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Kauno Atletas vs Neptunas 2 Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 07 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 14:00
Projected 74-84
Projected total 158.1
Final 74-83
17-19 22-20 23-13 12-31
Position#17
Record1-9
FormLLLLW
Points / game77.6
Allowed / game93.6
Kauno Atletas
Lithuania
Vs
20%
80%
■ KAUN 20%■ NEPT 80%
Pythia win probability
Neptunas 2 🏆
Lithuania
Position#7
Record7-4
FormWWWWL
Points / game77.7
Allowed / game75.1
LithuaniaNKLRound 12· Kauno r. Garliavos sporto centras
Other2026-27
Meetings · Kauno Atletas v Neptunas 2
07 Nov 2026
KAUN74
NEPT83
18 Jan 2024
KAUN77
NEPT82
11 Nov 2023
KAUN77
NEPT83
24 Nov 2022
KAUN88
NEPT54
22 Mar 2022
KAUN78
NEPT70
17 Mar 2022
KAUN70
NEPT61
04 Dec 2021
KAUN97
NEPT92
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Kauno Atletas will host Neptunas 2 on 7 November 2026 in the NKL, and the Pythia model names Neptunas 2 the clear favourite, assigning them an 80% chance to win because of their 7-4 season record, 77.7 points per game and 75.1 allowed, and a strong 4-1 road performance. Kauno Atletas, sitting 17th with a 1-9 record, 77.6 points per game and 93.6 allowed, have struggled at home, going 0-4 with 78.5 points per game and 91.8 allowed, and their last five games yielded only one win. Neptunas 2's last five games show four wins and one loss, and they have recently beaten Ukmerges Stekas 87-64 and Plunges Olimpas 59-57. In the ten meetings between the clubs, Kauno Atletas has won six times while Neptunas 2 has won four, with the most recent encounter on 15 February 2024 ending 89-76 for Neptunas 2. Pythia projects a 74-84 score for the game, a total of 158.1 points, and an 80% probability that Neptunas 2 will cover the line, with a 4% chance of overtime. The next game will see Neptunas 2 continue their strong road form against a Kauno Atletas side still searching for a win.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Kauno Atletas winLost
20.1%fair 4.98
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Neptunas 2 winWon
79.9%fair 1.25
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 06 Nov 07:38 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Kauno AtletasLithuaniaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormAtletas
Date
Competition
Jurbarkas
#2
L
78-102
78
102
-24
60avg 66
H03/10
NKL
Vilkaviskis
#12
L
76-84
76
84
-8
70avg 66
H08/10
NKL
Alytaus Patriotai
#9
L
75-86
75
86
-11
66avg 66
A10/10
NKL
Zalgiris Kaunas 2
#11
L
83-107
83
107
-24
71avg 66
A15/10
NKL
Kretinga
#15
L
72-84
72
84
-12
56avg 66
H17/10
NKL
Vytis VDU
#6
L
85-97
85
97
-12
75avg 66
A22/10
NKL
Suduva-Mantinga
#4
L
63-113
63
113
-50
48avg 66
A27/10
NKL
Telsiai
#1
L
76-100
76
100
-24
66avg 66
A29/10
NKL
Mazeikiai
#16
L
88-97
88
97
-9
85avg 66
H31/10
NKL
Kedainiai BC
#13
W
80-66
80
66
+14
no box
A05/11
NKL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-21
16-22
19-29
23-30
18-17
19-29
27-24
12-14
26-20
13-21
12-26
24-19
20-21
21-25
28-30
14-31
16-23
23-24
10-17
23-20
21-34
16-25
22-14
26-24
9-32
26-33
12-28
16-20
16-29
13-17
17-21
30-33
24-26
15-20
24-32
25-19
25-15
22-17
16-20
17-14
171.2Avg total
77.6Scored
93.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (10)77.693.6171.2-16.010%
