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Leones Quilpue vs CD Puerto Varas Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 07 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 23:30
Projected 87-70
Projected total 157.0
Final 97-69
29-25 15-11 24-19 29-14
Position#2
Record38-11
FormWLWWW
Points / game82.6
Allowed / game75.9
Vs
93%
■ LEON 93%■ CD P 7%
Pythia win probability
Position#7
Record24-28
FormLLWLW
Points / game78.4
Allowed / game81.7
ChileLNBLNB - Quarter-finals· Gimnasio Colegio Los Leones
Other2026-27
Meetings · Leones Quilpue v CD Puerto Varas
08 Nov 2026
LEON74
CD P62
07 Nov 2026
LEON97
CD P69
08 Oct 2026
LEON98
CD P84
20 May 2025
LEON73
CD P70
19 May 2025
LEON66
CD P63
06 Mar 2025
LEON89
CD P56
09 Mar 2024
LEON84
CD P71
08 Apr 2023
LEON92
CD P51
16 Apr 2022
LEON85
CD P78
11 Jan 2020
LEON85
CD P74
21 Dec 2018
LEON79
CD P86
19 Dec 2015
LEON81
CD P87
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Leones Quilpue host CD Puerto Varas on 7 November 2026 in the LNB, and the Pythia model names Leones Quilpue as the clear favourite, rating them 93% to win largely because of their 38-11 record, 82.6 points per game and only 75.9 allowed, placing them third in the league, while CD Puerto Varas sit 24-28 with 78.4 points per game and 81.7 allowed, seventh in the standings. Leones Quilpue have gone 20-4 at home, averaging 82.4 points and conceding 73.2, and are 4-1 in their last five games, including a 89-68 win over Puerto Montt, a 86-61 win over CD Puerto Varas and a 91-81 win over Ancud; CD Puerto Varas are 7-19 on the road, 76.0 points per game, 84.1 allowed, 2-3 in their last five, with a recent 82-68 win over Espanol Osorno and a 78-69 win away. In their ten meetings Leones Quilpue have won eight, most recently defeating CD Puerto Varas 86-61 on 31 October. The Pythia model projects a 87-70 score, 157 total points, a 93% chance for Leones Quilpue to win and a 7% chance for CD Puerto Varas, a home line of -18.5 with a 43% probability of covering, and a 2% chance of overtime. The game will likely see Leones Quilpue extend their home dominance.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Leones Quilpue winWon
92.5%fair 1.08
Best odds1.08
Implied85.3%
Edge+7.2pp
CD Puerto Varas winLost
7.5%fair 13.37
Best odds9.50
Implied14.7%
Edge-7.2pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 06 Nov 07:38 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Leones QuilpueChileLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormQuilpue
Date
Competition
Valdivia
#3
W
78-65
78
65
+13
61avg 76
H01/10
LNB
Espanol Osorno
#6
W
81-61
81
61
+20
77avg 76
H01/10
LNB
Ancud
#10
W
85-75
85
75
+10
85avg 76
H07/10
LNB
CD Puerto Varas
#7
W
98-84
98
84
+14
99avg 76
H08/10
LNB
Puerto Montt
#9
W
75-54
75
54
+21
69avg 76
H10/10
LNB
Puente Alto
#4
W
90-66
90
66
+24
84avg 76
H23/10
LNB
U. De Concepcion
#1
L
64-89
64
89
-25
50avg 76
A25/10
LNB
Ancud
#10
W
91-81
91
81
+10
87avg 76
A29/10
LNB
CD Puerto Varas
#7
W
86-61
86
61
+25
72avg 76
A31/10
LNB
Puerto Montt
#9
W
89-68
89
68
+21
no box
A01/11
LNB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
27-15
18-27
18-11
15-12
33-7
17-12
19-14
12-28
18-15
25-17
20-17
22-26
25-19
26-16
31-19
16-30
15-16
18-15
24-13
18-10
25-8
24-15
18-23
23-20
14-15
14-29
16-22
20-23
29-12
21-19
24-22
17-28
17-11
29-13
17-14
23-23
20-23
22-12
21-21
