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Marquette vs Mercyhurst Lakers Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 03 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 00:30
Projected 75-67
Projected total 142.2
Final 78-43
36-14 42-29
Position#72
Record-
FormWLWWL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
Marquette 🏆
USA
Vs
74%
26%
■ MARQ 74%■ MERC 26%
Pythia win probability
Mercyhurst Lakers
USA
Position#367
Record-
FormLWWWL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Marquette faces the Mercyhurst Lakers on 2 November 2026 in an NCAA matchup that the Pythia model sees as a decisive favour for the Golden Eagles, with a 74% chance of victory versus 26% for the Lakers. Marquette has won three of its last five games, while Mercyhurst also holds a 3-2 record in its most recent five outings; the Golden Eagles' recent results include a 87-89 loss to Xavier at home on 11 March 2026, a 68-62 home win over UConn on 7 March 2026, and a 78-56 away triumph against Providence on 4 March 2026, whereas the Lakers' recent slate features a 70-79 defeat to LIU Sharks away on 10 March 2026, a 56-51 home victory over Stonehill on 7 March 2026, and a 70-61 home win over Fairleigh Dickinson on 4 March 2026. The Pythia projection sets the final score at 75-67, with a combined 142.2 points; the over/under line of 147.5 carries a 37% probability of an over, and there is a 4% chance the game will extend into overtime.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Marquette winWon
74.3%fair 1.35
Best odds1.01
Implied94.2%
Edge-20.0pp
Mercyhurst Lakers winLost
25.7%fair 3.89
Best odds29.00
Implied5.8%
Edge+20.0pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 01 Nov 07:04 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

MarquetteUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Seton Hall
#89
L
64-69
64
69
-5
A31/01
NCAA
Butler
#208
W
70-55
70
55
+15
H07/02
NCAA
Villanova
#46
L
74-77
74
77
-3
A11/02
NCAA
Xavier
#248
L
88-96
88
96
-8
A14/02
NCAA
St. John's (N.Y.)
#32
L
70-76
70
76
-6
H19/02
NCAA
Georgetown
#225
W
76-60
76
60
+16
A25/02
NCAA
DePaul
#213
L
51-62
51
62
-11
H01/03
NCAA
Providence
#246
W
78-56
78
56
+22
A05/03
NCAA
Uconn
#11
W
68-62
68
62
+6
H07/03
NCAA
Xavier
#248
L
87-89
87
89
-2
H11/03
NCAA
1H
2H
41-33
23-36
32-28
38-27
32-36
42-41
35-51
53-45
35-44
35-32
40-35
36-25
14-32
37-30
37-23
41-33
33-35
35-27
38-38
49-51
142.8Avg total
72.6Scored
70.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)72.670.2142.8+2.440%
Last 5 (5)72.065.8137.8+6.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)69.579.3148.8-9.88%
vs Similar (16)77.473.1150.6+4.356%
vs Weaker (1)82.089.0171.0-7.00%
Mercyhurst LakersUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Fairleigh Dickinson
#315
L
52-55
52
55
-3
A07/02
NCAA
Le Moyne
#240
L
57-58
57
58
-1
A13/02
NCAA
St. Francis (PA)
#359
W
94-79
94
79
+15
A14/02
NCAA
Wagner
#249
L
80-83 OT
80
83
-3
H20/02
NCAA
LIU Sharks
#59
W
91-83
91
83
+8
H21/02
NCAA
Central Connecticut State
#114
L
78-80
78
80
-2
A27/02
NCAA
Stonehill
#283
W
75-72 OT
75
72
+3
A28/02
NCAA
Fairleigh Dickinson
#315
W
70-61
70
61
+9
H05/03
NCAA
Stonehill
#283
W
56-51
56
51
+5
H07/03
NCAA
LIU Sharks
#59
L
70-79
70
79
-9
A10/03
NCAA
1H
2H
30-28
22-27
29-25
28-33
50-36
44-43
26-35
44-35
45-45
46-38
30-34
48-46
30-30
32-32
35-28
35-33
23-19
33-32
40-42
30-37
142.4Avg total
72.3Scored
70.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)72.370.1142.4+2.250%
Last 5 (5)69.868.6138.4+1.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)71.076.0147.0-5.00%
vs Similar (18)65.767.8133.6-2.144%
vs Weaker (11)75.968.9144.8+7.064%
Over/Under 142.5Actual: Under 142.5
Over 142.5
48.8%
@ 1.44-16.1pp
Under 142.5
51.2%
@ 2.70+16.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.41
Under
Bet365
2.70
Betano
2.57
Over/Under 147.5 · main lineActual: Under 147.5
Over 147.5
36.9%
@ 1.87-14.2pp
Under 147.5
63.1%
@ 1.95+14.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
Bet365
1.86
Betano
1.83
1xBet
1.82
WilliamHill
1.80
Under
Betano
1.95
Bet365
1.95
WilliamHill
1.91
1xBet
1.88
Marathon Be
1.87
Over/Under 152.5Actual: Under 152.5
Over 152.5
26.3%
@ 2.50-11.9pp
Under 152.5
73.7%
@ 1.50+11.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.37
Under
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.50

