Minnesota hosts North Dakota on 2 November 2026 in a low-scoring NCAA matchup where the Pythia model projects a tight 74-68 win for the Gophers, a 70% chance of victory and a 30% chance for the Fighting Hawks, with the Gophers the model favourite. Minnesota's season record in all games shows a balanced performance, while North Dakota's all-competition record is similarly even; both teams have struggled to maintain momentum, each winning two of their last five games. Minnesota's recent outings include a 67-72 loss to Rutgers at home on 11 March 2026, a 67-66 win over Northwestern on 7 March 2026, and a 47-77 defeat to Indiana away on 4 March 2026, while North Dakota's recent results feature a 62-70 loss to North Dakota State away on 8 March 2026, a 67-66 win over St. Thomas (Minn.) away on 7 March 2026, and an 83-67 victory over Denver at home on 6 March 2026. Their head-to-head history shows Minnesota winning both of the two meetings, the last being a 76-67 victory on 4 December 2020. The Pythia model sets the total at 148.5 with a 35% probability of the over, and a 5% chance of overtime. The Gophers' defence will be key as the game is expected to stay close.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Minnesota winWon
69.8%fair 1.43
Best odds1.01
Implied94.2%
Edge-24.5pp
North Dakota winLost
30.2%fair 3.31
Best odds29.00
Implied5.8%
Edge+24.5pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 01 Nov 07:04 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
Minnesota total 87 · main lineActual: Minnesota under 87
Over 87
9.4%
@ 1.85-40.6pp
Under 87
90.6%
@ 1.85+40.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Minnesota total 91Actual: Minnesota under 91
Over 91
4.3%
Under 91
95.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
North Dakota total 57.5Actual: North Dakota under 57.5
Over 57.5
85.2%
@ 1.44+22.2pp
Under 57.5
14.8%
@ 2.45-22.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
Under
Betano
2.45
North Dakota total 61.5 · main lineActual: North Dakota under 61.5
Over 61.5
74.2%
@ 1.95+25.3pp
Under 61.5
25.8%
@ 1.85-25.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.95
BetVictor
1.95
WilliamHill
1.91
Marathon Be
1.87
Bet365
1.86
Under
1xBet
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
BetVictor
1.83
WilliamHill
1.80
Bet365
1.80
North Dakota total 65.5Actual: North Dakota under 65.5
Over 65.5
60.1%
@ 2.70+26.6pp
Under 65.5
39.9%
@ 1.36-26.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.70
Under
Betano
1.36
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Minnesota -29.5Actual: Minnesota -29.5
MINN -29.5
no forecast
@ 2.25
NORT +29.5
no forecast
@ 1.57
Best 5 market prices
MINN
Bet365
2.25
Betano
2.22
NORT
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Spread Minnesota -26.5 · main lineActual: Minnesota -26.5
MINN -26.5
no forecast
@ 1.90
NORT +26.5
no forecast
@ 1.91
Best 5 market prices
MINN
Betano
1.90
1xBet
1.90
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Be
1.88
BetVictor
1.85
NORT
Bet365
1.91
Betano
1.88
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.83
1xBet
1.80
Spread Minnesota -23.5Actual: Minnesota -23.5
MINN -23.5
6.6%
@ 1.57-52.1pp
NORT +23.5
93.4%
@ 2.25+52.1pp
Best 5 market prices
MINN
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.57
NORT
Bet365
2.25
Betano
2.22
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
MinnesotaNorth Dakota
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
North Dakota +16.5
82.6%
4.50
Bet365
4.50
-
-
-
-
+62.1pp
Lost
North Dakota +19
88.1%
3.50
Bet365
3.50
-
-
-
-
+61.4pp
Lost
North Dakota +18.5
86.6%
3.65
Bet365
3.65
-
-
-
-
+61.0pp
Lost
North Dakota +18
86.3%
3.70
Bet365
3.70
-
-
-
-
+61.0pp
Lost
North Dakota +20
89.6%
3.15
Bet365
3.15
-
-
-
-
+60.1pp
Lost
North Dakota +17.5
84.7%
3.75
Bet365
3.75
-
-
-
-
+60.0pp
Lost
North Dakota +19.5
88.3%
3.08
Bet365
3.20
Betano
2.95
-
-
-
+58.1pp
Lost
North Dakota +21
91.0%
2.80
Bet365
2.80
-
-
-
-
+58.0pp
Lost
North Dakota +20.5
89.8%
2.83
Bet365
2.90
Betano
2.75
-
-
-
+57.0pp
Lost
North Dakota +22
92.2%
2.60
Bet365
2.60
-
-
-
-
+56.4pp
Lost
North Dakota +21.5
91.1%
2.60
Bet365
2.65
Betano
2.55
-
-
-
+55.6pp
Lost
North Dakota +22.5
92.3%
2.44
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.37
-
-
-
+54.2pp
Lost
North Dakota +23
93.3%
2.35
Bet365
2.35
-
-
-
-
+53.7pp
Lost
North Dakota +24
94.3%
2.20
Bet365
2.20
-
-
-
-
+52.2pp
Lost
North Dakota +23.5
93.4%
2.24
Bet365
2.25
Betano
2.22
-
-
-
+52.1pp
Lost
North Dakota +24.5
94.3%
2.06
Bet365
2.10
Betano
2.07
1xBet
2.00
-