26-12
154.1Avg total
83.7Scored
70.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (49)82.675.9158.5+6.778%
Season at home (24)82.473.2155.6+9.183%
Season away (25)82.878.5161.3+4.372%
Last 10 (10)83.770.4154.1+13.390%
Last 5 (5)84.073.0157.0+11.080%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)78.782.1160.8-3.455%
vs Similarno games
vs Weaker ◀ (19)85.269.4154.6+15.8100%
This opponent (CD Puerto Varas) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
CD Puerto VarasChileLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormVaras
Date
Competition
Ancud
#10
W
73-72
73
72
+1
66avg 71
H02/10
LNB
U. De Concepcion
#1
L
91-98
91
98
-7
81avg 71
H03/10
LNB
Puente Alto
#4
L
76-89
76
89
-13
64avg 71
A07/10
LNB
Leones Quilpue
#2
L
84-98
84
98
-14
75avg 71
A08/10
LNB
Puente Alto
#4
L
70-75
70
75
-5
53avg 71
H14/10
LNB
Valdivia
#3
L
61-103
61
103
-42
37avg 71
H18/10
LNB
Valdivia
#3
L
83-96
83
96
-13
74avg 71
A24/10
LNB
Espanol Osorno
#6
W
78-69
78
69
+9
67avg 71
A26/10
LNB
Leones Quilpue
#2
L
61-86
61
86
-25
50avg 71
H31/10
LNB
Espanol Osorno
#6
W
82-68
82
68
+14
no box
H01/11
LNB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-14
22-22
15-20
16-16
25-23
19-19
25-23
22-33
18-28
21-21
21-25
16-15
19-25
16-26
19-31
30-16
15-25
16-18
16-11
23-21
18-26
12-27
18-28
13-22
22-22
12-28
23-26
26-20
10-19
21-17
16-18
31-15
11-17
13-29
14-17
23-23
13-19
41-16
16-20
12-13
161.3Avg total
75.9Scored
85.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (52)78.481.7160.0-3.346%
Season at home (26)80.879.2160.0+1.665%
Season away (26)76.084.1160.1-8.127%
Last 10 (10)75.985.4161.3-9.530%
Last 5 (5)73.084.4157.4-11.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (12)73.492.4165.8-19.08%
vs Similar (16)75.676.4152.0-0.844%
vs Weaker (2)89.568.0157.5+21.5100%
This opponent (Leones Quilpue) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 150Actual: Over 150
Over 150
66.9%
Under 150
33.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 155.25 · main lineActual: Over 155.25
Over 155.25
no forecast
@ 1.81
Under 155.25
no forecast
@ 1.80
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.81
Under
1xBet
1.80
Over/Under 160Actual: Over 160
Over 160
42.2%
Under 160
57.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Leones Quilpue total 82Actual: Leones Quilpue over 82
Over 82
69.6%
Under 82
30.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leones Quilpue total 86 · main lineActual: Leones Quilpue over 86
Over 86
53.6%
@ 1.74+4.2pp
Under 86
46.4%
@ 1.70-4.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.74
Under
1xBet
1.70
Leones Quilpue total 90Actual: Leones Quilpue over 90
Over 90
37.0%
Under 90
63.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CD Puerto Varas total 64.5Actual: CD Puerto Varas over 64.5
Over 64.5
71.1%
@ 1.36+6.6pp
Under 64.5
28.9%
@ 2.47-6.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.36
Under
1xBet
2.47
CD Puerto Varas total 68.5 · main lineActual: CD Puerto Varas over 68.5
Over 68.5
56.1%
@ 1.87+6.1pp
Under 68.5
43.9%
@ 1.83-6.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.87
Bet365
1.83
1xBet
1.65
Under
Bet365
1.83
1xBet
1.80
Betano
1.78
CD Puerto Varas total 72.5Actual: CD Puerto Varas under 72.5
Over 72.5
40.3%
@ 2.28+2.1pp
Under 72.5
59.7%
@ 1.41-2.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.28
Under
1xBet
1.41