📊 3. Team Totals

Marquette total 85Actual: Marquette under 85
Over 85
14.7%
Under 85
85.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marquette total 89 · main lineActual: Marquette under 89
Over 89
7.3%
@ 1.85-43.0pp
Under 89
92.7%
@ 1.87+43.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Marquette total 92.5Actual: Marquette under 92.5
Over 92.5
no forecast
@ 2.27
Under 92.5
no forecast
@ 1.50
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.27
Under
Betano
1.50
Mercyhurst Lakers total 54.5Actual: Mercyhurst Lakers under 54.5
Over 54.5
no forecast
@ 1.40
Under 54.5
no forecast
@ 2.55
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.40
Under
Betano
2.55
Mercyhurst Lakers total 58.5 · main lineActual: Mercyhurst Lakers under 58.5
Over 58.5
80.7%
@ 1.94+31.9pp
Under 58.5
19.3%
@ 1.85-31.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.94
Betano
1.85
Under
Betano
1.85
1xBet
1.77
Mercyhurst Lakers total 62.5Actual: Mercyhurst Lakers under 62.5
Over 62.5
68.1%
@ 2.50+31.9pp
Under 62.5
31.9%
@ 1.42-31.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.50
Under
Betano
1.42

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Marquette -34Actual: Marquette -34
MARQ -34
no forecast
@ 2.22
MERC +34
no forecast
@ 1.58
Best 5 market prices
MARQ
Bet365
2.22
MERC
Bet365
1.58
Spread Marquette -31 · main lineActual: Marquette -31
MARQ -31
no forecast
@ 1.90
MERC +31
no forecast
@ 1.85
Best 5 market prices
MARQ
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Be
1.86
MERC
Marathon Be
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Spread Marquette -28Actual: Marquette -28
MARQ -28
no forecast
@ 1.57
MERC +28
no forecast
@ 2.25
Best 5 market prices
MARQ
Bet365
1.57
MERC
Bet365
2.25

