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Virginia vs Drexel Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 04 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 00:30
Final 89-60
51-27 38-33
Position#99
Record-
FormWWLWL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
Virginia 🏆
USA
Vs
83%
17%
■ VIRG 83%■ DREX 17%
Pythia win probability
Projected 76-65
Projected total 140.5
Drexel
USA
Position#342
Record-
FormWWLWL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

The Virginia Cavaliers host the Drexel Dragons on 3 November 2026 in an NCAA contest where the model names Virginia the clear favourite, rating them 83% to win against Drexel's 17%. Virginia's season so far shows a strong offensive output, averaging 76 points per game in the projected score, while Drexel is expected to score 65, a gap that reflects the Cavaliers' higher scoring average and defensive consistency. In their last five outings Virginia won three and lost two, with a recent loss to Tennessee 72-79 at home on 22 March 2026, a win over Wright State 82-73 at home on 20 March 2026, and a loss to Duke 70-74 away on 14 March 2026; Drexel likewise has three wins and two losses in their last five, having fallen to Monmouth 57-65 away on 8 March 2026, beaten Northeastern 84-77 at home on 7 March 2026, and lost to Hofstra 51-62 away on 3 March 2026. The projected total of 140.5 points sits below the over-under line of 143.0, giving the model a 43% chance the game will exceed that line, and there is a 3% probability of overtime.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Virginia winWon
83.1%fair 1.20
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Drexel winLost
16.9%fair 5.92
Best odds65.00
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 02 Nov 07:08 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

VirginiaUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Miami (FL)
#38
W
86-83
86
83
+3
H21/02
NCAA
NC State
#128
W
90-61
90
61
+29
H25/02
NCAA
Duke
#8
L
51-77
51
77
-26
A28/02
NCAA
Wake Forest
#190
W
75-70
75
70
+5
H04/03
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
W
76-72
76
72
+4
H07/03
NCAA
NC State
#128
W
81-74
81
74
+7
H12/03
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
W
84-62
84
62
+22
H13/03
NCAA
Duke
#8
L
70-74
70
74
-4
A15/03
NCAA
Wright State
#94
W
82-73
82
73
+9
H20/03
NCAA
Tennessee
#67
L
72-79
72
79
-7
H22/03
NCAA
1H
2H
39-44
47-39
32-19
58-42
26-41
25-36
32-24
43-46
41-25
35-47
33-32
48-42
38-23
46-39
36-38
34-36
38-43
44-30
31-36
41-43
149.2Avg total
76.7Scored
72.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)76.772.5149.2+4.270%
Last 5 (5)77.872.4150.2+5.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)60.575.5136.0-15.00%
vs Similar (11)79.870.7150.5+9.182%
vs Weaker (17)81.167.4148.4+13.794%
DrexelUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Campbell
#222
L
60-81
60
81
-21
A06/02
NCAA
Elon
#256
W
82-77
82
77
+5
A07/02
NCAA
Monmouth
#159
L
73-93
73
93
-20
H13/02
NCAA
Stony Brook
#182
L
69-72
69
72
-3
A17/02
NCAA
Northeastern
#358
W
70-61
70
61
+9
A20/02
NCAA
Towson
#157
W
68-62
68
62
+6
H22/02
NCAA
Campbell
#222
W
65-60
65
60
+5
H27/02
NCAA
Hofstra
#54
L
51-62
51
62
-11
A04/03
NCAA
Northeastern
#358
W
84-77
84
77
+7
H07/03
NCAA
Monmouth
#159
L
57-65
57
65
-8
A08/03
NCAA
1H
2H
36-39
24-42
46-38
36-39
22-45
51-48
35-36
34-36
29-24
41-37
33-27
35-35
27-27
38-33
32-26
19-36
39-22
45-55
33-32
24-33
138.9Avg total
67.9Scored
71.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)67.971.0138.9-3.150%
Last 5 (5)65.065.2130.2-0.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)60.265.8126.0-5.620%
vs Similar (19)66.167.5133.6-1.553%
vs Weaker (6)75.064.0139.0+11.083%
Over/Under 138.5Actual: Over 138.5
Over 138.5
54.5%
@ 1.55-5.9pp
Under 138.5
45.5%
@ 2.40+5.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.52
Under
Bet365
2.40
Betano
2.27
Over/Under 143.5 · main lineActual: Over 143.5
Over 143.5
42.3%
@ 2.05-8.2pp
Under 143.5
57.7%
@ 1.93+8.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.05
Bet365
2.01
WilliamHill
2.00
Marathon Be
1.92
Pinnacle
1.89
Under
Pinnacle
1.93
Marathon Be
1.77
Betano
1.75
Bet365
1.74
WilliamHill
1.73
Over/Under 148.5Actual: Over 148.5
Over 148.5
30.9%
@ 2.80-2.7pp
Under 148.5
69.1%
@ 1.40+2.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.80
Betano
2.70
Under
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.38

