Maryland hosts Virginia on 13 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the Pythia model designating Maryland as the favourite and projecting a close 76-74 win. Maryland has gone 1-1 this season, scoring 85.0 points per game and allowing 76.5, while Virginia is undefeated 4-0, averaging 93.0 points and conceding 66.2, a stark contrast that favours Virginia's offensive firepower. Maryland's lone home game was a 96-67 victory, and in the last five games the Terrapins have won twice and lost three, including a 74-86 loss to Georgetown and a 96-67 win over Bucknell; Virginia's recent slate shows four wins and one loss, with three consecutive home victories over Bucknell, Arkansas and Northeastern. In their only prior meeting, Virginia edged Maryland 80-72 on 20 December 2025. Pythia assigns a 57% chance to Maryland and 43% to Virginia, with a projected total of 150.6 points and a spread of 6.5 favouring Maryland; the model estimates a 76% probability that Maryland will cover the line. The over-152.5 line has a 45% chance of hitting, and there is a 5% likelihood of overtime. Maryland's strong home performance and Virginia's flawless record make this a tightly contested matchup that hinges on how well Maryland can contain Virginia's high-scoring offense.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Maryland winLost
56.5%fair 1.77
Best odds3.04
Implied31.7%
Edge+24.8pp
Virginia winWon
43.5%fair 2.30
Best odds1.42
Implied68.3%
Edge-24.8pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 19:44 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Maryland) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 146.5Actual: Over 146.5
Over 146.5
59.0%
@ 1.39-8.6pp
Under 146.5
41.0%
@ 3.00+8.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.39
Bet365
1.35
Under
Bet365
3.00
Betano
2.72
Over/Under 151.5 · main lineActual: Over 151.5
Over 151.5
47.0%
@ 1.80-5.0pp
Under 151.5
53.0%
@ 2.10+5.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
WilliamHill
1.80
BetVictor
1.80
SBO
1.78
Marathon Be
1.72
Betano
1.70
Under
Bet365
2.10
Betano
2.00
SBO
1.93
WilliamHill
1.91
BetVictor
1.83
Over/Under 156.5Actual: Over 156.5
Over 156.5
35.3%
@ 2.22-6.2pp
Under 156.5
64.7%
@ 1.61+6.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.22
Bet365
2.22
Under
Marathon Be
1.61
Bet365
1.58
Betano
1.57
📊 3. Team Totals
Maryland total 69.5Actual: Maryland over 69.5
Over 69.5
74.2%
@ 1.38+8.7pp
Under 69.5
25.8%
@ 2.62-8.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.38
Under
Betano
2.62
Maryland total 73.5 · main lineActual: Maryland over 73.5
Over 73.5
60.3%
@ 1.91+10.3pp
Under 73.5
39.7%
@ 1.90-10.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
WilliamHill
1.91
Pinnacle
1.89
Marathon Be
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Betano
1.80
Under
Betano
1.90
Pinnacle
1.89
Bet365
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
Maryland total 77.5Actual: Maryland over 77.5
Over 77.5
44.8%
@ 2.45+7.8pp
Under 77.5
55.2%
@ 1.44-7.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.45
Under
Betano
1.44
Virginia total 76Actual: Virginia over 76
Over 76
43.1%
Under 76
56.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Virginia total 80 · main lineActual: Virginia over 80
Over 80
28.4%
@ 1.85-21.6pp
Under 80
71.6%
@ 1.85+21.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.85
Virginia total 83.5Actual: Virginia over 83.5
Over 83.5
no forecast
@ 2.55
Under 83.5
no forecast
@ 1.40
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.55
Under
Betano
1.40
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Maryland +3Actual: Virginia -3
MARY +3
65.5%
@ 2.25+24.4pp
VIRG -3
34.5%
@ 1.57-24.4pp
Best 5 market prices
MARY
Bet365
2.25
VIRG
Bet365
1.57
Spread Maryland +6 · main lineActual: Maryland +6
MARY +6
75.4%
@ 1.87+24.2pp
VIRG -6
24.6%
@ 1.96-24.2pp
Best 5 market prices
MARY
Pinnacle
1.87
SBO
1.85
Bet365
1.80
Marathon Be
1.79
VIRG
Pinnacle
1.96
Marathon Be
1.92
Bet365
1.91
SBO
1.85
Spread Maryland +9Actual: Maryland +9
