Mississippi St. will host Tennessee Tech in a low-scoring NCAA contest on 2 November 2026, with both teams expected to lean heavily on defence and a slow pace. Mississippi St. has gone 0-5 in its last five games, losing to Auburn 61-79, Georgia 96-102 and Florida 74-108, while Tennessee Tech has won three and lost two of its most recent five, falling to Southeast Missouri State 73-89 and UT Martin 49-64 but defeating Lindenwood 72-57. The model favours Mississippi St. with a 69% chance of victory versus Tennessee Tech's 31%, projecting a 78-72 finish and a total of 149.6 points. The home team's line is -18.0 with only a 13% probability of covering, and the over/under line of 157.0 carries a 32% chance of an over. An overtime probability of 5% rounds out the outlook. Mississippi St. will need to hold its defensive edge to keep the game within the projected spread.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | no games | ||||
| Season at home | no games | ||||
| Season away | no games | ||||
| Last 10 (10) | 77.2 | 89.8 | 167.0 | -12.6 | 20% |
| Last 5 (5) | 74.0 | 95.4 | 169.4 | -21.4 | 0% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (20) | 75.3 | 85.2 | 160.6 | -9.9 | 25% |
| vs Similar (10) | 81.1 | 75.6 | 156.7 | +5.5 | 70% |
| vs Weaker | no games | ||||
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | no games | ||||
| Season at home | no games | ||||
| Season away | no games | ||||
| Last 10 (10) | 73.2 | 70.3 | 143.5 | +2.9 | 60% |
| Last 5 (5) | 67.6 | 67.2 | 134.8 | +0.4 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (13) | 70.0 | 81.2 | 151.2 | -11.2 | 31% |
| vs Similar (12) | 69.2 | 71.1 | 140.3 | -1.8 | 33% |
| vs Weaker (4) | 93.8 | 63.2 | 157.0 | +30.5 | 100% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 74.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 36.1 | 38.4 | 74.5 | -2.3 | 43% | 60% |
| Last 30 at home (16) | 34.6 | 36.8 | 71.4 | -2.2 | 50% | 50% |
| Last 30 away (14) | 37.9 | 40.1 | 78.0 | -2.3 | 36% | 71% |
| Last 10 (10) | 36.4 | 42.5 | 78.9 | -6.1 | 40% | 70% |
| Last 5 (5) | 34.2 | 47.2 | 81.4 | -13.0 | 40% | 80% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (20) | 35.5 | 40.3 | 75.8 | -4.8 | 35% | 65% |
| vs Similar (10) | 37.2 | 34.5 | 71.7 | +2.7 | 60% | 50% |
| vs Weaker | no games | |||||
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 74.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 33.2 | 33.2 | 66.4 | -0.1 | 40% | 27% |
| Last 30 at home (14) | 35.8 | 31.3 | 67.1 | +4.5 | 43% | 36% |
| Last 30 away (16) | 30.9 | 34.9 | 65.8 | -4.1 | 38% | 19% |
| Last 10 (10) | 33.0 | 30.7 | 63.7 | +2.3 | 60% | 30% |
| Last 5 (5) | 30.0 | 29.2 | 59.2 | +0.8 | 60% | 0% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (13) | 31.5 | 36.4 | 67.8 | -4.9 | 23% | 23% |
| vs Similar (12) | 30.3 | 32.7 | 63.0 | -2.3 | 42% | 17% |
| vs Weaker (4) | 43.8 | 27.0 | 70.8 | +16.8 | 75% | 75% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tennessee Tech +12 | 72.1% | 3.05 | 3.05 | - | - | - | - | +41.6pp | Lost |
| Tennessee Tech +14 | 77.8% | 2.55 | 2.55 | - | - | - | - | +41.3pp | Lost |
| Tennessee Tech +13 | 75.1% | 2.72 | 2.72 | - | - | - | - | +41.1pp | Lost |
| Tennessee Tech +15.5 | 80.8% | 2.23 | 2.40 | 2.20 | 2.18 | 2.12 | - | +41.0pp | Lost |
| Tennessee Tech +16 | 82.7% | 2.21 | 2.29 | 2.12 | - | - | - | +40.8pp | Lost |
| Tennessee Tech +15 | 80.4% | 2.30 | 2.30 | - | - | - | - | +40.1pp | Lost |
| Tennessee Tech +13.5 | 75.8% | 2.58 | 2.60 | 2.57 | - | - | - | +39.9pp | Lost |
| Tennessee Tech +12.5 | 73.0% | 2.79 | 2.80 | 2.77 | - | - | - | +39.8pp | Lost |
| Tennessee Tech +16.5 | 83.1% | 2.08 | 2.19 | 2.07 | 2.05 | 2.00 | - | +39.4pp | Lost |
| Tennessee Tech +14.5 | 78.4% | 2.35 | 2.35 | 2.35 | - | - | - | +39.0pp | Lost |
| Tennessee Tech +17 | 84.8% | 2.01 | 2.08 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 1.96 | - | +38.7pp | Lost |
