensive rating
93.0
43.1%
Effective FG%
44.1%
40.2%
Opp. effective FG%
46.0%
16.2%
Turnover %
24.4%
30.1%
Off. rebound %
29.6%
0.20
Free-throw rate
0.36
29.2%
3-point %
31.6%
61.6%
Assist %
69.1%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence92.6 · 89.1Defence80.2 · 93.0Shooting43.1% · 44.1%3-point %29.2% · 31.6%Ball care16.2% · 24.4%Off. rebounds30.1% · 29.6%Free throws0.20 · 0.36Form (last 10/10)60% · 60%
■ Italy W   ■ Germany W
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Italy W wins
0
Germany W wins
DateGameScore
12/11/23Germany W v Italy W53-70
Italy Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
10/11/24AGreece W45-56
07/11/24HCzech Republic W68-47
12/11/23AGermany W70-53
09/11/23HGreece W76-67
19/06/23AMontenegro W49-63
18/06/23ABelgium W64-72
16/06/23AIsrael W88-68
15/06/23HCzech Republic W58-61
12/02/23ASwitzerland W79-63
09/02/23ALuxembourg W109-51
Germany Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
10/11/24HCzech Republic W74-67
07/11/24HGreece W79-76
07/08/24HFrance W71-84
04/08/24HUSA W68-87
01/08/24AJapan W75-64
29/07/24HBelgium W83-69
11/02/24ABrazil W73-71
10/02/24AAustralia W52-85
08/02/24HSerbia W73-66
12/11/23HItaly W53-70

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Italy W
European Championship Women 2024
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWL75%
HomeWW100%
AwayWL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games422
Win %75%100%50%
Points / game64.872.057.5
Allowed / game55.857.054.5
Point differential+9.0+15.0+3.0
Avg total120.5129.0112.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%50%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
Germany W
European Championship Women 2024
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWW75%
HomeLWW67%
AwayW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games431
Win %75%67%100%
Points / game72.868.785.0
Allowed / game63.571.041.0
Point differential+9.2-2.3+44.0
Avg total136.2139.7126.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+25%0%100%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 France W550100%94.444.8+49.6
2 Serbia W550100%88.050.0+38.0
3 Turkey W550100%79.257.0+22.2
4 Spain W550100%73.053.0+20.0
5 Sweden W550100%76.663.0+13.6
6 Belgium W54180%91.253.2+38.0
7 Lithuania W54180%84.866.4+18.4
8 Luxembourg W54180%65.251.4+13.8
9 Slovenia W54180%76.269.0+7.2
10 Portugal W54180%63.257.2+6.0
11 Germany W43175%72.863.5+9.2
12 Italy W43175%64.855.8+9.0
13 Montenegro W53260%71.461.8+9.6
14 Croatia W53260%78.270.0+8.2
15 Hungary W53260%70.462.8+7.6
16 Slovakia W53260%70.267.8+2.4
17 Switzerland W53260%60.858.8+2.0
18 Latvia W53260%70.873.8-3.0
19 Great Britain W42250%70.058.5+11.5
20 Poland W52340%78.268.0+10.2
21 Israel W52340%78.476.2+2.2
22 Greece W52340%68.069.4-1.4
23 Netherlands W52340%63.668.2-4.6
24 Finland W52340%65.673.6-8.0
25 Estonia W41325%54.076.0-22.0
26 Denmark W51420%68.473.6-5.2
27 Iceland W51420%71.677.6-6.0
28 Bulgaria W51420%73.280.0-6.8
29 Ukraine W51420%62.269.6-7.4
30 Czech Republic W51420%60.473.6-13.2
31 Romania W51420%67.686.2-18.6
32 Austria W5050%52.275.8-23.6
33 Bosnia & Herzegovina W5050%57.082.4-25.4
34 North Macedonia W5050%52.889.4-36.6
35 Ireland W5050%48.697.4-48.8
36 Azerbaijan W5050%42.4109.0-66.6
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 36 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Italy W2315221979
Germany W211761660
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