Season at home (4)78.591.8170.2-13.20%
Season away (6)77.094.8171.8-17.817%
Last 10 (10)77.693.6171.2-16.010%
Last 5 (5)78.494.6173.0-16.220%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (11)75.492.1167.5-16.79%
vs Similar (17)77.379.7157.0-2.429%
vs Weaker (2)87.587.5175.0+0.050%
This opponent (Neptunas 2) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Neptunas 2LithuaniaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 Form2
Date
Competition
Omega-Tauras
#10
L
72-76
72
76
-4
56avg 71
H03/10
NKL
Vytis VDU
#6
L
84-88
84
88
-4
71avg 71
A06/10
NKL
Silute
#5
W
73-70
73
70
+3
69avg 71
H10/10
NKL
Telsiai
#1
L
72-85
72
85
-13
62avg 71
H15/10
NKL
Mazeikiai
#16
W
90-77
90
77
+13
86avg 71
A17/10
NKL
BC Olimpas Palanga
#3
W
78-77
78
77
+1
75avg 71
H22/10
NKL
Rytas 2
#18
W
74-62
74
62
+12
69avg 71
A24/10
NKL
Plunges Olimpas
#8
W
59-57
59
57
+2
42avg 71
H29/10
NKL
Ukmerges Stekas
#14
W
87-64
87
64
+23
no box
A03/11
NKL
Suduva-Mantinga
#4
L
75-94
75
94
-19
no box
H05/11
NKL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-21
23-19
16-18
12-18
17-26
24-16
23-26
20-20
18-13
15-20
26-20
14-17
10-18
21-23
22-20
19-24
27-24
25-24
23-16
15-13
22-17
31-17
14-23
11-20
23-18
15-16
18-16
18-12
13-17
19-19
10-11
17-10
20-9
23-21
21-16
23-18
20-23
13-24
20-18
22-29
151.4Avg total
76.4Scored
75.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (11)77.775.1152.8+2.664%
Season at home (6)71.576.5148.0-5.050%
Season away (5)85.273.4158.6+11.880%
Last 10 (10)76.475.0151.4+1.460%
Last 5 (5)74.670.8145.4+3.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)72.476.6149.0-4.238%
vs Similar (12)78.676.5155.1+2.167%
vs Weaker ◀ (10)83.472.8156.2+10.680%
This opponent (Kauno Atletas) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 162.5Actual: Under 162.5
Over 162.5
39.0%
Under 162.5
61.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 167.5Actual: Under 167.5
Over 167.5
28.0%
Under 167.5
72.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 172.5Actual: Under 172.5
Over 172.5
18.9%
Under 172.5
81.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Kauno Atletas total 80.5Actual: Kauno Atletas under 80.5
Over 80.5
26.9%
Under 80.5
73.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Atletas total 84.5Actual: Kauno Atletas under 84.5
Over 84.5
16.1%
Under 84.5
83.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Atletas total 88.5Actual: Kauno Atletas under 88.5
Over 88.5
8.8%
Under 88.5
91.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neptunas 2 total 79Actual: Neptunas 2 over 79
Over 79
69.2%
Under 79
30.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neptunas 2 total 83Push
Over 83
53.5%
Under 83
46.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neptunas 2 total 87Actual: Neptunas 2 under 87
Over 87
37.1%
Under 87
62.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Kauno Atletas -3Actual: Neptunas 2 +3
KAUN -3
14.2%
NEPT +3
85.8%
Best 5 market prices
KAUN
No market prices yet.
NEPT
No market prices yet.
Spread Kauno Atletas 0Actual: Neptunas 2 0
KAUN 0
20.1%
NEPT 0
79.9%
Best 5 market prices
KAUN
No market prices yet.
NEPT
No market prices yet.
Spread Kauno Atletas +3Actual: Neptunas 2 -3
KAUN +3
26.3%
NEPT -3
73.7%
Best 5 market prices
KAUN
No market prices yet.
