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Kentucky W vs Morehead State W Result & Analysis

Date: Mon 02 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 23:30
Final 85-42
18-4 24-11 21-13 22-14
Position#57
Record-
FormWLWWL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
Kentucky W 🏆
USA
Vs
98%
■ KENT 98%■ MORE 2%
Pythia win probability
Projected 81-57
Projected total 138.0
Morehead State W
USA
Position#353
Record-
FormLWLLL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
USANCAA Women
Women2026-27
Meetings · Kentucky W v Morehead State W
02 Nov 2026
KENT85
MORE42
03 Nov 2025
KENT75
MORE59
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Kentucky W will host Morehead State W on 2 November 2026 in the NCAA Women competition, and the Pythia model rates Kentucky W as the clear favourite, assigning it a 98% chance of winning and projecting an 81-57 scoreline that totals 138 points, a 1% chance of overtime, and a 2% chance for Morehead State. Kentucky W has played five home games this season, winning three and losing two, while Morehead State has played five away games, winning one and losing four; Kentucky's recent home record includes a 74-73 win over West Virginia and a 71-56 win at home against James Madison, whereas Morehead State's recent away outings include a 58-77 loss to Radford and a 68-73 loss to UALR. In their only prior meeting, Kentucky W beat Morehead State 75-59 on 3 November 2025.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Kentucky W winWon
97.7%fair 1.02
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Morehead State W winLost
2.3%fair 42.89
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 01 Nov 07:04 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Kentucky WUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Ole Miss W
#112
W
74-57
74
57
+17
H15/02
NCAA Women
Vanderbilt W
#17
L
79-81
79
81
-2
A22/02
NCAA Women
Auburn W
#222
W
63-56
63
56
+7
A27/02
NCAA Women
South Carolina W
#11
L
56-60
56
60
-4
H01/03
NCAA Women
Arkansas Razorbacks W
#266
W
94-64
94
64
+30
H04/03
NCAA Women
Georgia W
#84
W
76-61
76
61
+15
A05/03
NCAA Women
South Carolina W
#11
L
64-87
64
87
-23
A06/03
NCAA Women
James Madison W
#54
W
71-56
71
56
+15
H21/03
NCAA Women
West Virginia W
#30
W
74-73
74
73
+1
A23/03
NCAA Women
Texas Longhorns W
#12
L
54-76
54
76
-22
A28/03
NCAA Women
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
17-11
22-9
16-22
19-15
26-24
20-20
19-17
14-20
19-11
16-16
17-11
11-18
13-19
14-14
14-21
15-6
29-10
13-23
28-10
24-21
20-16
15-20
19-13
22-12
16-22
11-22
18-24
19-19
32-10
11-8
13-18
15-20
20-15
16-21
26-14
12-23
11-29
15-19
16-15
12-13
137.6Avg total
70.5Scored
67.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)70.567.1137.6+3.460%
Last 5 (5)67.870.6138.4-2.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)66.975.5142.4-8.612%
vs Similar (7)71.062.6133.6+8.486%
vs Weaker (15)77.459.3136.7+18.180%
Morehead State WUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
SE Missouri State W
#237
W
71-57
71
57
+14
A05/02
NCAA Women
UT Martin W
#244
L
58-64
58
64
-6
A07/02
NCAA Women
Tennessee Tech W
#189
L
58-61
58
61
-3
