LSU hosts New Orleans on 3 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the Tigers the clear favourite and the model projecting a 64% chance of a home win and a 36% chance for the Pelicans, a 78-74 scoreline and a 151.5 total. LSU's last five outings have yielded one win and four losses, including defeats to Kentucky 82-87, Texas A&M 91-94 and Auburn 74-88, while New Orleans has won two of its final five, beating Houston Christian 73-60 but falling to Texas A&M-CC 61-74 and SE Louisiana 78-82. In their four previous meetings the Tigers have won all four, most recently 93-58 on 10 November 2025. The projected spread is 0-point, with LSU covering the line 64% of the time, and the over/under 151.5 has a 5% chance of going into overtime. The game will be decided by the Tigers' ability to maintain the edge they have shown against this opponent.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
LSU winWon
64.2%fair 1.56
Best odds1.02
Implied95.2%
Edge-31.0pp
New Orleans winLost
35.8%fair 2.80
Best odds29.00
Implied4.8%
Edge+31.0pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 02 Nov 07:08 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
New Orleans total 63.5Actual: New Orleans under 63.5
Over 63.5
83.7%
@ 1.50+19.9pp
Under 63.5
16.3%
@ 2.60-19.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.50
Betano
1.39
Under
Betano
2.60
1xBet
2.50
New Orleans total 67.5 · main lineActual: New Orleans under 67.5
Over 67.5
72.2%
@ 1.93+22.2pp
Under 67.5
27.8%
@ 1.86-22.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.93
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
Bet365
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.86
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.78
New Orleans total 71.5Actual: New Orleans under 71.5
Over 71.5
57.9%
@ 3.25+25.7pp
Under 71.5
42.1%
@ 1.42-25.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.25
Betano
2.52
Under
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.29
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread LSU -28.5Actual: LSU -28.5
LSU -28.5
no forecast
@ 2.47
NEW +28.5
no forecast
@ 1.77
Best 5 market prices
LSU
Betano
2.47
Pinnacle
2.05
Bet365
2.00
NEW
Pinnacle
1.77
Marathon Be
1.76
Bet365
1.74
Betano
1.47
Spread LSU -25.5 · main lineActual: LSU -25.5
LSU -25.5
no forecast
@ 1.92
NEW +25.5
no forecast
@ 2.10
Best 5 market prices
LSU
SBO
1.92
Betano
1.90
1xBet
1.83
BetVictor
1.83
Marathon Be
1.72
NEW
Bet365
2.10
Betano
1.87
1xBet
1.83
Marathon Be
1.83
SBO
1.82
Spread LSU -22.5Actual: LSU -22.5
LSU -22.5
5.9%
@ 1.75-47.9pp
NEW +22.5
94.1%
@ 2.65+47.9pp
Best 5 market prices
LSU
Betano
1.75
1xBet
1.73
Marathon Be
1.66
Bet365
1.43
NEW
Bet365
2.65
Betano
2.05
1xBet
2.00
Marathon Be
1.87
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
LSUNew Orleans
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
New Orleans +19
90.6%
3.45
Bet365
3.45
-
-
-
-
+63.7pp
Lost
New Orleans +14.5
81.9%
4.75
Bet365
4.75
-
-
-
-
+62.4pp
Lost
New Orleans +16
85.7%
3.70
Bet365
3.70
-
-
-
-
+60.5pp
Lost
New Orleans +17
87.6%
3.30
Bet365
3.30
-
-
-
-
+59.4pp
Lost
New Orleans +18.5
89.3%
3.12
Bet365
3.60
Betano
2.65
-
-
-
+58.9pp
Lost
New Orleans +19.5
90.8%
3.00
Bet365
3.55
Betano
2.45
-
-
-
+58.9pp
Lost
New Orleans +18
89.2%
3.00
Bet365
3.00
-
-
-
-
+58.1pp
Lost
New Orleans +15.5
84.1%
3.42
Bet365
3.75
Betano
3.10
-
-
-
+56.9pp
Lost
New Orleans +17.5
87.8%
2.96
Bet365
3.05
Betano
2.87
-
-
-
+56.4pp
Lost
New Orleans +16.5
86.0%
3.11
Bet365
3.35
Betano
2.87
-
-
-
+56.1pp
Lost
LSU under 84.5
74.6%
4.70
1xBet
5.00
Bet365
4.40
-
-
-
+54.7pp
Lost
New Orleans +20
91.9%
2.66
Bet365
3.40
Marathon Bet
1.92
-
-
-
+54.2pp
Lost
New Orleans +21
93.0%
2.51
Bet365
3.10
Marathon Bet
1.92
-
-
-
+53.9pp
Lost
New Orleans +23
94.9%
2.29
Bet365
2.55
Marathon Bet
2.02
-
-
-
+53.7pp
Lost
LSU under 83.5
71.3%
5.25
1xBet
5.50
Bet365
5.00
-
-
-
+53.6pp
Lost
New Orleans +22
94.0%
2.36
Bet365
2.80
Marathon Bet
1.92
-
-
-
+53.4pp
Lost
New Orleans +24
95.6%
2.12
Bet365
2.35
Marathon Bet
1.90
-
-
-
+51.4pp
Lost
LSU under 87.5
83.0%
2.90
1xBet
3.25
Betano
2.55
-
-
-
+51.1pp
Lost
LSU under 86.5
80.4%
3.15
1xBet
3.50
Betano
2.80
-
-
-
+51.1pp
Lost
New Orleans +25
96.3%
2.04
Bet365
2.20
Marathon Bet
1.88
-
-
-
+50.6pp
Lost
LSU under 89.5
87.5%
2.38
1xBet
2.62
Betano
2.15
-
-
-
+48.7pp
Lost
New Orleans +20.5
92.0%
2.33
Bet365
3.20
Betano
2.27
1xBet
2.00
Marathon Bet
1.87
-
