PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
Kent State hosts Eastern Kentucky on 16 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model rates Kent State the clear favourite, giving it an 87% win probability thanks to its 1-2 record, 83.3 points per game and 75.3 points allowed, and a 274th league position that still outpaces Eastern Kentucky's 3-1 record, 97.0 points per game and 66.5 allowed from 4 games and a 88th league position; Kent State's home record is 1-0 with 102.0 points scored and 50.0 allowed, while Eastern Kentucky's road record is 0-1 with 71.0 points scored and 85.0 allowed. Kent State's last five games show two wins and three losses, including a 102-50 home win over Roberts Wesleyan, a 73-91 loss to NC Wilmington away, and a 75-85 loss to Louisiana Tech away; Eastern Kentucky's last five games include three wins and two losses, with a 106-59 home win over Kentucky State, a 71-85 loss to Georgia Tech away, and a 106-68 home win over Midway. The teams have met once before, with Kent State winning 93-78 on 18 November 2025. Pythia projects a 86-73 score, a total of 158.8 points, and an 87% chance that Kent State covers the spread, with a 3% chance of overtime. Kent State's recent 102-50 home victory shows its offensive potency.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 83.3 | 75.3 | 158.7 | +8.0 | 33% |
| Season at home (1) | 102.0 | 50.0 | 152.0 | +52.0 | 100% |
| Season away (2) | 74.0 | 88.0 | 162.0 | -14.0 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 82.3 | 77.4 | 159.7 | +4.9 | 60% |
| Last 5 (5) | 80.8 | 75.2 | 156.0 | +5.6 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (8) | 74.8 | 87.4 | 162.1 | -12.6 | 25% |
| vs Similar (6) | 81.5 | 77.5 | 159.0 | +4.0 | 83% |
| vs Weaker (14) | 85.3 | 74.6 | 159.9 | +10.6 | 79% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (4) | 97.0 | 66.5 | 163.5 | +30.5 | 75% |
| Season at home (3) | 105.7 | 60.3 | 166.0 | +45.3 | 100% |
| Season away (1) | 71.0 | 85.0 | 156.0 | -14.0 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 87.4 | 79.0 | 166.4 | +8.4 | 50% |
| Last 5 (5) | 92.8 | 71.6 | 164.4 | +21.2 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (10) | 71.8 | 79.9 | 151.7 | -8.1 | 20% |
| vs Similar (10) | 80.6 | 81.3 | 161.9 | -0.7 | 50% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (8) | 90.8 | 81.4 | 172.1 | +9.4 | 50% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 37.9 | 35.1 | 73.0 | +2.8 | 50% | - |
| Last 30 at home (15) | 41.5 | 34.2 | 75.7 | +7.3 | 60% | - |
| Last 30 away (15) | 34.3 | 36.0 | 70.3 | -1.7 | 40% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 37.5 | 36.4 | 73.9 | +1.1 | 50% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 35.8 | 37.0 | 72.8 | -1.2 | 40% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (8) | 32.5 | 43.1 | 75.6 | -10.6 | 12% | - |
| vs Similar (6) | 35.2 | 34.0 | 69.2 | +1.2 | 50% | - |
| vs Weaker (14) | 40.4 | 32.9 | 73.3 | +7.6 | 64% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 38.7 | 37.2 | 75.9 | +1.5 | 53% | - |
| Last 30 at home (16) | 40.3 | 35.9 | 76.2 | +4.4 | 50% | - |
| Last 30 away (14) | 36.9 | 38.7 | 75.6 | -1.8 | 57% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 43.4 | 35.4 | 78.8 | +8.0 | 70% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 45.0 | 33.0 | 78.0 | +12.0 | 80% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (10) | 33.5 | 39.8 | 73.3 | -6.3 | 30% | - |
| vs Similar (10) | 38.5 | 35.9 | 74.4 | +2.6 | 70% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (8) | 43.5 | 39.2 | 82.8 | +4.2 | 50% | - |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 19/11/25 | Kent State v Eastern Kentucky | 93-78 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/11/26 | A | NC Wilmington | 73-91 |
| 07/11/26 | H | Roberts Wesleyan | 102-50 |
| 03/11/26 | A | Louisiana Tech | 75-85 |
| 13/03/26 | A | Akron | 68-75 |