| Mississippi St. under 84.5 | 75.2% | 2.40 | 2.50 | 2.30 | - | - | - | +36.8pp | Lost |
| Tennessee Tech +17.5 | 85.1% | 1.92 | 1.99 | 1.95 | 1.93 | 1.92 | 1.90 | +36.7pp | Lost |
| Mississippi St. under 83.5 | 72.0% | 2.55 | 2.55 | - | - | - | - | +36.6pp | Lost |
| Tennessee Tech +18 | 86.7% | 1.83 | 1.88 | 1.84 | 1.82 | 1.80 | - | +35.8pp | Push |
| Mississippi St. under 85.5 | 78.3% | 2.12 | 2.12 | - | - | - | - | +35.7pp | Lost |
| Mississippi St. under 88 | 85.6% | 1.85 | 1.85 | - | - | - | - | +35.6pp | Lost |
| Mississippi St. under 86.5 | 81.1% | 2.00 | 2.00 | - | - | - | - | +34.8pp | Lost |
| Mississippi St. under 88.5 | 85.9% | 1.77 | 1.80 | 1.80 | 1.70 | - | - | +34.6pp | Lost |
| Tennessee Tech +18.5 | 87.0% | 1.79 | 1.82 | 1.80 | 1.80 | 1.78 | 1.78 | +33.7pp | Won |
| Mississippi St. under 87.5 | 83.6% | 1.84 | 1.85 | 1.85 | 1.85 | 1.83 | 1.83 | +33.6pp | Lost |
| Tennessee Tech +19 | 88.4% | 1.73 | 1.74 | 1.71 | - | - | - | +33.3pp | Won |
| Mississippi St. under 87 | 83.2% | 1.85 | 1.85 | - | - | - | - | +33.2pp | Lost |
| Tennessee Tech +20 | 90.0% | 1.62 | 1.62 | - | - | - | - | +32.9pp | Won |
| Tennessee Tech +20.5 | 90.1% | 1.60 | 1.64 | 1.60 | 1.57 | - | - | +32.4pp | Won |
| Tennessee Tech +19.5 | 88.6% | 1.68 | 1.72 | 1.68 | 1.67 | 1.66 | - | +31.6pp | Won |
| Mississippi St. under 89.5 | 88.0% | 1.57 | 1.57 | - | - | - | - | +30.2pp | Lost |
| Tennessee Tech +21 | 91.3% | 1.52 | 1.52 | - | - | - | - | +30.1pp | Won |
| Tennessee Tech +21.5 | 91.4% | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.50 | - | - | - | +29.6pp | Won |
| Mississippi St. under 90.5 | 89.9% | 1.50 | 1.52 | 1.47 | - | - | - | +28.5pp | Lost |
| Tennessee Tech +22 | 92.5% | 1.45 | 1.45 | - | - | - | - | +28.3pp | Won |
| Tennessee Tech +22.5 | 92.6% | 1.44 | 1.44 | 1.43 | - | - | - | +28.1pp | Won |
| Mississippi St. under 91.5 | 91.5% | 1.40 | 1.40 | - | - | - | - | +26.7pp | Lost |
| Tennessee Tech +23 | 93.6% | 1.38 | 1.38 | - | - | - | - | +26.6pp | Won |
| Tennessee Tech +23.5 | 93.6% | 1.37 | 1.37 | 1.36 | - | - | - | +25.9pp | Won |
| Tennessee Tech +24 | 94.5% | 1.32 | 1.32 | - | - | - | - | +24.0pp | Won |
| Tennessee Tech +24.5 | 94.5% | 1.31 | 1.32 | 1.30 | - | - | - | +23.7pp | Won |
| Tennessee Tech +25 | 95.3% | 1.26 | 1.26 | - | - | - | - | +21.5pp | Won |
| Under 158 | 70.4% | 1.79 | 1.81 | 1.80 | 1.79 | 1.78 | - | +17.9pp | Lost |
| Under 160 | 74.4% | 1.62 | 1.62 | - | - | - | - | +17.4pp | Lost |
| Under 159 | 72.5% | 1.70 | 1.72 | 1.70 | 1.68 | - | - | +17.4pp | Lost |
| Under 158.5 | 71.0% | 1.75 | 1.80 | 1.77 | 1.77 | 1.75 | 1.74 | +17.3pp | Lost |
| Under 159.5 | 73.0% | 1.67 | 1.70 | 1.69 | 1.66 | 1.66 | 1.62 | +16.9pp | Lost |
| Under 161 | 76.3% | 1.55 | 1.55 | - | - | - | - | +16.6pp | Lost |
| Under 160.5 | 74.9% | 1.58 | 1.58 | 1.57 | - | - | - | +16.3pp | Lost |
| Under 162 | 78.2% | 1.50 | 1.50 | - | - | - | - | +15.7pp | Lost |
| Under 161.5 | 76.8% | 1.51 | 1.52 | 1.50 | - | - | - | +15.4pp | Lost |
| Under 163 | 79.9% | 1.43 | 1.43 | - | - | - | - | +14.9pp | Lost |
| Under 162.5 | 78.6% | 1.45 | 1.45 | 1.45 | - | - | - | +14.6pp | Lost |
| Under 164 | 81.5% | 1.38 | 1.38 | - | - | - | - | +14.5pp | Lost |
| Under 163.5 | 80.2% | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.40 | - | - | - | +14.2pp | Lost |
| Under 164.5 | 81.8% | 1.36 | 1.37 | 1.35 | - | - | - | +13.8pp | Lost |
| Under 165 | 83.1% | 1.33 | 1.33 | - | - | - | - | +13.1pp | Lost |
| Under 165.5 | 83.3% | 1.31 | 1.31 | - | - | - | - | +12.4pp | Lost |
| Under 167.5 | 86.1% | 1.22 | 1.22 | - | - | - | - | +9.9pp | Lost |
| Tennessee Tech over 65.5 | 73.3% | 1.40 | 1.40 | - | - | - | - | +8.6pp | Won |
| Under 172.5 | 91.5% | 1.11 | 1.11 | - | - | - | - | +7.1pp | Lost |
| Tennessee Tech over 64.5 | 76.5% | 1.31 | 1.33 | 1.30 | - | - | - | +6.8pp | Won |