📊 3. Team Totals

Virginia total 83Actual: Virginia over 83
Over 83
22.3%
Under 83
77.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Virginia total 87 · main lineActual: Virginia over 87
Over 87
12.0%
@ 1.85-38.1pp
Under 87
88.0%
@ 1.86+38.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
Under
Marathon Be
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Virginia total 91Actual: Virginia under 91
Over 91
5.7%
Under 91
94.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Drexel total 52.5Actual: Drexel over 52.5
Over 52.5
no forecast
@ 1.47
Under 52.5
no forecast
@ 2.62
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.47
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.44
Under
1xBet
2.62
Bet365
2.55
Betano
2.35
Drexel total 57 · main lineActual: Drexel over 57
Over 57
78.5%
@ 1.85+28.5pp
Under 57
21.5%
@ 1.85-28.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Drexel total 61Actual: Drexel under 61
Over 61
64.7%
Under 61
35.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Virginia -34.5Actual: Drexel +34.5
VIRG -34.5
no forecast
@ 2.27
DREX +34.5
no forecast
@ 1.60
Best 5 market prices
VIRG
Betano
2.27
Bet365
2.20
DREX
Bet365
1.60
Betano
1.55
Spread Virginia -31.5 · main lineActual: Drexel +31.5
VIRG -31.5
no forecast
@ 1.93
DREX +31.5
no forecast
@ 1.90
Best 5 market prices
VIRG
Marathon Be
1.93
Bet365
1.91
Betano
1.90
BetVictor
1.83
DREX
Bet365
1.90
Betano
1.87
Marathon Be
1.80
BetVictor
1.80
Spread Virginia -28.5Actual: Virginia -28.5
VIRG -28.5
no forecast
@ 1.90
DREX +28.5
no forecast
@ 2.25
Best 5 market prices
VIRG
Pinnacle
1.90
BetVictor
1.80
Marathon Be
1.73
Betano
1.60
Bet365
1.57
DREX
Bet365
2.25
Betano
2.18
Pinnacle
1.92
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.83

