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Lithuania W vs Poland W Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 06 Feb 2025
Tip-off: 16:30
Final 72-69
18-22 22-13 16-15 16-19
Position#17
Record3-1
FormLWWLW
Points / game88.0
Allowed / game65.8
Lithuania W 🏆
vs
Poland W
Position#15
Record2-2
FormWWLWL
Points / game80.5
Allowed / game67.0
EuropeEuropean Championship WomenRound 5· Active Vilnius Arena
Women2024
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Lithuania W winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Poland W winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Lithuania WLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormW
Date
Competition
Finland W
#36
W
69-59
69
59
+10
no box
H11/11
European Championship Women
France W
#5
L
56-83
56
83
-27
no box
A14/11
European Championship Women
Ukraine W
#11
W
81-62
81
62
+19
no box
H24/11
European Championship Women
Finland W
#36
W
65-56
65
56
+9
no box
A27/11
European Championship Women
France W
#5
L
75-83
75
83
-8
no box
H09/02
European Championship Women
Ukraine W
#11
L
65-71
65
71
-6
no box
A12/02
European Championship Women
Azerbaijan W
#36
W
99-62
99
62
+37
no box
H09/11
European Championship Women
Poland W
#15
W
75-73 OT
75
73
+2
no box
A12/11
European Championship Women
Belgium W
#1
L
70-81
70
81
-11
73avg 87
A07/11
European Championship Women
Azerbaijan W
#36
W
108-47
108
47
+61
123avg 87
A10/11
European Championship Women
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-17
15-7
19-15
15-20
17-22
11-20
15-24
13-17
23-17
14-25
29-10
15-10
20-9
14-12
14-18
17-17
17-20
23-20
11-22
24-21
12-21
30-19
8-23
15-8
22-18
24-19
30-11
23-14
15-28
17-14
20-10
14-14
15-19
20-22
14-25
21-15
23-16
30-13
24-13
31-5
144.0Avg total
76.3Scored
67.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)88.065.8153.8+22.275%
Season at home (1)99.062.0161.0+37.0100%
Season away (3)84.367.0151.3+17.367%
Last 10 (10)76.367.7144.0+8.660%
Last 5 (5)83.466.8150.2+16.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)68.083.0151.0-15.017%
vs Similar (4)63.068.5131.5-5.525%
vs Weaker (5)89.853.4143.2+36.4100%
This opponent (Poland W) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Poland WLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormW
Date
Competition
Albania W
#38
W
125-19
125
19
+106
no box
H11/11
European Championship Women
Turkey W
#10
L
41-52
41
52
-11
no box
A14/11
European Championship Women
Slovenia W
#24
L
71-78
71
78
-7
no box
H24/11
European Championship Women
Albania W
#38
W
136-50
136
50
+86
no box
A27/11
European Championship Women
Turkey W
#10
W
76-72
76
72
+4
no box
H09/02
European Championship Women
Slovenia W
#24
W
65-58
65
58
+7
no box
A12/02
European Championship Women
Belgium W
#1
W
67-62
67
62
+5
no box
A08/11
European Championship Women
Lithuania W
#17
L
73-75 OT
73
75
-2
no box
H12/11
European Championship Women
Azerbaijan W
#36
W
105-51
105
51
+54
110avg 69
H07/11
European Championship Women
Belgium W
#1
L
77-80
77
80
-3
71avg 69
H10/11
European Championship Women
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
38-9
38-4
29-2
20-4
8-12
11-12
6-16
16-12
14-26
27-11
13-17
17-24
43-6
37-6
24-20
32-18
17-17
20-17
27-22
12-16
8-13
16-16
22-15
19-14
18-14
18-10
13-20
18-18
28-15
14-17
10-20
14-14
32-16
32-15
20-10
21-10
17-17
24-15
16-24
20-24
143.3Avg total
83.6Scored
59.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)80.567.0147.5+13.550%
Season at home (3)85.068.7153.7+16.333%
Season away (1)67.062.0129.0+5.0100%
Last 10 (10)83.659.7143.3+23.960%
Last 5 (5)77.465.2142.6+12.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)62.271.7133.8-9.533%
vs Similarno games
vs Weaker ◀ (8)86.556.9143.4+29.662%
This opponent (Lithuania W) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-14-7+0+7+14Q1Q1: -0.3-0.3Q1: +7.8+7.8Q2Q2: +2.7+2.7Q2: +11.4+11.4Q3Q3: +1.3+1.3Q3: +1.4+1.4Q4Q4: +4.7+4.7Q4: +3.5+3.5