H12/02
NCAA Women
Tennessee State W
#354
W
79-53
79
53
+26
H14/02
NCAA Women
Eastern Illinois W
#365
W
74-70
74
70
+4
A19/02
NCAA Women
Western Illinois W
#28
L
53-74
53
74
-21
A21/02
NCAA Women
Southern Indiana W
#100
W
73-62
73
62
+11
H24/02
NCAA Women
UALR W
#213
L
68-73
68
73
-5
A26/02
NCAA Women
SE Missouri State W
#237
L
55-60
55
60
-5
H05/03
NCAA Women
Radford W
#114
L
58-77
58
77
-19
A20/03
NCAA Women
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-12
12-19
19-12
19-14
13-14
13-17
18-19
14-14
13-14
12-15
18-23
15-9
19-3
22-18
16-20
22-12
19-15
18-17
12-17
25-21
19-13
10-11
17-22
7-28
11-14
19-16
21-18
22-14
17-17
13-13
24-15
14-28
15-12
16-17
12-11
12-20
19-18
11-25
13-20
15-14
129.8Avg total
64.7Scored
65.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)64.765.1129.8-0.440%
Last 5 (5)61.469.2130.6-7.820%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)60.672.0132.6-11.442%
vs Similar (11)62.761.3124.0+1.555%
vs Weaker (6)67.759.8127.5+7.883%
Over/Under 126Actual: Over 126
Over 126
77.7%
Under 126
22.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 131Actual: Under 131
Over 131
67.1%
Under 131
32.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 136Actual: Under 136
Over 136
54.9%
Under 136
45.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Kentucky W total 66.5Actual: Kentucky W over 66.5
Over 66.5
92.8%
Under 66.5
7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kentucky W total 70.5Actual: Kentucky W over 70.5
Over 70.5
85.5%
Under 70.5
14.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kentucky W total 74.5Actual: Kentucky W over 74.5
Over 74.5
74.4%
Under 74.5
25.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morehead State W total 56.5Actual: Morehead State W under 56.5
Over 56.5
51.8%
Under 56.5
48.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morehead State W total 60.5Actual: Morehead State W under 60.5
Over 60.5
36.1%
Under 60.5
63.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morehead State W total 64.5Actual: Morehead State W under 64.5
Over 64.5
22.4%
Under 64.5
77.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Kentucky W -3Actual: Kentucky W -3
KENT -3
96.6%
MORE +3
3.4%
Best 5 market prices
KENT
No market prices yet.
MORE
No market prices yet.
Spread Kentucky W 0Actual: Kentucky W 0
KENT 0
97.7%
MORE 0
2.3%
Best 5 market prices
KENT
No market prices yet.
MORE
No market prices yet.
Spread Kentucky W +3Actual: Kentucky W +3
KENT +3
98.5%
MORE -3
1.5%
Best 5 market prices
KENT
No market prices yet.
MORE
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +3.6+3.6Q1: +3.4+3.4Q2Q2: -1.9-1.9Q2: -2.2-2.2Q3Q3: +2.1+2.1Q3: -0.7-0.7Q4Q4: -0.4-0.4Q4: -0.9-0.9
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +3.6+3.6Q1: +3.4+3.4Q2Q2: -1.9-1.9Q2: -2.2-2.2Q3Q3: +2.1+2.1Q3: -0.7-0.7Q4Q4: -0.4-0.4Q4: -0.9-0.9
Kentucky WMorehead State W
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Kentucky WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Ole Miss W
#112
W
39-20
39
20
+19
H15/02
NCAA Women
Vanderbilt W
#17
W
46-44
46
44
+2
A22/02
NCAA Women
Auburn W
#222
W
35-27
35
27
+8
A27/02
NCAA Women
South Carolina W