NEPT
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: -4.3-4.3Q1: +0.5+0.5Q2Q2: -4.9-4.9Q2: +1.0+1.0Q3Q3: -5.4-5.4Q3: +0.9+0.9Q4Q4: -1.4-1.4Q4: -1.0-1.0
-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: -4.3-4.3Q1: +0.5+0.5Q2Q2: -4.9-4.9Q2: +1.0+1.0Q3Q3: -5.4-5.4Q3: +0.9+0.9Q4Q4: -1.4-1.4Q4: -1.0-1.0
Kauno AtletasNeptunas 2
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Kauno AtletasLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Jurbarkas
#2
L
36-43
36
43
-7
H03/10
NKL
Vilkaviskis
#12
L
37-46
37
46
-9
H08/10
NKL
Alytaus Patriotai
#9
L
39-41
39
41
-2
A10/10
NKL
Zalgiris Kaunas 2
#11
L
41-46
41
46
-5
A15/10
NKL
Kretinga
#15
L
39-47
39
47
-8
H17/10
NKL
Vytis VDU
#6
L
37-59
37
59
-22
A22/10
NKL
Suduva-Mantinga
#4
L
35-65
35
65
-30
A27/10
NKL
Telsiai
#1
L
29-46
29
46
-17
A29/10
NKL
Mazeikiai
#16
L
39-46
39
46
-7
H31/10
NKL
Kedainiai BC
#13
W
47-32
47
32
+15
A05/11
NKL
85.0Avg total
37.9Scored
47.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.042.380.3-4.430%-
Last 30 at home (14)38.341.880.1-3.529%-
Last 30 away (16)37.742.880.5-5.131%-
Last 10 (10)37.947.185.0-9.210%-
Last 5 (5)37.449.687.0-12.220%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (11)37.946.083.9-8.19%-
vs Similar (17)37.539.276.7-1.847%-
vs Weaker (2)42.548.591.0-6.00%-
This opponent (Neptunas 2) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Neptunas 2Last 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Omega-Tauras
#10
W
44-40
44
40
+4
H03/10
NKL
Vytis VDU
#6
L
41-42
41
42
-1
A06/10
NKL
Silute
#5
D
33-33
33
33
+0
H10/10
NKL
Telsiai
#1
L
31-41
31
41
-10
H15/10
NKL
Mazeikiai
#16
W
52-48
52
48
+4
A17/10
NKL
BC Olimpas Palanga
#3
W
53-34
53
34
+19
H22/10
NKL
Rytas 2
#18
W
38-34
38
34
+4
A24/10
NKL
Plunges Olimpas
#8
L
32-36
32
36
-4
H29/10
NKL
Ukmerges Stekas
#14
W
43-30
43
30
+13
A03/11
NKL
Suduva-Mantinga
#4
L
33-47
33
47
-14
H05/11
NKL
78.5Avg total
40.0Scored
38.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.038.079.0+3.073%-
Last 30 at home (13)41.739.881.5+1.954%-
Last 30 away (17)40.536.677.2+3.988%-
Last 10 (10)40.038.578.5+1.550%-
Last 5 (5)39.836.276.0+3.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)36.437.874.1-1.450%-
vs Similar (12)42.338.280.6+4.175%-
vs Weaker ◀ (10)43.237.981.1+5.390%-
This opponent (Kauno Atletas) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Kauno Atletastheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Kauno Atletas: 75.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀62%
🏀🏀🏀20%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers46.4 pts a game · 62% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers15.3 pts a game · 20% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.6 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.2 points a game
54%
29%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers45.023.2
51.6%
54.5%46.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers20.05.1
25.5%
31.3%15.3
🏀 Free throws21.113.6
64.5%
67.1%13.6
They take 65.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 20.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 31% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Neptunas 2their own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Neptunas 2: 75.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.8 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.9 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.1 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.2 points a game
54%
29%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.018.4
52.6%
54.5%36.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.38.3