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-6-3+0+3+61st half1st half: +2.1+2.11st half: +1.6+1.62nd half2nd half: +2.1+2.12nd half: -4.7-4.7
-6-3+0+3+61st half1st half: +2.1+2.11st half: +1.6+1.62nd half2nd half: +2.1+2.12nd half: -4.7-4.7
VirginiaDrexel
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
VirginiaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Miami (FL)
#38
L
39-44
39
44
-5
H21/02
NCAA
NC State
#128
W
32-19
32
19
+13
H25/02
NCAA
Duke
#8
L
26-41
26
41
-15
A28/02
NCAA
Wake Forest
#190
W
32-24
32
24
+8
H04/03
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
W
41-25
41
25
+16
H07/03
NCAA
NC State
#128
W
33-32
33
32
+1
H12/03
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
W
38-23
38
23
+15
H13/03
NCAA
Duke
#8
L
36-38
36
38
-2
A15/03
NCAA
Wright State
#94
L
38-43
38
43
-5
H20/03
NCAA
Tennessee
#67
L
31-36
31
36
-5
H22/03
NCAA
67.1Avg total
34.6Scored
32.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 67
Last 30 (30)37.230.968.0+6.370%53%
Last 30 at home (18)37.830.067.8+7.883%56%
Last 30 away (12)36.232.268.4+4.150%50%
Last 10 (10)34.632.567.1+2.150%30%
Last 5 (5)35.234.469.6+0.840%40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)31.039.570.5-8.50%50%
vs Similar (11)37.530.668.1+6.873%45%
vs Weaker (17)37.730.067.7+7.776%59%
DrexelLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Campbell
#222
L
36-39
36
39
-3
A06/02
NCAA
Elon
#256
W
46-38
46
38
+8
A07/02
NCAA
Monmouth
#159
L
22-45
22
45
-23
H13/02
NCAA
Stony Brook
#182
L
35-36
35
36
-1
A17/02
NCAA
Northeastern
#358
W
29-24
29
24
+5
A20/02
NCAA
Towson
#157
W
33-27
33
27
+6
H22/02
NCAA
Campbell
#222
D
27-27
27
27
+0
H27/02
NCAA
Hofstra
#54
W
32-26
32
26
+6
A04/03
NCAA
Northeastern
#358
W
39-22
39
22
+17
H07/03
NCAA
Monmouth
#159
W
33-32
33
32
+1
A08/03
NCAA
64.8Avg total
33.2Scored
31.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 67
Last 30 (30)32.330.062.3+2.363%23%
Last 30 at home (17)31.530.261.8+1.359%24%
Last 30 away (13)33.329.662.9+3.769%23%
Last 10 (10)33.231.664.8+1.660%30%
Last 5 (5)32.826.859.6+6.080%0%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)28.231.459.6-3.240%0%
vs Similar (19)33.530.664.1+2.963%37%
vs Weaker (6)32.026.858.8+5.283%0%
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winnerActual: Virginia win
VIRG win
no forecast
@ 1.03
DREX win
no forecast
@ 13.50
1st half Spread Virginia -17 · main lineActual: Virginia -17
VIRG -17
no forecast
@ 1.89
DREX +17
no forecast
@ 1.93
1st half Over/Under 67 · main lineActual: Over 67
Over
no forecast
@ 1.87
Under
no forecast
@ 1.93
Virginia 1st half total 42 · main lineActual: Virginia over 42
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.89
Drexel 1st half total 25.5 · main lineActual: Drexel over 25.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.98
Under
no forecast
@ 1.83
1st half: VIRG + total 67.5
VIRG & over
no forecast
@ 1.83
VIRG & under
no forecast
@ 1.83
1st half: Draw + total 67.5
Draw & over
no forecast
@ 41.00
Draw & under
no forecast
@ 41.00
1st half: DREX + total 67.5
DREX & over
no forecast
@ 36.00
DREX & under
no forecast
@ 36.00
1st half Over/Under 65.5Actual: Over 65.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.75
Under
no forecast
@ 2.05
1st half Over/Under 68.5Actual: Over 68.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.18
Under
no forecast
@ 1.72
1st half Spread Virginia -18Actual: Virginia -18
VIRG -18
no forecast
@ 2.10
DREX +18
no forecast
@ 1.83
1st half Spread Virginia -16Actual: Virginia -16
VIRG -16
no forecast
@ 1.83
DREX +16
no forecast
@ 2.10
1st half Spread Virginia -19Actual: Virginia -19
VIRG -19
no forecast
@ 2.31
DREX +19
no forecast
@ 1.62
1st half Over/Under 63.5Actual: Over 63.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.52
Under
no forecast
@ 2.35
1st half Over/Under 70.5Actual: Over 70.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.57
Under
no forecast
@ 1.50
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Virginia (regulation)
VIRG
no forecast
@ 1.03
Draw
no forecast
@ 41.00
DREX
no forecast
@ 19.00

