PythiaBasketballBETA
NKLRound 15· Kauno r. Garliavos sporto centras
Kauno Atletas will host Rytas 2 on 19 November 2026 in the NKL, and the contest is almost a toss-up with the model giving a 48% chance to the home side and 52% to the visitors, the latter being the favourite. Kauno Atletas are 2-12 in 14 games, scoring 79.1 points per game and conceding 94.4, while Rytas 2 are 1-13, averaging 77.1 points and allowing 86.9; the home club has a 1-6 home record, 80.7 points for and 91.1 against, and has won two of its last five, including a 102-92 win over Silute at home, whereas Rytas 2 are 0-6 on the road, 72.7 points for and 82.0 against, and have taken only one of their last five, a 91-79 victory over Kretinga at home. In the eight meetings between them, Kauno Atletas have won seven, but the last encounter on 2 March 2024 saw Rytas 2 edge 88-86. The Pythia model projects a 83-83 tie, 165.7 total points, and a 5% chance of overtime, with the home team covering the spread only if they win by five or more. The game will hinge on whether Kauno Atletas can hold the line against Rytas 2's recent surge.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (14) | 79.1 | 94.4 | 173.6 | -15.3 | 14% |
| Season at home (7) | 80.7 | 91.1 | 171.9 | -10.4 | 14% |
| Season away (7) | 77.6 | 97.7 | 175.3 | -20.1 | 14% |
| Last 10 (10) | 79.6 | 94.3 | 173.9 | -14.7 | 20% |
| Last 5 (5) | 82.4 | 90.4 | 172.8 | -8.0 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (14) | 79.1 | 94.4 | 173.6 | -15.3 | 14% |
| vs Similar (14) | 77.1 | 78.9 | 156.0 | -1.7 | 36% |
| vs Weaker (2) | 87.5 | 87.5 | 175.0 | +0.0 | 50% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (14) | 77.1 | 86.9 | 164.0 | -9.7 | 7% |
| Season at home (8) | 80.5 | 90.5 | 171.0 | -10.0 | 12% |
| Season away (6) | 72.7 | 82.0 | 154.7 | -9.3 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 75.9 | 84.8 | 160.7 | -8.9 | 10% |
| Last 5 (5) | 84.0 | 88.8 | 172.8 | -4.8 | 20% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (11) | 76.8 | 90.7 | 167.5 | -13.9 | 0% |
| vs Similar (16) | 80.4 | 81.4 | 161.8 | -0.9 | 44% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (3) | 85.3 | 70.7 | 156.0 | +14.7 | 100% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 38.6 | 43.0 | 81.6 | -4.5 | 33% | - |
| Last 30 at home (15) | 38.6 | 42.0 | 80.6 | -3.4 | 33% | - |
| Last 30 away (15) | 38.5 | 44.1 | 82.6 | -5.5 | 33% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 39.1 | 48.1 | 87.2 | -9.0 | 20% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 42.4 | 43.6 | 86.0 | -1.2 | 40% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (14) | 38.9 | 46.9 | 85.8 | -8.1 | 14% | - |
| vs Similar (14) | 37.7 | 38.4 | 76.1 | -0.6 | 57% | - |
| vs Weaker (2) | 42.5 | 48.5 | 91.0 | -6.0 | 0% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 38.7 | 42.3 | 81.0 | -3.5 | 37% | - |
| Last 30 at home (15) | 39.8 | 43.7 | 83.5 | -3.9 | 33% | - |
| Last 30 away (15) | 37.7 | 40.9 | 78.5 | -3.2 | 40% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 37.6 | 42.6 | 80.2 | -5.0 | 30% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 40.0 | 46.6 | 86.6 | -6.6 | 20% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (11) | 37.1 | 46.2 | 83.3 | -9.1 | 9% | - |
| vs Similar (16) | 39.2 | 40.6 | 79.8 | -1.4 | 50% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (3) | 42.3 | 36.7 | 79.0 | +5.7 | 67% | - |
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| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 45.0 | 23.2 | 54.5% | 46.4 | |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 20.0 | 5.1 | 31.3% | 15.3 | |
| 🏀 Free throws | 21.1 | 13.6 | 67.1% | 13.6 |
| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 40.6 | 21.2 | 54.5% | 42.4 | |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 23.2 | 5.8 | 31.3% | 17.4 | |
| 🏀 Free throws | 19.8 | 15.1 | 67.1% | 15.1 |
Kauno Atletas
| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 02/03/24 | Rytas 2 v Kauno Atletas | 88-86 |
| 25/01/24 | Kauno Atletas v Rytas 2 | 89-87 |
| 02/12/23 | Rytas 2 v Kauno Atletas | 58-102 |
| 12/10/23 | Kauno Atletas v Rytas 2 | 90-82 |
| 20/12/22 | Kauno Atletas v Rytas 2 | 95-83 |
| 20/10/22 | Rytas 2 v Kauno Atletas | 75-89 |
| 06/01/22 | Rytas 2 v Kauno Atletas | 81-87 OT |
| 04/11/21 | Kauno Atletas v Rytas 2 | 74-72 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/26 | A | BC Olimpas Palanga | 81-115 |
| 12/11/26 | H | Omega-Tauras | 75-96 |
| 10/11/26 | H | Silute | 102-92 |
| 07/11/26 | H | Neptunas 2 | 74-83 |
| 05/11/26 | A | Kedainiai BC | 80-66 |
| 31/10/26 | H | Mazeikiai | 88-97 |
| 29/10/26 | A | Telsiai | 76-100 |
| 27/10/26 | A | Suduva-Mantinga | 63-113 |
| 22/10/26 | A | Vytis VDU | 85-97 |
| 17/10/26 | H | Kretinga | 72-84 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/26 | H | Suduva-Mantinga | 79-93 |
| 12/11/26 | A | Ukmerges Stekas | 69-76 |
| 07/11/26 | H | Kretinga | 91-79 |
| 05/11/26 | A | Zalgiris Kaunas 2 | 90-95 |
| 31/10/26 | H | Alytaus Patriotai | 91-101 |
| 29/10/26 | A | Vilkaviskis | 72-74 |
| 24/10/26 | H | Neptunas 2 | 62-74 |
| 22/10/26 | A | Kedainiai BC | 69-83 |
| 17/10/26 | A | Plunges Olimpas | 64-89 |
| 15/10/26 | H | Jurbarkas | 72-84 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WLWLL | 14% |
| Home | LLLWL | 14% |
| Away | LLLWL | 14% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 14 | 7 | 7 |
| Win % | 14% | 14% | 14% |
| Points / game | 79.1 | 80.7 | 77.6 |
| Allowed / game | 94.4 | 91.1 | 97.7 |
| Point differential | -15.3 | -10.4 | -20.1 |
| Avg total | 173.6 | 171.9 | 175.3 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 14% | 14% | 14% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LLWLL | 7% |
| Home | LLLWL | 12% |
| Away | LLLLL | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 14 | 8 | 6 |
| Win % | 7% | 12% | 0% |
| Points / game | 77.1 | 80.5 | 72.7 |
| Allowed / game | 86.9 | 90.5 | 82.0 |
| Point differential | -9.7 | -10.0 | -9.3 |
| Avg total | 164.0 | 171.0 | 154.7 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 7% | 12% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 0% (3) | - | 0% (3) |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Telsiai | 13 | 12 | 1 | 92% | 90.5 | 73.6 | +16.9 |
| 2 | Jurbarkas | 13 | 11 | 2 | 85% | 88.6 | 78.3 | +10.3 |
| 3 |  BC Olimpas Palanga | 14 | 11 | 3 | 79% | 96.3 | 84.6 | +11.6 |
| 4 |  Suduva-Mantinga | 13 | 10 | 3 | 77% | 91.5 | 77.8 | +13.8 |
| 5 |  Vytis VDU | 12 | 9 | 3 | 75% | 96.1 | 89.1 | +7.0 |
| 6 |  Neptunas 2 | 14 | 10 | 4 | 71% | 78.4 | 74.1 | +4.2 |
| 7 |  Silute | 12 | 8 | 4 | 67% | 84.3 | 82.2 | +2.2 |
| 8 | Alytaus Patriotai | 14 | 8 | 6 | 57% | 83.8 | 84.9 | -1.1 |
| 9 | Omega-Tauras | 14 | 7 | 7 | 50% | 89.4 | 85.9 | +3.4 |
| 10 | Plunges Olimpas | 14 | 7 | 7 | 50% | 83.1 | 81.1 | +2.1 |
| 11 |  Vilkaviskis | 14 | 6 | 8 | 43% | 83.1 | 86.1 | -3.0 |
| 12 |  Zalgiris Kaunas 2 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 42% | 94.2 | 96.8 | -2.7 |
| 13 | Ukmerges Stekas | 14 | 5 | 9 | 36% | 78.9 | 88.1 | -9.2 |
| 14 | Kedainiai BC | 14 | 4 | 10 | 29% | 76.8 | 85.0 | -8.2 |
| 15 |  Mazeikiai | 14 | 3 | 11 | 21% | 78.9 | 88.9 | -10.0 |
| 16 | Kretinga | 13 | 2 | 11 | 15% | 81.5 | 90.7 | -9.2 |
| 17 | Kauno Atletas | 14 | 2 | 12 | 14% | 79.1 | 94.4 | -15.3 |
| 18 | Rytas 2 | 14 | 1 | 13 | 7% | 77.1 | 86.9 | -9.7 |
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