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Missouri State vs Abilene Christian Prediction & Stats

Date: Tue 17 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 01:00
Projected 81-66
Projected total 146.4
Scheduled
Position#34
Record3-0
FormWLWWW
Points / game85.3
Allowed / game61.3
Missouri State
USA
Vs
90%
■ MISS 90%■ ABIL 10%
Pythia win probability
Abilene Christian
USA
Position#293
Record1-2
FormWLLWL
Points / game71.0
Allowed / game83.7
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Meetings · Missouri State v Abilene Christian
16 Nov 2026
MISS v ABIL
upcoming
20 Nov 2023
MISS87
ABIL69
Sections
Game preview & prediction

Missouri State faces Abilene Christian on 16 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the Pythia model designating Missouri State as the clear favourite at 90% versus 10% for Abilene Christian, a reflection of the Bears' undefeated 3-0 season record, 85.3 points scored and 61.3 points allowed per game, and their league position of 34, compared with the Crusaders' 1-2 record, 71.0 points scored and 83.7 points allowed per game, and a league position of 293. Missouri State has won all three of its home games, scoring 85.3 points per game and allowing 61.3, while Abilene Christian has gone 0-1 on the road, averaging 59.0 points scored and 94.0 points allowed. In the last five games Missouri State won four and lost one, with recent victories over Newman Jets 89-62, Truman State 79-62, and Lincoln Mo. 88-60, whereas Abilene Christian's recent five include two wins and three losses, with a 71-76 loss to Stephen F. Austin, a 83-81 win over Lamar, and a 59-94 defeat to Colorado. Their only previous meeting ended 87-69 in favour of Missouri State on 20 November 2023. Pythia projects a score of 81-66, a total of 146.4 points, and a 2% chance of overtime.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Missouri State win
90.3%fair 1.11
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Abilene Christian win
9.7%fair 10.27
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 15 Nov 06:59 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Missouri StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Louisiana Tech
#131
L
70-72
70
72
-2
A27/02
NCAA
Sam Houston St.
#69
L
81-86
81
86
-5
A28/02
NCAA
Western Kentucky
#151
W
87-74
87
74
+13
H06/03
NCAA
Middle Tenn. St.
#179
L
63-75
63
75
-12
H07/03
NCAA
Florida International
#232
W
75-72
75
72
+3
A10/03
NCAA
Liberty
#26
W
77-69
77
69
+8
A11/03
NCAA
Louisiana Tech
#131
L
66-69
66
69
-3
A13/03
NCAA
Lincoln Mo.
#408
W
88-60
88
60
+28
H04/11
NCAA
Truman State
#375
W
79-62
79
62
+17
H07/11
NCAA
Newman Jets
#403
W
89-62
89
62
+27
H11/11
NCAA
1H
2H
38-37
32-35
34-43
47-43
43-38
44-36
27-37
36-38
31-36
44-36
33-37
44-32
27-30
39-39
49-26
39-34
34-29
45-33
41-29
48-33
147.6Avg total
77.5Scored
70.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)85.361.3146.7+24.0100%
Season at home (3)85.361.3146.7+24.0100%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)77.570.1147.6+7.460%
Last 5 (5)79.864.4144.2+15.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)78.084.7162.7-6.714%
vs Similar (15)74.574.9149.4-0.347%
vs Weaker ◀ (5)66.458.6125.0+7.880%