+48.5pp
Lost
New Orleans +21.5
93.1%
2.22
Bet365
2.85
Betano
2.15
1xBet
2.00
Marathon Bet
1.87
-
+48.4pp
Lost
New Orleans +22.5
94.1%
2.14
Bet365
2.65
Betano
2.05
1xBet
2.00
Marathon Bet
1.87
-
+47.9pp
Lost
LSU under 88.5
85.4%
2.42
1xBet
2.50
Betano
2.35
-
-
-
+47.4pp
Lost
LSU under 85.5
77.6%
3.02
1xBet
3.25
Betano
2.80
-
-
-
+47.2pp
Lost
New Orleans +23.5
94.9%
2.01
Bet365
2.40
1xBet
2.00
Marathon Bet
1.97
Betano
1.93
SBO
1.92
+46.9pp
Lost
New Orleans +24.5
95.7%
1.94
Bet365
2.22
SBO
1.92
Betano
1.90
Marathon Bet
1.83
BetVictor
1.83
+46.5pp
Lost
LSU under 92
92.4%
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
+42.6pp
Lost
LSU under 91.5
91.1%
1.87
Betano
1.91
Marathon Bet
1.87
Bet365
1.86
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
+41.6pp
Lost
LSU under 90.5
89.4%
2.06
1xBet
2.50
Betano
2.02
WilliamHill
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
-
+41.5pp
Lost
LSU under 91
90.9%
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
+41.0pp
Lost
LSU under 90
89.2%
1.87
Marathon Bet
1.87
-
-
-
-
+39.7pp
Lost
New Orleans over 66
77.8%
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
-
-
-
+27.8pp
Lost
New Orleans over 66.5
75.4%
1.85
Pinnacle
1.88
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.84
Betano
1.83
Bet365
1.83
+26.0pp
Lost
New Orleans over 65.5
78.4%
1.71
Bet365
1.80
Pinnacle
1.78
Betano
1.55
-
-
+25.9pp
Lost
New Orleans over 64.5
81.2%
1.55
Pinnacle
1.67
1xBet
1.50
Betano
1.47
-
-
+25.4pp
Lost
New Orleans over 67
74.6%
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
+24.6pp
Lost
Under 160
70.7%
1.92
Pinnacle
2.02
Marathon Bet
1.94
Bet365
1.80
-
-
+24.6pp
Won
Under 161
72.7%
1.83
Pinnacle
1.92
Marathon Bet
1.86
Bet365
1.71
-
-
+24.2pp
Won
Under 160.5
71.3%
1.87
Pinnacle
1.96
Betano
1.93
WilliamHill
1.91
Marathon Bet
1.91
1xBet
1.83
+23.8pp
Won
Under 161.5
73.3%
1.77
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathon Bet
1.82
WilliamHill
1.80
Betano
1.67
Bet365
1.66
+23.6pp
Won
Under 162
74.7%
1.74
Pinnacle
1.82
Marathon Bet
1.77
Bet365
1.62
-
-
+23.5pp
Won
Under 163
76.6%
1.66
Pinnacle
1.74
Marathon Bet
1.68
Bet365
1.55
-
-
+23.0pp
Won
Under 162.5
75.2%
1.67
Pinnacle
1.78
Marathon Bet
1.72
Betano
1.60
Bet365
1.58
-
+22.8pp
Won
New Orleans over 67.5
72.2%
1.86
Betano
1.93
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.84
Bet365
1.83
+22.2pp
Lost
Under 163.5
77.0%
1.58
Pinnacle
1.70
Betano
1.53
Bet365
1.52
-
-
+22.2pp
Won
New Orleans over 68
71.3%
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
+21.4pp
Lost
New Orleans over 63.5
83.7%
1.44
1xBet
1.50
Betano
1.39
-
-
-
+19.9pp
Lost
New Orleans over 62.5
86.0%
1.38
1xBet
1.44
Betano
1.32
-
-
-
+19.6pp
Lost
New Orleans over 60.5
89.9%
1.27
Bet365
1.28
1xBet
1.25
-
-
-
+16.9pp
Lost
New Orleans over 61.5
88.1%
1.29
1xBet
1.29
Bet365
1.28
-
-
-
+16.1pp
Lost
Under 164
78.4%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+15.9pp
Won
Under 164.5
78.8%
1.47
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
+15.8pp
Won
New Orleans over 59.5
91.6%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.22
-
-
-
+15.8pp
Lost
Under 165
80.1%
1.44
Bet365
1.44
-
-
-
-
+15.6pp
Won
Under 165.5
80.4%
1.41
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
+15.0pp
Won
Under 166
81.7%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+14.7pp
Won
Under 166.5
82.0%
1.36
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
+14.0pp
Won
Under 167
83.2%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+13.8pp
Won
Under 167.5
83.5%
1.31
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
-
+12.5pp
Won
New Orleans over 58.5
93.0%
1.15
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.12
-
-
-
+12.0pp
Lost
New Orleans over 57.5
94.2%
1.12
Bet365
1.13
1xBet
1.12
-
-
-
+11.5pp
Lost
New Orleans over 56.5
95.3%
1.12
1xBet
1.12
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
+11.5pp
Won
Under 169.5
86.2%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+10.9pp
Won
New Orleans over 55.5
96.1%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+9.0pp
Won
Under 174.5
91.5%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+7.1pp
Won
Over 134.5
84.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-7.6pp
Won
Over 139.5
76.2%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-13.2pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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