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Leones Quilpue -21.5Actual: Leones Quilpue -21.5
LEON -21.5
33.3%
@ 2.22-6.6pp
CD P +21.5
66.7%
@ 1.47+6.6pp
Best 5 market prices
LEON
1xBet
2.22
CD P
1xBet
1.47
Spread Leones Quilpue -18.5 · main lineActual: Leones Quilpue -18.5
LEON -18.5
43.4%
@ 2.03-6.6pp
CD P +18.5
56.6%
@ 1.91+6.6pp
Best 5 market prices
LEON
1xBet
2.03
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.82
Betfair
1.80
CD P
Betfair
1.91
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.82
1xBet
1.56
Spread Leones Quilpue -15.5Actual: Leones Quilpue -15.5
LEON -15.5
54.1%
@ 1.87+4.4pp
CD P +15.5
45.9%
@ 1.92-4.4pp
Best 5 market prices
LEON
SBO
1.87
Pinnacle
1.81
1xBet
1.64
CD P
1xBet
1.92
SBO
1.87
Pinnacle
1.79

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-10-5+0+5+10Q1Q1: +8.2+8.2Q1: -4.7-4.7Q2Q2: +3.9+3.9Q2: -3.0-3.0Q3Q3: +3.2+3.2Q3: -3.6-3.6Q4Q4: -2.0-2.0Q4: +1.8+1.8
-10-5+0+5+10Q1Q1: +8.2+8.2Q1: -4.7-4.7Q2Q2: +3.9+3.9Q2: -3.0-3.0Q3Q3: +3.2+3.2Q3: -3.6-3.6Q4Q4: -2.0-2.0Q4: +1.8+1.8
Leones QuilpueCD Puerto Varas
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Leones QuilpueLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Valdivia
#3
W
45-42
45
42
+3
H01/10
LNB
Espanol Osorno
#6
W
50-19
50
19
+31
H01/10
LNB
Ancud
#10
W
43-32
43
32
+11
H07/10
LNB
CD Puerto Varas
#7
W
51-35
51
35
+16
H08/10
LNB
Puerto Montt
#9
W
33-31
33
31
+2
H10/10
LNB
Puente Alto
#4
W
49-23
49
23
+26
H23/10
LNB
U. De Concepcion
#1
L
28-44
28
44
-16
A25/10
LNB
Ancud
#10
W
50-31
50
31
+19
A29/10
LNB
CD Puerto Varas
#7
W
46-24
46
24
+22
A31/10
LNB
Puerto Montt
#9
W
42-35
42
35
+7
A01/11
LNB
75.3Avg total
43.7Scored
31.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 77.5
Last 30 (30)43.135.378.4+7.880%50%
Last 30 at home (15)44.332.977.2+11.393%53%
Last 30 away (15)41.937.779.5+4.267%47%
Last 10 (10)43.731.675.3+12.190%30%
Last 5 (5)43.031.474.4+11.680%20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)40.441.982.3-1.555%73%
vs Similarno games
vs Weaker ◀ (19)44.631.576.1+13.295%37%
This opponent (CD Puerto Varas) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
CD Puerto VarasLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Ancud
#10
W
42-36
42
36
+6
H02/10
LNB
U. De Concepcion
#1
W
44-42
44
42
+2
H03/10
LNB
Puente Alto
#4
L
39-49
39
49
-10
A07/10
LNB
Leones Quilpue
#2
L
35-51
35
51
-16
A08/10
LNB
Puente Alto
#4
L
31-43
31
43
-12
H14/10
LNB
Valdivia
#3
L
30-53
30
53
-23
H18/10
LNB
Valdivia
#3
L
34-50
34
50
-16
A24/10
LNB
Espanol Osorno
#6
L
31-36
31
36
-5
A26/10
LNB
Leones Quilpue
#2
L
24-46
24
46
-22
H31/10
LNB
Espanol Osorno
#6
W
54-35
54
35
+19
H01/11
LNB
80.5Avg total
36.4Scored
44.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 77.5
Last 30 (30)37.242.880.0-5.640%67%
Last 30 at home (15)40.341.281.5-0.960%73%
Last 30 away (15)34.244.478.6-10.220%60%
Last 10 (10)36.444.180.5-7.730%70%
Last 5 (5)34.644.078.6-9.420%60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (12)34.548.482.9-13.917%75%
vs Similar (16)39.440.079.4-0.650%69%
vs Weaker (2)36.531.568.0+5.0100%0%
This opponent (Leones Quilpue) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winnerActual: Leones Quilpue win
LEON win
no forecast
@ 1.20
CD P win
no forecast
@ 4.89
1st half Spread Leones Quilpue -8.5 · main lineActual: CD Puerto Varas +8.5
LEON -8.5
no forecast
@ 1.83
CD P +8.5
no forecast
@ 1.87
1st half Over/Under 77.5 · main lineActual: Over 77.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.83
Under
no forecast
@ 1.83
Leones Quilpue 1st half total 42.5 · main lineActual: Leones Quilpue over 42.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.80
Under
no forecast
@ 1.87
CD Puerto Varas 1st half total 34.5 · main lineActual: CD Puerto Varas over 34.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.83
Under
no forecast
@ 1.83
1st half: LEON + total 77.5
LEON & over
no forecast
@ 2.35
LEON & under
no forecast
@ 2.35
1st half: Draw + total 77.5
Draw & over
no forecast
@ 36.00
Draw & under
no forecast
@ 36.00
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Leones Quilpue (regulation)
LEON
no forecast
@ 1.23
Draw
no forecast
@ 22.00
CD P
no forecast
@ 4.45