This opponent (Abilene Christian) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Abilene ChristianUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Southern Utah
#329
W
87-83
87
83
+4
H21/02
NCAA
Utah Tech
#158
L
81-85
81
85
-4
A27/02
NCAA
Utah Valley State
#33
L
67-74
67
74
-7
A28/02
NCAA
California Baptist
#41
L
48-87
48
87
-39
A06/03
NCAA
UT Arlington
#150
L
57-64
57
64
-7
H08/03
NCAA
Tarleton
#255
W
84-78
84
78
+6
H12/03
NCAA
Utah Tech
#158
L
74-80
74
80
-6
A13/03
NCAA
Colorado
#213
L
59-94
59
94
-35
A03/11
NCAA
Lamar
#144
W
83-81
83
81
+2
H07/11
NCAA
Stephen F. Austin
#89
L
71-76
71
76
-5
H12/11
NCAA
1H
2H
38-48
49-35
38-47
43-38
32-34
35-40
19-49
29-38
33-25
24-39
39-25
45-53
28-46
46-34
34-36
25-58
39-31
44-50
29-35
42-41
151.3Avg total
71.1Scored
80.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)71.083.7154.7-12.733%
Season at home (2)77.078.5155.5-1.550%
Season away (1)59.094.0153.0-35.00%
Last 10 (10)71.180.2151.3-9.130%
Last 5 (5)74.281.8156.0-7.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (16)65.677.4142.9-11.825%
vs Similar (12)73.575.5149.0-2.042%
vs Weaker (2)79.059.0138.0+20.0100%
This opponent (Missouri State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 141
Over 141
63.0%
Under 141
37.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 146
Over 146
50.6%
Under 146
49.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 151
Over 151
38.2%
Under 151
61.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Missouri State total 75.5
Over 75.5
69.9%
Under 75.5
30.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Missouri State total 79.5
Over 79.5
54.7%
Under 79.5
45.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Missouri State total 83.5
Over 83.5
38.6%
Under 83.5
61.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Abilene Christian total 62.5
Over 62.5
62.2%
Under 62.5
37.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Abilene Christian total 66.5
Over 66.5
46.4%
Under 66.5
53.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Abilene Christian total 70.5
Over 70.5
31.4%
Under 70.5
68.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Missouri State -3
MISS -3
86.6%
ABIL +3
13.4%
Best 5 market prices
MISS
No market prices yet.
ABIL
No market prices yet.
Spread Missouri State 0
MISS 0
90.3%
ABIL 0
9.7%
Best 5 market prices
MISS
No market prices yet.
ABIL
No market prices yet.
Spread Missouri State +3
MISS +3
93.5%
ABIL -3
6.5%
Best 5 market prices
MISS
No market prices yet.
ABIL
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-7-4+0+4+71st half1st half: +1.5+1.51st half: -4.7-4.72nd half2nd half: +5.9+5.92nd half: -4.4-4.4
-7-4+0+4+71st half1st half: +1.5+1.51st half: -4.7-4.72nd half2nd half: +5.9+5.92nd half: -4.4-4.4
Missouri StateAbilene Christian
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Missouri StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Louisiana Tech
#131
W
38-37
38
37
+1
A27/02
NCAA
Sam Houston St.
#69
L
34-43
34
43
-9
A28/02
NCAA
Western Kentucky
#151
W
43-38
43
38
+5
H06/03
NCAA
Middle Tenn. St.
#179
L
27-37
27
37
-10
H07/03
NCAA
Florida International
#232
L
31-36
31
36
-5
A10/03
NCAA
Liberty
#26
L
33-37
33
37
-4
A11/03
NCAA
Louisiana Tech
#131
L
27-30
27
30
-3
A13/03
NCAA
Lincoln Mo.