MARY +9
83.2%
@ 1.52+22.0pp
VIRG -9
16.8%
@ 2.40-22.0pp
Best 5 market prices
MARY
Bet365
1.52
VIRG
Bet365
2.40
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
MarylandVirginia
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (Maryland) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: Virginia win
MARY win
no forecast
@ 2.40
VIRG win
no forecast
@ 1.57
2nd half Spread Maryland +2.5 · main lineActual: Virginia -2.5
MARY +2.5
no forecast
@ 1.87
VIRG -2.5
no forecast
@ 1.87
2nd half Over/Under 78.5 · main lineActual: Over 78.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.90
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Virginia (regulation)
MARY
no forecast
@ 2.45
Draw
no forecast
@ 18.00
VIRG
no forecast
@ 1.62
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Maryland +5
72.2%
1.95
Pinnacle
2.07
Bet365
1.95
Marathon Bet
1.89
SBO
1.88
-
+26.0pp
Won
Maryland +5.5
73.1%
1.88
Pinnacle
1.98
Betano
1.91
Bet365
1.91
SBO
1.88
Marathon Bet
1.85
+24.4pp
Won
Maryland +6
75.4%
1.83
Pinnacle
1.87
SBO
1.85
Bet365
1.80
Marathon Bet
1.79
-
+24.2pp
Won
Maryland +7
78.2%
1.72
Marathon Bet
1.74
Pinnacle
1.73
Bet365
1.68
-
-
+22.8pp
Won
Maryland +6.5
76.1%
1.78
1xBet
1.83
Betano
1.80
Pinnacle
1.79
BetVictor
1.78
SBO
1.78
+22.6pp
Won
Maryland +8
80.8%
1.60
Pinnacle
1.63
Bet365
1.58
-
-
-
+22.3pp
Won
Maryland +9
83.2%
1.52
Bet365
1.52
-
-
-
-
+22.0pp
Won
Maryland +8.5
81.3%
1.55
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.55
-
-
-
+21.8pp
Won
Virginia under 80
71.6%
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
-
-
-
+21.6pp
Lost
Maryland +7.5
78.8%
1.66
Marathon Bet
1.69
Pinnacle
1.67
Betano
1.65
Bet365
1.64
-
+21.5pp
Won
Maryland +9.5
83.6%
1.48
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.47
-
-
-
+21.1pp
Won
Maryland +10
85.3%
1.44
Bet365
1.44
-
-
-
-
+20.8pp
Won
Maryland +10.5
85.6%
1.42
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.41
-
-
-
+20.2pp
Won
Maryland +11
87.2%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
-
+19.7pp
Won
Maryland +14.5
91.8%
1.29
Betano
1.29
-
-
-
-
+19.6pp
Won
Maryland +11.5
87.4%
1.36
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.36
-
-
-
+19.5pp
Won
Maryland +12.5
89.1%
1.31
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
+18.4pp
Won
Maryland +12
88.9%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+18.4pp
Won
Virginia under 80.5
72.6%
1.79
Marathon Bet
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
WilliamHill
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Pinnacle
1.74
+18.4pp
Lost
Maryland +13
90.4%
1.27
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
-
+17.6pp
Won
Maryland +13.5
90.5%
1.26
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
+17.1pp
Won
Maryland over 69.5
74.2%
1.38
Betano
1.38
-
-
-
-
+8.7pp
Won
Maryland over 70.5
71.0%
1.45
Betano
1.45
-
-
-
-
+8.6pp
Won
Under 161.5
75.0%
1.35
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
+6.4pp
Lost
Under 159
70.5%
1.44
Bet365
1.44
-
-
-
-
+5.9pp
Lost
Under 159.5
71.1%
1.41
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
+5.6pp
Lost
Under 160
72.5%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+5.5pp
Lost
Under 160.5
73.1%
1.37
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.36
-
-
-
+5.5pp
Lost
Under 161
74.5%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+5.0pp
Lost
Overtime: no
94.6%
1.04
WilliamHill
1.05
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
+4.1pp
Won
Virginia over 60.5
91.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-2.6pp
Won
Virginia over 62.5
87.5%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-4.1pp
Won
Virginia over 64.5
82.9%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-7.5pp
Won
Virginia over 66.5
77.5%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-10.8pp
Won
Virginia over 68.5
71.3%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-14.3pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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