-14-7+0+7+14Q1Q1: -0.3-0.3Q1: +7.8+7.8Q2Q2: +2.7+2.7Q2: +11.4+11.4Q3Q3: +1.3+1.3Q3: +1.4+1.4Q4Q4: +4.7+4.7Q4: +3.5+3.5
Lithuania WPoland W
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Lithuania WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Finland W
#36
W
35-24
35
24
+11
H11/11
European Championship Women
France W
#5
L
28-42
28
42
-14
A14/11
European Championship Women
Ukraine W
#11
L
37-42
37
42
-5
H24/11
European Championship Women
Finland W
#36
W
34-21
34
21
+13
A27/11
European Championship Women
France W
#5
D
40-40
40
40
+0
H09/02
European Championship Women
Ukraine W
#11
W
42-40
42
40
+2
A12/02
European Championship Women
Azerbaijan W
#36
W
46-37
46
37
+9
H09/11
European Championship Women
Poland W
#15
L
32-42
32
42
-10
A12/11
European Championship Women
Belgium W
#1
L
35-41
35
41
-6
A07/11
European Championship Women
Azerbaijan W
#36
W
53-29
53
29
+24
A10/11
European Championship Women
74.0Avg total
38.2Scored
35.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (15)36.536.572.9+0.040%-
Last 30 at home (7)37.033.470.4+3.643%-
Last 30 away (8)36.039.175.1-3.138%-
Last 10 (10)38.235.874.0+2.450%-
Last 5 (5)41.637.879.4+3.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)32.544.076.5-11.50%-
vs Similar (4)34.838.273.0-3.525%-
vs Weaker (5)42.626.068.6+16.6100%-
This opponent (Poland W) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Poland WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Albania W
#38
W
76-13
76
13
+63
H11/11
European Championship Women
Turkey W
#10
L
19-24
19
24
-5
A14/11
European Championship Women
Slovenia W
#24
W
41-37
41
37
+4
H24/11
European Championship Women
Albania W
#38
W
80-12
80
12
+68
A27/11
European Championship Women
Turkey W
#10
W
37-34
37
34
+3
H09/02
European Championship Women
Slovenia W
#24
L
24-29
24
29
-5
A12/02
European Championship Women
Belgium W
#1
W
36-24
36
24
+12
A08/11
European Championship Women
Lithuania W
#17
W
42-32
42
32
+10
H12/11
European Championship Women
Azerbaijan W
#36
W
64-31
64
31
+33
H07/11
European Championship Women
Belgium W
#1
W
41-32
41
32
+9
H10/11
European Championship Women
72.8Avg total
46.0Scored
26.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (14)41.129.170.3+12.064%-
Last 30 at home (8)44.532.176.6+12.475%-
Last 30 away (6)36.725.261.8+11.550%-
Last 10 (10)46.026.872.8+19.280%-
Last 5 (5)41.429.671.0+11.880%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)32.232.764.8-0.550%-
vs Similarno games
vs Weaker ◀ (8)47.926.574.4+21.475%-
This opponent (Lithuania W) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Lithuania Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Lithuania W: 86.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀56%
🏀🏀🏀23%
🏀21%
🏀🏀 2-pointers48.5 pts a game · 56% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers20.2 pts a game · 23% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.8 pts a game · 21% of the points
League average for comparison: 69.1 points a game
51%
31%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers45.524.2
53.3%
45.4%48.5
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers20.56.8
32.9%
30.0%20.2
🏀 Free throws23.217.8
76.3%
72.4%17.8
They take 66.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 20.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 31% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Poland Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Poland W: 80.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.5 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.0 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.0 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 69.1 points a game
51%
31%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.220.8
57.2%
45.4%41.5
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.28.0
29.4%
30.0%24.0
🏀 Free throws24.015.0
62.5%
72.4%15.0
