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Leones Quilpue vs CD Puerto Varas Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 08 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 23:00
Projected 87-70
Projected total 156.8
Final 74-62
28-13 8-17 19-13 19-19
Position#2
Record39-11
FormLWWWW
Points / game82.9
Allowed / game75.8
Vs
93%
■ LEON 93%■ CD P 7%
Pythia win probability
Position#7
Record24-29
FormLWLWL
Points / game78.2
Allowed / game81.9
ChileLNBLNB - Quarter-finals· Gimnasio Colegio Los Leones
Other2026-27
Meetings · Leones Quilpue v CD Puerto Varas
08 Nov 2026
LEON74
CD P62
07 Nov 2026
LEON97
CD P69
08 Oct 2026
LEON98
CD P84
20 May 2025
LEON73
CD P70
19 May 2025
LEON66
CD P63
06 Mar 2025
LEON89
CD P56
09 Mar 2024
LEON84
CD P71
08 Apr 2023
LEON92
CD P51
16 Apr 2022
LEON85
CD P78
11 Jan 2020
LEON85
CD P74
21 Dec 2018
LEON79
CD P86
19 Dec 2015
LEON81
CD P87
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Leones Quilpue host CD Puerto Varas on 8 November 2026 in the LNB, and the Pythia model names the Quilpue as the clear favourite, rating them 93% to win largely because of their 39-11 record, 82.9 points scored per game and 75.8 allowed, placing them third in the league, while Puerto Varas sit 7th with a 24-29 record, 78.2 points scored and 81.9 allowed; the Quilpue have also dominated the last ten meetings, winning eight of ten and most recently beating Puerto Varas 97-69 on 7 November, and they have won four of their last five games, including a 97-69 home win, a 89-68 away win and an 86-61 away win, whereas Puerto Varas have won only two of their last five, with losses to Quilpue on 7 November and 31 October and a win over Español Osorno at home; the model projects a 87-70 score for a 156.8 total, with a -18.5 spread that Quilpue cover 44% of the time, an over line of 154.5 with a 55% chance of exceeding it, and a 2% chance of overtime.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Leones Quilpue winWon
92.8%fair 1.08
Best odds1.05
Implied86.2%
Edge+6.6pp
CD Puerto Varas winLost
7.2%fair 13.80
Best odds10.50
Implied13.8%
Edge-6.6pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 08 Nov 07:04 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Leones QuilpueChileLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormQuilpue
Date
Competition
Espanol Osorno
#6
W
81-61
81
61
+20
77avg 76
H01/10
LNB
Ancud
#10
W
85-75
85
75
+10
85avg 76
H07/10
LNB
CD Puerto Varas
#7
W
98-84
98
84
+14
99avg 76
H08/10
LNB
Puerto Montt
#9
W
75-54
75
54
+21
69avg 76
H10/10
LNB
Puente Alto
#4
W
90-66
90
66
+24
84avg 76
H23/10
LNB
U. De Concepcion
#1
L
64-89
64
89
-25
50avg 76
A25/10
LNB
Ancud
#10
W
91-81
91
81
+10
87avg 76
A29/10
LNB
CD Puerto Varas
#7
W
86-61
86
61
+25
72avg 76
A31/10
LNB
Puerto Montt
#9
W
89-68
89
68
+21
no box
A01/11
LNB
CD Puerto Varas
#7
W
97-69
97
69
+28
no box
H07/11
LNB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
33-7
17-12
19-14
12-28
18-15
25-17
20-17
22-26
25-19
26-16
31-19
16-30
15-16
18-15
24-13
18-10
25-8
24-15
18-23
23-20
14-15
14-29
16-22
20-23
29-12
21-19
24-22
17-28
17-11
29-13
17-14
23-23
20-23
22-12
21-21
26-12
29-25
15-11
24-19
29-14
156.4Avg total
85.6Scored
70.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (50)82.975.8158.7+7.178%
Season at home (25)83.073.1156.0+9.984%
Season away (25)82.878.5161.3+4.372%
Last 10 (10)85.670.8156.4+14.890%
Last 5 (5)85.473.6159.0+11.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)77.481.5158.9-4.150%
vs Similarno games
vs Weaker ◀ (20)85.869.4155.2+16.4100%