#11
L
27-33
27
33
-6
H01/03
NCAA Women
Arkansas Razorbacks W
#266
W
42-33
42
33
+9
H04/03
NCAA Women
Georgia W
#84
L
35-36
35
36
-1
A05/03
NCAA Women
South Carolina W
#11
L
27-44
27
44
-17
A06/03
NCAA Women
James Madison W
#54
W
43-18
43
18
+25
H21/03
NCAA Women
West Virginia W
#30
D
36-36
36
36
+0
A23/03
NCAA Women
Texas Longhorns W
#12
L
26-48
26
48
-22
A28/03
NCAA Women
69.5Avg total
35.6Scored
33.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.232.068.1+4.260%-
Last 30 at home (14)38.729.468.1+9.371%-
Last 30 away (16)33.934.268.1-0.250%-
Last 10 (10)35.633.969.5+1.750%-
Last 5 (5)33.436.469.8-3.020%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)32.640.172.8-7.525%-
vs Similar (7)35.730.466.1+5.343%-
vs Weaker (15)38.328.366.6+9.987%-
Morehead State WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
SE Missouri State W
#237
W
33-31
33
31
+2
A05/02
NCAA Women
UT Martin W
#244
L
26-31
26
31
-5
A07/02
NCAA Women
Tennessee Tech W
#189
L
25-29
25
29
-4
H12/02
NCAA Women
Tennessee State W
#354
W
41-21
41
21
+20
H14/02
NCAA Women
Eastern Illinois W
#365
W
37-32
37
32
+5
A19/02
NCAA Women
Western Illinois W
#28
W
29-24
29
24
+5
A21/02
NCAA Women
Southern Indiana W
#100
D
30-30
30
30
+0
H24/02
NCAA Women
UALR W
#213
D
30-30
30
30
+0
A26/02
NCAA Women
SE Missouri State W
#237
W
31-29
31
29
+2
H05/03
NCAA Women
Radford W
#114
L
30-43
30
43
-13
A20/03
NCAA Women
61.2Avg total
31.2Scored
30.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)30.129.960.0+0.253%-
Last 30 at home (16)32.427.860.2+4.662%-
Last 30 away (14)27.432.459.8-4.943%-
Last 10 (10)31.230.061.2+1.250%-
Last 5 (5)30.031.261.2-1.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)28.033.561.5-5.542%-
vs Similar (11)28.228.957.1-0.745%-
vs Weaker (6)34.527.061.5+7.583%-
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Kentucky W wins
0
Morehead State W wins
DateGameScore
03/11/25Kentucky W v Morehead State W75-59
Kentucky Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
28/03/26ATexas Longhorns W54-76
23/03/26AWest Virginia W74-73
21/03/26HJames Madison W71-56
06/03/26ASouth Carolina W64-87
05/03/26AGeorgia W76-61
04/03/26HArkansas Razorbacks W94-64
01/03/26HSouth Carolina W56-60
27/02/26AAuburn W63-56
22/02/26AVanderbilt W79-81
15/02/26HOle Miss W74-57
Morehead State Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
20/03/26ARadford W58-77
05/03/26HSE Missouri State W55-60
26/02/26AUALR W68-73
24/02/26HSouthern Indiana W73-62
21/02/26AWestern Illinois W53-74
19/02/26AEastern Illinois W74-70
14/02/26HTennessee State W79-53
12/02/26HTennessee Tech W58-61
07/02/26AUT Martin W58-64
05/02/26ASE Missouri State W71-57

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Kentucky W
NCAA Women 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over main line---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
Morehead State W
NCAA Women 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over main line---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 UMKC W110100%120.040.0+80.0
2 Yale Bulldogs W110100%111.038.0+73.0
3 Louisville W110100%119.047.0+72.0
4 Oakland W110100%104.032.0+72.0