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
LEON win + total 155.5
🔒 Pro
CD P win + total 155.5
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: LEON leads at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: level at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: CD P leads at half
🔒 Pro
Team with the highest-scoring quarter
🔒 Pro
Highest-scoring half
🔒 Pro
Quarters won (LEON:CD P): LEON wins more
🔒 Pro
🔒 8 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Leones Quilpue win92.5%1.04
Betano
1.08
WilliamHill
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.04
1xBet
1.02
+7.2ppWon
CD Puerto Varas over 64.571.1%1.36
1xBet
1.36
----+6.6ppWon
Leones Quilpue (regulation)91.4%1.02
1xBet
1.02
----+6.2ppWon
Leones Quilpue over 81.570.7%1.36
1xBet
1.36
----+6.0ppWon
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Leones Quilpuetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Leones Quilpue: 83.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀44%
🏀🏀🏀42%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.4 pts a game · 44% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers34.8 pts a game · 42% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.8 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.2 points a game
51%
31%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers33.718.2
54.0%
52.2%36.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.111.6
35.0%
31.9%34.8
🏀 Free throws17.611.8
67.0%
71.0%11.8
They take 66.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 33.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 50% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
CD Puerto Varastheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

CD Puerto Varas: 73.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀57%
🏀🏀🏀24%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.8 pts a game · 57% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers18.0 pts a game · 24% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.0 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.2 points a game
51%
31%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.120.9
53.5%
52.2%41.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.76.0
24.3%
31.9%18.0
🏀 Free throws18.914.0
74.1%
71.0%14.0
They take 63.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 07 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Leones Quilpue
WWWLWWWWWW
CD Puerto Varas
WLWLLLLLLW
#2
League position
#7
+24.1
Net rating
-20.9
95.6
Offensive rating
77.6
71.5
Defensive rating
98.5
53.3%
Effective FG%
46.9%
43.0%
Opp. effective FG%
52.7%
14.6%
Turnover %
15.0%
0.26
Free-throw rate
0.30
35.0%
3-point %
24.3%
58.1%
Assist %
51.3%
90%
Form (last 10/10)
30%

Profile

Offence95.6 · 77.6Defence71.5 · 98.5Shooting53.3% · 46.9%3-point %35.0% · 24.3%Ball care14.6% · 15.0%Free throws0.26 · 0.30Form (last 10/10)90% · 30%
■ Leones Quilpue   ■ CD Puerto Varas
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

DateH/AOpponentScore
01/11/26APuerto Montt89-68
31/10/26ACD Puerto Varas86-61
29/10/26AAncud91-81
25/10/26AU. De Concepcion64-89
23/10/26HPuente Alto90-66
10/10/26HPuerto Montt75-54
08/10/26HCD Puerto Varas98-84
07/10/26HAncud85-75
01/10/26HEspanol Osorno81-61
01/10/26HValdivia78-65
DateH/AOpponentScore
01/11/26HEspanol Osorno82-68
31/10/26HLeones Quilpue61-86
26/10/26AEspanol Osorno78-69
24/10/26AValdivia83-96
18/10/26HValdivia61-103
14/10/26HPuente Alto70-75
08/10/26ALeones Quilpue84-98
07/10/26APuente Alto76-89
03/10/26HU. De Concepcion91-98
02/10/26HAncud73-72

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Leones Quilpue
LNB 2026-27
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWW78%
HomeWWWWW83%
AwayWLWWW72%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games492425
Win %78%83%72%
Points / game82.682.482.8
Allowed / game75.973.278.5
Point differential+6.7+9.1+4.3
Avg total158.5155.6161.3
Over 155.2561%54%68%
Win by 10+51%58%44%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (9)100% (3)100% (6)
Overtime %2%4%0%
CD Puerto Varas
LNB 2026-27
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWLW46%
HomeLLLLW65%
AwayLLLLW27%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games522626
Win %46%65%27%
Points / game78.480.876.0
Allowed / game81.779.284.1
Point differential-3.3+1.6-8.1
Avg total160.0160.0160.1
Over 155.2556%50%62%
Win by 10+15%27%4%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (18)75% (12)50% (6)
Overtime %2%0%4%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 U. De Concepcion4638883%93.078.0+15.0
2 Valdivia46361078%86.875.2+11.7
3 Leones Quilpue49381178%82.675.9+6.7
4 Puente Alto44242055%81.680.1+1.5
5 Las Animas38201853%84.280.6+3.6
6 Espanol Osorno50252550%78.478.4+0.0
7 CD Puerto Varas52242846%78.481.7-3.3
8 Boston C. C.1881044%82.393.7-11.4
9 Puerto Montt43182542%78.081.4-3.4
10 Ancud43152835%80.383.7-3.3
11 Catolica34112332%76.482.7-6.4
12 Naviera Ulloa34102429%78.188.1-10.0
13 Colo Colo35102529%78.681.6-3.0
14 Espanol de Talca3252716%76.189.6-13.5
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Leones Quilpue2915242997
CD Puerto Varas2511191469
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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