This opponent (CD Puerto Varas) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
CD Puerto VarasChileLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormVaras
Date
Competition
U. De Concepcion
#1
L
91-98
91
98
-7
81avg 71
H03/10
LNB
Puente Alto
#4
L
76-89
76
89
-13
64avg 71
A07/10
LNB
Leones Quilpue
#2
L
84-98
84
98
-14
75avg 71
A08/10
LNB
Puente Alto
#4
L
70-75
70
75
-5
53avg 71
H14/10
LNB
Valdivia
#3
L
61-103
61
103
-42
37avg 71
H18/10
LNB
Valdivia
#3
L
83-96
83
96
-13
74avg 71
A24/10
LNB
Espanol Osorno
#6
W
78-69
78
69
+9
67avg 71
A26/10
LNB
Leones Quilpue
#2
L
61-86
61
86
-25
50avg 71
H31/10
LNB
Espanol Osorno
#6
W
82-68
82
68
+14
no box
H01/11
LNB
Leones Quilpue
#2
L
69-97
69
97
-28
no box
A07/11
LNB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-23
19-19
25-23
22-33
18-28
21-21
21-25
16-15
19-25
16-26
19-31
30-16
15-25
16-18
16-11
23-21
18-26
12-27
18-28
13-22
22-22
12-28
23-26
26-20
10-19
21-17
16-18
31-15
11-17
13-29
14-17
23-23
13-19
41-16
16-20
12-13
25-29
11-15
19-24
14-29
163.4Avg total
75.5Scored
87.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (53)78.281.9160.2-3.745%
Season at home (26)80.879.2160.0+1.665%
Season away (27)75.784.6160.3-8.926%
Last 10 (10)75.587.9163.4-12.420%
Last 5 (5)74.683.2157.8-8.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (13)73.192.8165.8-19.78%
vs Similar (15)76.677.3153.9-0.747%
vs Weaker (2)89.568.0157.5+21.5100%
This opponent (Leones Quilpue) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 149.5Actual: Under 149.5
Over 149.5
67.1%
Under 149.5
32.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 154.5 · main lineActual: Under 154.5
Over 154.5
55.3%
@ 1.85+5.3pp
Under 154.5
44.7%
@ 1.85-5.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
WilliamHill
1.85
Betano
1.82
1xBet
1.75
Under
WilliamHill
1.85
1xBet
1.84
Betano
1.82
Over/Under 159.5Actual: Under 159.5
Over 159.5
43.0%
Under 159.5
57.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Leones Quilpue total 83.5Actual: Leones Quilpue under 83.5
Over 83.5
63.3%
@ 1.49+5.0pp
Under 83.5
36.7%
@ 2.08-5.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.49
Under
1xBet
2.08
Leones Quilpue total 87.5 · main lineActual: Leones Quilpue under 87.5
Over 87.5
47.3%
@ 1.95+0.1pp
Under 87.5
52.7%
@ 1.83-0.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.95
Bet365
1.83
Under
Bet365
1.83
1xBet
1.56
Leones Quilpue total 91.5Actual: Leones Quilpue under 91.5
Over 91.5
31.8%
Under 91.5
68.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CD Puerto Varas total 65Actual: CD Puerto Varas under 65
Over 65
69.2%
Under 65
30.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CD Puerto Varas total 69 · main lineActual: CD Puerto Varas under 69
Over 69
53.4%
@ 1.71+3.1pp
Under 69
46.6%
@ 1.73-3.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.71
Under
1xBet
1.73
CD Puerto Varas total 73Actual: CD Puerto Varas under 73
Over 73
37.1%
Under 73
62.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Leones Quilpue -21.5Actual: CD Puerto Varas +21.5
LEON -21.5
34.0%
CD P +21.5
66.0%
Best 5 market prices
LEON
No market prices yet.
CD P
No market prices yet.
Spread Leones Quilpue -18.5 · main lineActual: CD Puerto Varas +18.5
LEON -18.5
44.2%
@ 2.03-2.6pp
CD P +18.5
55.8%
@ 1.83+2.6pp
Best 5 market prices
LEON
1xBet
2.03
Bet365
1.83
CD P
Bet365
1.83
1xBet
1.56
Spread Leones Quilpue -15.5Actual: CD Puerto Varas +15.5
LEON -15.5
54.8%
@ 1.64+0.9pp
CD P +15.5
45.2%
@ 1.92-0.9pp
Best 5 market prices
LEON
1xBet
1.64
CD P
1xBet
1.92

