PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
Maryland hosts Alcorn State on 16 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model rates Maryland as the clear favourite with a 99% chance of winning, reflected in their 1-1 record, 85.0 points per game and 76.5 allowed, and a 1-0 home record with 96.0 points scored and 67.0 allowed; Alcorn State, meanwhile, is 0-3 overall, 66.0 points per game, 95.7 allowed, and 0-2 on the road with 57.5 points and 96.5 allowed. Maryland's last five games include a 96-67 home win over Bucknell and a 74-86 loss to Georgetown, while Alcorn State's recent five feature a 57-94 loss to Murray State and a 58-99 defeat by Ole Miss. In head-to-head history, Maryland has won all three meetings, most recently 84-64 on 11 November 2025. Pythia projects a 91-62 score, 152.4 total points, and a 99% probability that Maryland will cover the home line; the model assigns a 1% chance to Alcorn State. The game is expected to finish in regulation, with an overtime probability of 0.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (2) | 85.0 | 76.5 | 161.5 | +8.5 | 50% |
| Season at home (1) | 96.0 | 67.0 | 163.0 | +29.0 | 100% |
| Season away (1) | 74.0 | 86.0 | 160.0 | -12.0 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 68.5 | 72.5 | 141.0 | -4.0 | 30% |
| Last 5 (5) | 75.2 | 73.2 | 148.4 | +2.0 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (24) | 67.5 | 79.7 | 147.2 | -12.1 | 25% |
| vs Similar (5) | 68.4 | 66.8 | 135.2 | +1.6 | 40% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (1) | 96.0 | 67.0 | 163.0 | +29.0 | 100% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 66.0 | 95.7 | 161.7 | -29.7 | 0% |
| Season at home (1) | 83.0 | 94.0 | 177.0 | -11.0 | 0% |
| Season away (2) | 57.5 | 96.5 | 154.0 | -39.0 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 66.7 | 79.3 | 146.0 | -12.6 | 30% |
| Last 5 (5) | 66.2 | 83.4 | 149.6 | -17.2 | 20% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (26) | 65.6 | 82.1 | 147.7 | -16.5 | 23% |
| vs Similar (2) | 84.5 | 77.0 | 161.5 | +7.5 | 50% |
| vs Weaker (2) | 70.5 | 65.0 | 135.5 | +5.5 | 100% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 31.6 | 35.2 | 66.8 | -3.6 | 30% | - |
| Last 30 at home (14) | 35.4 | 34.0 | 69.4 | +1.4 | 50% | - |
| Last 30 away (16) | 28.3 | 36.2 | 64.6 | -7.9 | 12% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 30.1 | 32.1 | 62.2 | -2.0 | 40% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 33.0 | 29.6 | 62.6 | +3.4 | 60% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (24) | 30.9 | 37.0 | 67.9 | -6.1 | 25% | - |
| vs Similar (5) | 32.6 | 27.6 | 60.2 | +5.0 | 40% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (1) | 44.0 | 30.0 | 74.0 | +14.0 | 100% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 31.6 | 38.8 | 70.4 | -7.2 | 20% | - |
| Last 30 at home (11) | 31.5 | 34.4 | 65.9 | -2.8 | 18% | - |
| Last 30 away (19) | 31.6 | 41.3 | 72.9 | -9.7 | 21% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 30.5 | 37.4 | 67.9 | -6.9 | 30% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 30.2 | 40.6 | 70.8 | -10.4 | 40% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (26) | 30.9 | 39.5 | 70.4 | -8.7 | 15% | - |
| vs Similar (2) | 35.5 | 43.5 | 79.0 | -8.0 | 0% | - |
| vs Weaker (2) | 37.0 | 24.0 | 61.0 | +13.0 | 100% | - |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 12/11/25 | Maryland v Alcorn State | 84-64 |
| 01/12/24 | Maryland v Alcorn State | 96-58 |
| 13/12/23 | Maryland v Alcorn State | 105-65 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11/26 | A | Georgetown | 74-86 |
| 03/11/26 | H | Bucknell | 96-67 |
| 11/03/26 | A | Iowa | 64-75 |
| 10/03/26 | A | Oregon | 70-60 |
| 08/03/26 | H | Illinois | 72-78 |
| 05/03/26 | A | Wisconsin | 45-78 |
| 01/03/26 | H | Rutgers | 65-69 |
| 26/02/26 | A | Nebraska | 61-74 |
| 21/02/26 | H | Washington | 64-60 |
| 19/02/26 | A | Northwestern | 74-78 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11/26 | A | Murray State | 57-94 |
| 06/11/26 | H | Howard | 83-94 |
| 03/11/26 | A | Ole Miss | 58-99 |