| 12/03/26 | H | Ohio | 86-75 |
| 07/03/26 | H | Western Michigan | 86-78 |
| 04/03/26 | A | Northern Illinois | 102-76 |
| 28/02/26 | H | Akron | 70-92 |
| 25/02/26 | H | Central Michigan | 83-81 |
| 18/02/26 | A | Bowling Green | 78-71 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/26 | H | Kentucky State | 106-59 |
| 11/11/26 | A | Georgia Tech | 71-85 |
| 07/11/26 | H | Midway | 106-68 |
| 03/11/26 | H | Kentucky Christian | 105-54 |
| 04/03/26 | H | Stetson | 76-92 |
| 28/02/26 | H | Lipscomb | 77-80 |
| 26/02/26 | H | Queens Royals | 79-96 |
| 22/02/26 | A | Bellarmine | 95-92 |
| 19/02/26 | H | West Georgia | 81-80 OT |
| 15/02/26 | A | North Alabama | 78-84 OT |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LWL | 33% |
| Home | W | 100% |
| Away | LL | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| Win % | 33% | 100% | 0% |
| Points / game | 83.3 | 102.0 | 74.0 |
| Allowed / game | 75.3 | 50.0 | 88.0 |
| Point differential | +8.0 | +52.0 | -14.0 |
| Avg total | 158.7 | 152.0 | 162.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 33% | 100% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWLW | 75% |
| Home | WWW | 100% |
| Away | L | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 3 | 1 |
| Win % | 75% | 100% | 0% |
| Points / game | 97.0 | 105.7 | 71.0 |
| Allowed / game | 66.5 | 60.3 | 85.0 |
| Point differential | +30.5 | +45.3 | -14.0 |
| Avg total | 163.5 | 166.0 | 156.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 75% | 100% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Akron | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 84.0 | 62.7 | +21.3 |
| 2 |  Central Michigan | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 83.8 | 65.8 | +18.0 |
| 3 |  Bowling Green | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 86.3 | 76.0 | +10.3 |
| 4 |  Miami (Ohio) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 84.0 | 76.0 | +8.0 |
| 5 |  Western Michigan | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 79.0 | 60.8 | +18.2 |
| 6 |  Eastern Michigan | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 77.3 | 63.3 | +14.0 |
| 7 |  UMass | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 66.0 | 64.3 | +1.7 |
| 8 |  Ohio | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 76.0 | 75.7 | +0.3 |
| 9 |  Northern Illinois | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60% | 79.4 | 73.2 | +6.2 |
| 10 |  Toledo | 5 | 2 | 3 | 40% | 73.0 | 77.2 | -4.2 |
| 11 | Kent State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 83.3 | 75.3 | +8.0 |
| 12 |  Buffalo | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 77.7 | 79.0 | -1.3 |
| 13 |  Ball State | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 68.8 | 72.5 | -3.8 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eastern Kentucky | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 97.0 | 66.5 | +30.5 |
| 2 |  Lipscomb | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60% | 74.8 | 76.4 | -1.6 |
| 3 |  Queens Royals | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60% | 89.2 | 100.2 | -11.0 |
| 4 |  Central Arkansas | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 84.5 | 70.0 | +14.5 |
| 5 |  Austin Peay | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 80.0 | 68.2 | +11.8 |
| 6 |  North Alabama | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 69.8 | 79.0 | -9.2 |
| 7 |  Florida Gulf Coast | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 84.0 | 83.0 | +1.0 |
| 8 |  North Florida | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 64.8 | 85.8 | -21.0 |
| 9 |  Bellarmine | 5 | 1 | 4 | 20% | 70.4 | 83.8 | -13.4 |
| 10 |  West Georgia | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0% | 62.2 | 79.0 | -16.8 |
| 11 |  Stetson | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0% | 60.5 | 83.0 | -22.5 |
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