-
+50.0pp
Lost
North Dakota +25
95.1%
2.01
Bet365
2.05
Marathon Bet
1.98
-
-
-
+49.2pp
Lost
Minnesota under 80.5
73.8%
3.75
Bet365
3.75
-
-
-
-
+49.1pp
Lost
Minnesota under 82.5
79.8%
2.86
Bet365
3.00
Betano
2.72
-
-
-
+47.6pp
Lost
Minnesota under 84.5
84.9%
2.40
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.30
-
-
-
+46.4pp
Lost
Minnesota under 83.5
82.5%
2.50
Betano
2.50
-
-
-
-
+46.2pp
Lost
Minnesota under 81.5
76.9%
2.82
Betano
2.82
-
-
-
-
+44.8pp
Lost
Minnesota under 85.5
87.1%
2.10
Betano
2.10
-
-
-
-
+43.9pp
Won
Minnesota under 88
92.2%
1.83
Marathon Bet
1.83
-
-
-
-
+41.6pp
Won
Minnesota under 87.5
90.8%
1.87
Pinnacle
1.92
BetVictor
1.91
Betano
1.85
1xBet
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
+41.4pp
Won
Minnesota under 87
90.6%
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
-
+40.6pp
Won
Minnesota under 86.5
89.1%
1.91
Betano
2.00
Pinnacle
1.93
1xBet
1.90
Bet365
1.86
Marathon Bet
1.85
+40.1pp
Won
Minnesota under 88.5
92.3%
1.72
Betano
1.72
-
-
-
-
+38.5pp
Won
Minnesota under 89.5
93.6%
1.60
Betano
1.60
-
-
-
-
+36.9pp
Won
Minnesota under 90.5
94.8%
1.52
Bet365
1.54
Betano
1.50
-
-
-
+34.4pp
Won
Minnesota under 91.5
95.7%
1.42
Betano
1.42
-
-
-
-
+31.9pp
Won
North Dakota over 60
79.6%
1.82
Marathon Bet
1.82
-
-
-
-
+28.7pp
Lost
North Dakota over 62.5
70.9%
2.05
Betano
2.05
-
-
-
-
+26.8pp
Lost
North Dakota over 61
76.6%
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
-
-
-
+26.6pp
Lost
North Dakota over 61.5
74.2%
1.90
Betano
1.95
BetVictor
1.95
WilliamHill
1.91
Marathon Bet
1.87
Bet365
1.86
+25.3pp
Lost
North Dakota over 59.5
80.1%
1.67
Betano
1.67
-
-
-
-
+24.8pp
Lost
North Dakota over 60.5
77.3%
1.82
Marathon Bet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.80
1xBet
1.80
+24.1pp
Lost
North Dakota over 57.5
85.2%
1.44
Betano
1.44
-
-
-
-
+22.2pp
Lost
North Dakota over 58.5
82.8%
1.52
Betano
1.53
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
+21.9pp
Lost
North Dakota over 55.5
89.3%
1.30
Betano
1.30
-
-
-
-
+19.5pp
Lost
North Dakota over 56.5
87.3%
1.35
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
+19.3pp
Lost
Under 151
70.9%
1.66
Marathon Bet
1.70
Bet365
1.62
-
-
-
+13.9pp
Won
Under 151.5
71.5%
1.61
Marathon Bet
1.66
Betano
1.60
Bet365
1.58
-
-
+13.5pp
Won
Under 152
73.0%
1.55
Bet365
1.55
-
-
-
-
+13.3pp
Won
Under 152.5
73.5%
1.52
Betano
1.53
Bet365
1.52
-
-
-
+12.8pp
Won
Under 153
75.0%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+12.5pp
Won
Under 153.5
75.4%
1.46
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.45
-
-
-
+12.1pp
Won
Under 154
76.9%
1.43
Bet365
1.43
-
-
-
-
+11.9pp
Won
Under 154.5
77.3%
1.41
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
+11.7pp
Won
Under 155
78.7%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
-
+11.1pp
Won
Under 155.5
79.0%
1.36
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
+11.1pp
Won
Under 156
80.4%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+10.4pp
Won
Under 156.5
80.7%
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
-
+9.3pp
Won
Under 158.5
83.8%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+7.6pp
Won
Under 157.5
82.3%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+6.1pp
Won
Under 168.5
94.1%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+4.4pp
Won
Under 163.5
89.9%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+4.4pp
Won
Under 173.5
96.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.9pp
Won
Under 172.5
96.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.4pp
Won
Under 162.5
88.8%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+3.3pp
Won
Under 167.5
93.4%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+3.1pp
Won
Over 122.5
88.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-4.2pp
Won
Over 123.5
87.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-5.5pp
Won
Over 127.5
81.5%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-8.2pp
Won
Over 128.5
79.8%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-9.9pp
Won
North Dakota under 76.5
78.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-13.3pp
Won
Over 132.5
72.1%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-13.4pp
Won
Over 133.5
70.1%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-15.5pp
Won
North Dakota under 74.5
73.0%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-17.7pp
Won
Minnesota over 68.5
71.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-21.8pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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