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Mississippi St. vs Auburn Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 19 Feb 2026
Tip-off: 02:00
Final 91-85
49-33 42-52
Position#257
Record13-12
FormWLLLW
Points / game78.0
Allowed / game77.7
vs
Position#188
Record14-11
FormWLLLL
Points / game84.0
Allowed / game79.0
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · Mississippi St. v Auburn
18 Feb 2026
MISS91
AUBU85
27 Jan 2024
MISS64
AUBU58
02 Mar 2022
MISS68
AUBU81
04 Jan 2020
MISS68
AUBU80
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Mississippi St. winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Auburn winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Mississippi St.USALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Kentucky
#107
L
68-92
68
92
-24
A11/01
NCAA
Alabama
#48
L
82-97
82
97
-15
H14/01
NCAA
Ole Miss
#259
L
67-68
67
68
-1
H18/01
NCAA
Texas A&M
#82
L
68-88
68
88
-20
A22/01
NCAA
Vanderbilt
#37
L
56-88
56
88
-32
H24/01
NCAA
LSU
#230
W
80-66
80
66
+14
A29/01
NCAA
Missouri
#111
L
79-84
79
84
-5
A31/01
NCAA
Arkansas
#36
L
68-88
68
88
-20
H07/02
NCAA
Tennessee
#67
L
64-73
64
73
-9
H12/02
NCAA
Ole Miss
#259
W
90-78
90
78
+12
A14/02
NCAA
1H
2H
39-44
29-48
34-36
48-61
30-27
37-41
33-44
35-44
30-51
26-37
44-21
36-45
35-42
44-42
30-43
38-45
28-39
36-34
47-28
43-50
154.4Avg total
72.2Scored
82.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (25)78.077.7155.7+0.352%
Season at home (15)76.174.1150.3+2.053%
Season away (10)80.883.1163.9-2.350%
Last 10 (10)72.282.2154.4-10.020%
Last 5 (5)76.277.8154.0-1.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (16)75.981.7157.6-5.831%
vs Similar (12)80.776.2156.8+4.558%
vs Weaker (2)88.562.0150.5+26.5100%
This opponent (Auburn) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AuburnUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Arkansas
#36
W
95-73
95
73
+22
H10/01
NCAA
Missouri
#111
L
74-84
74
84
-10
A15/01
NCAA
South Carolina
#278
W
71-67
71
67
+4
H17/01
NCAA
Ole Miss
#259
W
78-66
78
66
+12
A21/01
NCAA
Florida
#28
W
76-67
76
67
+9
A24/01
NCAA
Texas
#135
W
88-82
88
82
+6
H29/01
NCAA
Tennessee
#67
L
69-77
69
77
-8
A01/02
NCAA
Alabama
#48
L
92-96
92
96
-4
H07/02
NCAA
Vanderbilt
#37
L
76-84
76
84
-8
H11/02
NCAA
Arkansas
#36
L
75-88
75
88
-13
A15/02
NCAA
1H
2H
49-34
46-39
34-38
40-46
30-24
41-43
28-27
50-39
43-28
33-39
34-42
54-40
31-41
38-36
41-37
51-59
31-42
45-42
32-38
43-50
157.8Avg total
79.4Scored
78.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (25)84.079.0163.0+4.956%
Season at home (16)88.477.0165.4+11.469%
Season away (9)76.082.7158.7-6.733%
Last 10 (10)79.478.4157.8+1.050%
Last 5 (5)80.085.4165.4-5.420%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)78.385.2163.6-6.925%
vs Similar (11)85.572.7158.2+12.773%
vs Weaker ◀ (7)86.470.6157.0+15.9100%
This opponent (Mississippi St.) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-9-5+0+5+91st half1st half: -2.5-2.51st half: +0.2+0.22nd half2nd half: -7.5-7.52nd half: +0.8+0.8
-9-5+0+5+91st half1st half: -2.5-2.51st half: +0.2+0.22nd half2nd half: -7.5-7.52nd half: +0.8+0.8
Mississippi St.Auburn
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Mississippi St.Last 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Kentucky
#107
L
39-44
39
44
-5
A11/01
NCAA
Alabama
#48
L
34-36
34
36
-2
H14/01
NCAA
Ole Miss
#259
W
30-27
30
27
+3
H18/01
NCAA
Texas A&M
#82
L
33-44
33
44
-11
A22/01
NCAA
Vanderbilt
#37
L
30-51
30
51
-21
H24/01
NCAA
LSU
#230
W
44-21
44
21
+23
A29/01
NCAA
Missouri
#111
L
35-42
35
42
-7
A31/01
NCAA
Arkansas
#36
L
30-43
30
43
-13
H07/02
NCAA
Tennessee
#67
L
28-39
28
39
-11
H12/02
NCAA
Ole Miss
#259
W
47-28
47
28
+19
A14/02
NCAA
72.5Avg total