#408
W
49-26
49
26
+23
H04/11
NCAA
Truman State
#375
W
34-29
34
29
+5
H07/11
NCAA
Newman Jets
#403
W
41-29
41
29
+12
H11/11
NCAA
69.9Avg total
35.7Scored
34.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)34.333.968.2+0.443%-
Last 30 at home (15)37.232.269.4+5.067%-
Last 30 away (15)31.435.566.9-4.120%-
Last 10 (10)35.734.269.9+1.550%-
Last 5 (5)36.830.267.0+6.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)34.442.076.4-7.60%-
vs Similar (15)34.133.968.0+0.347%-
vs Weaker ◀ (5)30.426.056.4+4.460%-
This opponent (Abilene Christian) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Abilene ChristianLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Southern Utah
#329
L
38-48
38
48
-10
H21/02
NCAA
Utah Tech
#158
L
38-47
38
47
-9
A27/02
NCAA
Utah Valley State
#33
L
32-34
32
34
-2
A28/02
NCAA
California Baptist
#41
L
19-49
19
49
-30
A06/03
NCAA
UT Arlington
#150
W
33-25
33
25
+8
H08/03
NCAA
Tarleton
#255
W
39-25
39
25
+14
H12/03
NCAA
Utah Tech
#158
L
28-46
28
46
-18
A13/03
NCAA
Colorado
#213
L
34-36
34
36
-2
A03/11
NCAA
Lamar
#144
W
39-31
39
31
+8
H07/11
NCAA
Stephen F. Austin
#89
L
29-35
29
35
-6
H12/11
NCAA
70.5Avg total
32.9Scored
37.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)32.136.268.3-4.133%-
Last 30 at home (15)33.234.567.7-1.347%-
Last 30 away (15)30.937.968.9-7.020%-
Last 10 (10)32.937.670.5-4.730%-
Last 5 (5)33.834.668.4-0.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (16)30.835.966.7-5.125%-
vs Similar (12)32.937.870.7-4.833%-
vs Weaker (2)37.029.566.5+7.5100%-
This opponent (Missouri State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Missouri State wins
0
Abilene Christian wins
DateGameScore
21/11/23Missouri State v Abilene Christian87-69
Missouri Statelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/11/26HNewman Jets89-62
07/11/26HTruman State79-62
04/11/26HLincoln Mo.88-60
13/03/26ALouisiana Tech66-69
11/03/26ALiberty77-69
10/03/26AFlorida International75-72
07/03/26HMiddle Tenn. St.63-75
06/03/26HWestern Kentucky87-74
28/02/26ASam Houston St.81-86
27/02/26ALouisiana Tech70-72
Abilene Christianlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/26HStephen F. Austin71-76
07/11/26HLamar83-81
03/11/26AColorado59-94
13/03/26AUtah Tech74-80
12/03/26HTarleton84-78
08/03/26HUT Arlington57-64
06/03/26ACalifornia Baptist48-87
28/02/26AUtah Valley State67-74
27/02/26AUtah Tech81-85
21/02/26HSouthern Utah87-83

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Missouri State
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWW100%
HomeWWW100%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games33-
Win %100%100%-
Points / game85.385.3-
Allowed / game61.361.3-
Point differential+24.0+24.0-
Avg total146.7146.7-
Over main line---
Win by 10+100%100%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%-
Abilene Christian
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWL33%
HomeWL50%
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games321
Win %33%50%0%
Points / game71.077.059.0
Allowed / game83.778.594.0
Point differential-12.7-1.5-35.0
Avg total154.7155.5153.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)50% (2)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Conference USA conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Kennesaw State440100%95.564.8+30.8
2 Missouri State330100%85.361.3+24.0
3 Florida International330100%91.771.0+20.7
4 Western Kentucky43175%84.263.5+20.8
5 Middle Tenn. St.43175%80.876.2+4.5
6 Liberty32167%81.364.0+17.3
7 UTEP32167%71.767.3+4.3
8 Louisiana Tech42250%69.863.2+6.5
9 Jacksonville State42250%80.075.5+4.5
10 Sam Houston St.42250%86.885.0+1.8
11 Delaware31233%76.762.7+14.0
12 New Mexico State31233%66.378.3-12.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Western Athletic conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Utah Valley State330100%86.075.7+10.3
2 UT Arlington54180%88.270.8+17.4
3 Tarleton43175%81.270.5+10.8
4 Southern Utah53260%96.869.6+27.2
5 Abilene Christian31233%71.083.7-12.7
6 Utah Tech41325%80.587.2-6.8
7 California Baptist41325%66.877.0-10.2
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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