| Tennessee Tech over 62.5 | 82.1% | 1.20 | 1.20 | - | - | - | - | +4.3pp | Won |
| Tennessee Tech over 56.5 | 93.4% | 1.04 | 1.04 | - | - | - | - | +4.1pp | Won |
| Tennessee Tech over 60.5 | 86.8% | 1.12 | 1.12 | - | - | - | - | +3.7pp | Won |
| Tennessee Tech over 58.5 | 90.5% | 1.07 | 1.07 | - | - | - | - | +3.4pp | Won |
| Tennessee Tech over 59.5 | 88.8% | 1.10 | 1.10 | - | - | - | - | +3.2pp | Won |
| Tennessee Tech under 84.5 | 88.4% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | -2.3pp | Lost |
| Tennessee Tech under 82.5 | 84.4% | 1.05 | 1.05 | - | - | - | - | -4.3pp | Lost |
| Tennessee Tech under 80.5 | 79.5% | 1.09 | 1.09 | - | - | - | - | -6.5pp | Lost |
| Over 132.5 | 84.9% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | -7.3pp | Won |
| Tennessee Tech under 79.5 | 76.8% | 1.11 | 1.11 | - | - | - | - | -7.6pp | Lost |
| Tennessee Tech under 78.5 | 73.8% | 1.14 | 1.14 | - | - | - | - | -7.6pp | Lost |
| Mississippi St. over 68.5 | 81.5% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | -11.3pp | Won |
| Over 137.5 | 76.6% | 1.04 | 1.04 | - | - | - | - | -12.8pp | Won |
| Mississippi St. over 69.5 | 78.8% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | -13.5pp | Won |
| Mississippi St. over 70.5 | 75.8% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | -15.3pp | Won |
| Mississippi St. +2.5 | 74.9% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | -17.9pp | Won |
| Mississippi St. over 71.5 | 72.7% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | -18.1pp | Won |
| Mississippi St. +1.5 | 71.4% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | -21.3pp | Won |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/02/26 | A | Southeast Missouri State | 73-89 |
| 27/02/26 | A | UT Martin | 49-64 |
| 21/02/26 | H | Lindenwood | 72-57 |
| 20/02/26 | H | Siu Edwardsville | 62-52 |
| 14/02/26 | A | Southern Indiana | 82-74 |
| 13/02/26 | A | Morehead State | 66-73 |
| 07/02/26 | H | Eastern Illinois | 54-60 |
| 06/02/26 | H | Western Illinois | 97-72 |
| 03/02/26 | A | Tennessee State | 90-85 |
| 31/01/26 | H | UALR | 87-77 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | - | - |
| Home | - | - |
| Away | - | - |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | - | - | - |
| Win % | - | - | - |
| Points / game | - | - | - |
| Allowed / game | - | - | - |
| Point differential | - | - | - |
| Avg total | - | - | - |
| Over 157 | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | - | - | - |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | - | - | - |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | - | - |
| Home | - | - |
| Away | - | - |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | - | - | - |
| Win % | - | - | - |
| Points / game | - | - | - |
| Allowed / game | - | - | - |
| Point differential | - | - | - |
| Avg total | - | - | - |
| Over 157 | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | - | - | - |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | - | - | - |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vanderbilt | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 93.0 | 47.0 | +46.0 |
| 2 | Florida | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 77.0 | 67.0 | +10.0 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Siu Edwardsville | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 91.0 | 39.0 | +52.0 |
| 2 | UALR | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 72.0 | 82.0 | -10.0 |
| 3 | Tennessee State | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 64.0 | 94.0 | -30.0 |
| 4 | Eastern Illinois | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 57.0 | 91.0 | -34.0 |
| Team | 1H | 2H | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mississippi St. | 53 | 53 | 106 |
| Tennessee Tech | 37 | 51 | 88 |
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