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Margveti vs Black Fortress Prediction & Stats

Date: Sun 15 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 12:00
Projected 88-81
Projected total 168.8
Scheduled
Position#9
Record1-4
FormWLLLL
Points / game77.6
Allowed / game81.0
Margveti
Georgia
Vs
72%
28%
■ MARG 72%■ BLAC 28%
Pythia win probability
Form · last 5 games
4.3/10
Below normal
4.9/10
Around normal
Black Fortress
Georgia
Position#11
Record0-6
FormLLLLL
Points / game79.8
Allowed / game87.8
GeorgiaSuperleagueRound 7· Olympic Palace
Other2026-27
Sections
Game preview & prediction

Margveti host Black Fortress on 15 November 2026 in the Superleague, with the Pythia model designating Margveti as the favourite and predicting a 72% chance of a home win and a 28% chance for the visitors, projecting a final score of 88-81 and a total of 168.8 points. Margveti finish the season 1-4, averaging 77.6 points scored and conceding 81.0, while Black Fortress are 0-6, scoring 79.8 and allowing 87.8; Margveti's home record is 0-2 with 77.0 points for and 82.0 against, whereas Black Fortress' road record is 0-2, 82.5 for and 95.0 against. In the last five games Margveti won only once, losing to Rustavi 76-82 away, Orbi 75-78 at home and Telavi 67-75 away, while Black Fortress have gone five straight defeats, losing to Rustavi 83-85 at home, Orbi 81-82 away and Telavi 79-88 at home. The spread is -3.5 in favour of Margveti with a 63% probability of covering, and the total line of 164.5 carries a 60% chance of an over, while the chance of overtime is 4%. The most recent loss for Black Fortress came on 7 November 2026 when they fell 83-85 to Rustavi at home.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Margveti win
72.4%fair 1.38
Best odds1.60
Implied60.4%
Edge+12.1pp
Black Fortress win
27.6%fair 3.63
Best odds2.30
Implied39.6%
Edge-12.1pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 13 Nov 14:24 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

MargvetiGeorgiaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMargveti
Date
Competition
Orbi
#5
W
89-78
89
78
+11
81avg 76
H23/04
Superleague
Orbi
#5
L
84-95
84
95
-11
73avg 76
H25/04
Superleague
Orbi
#5
W
78-70
78
70
+8
77avg 76
A28/04
Superleague
Orbi
#5
L
76-91
76
91
-15
72avg 76
A30/04
Superleague
Orbi
#5
L
72-79
72
79
-7
57avg 76
H03/05
Superleague
Iverioni
#8
W
91-84
91
84
+7
58avg 76
A03/10
Superleague
TSU
#6
L
79-86
79
86
-7
69avg 76
H11/10
Superleague
Telavi
#7
L
67-75
67
75
-8
56avg 76
A18/10
Superleague
Orbi
#3
L
75-78
75
78
-3
69avg 76
H25/10
Superleague
Rustavi
#2
L
76-82
76
82
-6
61avg 76
A30/10
Superleague
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
27-18
23-23
26-17
13-20
21-27
22-22
20-22
21-24
20-8
21-14
10-24
27-24
21-23
23-27
15-28
17-13
25-25
21-23
16-16
10-15
24-25
29-15
19-26
19-18
22-10
28-26
16-25
13-25
23-12
15-22
18-24
11-17
15-17
20-20
14-19
26-22
13-22
24-24
15-21
24-15
160.5Avg total
78.7Scored
81.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)77.681.0158.6-3.420%
Season at home (2)77.082.0159.0-5.00%
Season away (3)78.080.3158.3-2.333%
Last 10 (10)78.781.8160.5-3.130%
Last 5 (5)77.681.0158.6-3.420%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)82.085.2167.2-3.225%
vs Similar (20)85.283.8169.0+1.555%
vs Weaker ◀ (6)84.083.0167.0+1.067%
This opponent (Black Fortress) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Black FortressGeorgiaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormFortress
Date
Competition
CIU
#1
L
84-108
84
108
-24
78avg 69
A04/10
Superleague
Iverioni
#8
L
70-75
70
75
-5
45avg 69
H10/10
Superleague
TSU
#6
L
82-89
82
89
-7
80avg 69
H17/10
Superleague
Telavi
#7
L
79-88
79
88
-9
70avg 69
H24/10
Superleague
Orbi
#3
L
81-82
81
82
-1
73avg 69
A01/11
Superleague
Rustavi
#2
L
83-85
83
85
-2
no box
H07/11
Superleague
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-27
22-32
16-24
28-25
22-21
12-21
20-16
16-17
22-22
21-26
20-13
19-28
19-26
17-19
22-17
21-26
14-20
19-14
22-18
26-30
16-25
16-17
23-19
28-24
167.7Avg total
79.8Scored
87.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (6)79.887.8167.7-8.00%
Season at home (4)78.584.2162.8-5.80%
Season away (2)82.595.0177.5-12.50%
Last 10 (6)79.887.8167.7-8.00%
Last 5 (5)79.083.8162.8-4.80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)79.887.8167.7-8.00%
vs Similarno games
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Margveti) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 159.5
Over 159.5
70.9%
Under 159.5
29.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 164.5 · main line
Over 164.5
59.6%
@ 1.85+9.6pp
Under 164.5
40.4%
@ 1.85-9.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
WilliamHill
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Pinnacle
1.83
Betano
1.82
SBO
1.82
Under
WilliamHill
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Pinnacle
1.83
Betano
1.82
SBO
1.82
Over/Under 169.5
Over 169.5
47.6%
Under 169.5
52.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Margveti total 79.5
Over 79.5
79.3%
Under 79.5
20.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Margveti total 83.5 · main line
Over 83.5
66.3%
@ 1.80+15.3pp
Under 83.5
33.7%
@ 1.87-15.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.80
Betano
1.78
Under
Betano
1.87
Bet365
1.86
Margveti total 87.5
Over 87.5
51.1%
Under 87.5
48.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Black Fortress total 76.5
Over 76.5
66.5%
Under 76.5
33.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Black Fortress total 80.5 · main line
Over 80.5
51.4%
@ 1.83+1.2pp
Under 80.5
48.6%
@ 1.83-1.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.80
Under
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.83
Black Fortress total 84.5
Over 84.5
36.3%
Under 84.5
63.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Margveti -7
MARG -7
49.5%
BLAC +7
50.5%
Best 5 market prices
MARG
No market prices yet.
BLAC
No market prices yet.
Spread Margveti -4 · main line
MARG -4
61.4%
@ 1.87+12.2pp
BLAC +4
38.6%
@ 1.81-12.2pp
Best 5 market prices
MARG
SBO
1.87
Pinnacle
1.86
BLAC
SBO
1.81
Pinnacle
1.80
Spread Margveti -1
MARG -1
71.7%
@ 1.52+12.1pp
BLAC +1
28.3%
@ 2.25-12.1pp
Best 5 market prices
MARG
Pinnacle
1.52
BLAC
Pinnacle
2.25