5 South Carolina State W110100%112.042.0+70.0
6 Longwood W110100%96.027.0+69.0
7 Utah Tech W110100%107.039.0+68.0
8 UTRGV W110100%114.047.0+67.0
9 UConn W110100%100.035.0+65.0
10 Western Carolina W110100%96.031.0+65.0
11 Detroit Titans W110100%94.030.0+64.0
12 UMBC Retrievers W110100%92.029.0+63.0
13 George Washington W110100%84.023.0+61.0
14 Samford Bulldogs W110100%102.042.0+60.0
15 New Haven Chargers W110100%103.044.0+59.0
16 Vanderbilt W110100%112.053.0+59.0
17 Vermont W110100%96.037.0+59.0
18 St. John's (N.Y.) W110100%95.037.0+58.0
19 Central Arkansas W110100%97.040.0+57.0
20 Morgan State W110100%103.047.0+56.0
21 Tulane Green Wave W110100%92.038.0+54.0
22 Army W110100%81.028.0+53.0
23 Bryant University W110100%75.025.0+50.0
24 Charleston W110100%92.043.0+49.0
25 New Hampshire Wildcats W110100%87.041.0+46.0
26 Virginia Tech W110100%85.039.0+46.0
27 Montana State W110100%82.038.0+44.0
28 Oklahoma State W110100%81.039.0+42.0
29 Ole Miss W110100%80.038.0+42.0
30 Virginia Cavaliers W110100%87.045.0+42.0
31 Chattanooga Mocs W110100%85.044.0+41.0
32 East Texas A&M Lions W110100%81.040.0+41.0
33 William & Mary W110100%89.048.0+41.0
34 Georgia W110100%92.053.0+39.0
35 Butler W110100%108.071.0+37.0
36 Boise State W110100%84.048.0+36.0
37 Jacksonville St. W110100%75.039.0+36.0
38 Northern Kentucky Norse W110100%84.049.0+35.0
39 Stony Brook W110100%73.039.0+34.0
40 Oregon W110100%87.054.0+33.0
41 USC Trojans W110100%100.068.0+32.0
42 Florida State W110100%81.051.0+30.0
43 Fordham W110100%70.040.0+30.0
44 Kennesaw State W110100%72.042.0+30.0
45 NC State W110100%80.050.0+30.0
46 Nebraska Cornhuskers W110100%81.054.0+27.0
47 South Florida W110100%80.054.0+26.0
48 Southern Mississippi W110100%85.059.0+26.0
49 Idaho Vandals W110100%71.047.0+24.0
50 Notre Dame W110100%99.075.0+24.0
51 UMass Lowell W110100%77.053.0+24.0
52 Florida Gators W110100%83.060.0+23.0
53 Monmouth W110100%63.040.0+23.0
54 Iona W110100%76.054.0+22.0
55 Clemson W110100%68.047.0+21.0
56 Minnesota W110100%82.062.0+20.0
57 UCLA W110100%73.053.0+20.0
58 Utah State W110100%61.045.0+16.0
59 Washington W110100%79.063.0+16.0
60 Austin Peay W110100%62.047.0+15.0
61 Drexel W110100%62.047.0+15.0
62 Georgia Tech W110100%80.065.0+15.0
63 Stanford Cardinal W110100%84.069.0+15.0
64 Coastal Carolina W110100%68.054.0+14.0
65 Mcneese State W110100%65.053.0+12.0
66 Oklahoma Sooners W110100%91.079.0+12.0
67 Coppin State W110100%80.069.0+11.0
68 Siena W110100%82.071.0+11.0
69 Winthrop W110100%57.046.0+11.0
70 Holy Cross W110100%64.054.0+10.0
71 Houston Cougars W110100%73.065.0+8.0
72 South Carolina W110100%101.093.0+8.0
73 Wake Forest W110100%65.058.0+7.0
74 Columbia W110100%71.065.0+6.0
75 NJIT W110100%50.045.0+5.0
76 Marshall Thundering W110100%74.070.0+4.0
77 Old Dominion W110100%62.058.0+4.0
78 Buffalo W110100%82.081.0+1.0
79 Cleveland State W110100%62.061.0+1.0
80 Seattle U Redhawks W110100%63.062.0+1.0
81 South Alabama W110100%75.074.0+1.0
82 Virginia State W110100%63.062.0+1.0
83 Akron W1010%74.075.0-1.0
84 Georgia State W1010%81.082.0-1.0
85 New Mexico W1010%62.063.0-1.0
86 Norfolk State W1010%62.063.0-1.0
87 Penn State W1010%61.062.0-1.0