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-5-3+0+3+51st half1st half: -1.8-1.81st half: +1.6+1.62nd half2nd half: +4.2+4.22nd half: +0.6+0.6
-5-3+0+3+51st half1st half: -1.8-1.81st half: +1.6+1.62nd half2nd half: +4.2+4.22nd half: +0.6+0.6
MarquetteMercyhurst Lakers
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
MarquetteLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Seton Hall
#89
W
41-33
41
33
+8
A31/01
NCAA
Butler
#208
W
32-28
32
28
+4
H07/02
NCAA
Villanova
#46
L
32-36
32
36
-4
A11/02
NCAA
Xavier
#248
L
35-51
35
51
-16
A14/02
NCAA
St. John's (N.Y.)
#32
L
35-44
35
44
-9
H19/02
NCAA
Georgetown
#225
W
40-35
40
35
+5
A25/02
NCAA
DePaul
#213
L
14-32
14
32
-18
H01/03
NCAA
Providence
#246
W
37-23
37
23
+14
A05/03
NCAA
Uconn
#11
L
33-35
33
35
-2
H07/03
NCAA
Xavier
#248
D
38-38
38
38
+0
H11/03
NCAA
69.2Avg total
33.7Scored
35.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 70.5
Last 30 (30)35.937.072.9-1.137%63%
Last 30 at home (17)36.935.172.0+1.841%59%
Last 30 away (13)34.639.574.2-4.931%69%
Last 10 (10)33.735.569.2-1.840%50%
Last 5 (5)32.432.665.0-0.240%40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)33.939.773.6-5.815%62%
vs Similar (16)37.134.671.7+2.656%62%
vs Weaker (1)42.042.084.0+0.00%100%
Mercyhurst LakersLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Fairleigh Dickinson
#315
W
30-28
30
28
+2
A07/02
NCAA
Le Moyne
#240
W
29-25
29
25
+4
A13/02
NCAA
St. Francis (PA)
#359
W
50-36
50
36
+14
A14/02
NCAA
Wagner
#249
L
26-35
26
35
-9
H20/02
NCAA
LIU Sharks
#59
D
45-45
45
45
+0
H21/02
NCAA
Central Connecticut State
#114
L
30-34
30
34
-4
A27/02
NCAA
Stonehill
#283
D
30-30
30
30
+0
A28/02
NCAA
Fairleigh Dickinson
#315
W
35-28
35
28
+7
H05/03
NCAA
Stonehill
#283
W
23-19
23
19
+4
H07/03
NCAA
LIU Sharks
#59
L
40-42
40
42
-2
A10/03
NCAA
66.0Avg total
33.8Scored
32.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 70.5
Last 30 (30)32.530.963.4+1.647%13%
Last 30 at home (14)36.027.663.6+8.479%14%
Last 30 away (16)29.433.863.2-4.419%12%
Last 10 (10)33.832.266.0+1.650%30%
Last 5 (5)31.630.662.2+1.040%20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)29.037.066.0-8.00%0%
vs Similar (18)29.731.861.4-2.133%11%
vs Weaker (11)37.428.966.3+8.573%18%
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winnerActual: Marquette win
MARQ win
no forecast
@ 1.05
MERC win
no forecast
@ 10.75
1st half Spread Marquette -15.5 · main lineActual: Marquette -15.5
MARQ -15.5
no forecast
@ 1.90
MERC +15.5
no forecast
@ 1.87
1st half Over/Under 70.5 · main lineActual: Under 70.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.05
Under
no forecast
@ 1.87
Marquette 1st half total 42.5 · main lineActual: Marquette under 42.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
Mercyhurst Lakers 1st half total 27.5 · main lineActual: Mercyhurst Lakers under 27.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.98
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
1st half Spread Marquette -16.5Actual: Marquette -16.5
MARQ -16.5
no forecast
@ 2.05
MERC +16.5
no forecast
@ 1.75
1st half Spread Marquette -14.5Actual: Marquette -14.5
MARQ -14.5
no forecast
@ 1.78
MERC +14.5
no forecast
@ 2.02
1st half Over/Under 68.5Actual: Under 68.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.75
Under
no forecast
@ 2.05
1st half Over/Under 72.5Actual: Under 72.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.35
Under
no forecast
@ 1.52
1st half Spread Marquette -17.5Actual: Marquette -17.5
MARQ -17.5
no forecast
@ 2.18
MERC +17.5
no forecast
@ 1.60
1st half Spread Marquette -13.5Actual: Marquette -13.5
MARQ -13.5
no forecast
@ 1.62
MERC +13.5
no forecast
@ 2.15
1st half Over/Under 66.5Actual: Under 66.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.52
Under
no forecast
@ 2.35
1st half Spread Marquette -18.5Actual: Marquette -18.5
MARQ -18.5
no forecast
@ 2.35
MERC +18.5
no forecast
@ 1.52
1st half Spread Marquette -12.5Actual: Marquette -12.5
MARQ -12.5
no forecast
@ 1.53
MERC +12.5
no forecast
@ 2.32
1st half Spread Marquette -19.5Actual: Marquette -19.5
MARQ -19.5
no forecast
@ 2.60
MERC +19.5
no forecast
@ 1.42
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Marquette (regulation)
MARQ
no forecast
@ 1.05
Draw
no forecast
@ 41.00
MERC
no forecast
@ 10.00