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: +2.4+2.4Q1: -5.0-5.0Q2Q2: +1.0+1.0Q2: -3.7-3.7Q3Q3: -5.3-5.3Q3: +2.7+2.7Q4Q4: -1.2-1.2Q4: -2.0-2.0
-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: +2.4+2.4Q1: -5.0-5.0Q2Q2: +1.0+1.0Q2: -3.7-3.7Q3Q3: -5.3-5.3Q3: +2.7+2.7Q4Q4: -1.2-1.2Q4: -2.0-2.0
MargvetiBlack Fortress
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
MargvetiLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Orbi
#5
W
50-41
50
41
+9
H23/04
Superleague
Orbi
#5
L
43-49
43
49
-6
H25/04
Superleague
Orbi
#5
W
41-22
41
22
+19
A28/04
Superleague
Orbi
#5
L
44-50
44
50
-6
A30/04
Superleague
Orbi
#5
L
46-48
46
48
-2
H03/05
Superleague
Iverioni
#8
W
53-40
53
40
+13
A03/10
Superleague
TSU
#6
W
50-36
50
36
+14
H11/10
Superleague
Telavi
#7
W
38-34
38
34
+4
A18/10
Superleague
Orbi
#3
L
35-37
35
37
-2
H25/10
Superleague
Rustavi
#2
L
37-46
37
46
-9
A30/10
Superleague
84.0Avg total
43.7Scored
40.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 81.5
Last 30 (30)43.642.486.0+1.240%73%
Last 30 at home (15)45.143.388.3+1.847%80%
Last 30 away (15)42.241.583.7+0.733%67%
Last 10 (10)43.740.384.0+3.450%70%
Last 5 (5)42.638.681.2+4.060%60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)41.541.282.8+0.225%75%
vs Similar (20)44.542.486.9+2.245%70%
vs Weaker ◀ (6)42.043.385.3-1.333%83%
This opponent (Black Fortress) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Black FortressLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
CIU
#1
L
40-59
40
59
-19
A04/10
Superleague
Iverioni
#8
L
34-42
34
42
-8
H10/10
Superleague
TSU
#6
L
43-48
43
48
-5
H17/10
Superleague
Telavi
#7
L
36-45
36
45
-9
H24/10
Superleague
Orbi
#3
L
33-34
33
34
-1
A01/11
Superleague
Rustavi
#2
L
32-42
32
42
-10
H07/11
Superleague
81.3Avg total
36.3Scored
45.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 81.5
Last 30 (6)36.345.081.3-8.70%33%
Last 30 at home (4)36.244.280.5-8.00%25%
Last 30 away (2)36.546.583.0-10.00%50%
Last 10 (6)36.345.081.3-8.70%33%
Last 5 (5)35.642.277.8-6.60%20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)36.345.081.3-8.70%33%
vs Similarno games
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Margveti) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winner
MARG win
no forecast
@ 1.67
BLAC win
no forecast
@ 2.15
1st half Spread Margveti -1.5 · main line
MARG -1.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
BLAC +1.5
no forecast
@ 1.91
1st half Over/Under 81.5 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.87
Under
no forecast
@ 1.91
Margveti 1st half total 41.5 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.83
Under
no forecast
@ 1.86
Black Fortress 1st half total 40.5 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.86
Under
no forecast
@ 1.80
1st half: MARG + total 82.5
MARG & over
no forecast
@ 3.40
MARG & under
no forecast
@ 3.20
1st half: Draw + total 82.5
Draw & over
no forecast
@ 31.00
Draw & under
no forecast
@ 29.00
1st half 3-way (draw possible)
MARG
no forecast
@ 1.68
Draw
no forecast
@ 18.00
BLAC
no forecast
@ 2.22