| 10/03/26 | A | Prairie View A&M | 56-65 |
| 09/03/26 | A | Alabama State | 77-65 |
| 06/03/26 | H | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | 48-83 |
| 04/03/26 | H | Miss. Valley St. | 67-64 |
| 28/02/26 | A | Prairie View A&M | 51-72 |
| 27/02/26 | A | Texas Southern | 87-92 OT |
| 21/02/26 | H | Jackson State | 83-65 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WL | 50% |
| Home | W | 100% |
| Away | L | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Win % | 50% | 100% | 0% |
| Points / game | 85.0 | 96.0 | 74.0 |
| Allowed / game | 76.5 | 67.0 | 86.0 |
| Point differential | +8.5 | +29.0 | -12.0 |
| Avg total | 161.5 | 163.0 | 160.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 50% | 100% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LLL | 0% |
| Home | L | 0% |
| Away | LL | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| Win % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Points / game | 66.0 | 83.0 | 57.5 |
| Allowed / game | 95.7 | 94.0 | 96.5 |
| Point differential | -29.7 | -11.0 | -39.0 |
| Avg total | 161.7 | 177.0 | 154.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Rutgers | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 91.0 | 59.0 | +32.0 |
| 2 |  UCLA | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 99.0 | 69.0 | +30.0 |
| 3 |  Nebraska | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 86.5 | 61.0 | +25.5 |
| 4 |  Michigan State | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 88.7 | 64.3 | +24.3 |
| 5 |  Oregon | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 92.5 | 70.0 | +22.5 |
| 6 |  Wisconsin | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 79.0 | 58.0 | +21.0 |
| 7 |  Indiana | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 88.7 | 68.7 | +20.0 |
| 8 |  USC | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 94.0 | 74.5 | +19.5 |
| 9 |  Northwestern | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 78.7 | 60.0 | +18.7 |
| 10 |  Minnesota | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 74.7 | 57.7 | +17.0 |
| 11 |  Washington | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 83.5 | 70.0 | +13.5 |
| 12 |  Illinois | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 103.3 | 66.3 | +37.0 |
| 13 |  Iowa | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 85.0 | 64.7 | +20.3 |
| 14 |  Ohio State | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 85.3 | 77.7 | +7.7 |
| 15 |  Purdue | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 78.0 | 71.3 | +6.7 |
| 16 | Maryland | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 85.0 | 76.5 | +8.5 |
| 17 |  Michigan | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 80.5 | 76.5 | +4.0 |
| 18 |  Penn State | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 79.0 | 80.2 | -1.2 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Alabama A&M Bulldogs | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 80.0 | 62.7 | +17.3 |
| 2 |  Prairie View A&M | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 78.8 | 80.2 | -1.5 |
| 3 |  Grambling St. | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 75.5 | 90.0 | -14.5 |
| 4 |  Texas Southern | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 76.0 | 91.0 | -15.0 |
| 5 |  Jackson State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 62.0 | 86.3 | -24.3 |
| 6 |  Florida A&M | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 77.8 | 80.8 | -3.0 |
| 7 |  Bethune-Cookman | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 69.7 | 84.7 | -15.0 |
| 8 |  Alabama State | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0% | 71.5 | 88.0 | -16.5 |
| 9 |  Miss. Valley St. | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0% | 60.5 | 80.5 | -20.0 |
| 10 |  Southern Univ. | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0% | 60.2 | 87.5 | -27.2 |
| 11 | Alcorn State | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 66.0 | 95.7 | -29.7 |
| 12 |  Arkansas-Pine Bluff | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0% | 57.0 | 107.5 | -50.5 |
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