28.3%
31.3%24.9
🏀 Free throws19.814.1
71.2%
67.1%14.1
They take 64.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 07 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Kauno Atletas
WLLLLLLLLL
Neptunas 2
LWWWWWLWLL
#17
League position
#7
-20.4
Net rating
+1.8
83.0
Offensive rating
89.8
103.4
Defensive rating
88.0
47.5%
Effective FG%
48.0%
56.0%
Opp. effective FG%
48.3%
18.9%
Turnover %
12.9%
0.32
Free-throw rate
0.31
25.5%
3-point %
28.3%
59.7%
Assist %
60.7%
10%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence83.0 · 89.8Defence103.4 · 88.0Shooting47.5% · 48.0%3-point %25.5% · 28.3%Ball care18.9% · 12.9%Free throws0.32 · 0.31Form (last 10/10)10% · 60%
■ Kauno Atletas   ■ Neptunas 2
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
6
Kauno Atletas wins
4
Neptunas 2 wins
DateGameScore
15/02/24Neptunas 2 v Kauno Atletas89-76
18/01/24Kauno Atletas v Neptunas 277-82
06/01/24Neptunas 2 v Kauno Atletas69-68
11/11/23Kauno Atletas v Neptunas 277-83
24/11/22Kauno Atletas v Neptunas 288-54
08/10/22Neptunas 2 v Kauno Atletas81-86 OT
22/03/22Kauno Atletas v Neptunas 278-70
19/03/22Neptunas 2 v Kauno Atletas75-89
17/03/22Kauno Atletas v Neptunas 270-61
04/12/21Kauno Atletas v Neptunas 297-92 OT
Kauno Atletaslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
05/11/26AKedainiai BC80-66
31/10/26HMazeikiai88-97
29/10/26ATelsiai76-100
27/10/26ASuduva-Mantinga63-113
22/10/26AVytis VDU85-97
17/10/26HKretinga72-84
15/10/26AZalgiris Kaunas 283-107
10/10/26AAlytaus Patriotai75-86
08/10/26HVilkaviskis76-84
03/10/26HJurbarkas78-102
Neptunas 2last 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
05/11/26HSuduva-Mantinga75-94
03/11/26AUkmerges Stekas87-64
29/10/26HPlunges Olimpas59-57
24/10/26ARytas 274-62
22/10/26HBC Olimpas Palanga78-77
17/10/26AMazeikiai90-77
15/10/26HTelsiai72-85
10/10/26HSilute73-70
06/10/26AVytis VDU84-88
03/10/26HOmega-Tauras72-76

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Kauno Atletas
NKL 2026-27
Recent: 1 Wins / 9 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLW10%
HomeLLLL0%
AwayLLLLW17%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1046
Win %10%0%17%
Points / game77.678.577.0
Allowed / game93.691.894.8
Point differential-16.0-13.2-17.8
Avg total171.2170.2171.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+10%0%17%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
Neptunas 2
NKL 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWL64%
HomeWLWWL50%
AwayWLWWW80%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1165
Win %64%50%80%
Points / game77.771.585.2
Allowed / game75.176.573.4
Point differential+2.6-5.0+11.8
Avg total152.8148.0158.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+36%0%80%
Close games (≤5 pts) won60% (5)75% (4)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Telsiai1211192%90.574.2+16.3
2 Jurbarkas1110191%90.277.6+12.5
3 BC Olimpas Palanga1210283%96.284.7+11.6
4 Suduva-Mantinga107370%92.979.4+13.5
5 Silute107370%82.280.5+1.7
6 Vytis VDU96367%96.289.6+6.7
7 Neptunas 2117464%77.775.1+2.6
8 Plunges Olimpas127558%82.678.8+3.8
9 Alytaus Patriotai116555%86.287.1-0.9
10 Omega-Tauras126650%90.087.2+2.8
11 Vilkaviskis115645%82.885.7-2.9
12 Zalgiris Kaunas 2125742%94.296.8-2.7
13 Kedainiai BC114736%75.883.5-7.6
14 Ukmerges Stekas113827%79.591.0-11.5
15 Kretinga112918%80.389.2-8.9
16 Mazeikiai112918%76.587.8-11.3
17 Kauno Atletas101910%77.693.6-16.0
18 Rytas 2110110%76.588.0-11.5
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Kauno Atletas1722231274
Neptunas 21920133183
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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