88 Central Michigan W1010%58.062.0-4.0
89 UMass W1010%70.074.0-4.0
90 Rider Broncs W1010%45.050.0-5.0
91 Davidson W1010%65.071.0-6.0
92 South Carolina Upstate W1010%58.065.0-7.0
93 Hampton W1010%65.073.0-8.0
94 Maryland W1010%93.0101.0-8.0
95 Boston College W1010%54.064.0-10.0
96 Brown Bears W1010%71.082.0-11.0
97 Cheyney Wolves W1010%69.080.0-11.0
98 Newberry W1010%46.057.0-11.0
99 North Carolina W1010%79.091.0-12.0
100 Texas A&M-Kingsville W1010%53.065.0-12.0
101 Western Michigan W1010%54.068.0-14.0
102 Arizona Wildcats W1010%69.084.0-15.0
103 Campbell Fighting Camels W1010%47.062.0-15.0
104 Hofstra W1010%65.080.0-15.0
105 Marist W1010%47.062.0-15.0
106 UC San Diego Tritons W1010%63.079.0-16.0
107 Westminster UT W1010%45.061.0-16.0
108 Harvard Crimson W1010%62.082.0-20.0
109 Lehigh W1010%53.073.0-20.0
110 Radford W1010%47.068.0-21.0
111 Dominican Chargers W1010%54.076.0-22.0
112 Binghamton W1010%40.063.0-23.0
113 Bucknell W1010%60.083.0-23.0
114 St. Anselm Hawks W1010%53.077.0-24.0
115 St. Martin's W1010%47.071.0-24.0
116 Villanova W1010%75.099.0-24.0
117 Furman Paladins W1010%54.080.0-26.0
118 Mississippi Christian W1010%59.085.0-26.0
119 San Jose State W1010%54.081.0-27.0
120 Merrimack Warriors W1010%51.081.0-30.0
121 Niagara W1010%40.070.0-30.0
122 Shorter W1010%42.072.0-30.0
123 Wofford W1010%50.080.0-30.0
124 UNLV Lady Rebels W1010%68.0100.0-32.0
125 Hawaii W1010%54.087.0-33.0
126 Molloy W1010%39.073.0-34.0
127 Defiance College1010%49.084.0-35.0
128 Bushnell W1010%48.084.0-36.0
129 Oglethorpe W1010%39.075.0-36.0
130 Tennessee Tech W1010%71.0108.0-37.0
131 West Georgia W1010%53.092.0-39.0
132 Chowan W1010%48.089.0-41.0
133 Oklahoma Christian W1010%40.081.0-41.0
134 Virginia-Wise W1010%44.085.0-41.0
135 Alcorn State W1010%38.080.0-42.0
136 Md.-East. Shore W1010%45.087.0-42.0
137 Southern Jaguars W1010%39.081.0-42.0
138 Black Hills W1010%38.082.0-44.0
139 N. Carolina Central W1010%39.085.0-46.0
140 New England Pilgrims W1010%41.087.0-46.0
141 Berry Vikings W1010%43.092.0-49.0
142 MIT Engineers W1010%25.075.0-50.0
143 St. Thomas Aquinas W1010%28.081.0-53.0
144 Texas W1010%38.092.0-54.0
145 Washington Adventist W1010%47.0103.0-56.0
146 Hendrix College W1010%40.097.0-57.0
147 Lafayette W1010%37.095.0-58.0
148 Keene State W1010%37.096.0-59.0
149 Lipscomb Bisons W1010%53.0112.0-59.0
150 Mitchell W1010%44.0103.0-59.0
151 Montevallo Falcons W1010%42.0102.0-60.0
152 District of Columbia W1010%23.084.0-61.0
153 Stevenson W1010%29.092.0-63.0
154 Michigan-Dearborn W1010%30.094.0-64.0
155 Carolina University W1010%31.096.0-65.0
156 Cornell W1010%35.0100.0-65.0
157 Arlington Baptist Patriots W1010%47.0114.0-67.0
158 Life Pacific W1010%39.0107.0-68.0
159 Apprentice Builders W1010%27.096.0-69.0
160 Trinity College of Jacksonville W1010%42.0112.0-70.0
161 Bellarmine W1010%47.0119.0-72.0
162 Cleary University W1010%32.0104.0-72.0
163 Elms College W1010%38.0111.0-73.0
164 Baker Wildcats W1010%40.0120.0-80.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 164 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Kentucky W1824212285
Morehead State W411131442
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