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
MARG win + total 164.5
🔒 Pro
BLAC win + total 164.5
🔒 Pro
Overtime
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: MARG leads at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: level at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: BLAC leads at half
🔒 Pro
Team with the highest-scoring quarter
🔒 Pro
Highest-scoring half
🔒 Pro
🔒 8 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Free readers see five, one market at a time (moneyline, spread, total ...); Pro sees every selection and can filter by Min odds and Edge. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds PRO1.20
Edge PRO
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Margveti win72.4%1.55
WilliamHill
1.60
Bet365
1.57
Betfair
1.57
Betano
1.55
Pinnacle
1.51		+12.1pp
Margveti -171.7%1.52
Pinnacle
1.52		----+12.1pp
■■■■■■ ■■■■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Margvetitheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Margveti: 74.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀56%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.4 pts a game · 56% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.9 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws10.8 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.9 points a game
51%
30%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.720.7
46.3%
48.2%41.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.07.3
30.4%
31.1%21.9
🏀 Free throws15.810.8
68.4%
64.0%10.8
They take 68.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 35% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Black Fortresstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Black Fortress: 75.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀64%
🏀🏀🏀18%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers48.4 pts a game · 64% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers13.8 pts a game · 18% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.6 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.9 points a game
51%
30%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers48.624.2
49.8%
48.2%48.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers18.04.6
25.6%
31.1%13.8
🏀 Free throws21.413.6
63.6%
64.0%13.6
They take 66.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 18.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 27% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/5 games with a box score before 15 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Margveti
LLLLWLLWLW
Black Fortress
LLLLLL
#9
League position
#11
-3.5
Net rating
-13.6
81.4
Offensive rating
81.8
84.9
Defensive rating
95.4
46.1%
Effective FG%
46.7%
48.0%
Opp. effective FG%
51.3%
17.3%
Turnover %
16.3%
0.23
Free-throw rate
0.32
30.4%
3-point %
25.6%
62.9%
Assist %
69.4%
30%
Form (last 10/6)
0%

Profile

Offence81.4 · 81.8Defence84.9 · 95.4Shooting46.1% · 46.7%3-point %30.4% · 25.6%Ball care17.3% · 16.3%Free throws0.23 · 0.32Form (last 10/6)30% · 0%
■ Margveti   ■ Black Fortress
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Margveti wins
0
Black Fortress wins
No previous meetings.
Margvetilast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
30/10/26ARustavi76-82
25/10/26HOrbi75-78
18/10/26ATelavi67-75
11/10/26HTSU79-86
03/10/26AIverioni91-84
03/05/26HOrbi72-79
30/04/26AOrbi76-91
28/04/26AOrbi78-70
25/04/26HOrbi84-95
23/04/26HOrbi89-78
Black Fortresslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/11/26HRustavi83-85
01/11/26AOrbi81-82
24/10/26HTelavi79-88
17/10/26HTSU82-89
10/10/26HIverioni70-75
04/10/26ACIU84-108

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Margveti
Superleague 2026-27
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLLL20%
HomeLL0%
AwayWLL33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games523
Win %20%0%33%
Points / game77.677.078.0
Allowed / game81.082.080.3
Point differential-3.4-5.0-2.3
Avg total158.6159.0158.3
Over 164.540%50%33%
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)0% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
Black Fortress
Superleague 2026-27
Recent: 0 Wins / 6 Losses (last 6)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL0%
HomeLLLL0%
AwayLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games642
Win %0%0%0%
Points / game79.878.582.5
Allowed / game87.884.295.0
Point differential-8.0-5.8-12.5
Avg total167.7162.8177.5
Over 164.567%75%50%
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (3)0% (2)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 CIU660100%95.377.7+17.7
2 Rustavi65183%87.784.8+2.8
3 Orbi65183%84.582.3+2.2
4 Batumi54180%83.878.8+5.0
5 Akhaltsikhe63350%77.080.2-3.2
6 TSU73443%85.185.9-0.7
7 Telavi73443%84.085.4-1.4
8 Iverioni52340%79.483.2-3.8
9 Margveti51420%77.681.0-3.4
10 Kutaisi71614%78.684.7-6.1
11 Black Fortress6060%79.887.8-8.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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