35.0Scored
37.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.736.373.0+0.443%-
Last 30 at home (18)35.235.070.2+0.250%-
Last 30 away (12)39.038.377.3+0.733%-
Last 10 (10)35.037.572.5-2.530%-
Last 5 (5)36.834.671.4+2.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (16)36.138.274.3-2.131%-
vs Similar (12)36.834.871.6+1.950%-
vs Weaker (2)41.030.571.5+10.5100%-
This opponent (Auburn) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AuburnLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Arkansas
#36
W
49-34
49
34
+15
H10/01
NCAA
Missouri
#111
L
34-38
34
38
-4
A15/01
NCAA
South Carolina
#278
W
30-24
30
24
+6
H17/01
NCAA
Ole Miss
#259
W
28-27
28
27
+1
A21/01
NCAA
Florida
#28
W
43-28
43
28
+15
A24/01
NCAA
Texas
#135
L
34-42
34
42
-8
H29/01
NCAA
Tennessee
#67
L
31-41
31
41
-10
A01/02
NCAA
Alabama
#48
W
41-37
41
37
+4
H07/02
NCAA
Vanderbilt
#37
L
31-42
31
42
-11
H11/02
NCAA
Arkansas
#36
L
32-38
32
38
-6
A15/02
NCAA
70.4Avg total
35.3Scored
35.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.935.273.1+2.757%-
Last 30 at home (21)39.333.973.2+5.571%-
Last 30 away (9)34.638.473.0-3.922%-
Last 10 (10)35.335.170.4+0.250%-
Last 5 (5)33.840.073.8-6.220%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)35.841.276.9-5.425%-
vs Similar (11)40.231.371.5+8.982%-
vs Weaker ◀ (7)38.031.369.3+6.771%-
This opponent (Mississippi St.) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Mississippi St. wins
7
Auburn wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/02/26AOle Miss90-78
12/02/26HTennessee64-73
07/02/26HArkansas68-88
31/01/26AMissouri79-84
29/01/26ALSU80-66
24/01/26HVanderbilt56-88
22/01/26ATexas A&M68-88
18/01/26HOle Miss67-68
14/01/26HAlabama82-97
11/01/26AKentucky68-92
Auburnlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/02/26AArkansas75-88
11/02/26HVanderbilt76-84
07/02/26HAlabama92-96
01/02/26ATennessee69-77
29/01/26HTexas88-82
24/01/26AFlorida76-67
21/01/26AOle Miss78-66
17/01/26HSouth Carolina71-67
15/01/26AMissouri74-84
10/01/26HArkansas95-73

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Mississippi St.
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLLW52%
HomeLLLLL53%
AwayLLWLW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games251510
Win %52%53%50%
Points / game78.076.180.8
Allowed / game77.774.183.1
Point differential+0.3+2.0-2.3
Avg total155.7150.3163.9
Over main line---
Win by 10+28%27%30%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (8)60% (5)33% (3)
Overtime %12%13%10%
Auburn
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLLL56%
HomeWWWLL69%
AwayLWWLL33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games25169
Win %56%69%33%
Points / game84.088.476.0
Allowed / game79.077.082.7
Point differential+4.9+11.4-6.7
Avg total163.0165.4158.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+40%50%22%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (6)40% (5)0% (1)
Overtime %8%6%11%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Southeastern conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Vanderbilt2521484%88.473.6+14.8
2 Florida2620677%86.171.1+15.0
3 Tennessee2619773%81.369.2+12.2
4 Arkansas2619773%89.878.0+11.7
5 Alabama2619773%92.783.9+8.8
6 Georgia2618869%90.278.3+11.8
7 Texas A&M2618869%89.478.5+10.9
8 Missouri2517868%80.074.3+5.7
9 Texas2617965%85.374.8+10.5
10 Kentucky2617965%81.572.7+8.8
11 Auburn25141156%84.079.0+4.9
12 LSU26141254%80.975.8+5.1
13 Mississippi St.25131252%78.077.7+0.3
14 Oklahoma26131350%82.878.2+4.6
15 Ole Miss26111542%74.273.9+0.2
16 South Carolina26111542%75.975.9-0.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Mississippi St.494291
Auburn335285
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