They take 63.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 4/4 games with a box score before 06 Feb 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Lithuania W
WLWWLLWWLW
Poland W
LWLWWWWLLW
#17
League position
#15
+25.6
Net rating
+19.3
104.1
Offensive rating
103.8
78.5
Defensive rating
84.4
52.1%
Effective FG%
51.6%
40.2%
Opp. effective FG%
43.5%
23.4%
Turnover %
23.0%
38.0%
Off. rebound %
37.7%
0.35
Free-throw rate
0.38
32.9%
3-point %
29.4%
83.9%
Assist %
85.2%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence104.1 · 103.8Defence78.5 · 84.4Shooting52.1% · 51.6%3-point %32.9% · 29.4%Ball care23.4% · 23.0%Off. rebounds38.0% · 37.7%Free throws0.35 · 0.38Form (last 10/10)60% · 60%
■ Lithuania W   ■ Poland W
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Lithuania W wins
0
Poland W wins
DateGameScore
12/11/23Poland W v Lithuania W73-75 OT
Lithuania Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
10/11/24AAzerbaijan W108-47
07/11/24ABelgium W70-81
12/11/23APoland W75-73 OT
09/11/23HAzerbaijan W99-62
12/02/23AUkraine W65-71
09/02/23HFrance W75-83
27/11/22AFinland W65-56
24/11/22HUkraine W81-62
14/11/21AFrance W56-83
11/11/21HFinland W69-59
Poland Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
10/11/24HBelgium W77-80
07/11/24HAzerbaijan W105-51
12/11/23HLithuania W73-75 OT
08/11/23ABelgium W67-62
12/02/23ASlovenia W65-58
09/02/23HTurkey W76-72
27/11/22AAlbania W136-50
24/11/22HSlovenia W71-78
14/11/21ATurkey W41-52
11/11/21HAlbania W125-19

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Lithuania W
European Championship Women 2024
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLW75%
HomeW100%
AwayWLW67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games413
Win %75%100%67%
Points / game88.099.084.3
Allowed / game65.862.067.0
Point differential+22.2+37.0+17.3
Avg total153.8161.0151.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%100%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)-100% (1)
Overtime %25%0%33%
Poland W
European Championship Women 2024
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWL50%
HomeLWL33%
AwayW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games431
Win %50%33%100%
Points / game80.585.067.0
Allowed / game67.068.762.0
Point differential+13.5+16.3+5.0
Avg total147.5153.7129.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+25%33%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)0% (2)100% (1)
Overtime %25%33%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 France W440100%86.850.0+36.8
2 Serbia W440100%83.847.5+36.2
3 Turkey W550100%79.257.0+22.2
4 Spain W440100%72.255.0+17.2
5 Sweden W440100%71.260.8+10.5
6 Belgium W43175%89.860.5+29.2
7 Lithuania W43175%88.065.8+22.2
8 Montenegro W43175%77.563.5+14.0
9 Germany W43175%72.863.5+9.2
10 Italy W43175%64.855.8+9.0
11 Luxembourg W43175%62.055.0+7.0
12 Portugal W43175%64.057.2+6.8
13 Slovenia W43175%71.865.5+6.2
14 Poland W42250%80.567.0+13.5
15 Great Britain W42250%70.058.5+11.5
16 Croatia W42250%74.871.2+3.5
17 Israel W42250%78.074.5+3.5
18 Greece W42250%68.566.5+2.0
19 Hungary W42250%68.066.0+2.0
20 Netherlands W42250%63.262.2+1.0
21 Switzerland W42250%62.261.8+0.5
22 Finland W42250%69.572.0-2.5
23 Latvia W42250%67.872.2-4.5
24 Slovakia W42250%65.271.8-6.5
25 Denmark W41325%67.567.5+0.0
26 Bulgaria W41325%70.876.5-5.8
27 Ukraine W41325%63.572.0-8.5
28 Romania W41325%71.585.2-13.8
29 Estonia W41325%54.076.0-22.0
30 Iceland W51420%71.677.6-6.0
31 Czech Republic W4040%55.275.5-20.2
32 Bosnia & Herzegovina W4040%62.083.5-21.5
33 Austria W4040%54.075.8-21.8
34 North Macedonia W4040%51.085.5-34.5
35 Ireland W4040%54.890.5-35.8
36 Azerbaijan W4040%47.0112.0-65.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 36 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Lithuania W1822161672
Poland W2213151969
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