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
MARQ win + total 148.5
🔒 Pro
MERC win + total 148.5
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: MARQ leads at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: level at half
🔒 Pro
🔒 4 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Mercyhurst Lakers +2391.6%3.70
Bet365
3.70		----+66.4ppLost
Mercyhurst Lakers +2492.8%3.25
Bet365
3.25		----+64.2ppLost
Mercyhurst Lakers +22.590.5%3.33
Bet365
3.75
Betano
2.90		---+62.1ppLost
Mercyhurst Lakers +2593.8%2.90
Bet365
2.90		----+61.9ppLost
Mercyhurst Lakers +23.591.8%3.08
Bet365
3.35
Betano
2.82		---+61.6ppLost
Mercyhurst Lakers +24.592.9%2.85
Bet365
3.05
Betano
2.65		---+60.2ppLost
Marquette under 84.583.3%2.65
Betano
2.65		----+49.1ppWon
Marquette under 85.585.7%2.45
Betano
2.45		----+48.7ppWon
Marquette under 86.587.8%2.25
Betano
2.25		----+47.5ppWon
Marquette under 87.589.7%2.07
Betano
2.07		----+46.1ppWon
Marquette under 88.591.4%1.98
Betano
1.98		----+44.4ppWon
Marquette under 8992.7%1.86
Marathon Bet
1.87
BetVictor
1.85		---+43.0ppWon
Marquette under 89.592.8%1.86
1xBet
1.90
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Betano
1.83		-+42.8ppWon
Marquette under 90.594.1%1.72
Betano
1.72		----+40.3ppWon
Marquette under 91.595.1%1.60
Betano
1.60		----+38.4ppWon
Mercyhurst Lakers over 5882.9%1.83
Marathon Bet
1.83		----+32.3ppLost
Mercyhurst Lakers over 61.571.6%2.30
Betano
2.30		----+32.1ppLost
Mercyhurst Lakers over 58.580.7%1.90
1xBet
1.94
Betano
1.85		---+31.9ppLost
Mercyhurst Lakers over 60.574.8%2.10
Betano
2.10		----+31.6ppLost
Mercyhurst Lakers over 5980.2%1.85
BetVictor
1.85		----+30.2ppLost
Mercyhurst Lakers over 59.577.9%1.92
Betano
2.00
WilliamHill
1.91
BetVictor
1.85		--+29.4ppLost
Mercyhurst Lakers over 57.583.3%1.72
Betano
1.72		----+29.3ppLost
Mercyhurst Lakers over 56.585.7%1.57
Betano
1.57		----+28.2ppLost
Mercyhurst Lakers over 55.587.8%1.47
Betano
1.47		----+26.3ppLost
Under 15171.1%1.58
Bet365
1.58		----+12.7ppWon
Under 151.571.7%1.56
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.55		---+12.4ppWon
Under 15273.2%1.52
Bet365
1.52		----+12.0ppWon
Under 152.573.7%1.50
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.50		---+11.9ppWon
Under 15375.2%1.47
Bet365
1.47		----+11.7ppWon
Under 153.575.6%1.44
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.43		---+11.4ppWon
Under 15477.1%1.40
Bet365
1.40		----+11.0ppWon
Under 154.577.5%1.39
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.37		---+10.8ppWon
Under 155.579.2%1.34
Betano
1.35
Bet365
1.33		---+10.1ppWon
Under 15578.9%1.34
Bet365
1.34		----+9.4ppWon
Marquette (regulation)71.8%1.01
Betano
1.01		-----18.5ppWon
Marquette win74.3%1.01
Betano
1.01		-----20.0ppWon
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Marquette wins
0
Mercyhurst Lakers wins
No previous meetings.
Marquettelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/03/26HXavier87-89
07/03/26HUconn68-62
05/03/26AProvidence78-56
01/03/26HDePaul51-62
25/02/26AGeorgetown76-60
19/02/26HSt. John's (N.Y.)70-76
14/02/26AXavier88-96
11/02/26AVillanova74-77
07/02/26HButler70-55
31/01/26ASeton Hall64-69
Mercyhurst Lakerslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
10/03/26ALIU Sharks70-79
07/03/26HStonehill56-51
05/03/26HFairleigh Dickinson70-61
28/02/26AStonehill75-72 OT
27/02/26ACentral Connecticut State78-80
21/02/26HLIU Sharks91-83
20/02/26HWagner80-83 OT
14/02/26ASt. Francis (PA)94-79
13/02/26ALe Moyne57-58
07/02/26AFairleigh Dickinson52-55

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Marquette
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over 147.5---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
Mercyhurst Lakers
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over 147.5---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Big East conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Xavier110100%97.052.0+45.0
2 Butler110100%96.060.0+36.0
3 Providence110100%83.056.0+27.0
4 Georgetown110100%80.058.0+22.0
5 St. John's (N.Y.)110100%78.063.0+15.0
6 Villanova1010%72.074.0-2.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Northeast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Stonehill110100%84.056.0+28.0
2 Central Connecticut State1010%56.068.0-12.0
3 LIU Sharks1010%60.074.0-14.0
4 New Haven Chargers1010%58.074.0-16.0
5 St. Francis (ILL)1010%47.096.0-49.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Marquette364278
Mercyhurst Lakers142943
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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