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-9-5+0+5+9Q1Q1: +7.4+7.4Q1: -5.7-5.7Q2Q2: +5.2+5.2Q2: -3.4-3.4Q3Q3: +3.0+3.0Q3: -3.6-3.6Q4Q4: -0.8-0.8Q4: +0.3+0.3
-9-5+0+5+9Q1Q1: +7.4+7.4Q1: -5.7-5.7Q2Q2: +5.2+5.2Q2: -3.4-3.4Q3Q3: +3.0+3.0Q3: -3.6-3.6Q4Q4: -0.8-0.8Q4: +0.3+0.3
Leones QuilpueCD Puerto Varas
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Leones QuilpueLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Espanol Osorno
#6
W
50-19
50
19
+31
H01/10
LNB
Ancud
#10
W
43-32
43
32
+11
H07/10
LNB
CD Puerto Varas
#7
W
51-35
51
35
+16
H08/10
LNB
Puerto Montt
#9
W
33-31
33
31
+2
H10/10
LNB
Puente Alto
#4
W
49-23
49
23
+26
H23/10
LNB
U. De Concepcion
#1
L
28-44
28
44
-16
A25/10
LNB
Ancud
#10
W
50-31
50
31
+19
A29/10
LNB
CD Puerto Varas
#7
W
46-24
46
24
+22
A31/10
LNB
Puerto Montt
#9
W
42-35
42
35
+7
A01/11
LNB
CD Puerto Varas
#7
W
44-36
44
36
+8
H07/11
LNB
74.6Avg total
43.6Scored
31.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 78.5
Last 30 (30)43.134.978.0+8.283%50%
Last 30 at home (16)44.233.177.4+11.194%56%
Last 30 away (14)41.836.978.7+4.971%43%
Last 10 (10)43.631.074.6+12.690%30%
Last 5 (5)42.034.076.0+8.080%40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)40.141.381.4-1.260%70%
vs Similarno games
vs Weaker ◀ (20)44.631.776.3+12.995%40%
This opponent (CD Puerto Varas) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
CD Puerto VarasLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
U. De Concepcion
#1
W
44-42
44
42
+2
H03/10
LNB
Puente Alto
#4
L
39-49
39
49
-10
A07/10
LNB
Leones Quilpue
#2
L
35-51
35
51
-16
A08/10
LNB
Puente Alto
#4
L
31-43
31
43
-12
H14/10
LNB
Valdivia
#3
L
30-53
30
53
-23
H18/10
LNB
Valdivia
#3
L
34-50
34
50
-16
A24/10
LNB
Espanol Osorno
#6
L
31-36
31
36
-5
A26/10
LNB
Leones Quilpue
#2
L
24-46
24
46
-22
H31/10
LNB
Espanol Osorno
#6
W
54-35
54
35
+19
H01/11
LNB
Leones Quilpue
#2
L
36-44
36
44
-8
A07/11
LNB
80.7Avg total
35.8Scored
44.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 78.5
Last 30 (30)37.242.980.1-5.740%60%
Last 30 at home (14)40.441.281.6-0.864%64%
Last 30 away (16)34.344.478.7-10.119%56%
Last 10 (10)35.844.980.7-9.120%70%
Last 5 (5)35.842.278.0-6.420%60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (13)34.648.182.7-13.515%69%
vs Similar (15)39.539.979.4-0.553%60%
vs Weaker (2)36.531.568.0+5.0100%0%
This opponent (Leones Quilpue) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winnerActual: Leones Quilpue win
LEON win
no forecast
@ 1.16
CD P win
no forecast
@ 6.20
1st half Spread Leones Quilpue -9.5 · main lineActual: CD Puerto Varas +9.5
LEON -9.5
no forecast
@ 1.83
CD P +9.5
no forecast
@ 1.83
1st half Over/Under 78.5 · main lineActual: Under 78.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.86
Under
no forecast
@ 1.80
Leones Quilpue 1st half total 43.5 · main lineActual: Leones Quilpue under 43.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.80
Under
no forecast
@ 1.91
CD Puerto Varas 1st half total 34.5 · main lineActual: CD Puerto Varas under 34.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.86
Under
no forecast
@ 1.80
1st half: LEON + total 78.5
LEON & over
no forecast
@ 2.35
LEON & under
no forecast
@ 2.20
1st half: Draw + total 78.5
Draw & over
no forecast
@ 41.00
Draw & under
no forecast
@ 36.00
1st half: CD P + total 78.5
CD P & over
no forecast
@ 9.00
CD P & under
no forecast
@ 8.50
1st half Spread Leones Quilpue -10.5Actual: CD Puerto Varas +10.5
LEON -10.5
no forecast
@ 1.78
CD P +10.5
no forecast
@ 1.91
1st half Over/Under 76.5Actual: Under 76.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.80
Under
no forecast
@ 1.87
1st half Spread Leones Quilpue -11.5Actual: CD Puerto Varas +11.5
LEON -11.5
no forecast
@ 1.87
CD P +11.5
no forecast
@ 1.80
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Leones Quilpue (regulation)
LEON
no forecast
@ 1.20
Draw
no forecast
@ 23.00
CD P
no forecast
@ 6.50