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
VIRG win + total 142.5
🔒 Pro
DREX win + total 142.5
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: VIRG leads at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: level at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: DREX leads at half
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: close (1-10 points)
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: clear (11-20 points)
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: blowout (21+ points)
🔒 Pro
🔒 8 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Drexel +2488.0%3.45
Bet365
3.45		----+61.1ppLost
Drexel +2589.6%3.10
Bet365
3.10		----+59.6ppLost
Drexel +2386.3%3.45
Bet365
3.45		----+59.4ppLost
Drexel +23.586.5%3.38
Bet365
3.60
Betano
3.15		---+59.0ppLost
Drexel +24.588.2%3.04
Bet365
3.20
Betano
2.87		---+57.6ppLost
Drexel +21.582.6%3.80
Bet365
4.40
Betano
3.20		---+57.5ppLost
Drexel +22.584.6%3.30
Bet365
3.60
Betano
3.00		---+56.3ppLost
Virginia under 83.578.4%2.45
Bet365
2.55
1xBet
2.50
Betano
2.30		--+40.9ppLost
Virginia under 81.572.0%2.92
Bet365
3.10
Betano
2.75		---+40.6ppLost
Virginia under 82.575.3%2.52
Betano
2.52		----+39.3ppLost
Virginia under 8788.0%1.85
Marathon Bet
1.86
BetVictor
1.85		---+38.1ppLost
Virginia under 8685.8%1.88
Marathon Bet
1.88		----+36.6ppLost
Virginia under 85.583.8%1.93
Betano
2.02
Pinnacle
1.99
WilliamHill
1.91
Marathon Bet
1.87
BetVictor
1.85		+36.5ppLost
Virginia under 84.581.2%2.02
Betano
2.12
WilliamHill
1.91		---+35.7ppLost
Virginia under 86.586.1%1.88
Betano
1.91
WilliamHill
1.91
Pinnacle
1.87
Marathon Bet
1.87
Bet365
1.86		+35.5ppLost
Drexel over 58.573.0%2.52
Bet365
2.65
1xBet
2.50
Betano
2.40		--+35.5ppWon
Virginia under 87.588.2%1.75
Pinnacle
1.75
Betano
1.75		---+34.3ppLost
Virginia under 8583.4%1.87
Marathon Bet
1.87		----+33.9ppLost
Virginia under 88.590.1%1.60
Betano
1.60		----+33.7ppLost
Drexel over 56.579.1%1.95
Betano
2.02
Pinnacle
2.01
WilliamHill
1.91
Marathon Bet
1.85		-+32.2ppWon
Virginia under 89.591.7%1.55
1xBet
1.57
Bet365
1.55
Betano
1.52		--+32.0ppWon
Drexel over 5681.4%1.86
Marathon Bet
1.87
BetVictor
1.85		---+31.6ppWon
Drexel over 55.581.9%1.84
Pinnacle
1.87
Betano
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Marathon Bet
1.83		+31.2ppWon
Virginia under 90.593.1%1.44
Betano
1.44		----+30.2ppWon
Drexel over 5778.5%1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85		---+28.5ppWon
Drexel over 57.576.2%1.99
Betano
2.18
WilliamHill
1.91
Marathon Bet
1.87		--+27.6ppWon
Virginia under 91.594.3%1.37
Bet365
1.38
Betano
1.36		---+27.6ppWon
Under 149.571.2%1.35
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.33		---+2.3ppWon
Under 15072.7%1.32
Bet365
1.32		----+2.2ppWon
Under 14970.6%1.35
Bet365
1.35		----+1.7ppPush
Under 150.573.3%1.29
Bet365
1.29		----+1.4ppWon
Under 167.594.8%1.01
Bet365
1.01		----+1.1ppWon
Under 162.591.0%1.03
Bet365
1.03		----+0.5ppWon
Under 152.577.1%1.20
Bet365
1.20		-----0.7ppWon
Under 157.585.1%1.09
Bet365
1.09		-----1.0ppWon
Over 117.592.1%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----1.6ppWon
Over 122.586.5%1.03
Bet365
1.03		-----3.8ppWon
Over 127.578.6%1.10
Bet365
1.10		-----7.0ppWon
Virginia over 67.579.5%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----14.2ppWon
Virginia over 69.573.4%1.02
Bet365
1.02		-----18.1ppWon
Drexel under 70.571.5%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----22.1ppWon
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Virginia wins
0
Drexel wins
No previous meetings.
Virginialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
22/03/26HTennessee72-79
20/03/26HWright State82-73
15/03/26ADuke70-74
13/03/26HMiami (FL)84-62
12/03/26HNC State81-74
07/03/26HVirginia Tech76-72
04/03/26HWake Forest75-70
28/02/26ADuke51-77
25/02/26HNC State90-61
21/02/26HMiami (FL)86-83
Drexellast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/03/26AMonmouth57-65
07/03/26HNortheastern84-77
04/03/26AHofstra51-62
27/02/26HCampbell65-60
22/02/26HTowson68-62
20/02/26ANortheastern70-61
17/02/26AStony Brook69-72
13/02/26HMonmouth73-93
07/02/26AElon82-77
06/02/26ACampbell60-81

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Virginia
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over 143.5---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
Drexel
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over 143.5---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Pittsburgh110100%95.057.0+38.0
2 Duke110100%84.050.0+34.0
3 Virginia Tech110100%88.054.0+34.0
4 California110100%115.086.0+29.0
5 Boston College110100%76.050.0+26.0
6 Wake Forest110100%83.062.0+21.0
7 Georgia Tech110100%75.055.0+20.0
8 NC State110100%83.064.0+19.0
9 Syracuse110100%74.058.0+16.0
10 Louisville110100%84.070.0+14.0
11 Clemson110100%85.072.0+13.0
12 SMU Mustangs110100%85.072.0+13.0
13 Stanford110100%74.065.0+9.0
14 North Carolina110100%80.072.0+8.0
15 Notre Dame110100%74.072.0+2.0
16 Miami (FL)1010%67.077.0-10.0
17 Florida State1010%69.0112.0-43.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Coastal Athletic Association conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Charleston110100%111.055.0+56.0
2 Stony Brook110100%97.047.0+50.0
3 Hofstra110100%97.051.0+46.0
4 N. Carolina A&T110100%92.053.0+39.0
5 NC Wilmington110100%101.065.0+36.0
6 William & Mary110100%80.066.0+14.0
7 Elon110100%84.071.0+13.0
8 Northeastern1010%85.093.0-8.0
9 Campbell1010%64.083.0-19.0
10 Towson1010%70.089.0-19.0
11 Hampton1010%55.075.0-20.0
12 Monmouth2020%52.081.5-29.5
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Virginia513889
Drexel273360
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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