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
LEON win + total 154.5
🔒 Pro
CD P win + total 154.5
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: LEON leads at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: level at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: CD P leads at half
🔒 Pro
Team with the highest-scoring quarter
🔒 Pro
Highest-scoring half
🔒 Pro
Quarters won (LEON:CD P): LEON wins more
🔒 Pro
🔒 8 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Leones Quilpue win92.8%1.03
WilliamHill
1.05
Betano
1.05
Betfair
1.04
1xBet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
+6.6ppWon
Leones Quilpue (regulation)91.6%1.02
1xBet
1.02
----+6.4ppWon
Leones Quilpue over 81.570.6%1.36
1xBet
1.36
----+5.8ppLost
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Leones Quilpuetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Leones Quilpue: 83.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀44%
🏀🏀🏀42%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.4 pts a game · 44% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers34.8 pts a game · 42% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.8 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.2 points a game
51%
31%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers33.718.2
54.0%
52.2%36.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.111.6
35.0%
31.9%34.8
🏀 Free throws17.611.8
67.0%
71.0%11.8
They take 66.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 33.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 50% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
CD Puerto Varastheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

CD Puerto Varas: 73.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀57%
🏀🏀🏀24%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.8 pts a game · 57% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers18.0 pts a game · 24% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.0 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.2 points a game
51%
31%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.120.9
53.5%
52.2%41.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.76.0
24.3%
31.9%18.0
🏀 Free throws18.914.0
74.1%
71.0%14.0
They take 63.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 08 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Leones Quilpue
WWWWLWWWWW
CD Puerto Varas
LWLWLLLLLL
#2
League position
#7
+24.1
Net rating
-20.9
95.6
Offensive rating
77.6
71.5
Defensive rating
98.5
53.3%
Effective FG%
46.9%
43.0%
Opp. effective FG%
52.7%
14.6%
Turnover %
15.0%
0.26
Free-throw rate
0.30
35.0%
3-point %
24.3%
58.1%
Assist %
51.3%
90%
Form (last 10/10)
20%

Profile

Offence95.6 · 77.6Defence71.5 · 98.5Shooting53.3% · 46.9%3-point %35.0% · 24.3%Ball care14.6% · 15.0%Free throws0.26 · 0.30Form (last 10/10)90% · 20%
■ Leones Quilpue   ■ CD Puerto Varas
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

DateH/AOpponentScore
07/11/26HCD Puerto Varas97-69
01/11/26APuerto Montt89-68
31/10/26ACD Puerto Varas86-61
29/10/26AAncud91-81
25/10/26AU. De Concepcion64-89
23/10/26HPuente Alto90-66
10/10/26HPuerto Montt75-54
08/10/26HCD Puerto Varas98-84
07/10/26HAncud85-75
01/10/26HEspanol Osorno81-61
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/11/26ALeones Quilpue69-97
01/11/26HEspanol Osorno82-68
31/10/26HLeones Quilpue61-86
26/10/26AEspanol Osorno78-69
24/10/26AValdivia83-96
18/10/26HValdivia61-103
14/10/26HPuente Alto70-75
08/10/26ALeones Quilpue84-98
07/10/26APuente Alto76-89
03/10/26HU. De Concepcion91-98

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Leones Quilpue
LNB 2026-27
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWW78%
HomeWWWWW84%
AwayWLWWW72%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games502525
Win %78%84%72%
Points / game82.983.082.8
Allowed / game75.873.178.5
Point differential+7.1+9.9+4.3
Avg total158.7156.0161.3
Over 154.566%60%72%
Win by 10+52%60%44%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (9)100% (3)100% (6)
Overtime %2%4%0%
CD Puerto Varas
LNB 2026-27
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWL45%
HomeLLLLW65%
AwayLLLWL26%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games532627
Win %45%65%26%
Points / game78.280.875.7
Allowed / game81.979.284.6
Point differential-3.7+1.6-8.9
Avg total160.2160.0160.3
Over 154.558%54%63%
Win by 10+15%27%4%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (18)75% (12)50% (6)
Overtime %2%0%4%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 U. De Concepcion4638883%93.078.0+15.0
2 Valdivia46361078%86.875.2+11.7
3 Leones Quilpue50391178%82.975.8+7.1
4 Puente Alto45242153%81.380.3+1.0
5 Las Animas38201853%84.280.6+3.6
6 Espanol Osorno50252550%78.478.4+0.0
7 CD Puerto Varas53242945%78.281.9-3.7
8 Boston C. C.1881044%82.393.7-11.4
9 Puerto Montt44192543%78.381.1-2.8
10 Ancud43152835%80.383.7-3.3
11 Catolica34112332%76.482.7-6.4
12 Naviera Ulloa34102429%78.188.1-10.0
13 Colo Colo35102529%78.681.6-3.0
14 Espanol de Talca3252716%76.189.6-13.5
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Leones Quilpue288191974
CD Puerto Varas1317131962
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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