PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
Missouri faces Alcorn State in an NCAA contest on 18 November 2026, with the model designating Missouri as the clear favourite thanks to their 2-1 record and an average of 97.0 points per game against only 66.0 allowed, placing them 126th in the league; Alcorn State struggles at 0-3, scoring 66.0 per game while conceding 95.7, a 413th league spot. Missouri's home form remains 2-1, with a 97.0 points per game and 66.0 allowed, while Alcorn State's road record is 0-2, averaging 57.5 points and 96.5 conceded. Missouri's last five games include a 111-50 win over Cleveland State, a 96-58 victory over Siu Edwardsville, and a 84-90 loss to St. Louis Billikens, whereas Alcorn State's recent outings were losses to Murray State, Howard, and Ole Miss. The Pythia model gives Missouri a 99% chance of winning and Alcorn State a 1% chance, projecting a 94-62 score for a total of 156.6 points. Missouri's line is 94-62, and the model predicts a 0% chance of overtime. The game will likely see Missouri dominate from the start.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 97.0 | 66.0 | 163.0 | +31.0 | 67% |
| Season at home (3) | 97.0 | 66.0 | 163.0 | +31.0 | 67% |
| Season away | no games | ||||
| Last 10 (10) | 82.4 | 75.1 | 157.5 | +7.3 | 40% |
| Last 5 (5) | 85.8 | 71.2 | 157.0 | +14.6 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (9) | 72.2 | 82.2 | 154.4 | -10.0 | 33% |
| vs Similar (11) | 74.4 | 80.1 | 154.5 | -5.7 | 36% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (10) | 87.9 | 64.8 | 152.7 | +23.1 | 90% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 66.0 | 95.7 | 161.7 | -29.7 | 0% |
| Season at home (1) | 83.0 | 94.0 | 177.0 | -11.0 | 0% |
| Season away (2) | 57.5 | 96.5 | 154.0 | -39.0 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 66.7 | 79.3 | 146.0 | -12.6 | 30% |
| Last 5 (5) | 66.2 | 83.4 | 149.6 | -17.2 | 20% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (26) | 65.6 | 82.1 | 147.7 | -16.5 | 23% |
| vs Similar (2) | 84.5 | 77.0 | 161.5 | +7.5 | 50% |
| vs Weaker (2) | 70.5 | 65.0 | 135.5 | +5.5 | 100% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 37.0 | 33.8 | 70.8 | +3.2 | 43% | - |
| Last 30 at home (17) | 39.6 | 32.5 | 72.1 | +7.1 | 53% | - |
| Last 30 away (13) | 33.6 | 35.6 | 69.2 | -2.0 | 31% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 38.0 | 32.9 | 70.9 | +5.1 | 30% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 39.4 | 31.2 | 70.6 | +8.2 | 40% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (9) | 31.6 | 35.9 | 67.4 | -4.3 | 11% | - |
| vs Similar (11) | 32.7 | 37.4 | 70.1 | -4.6 | 18% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (10) | 46.6 | 28.1 | 74.7 | +18.5 | 100% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 31.6 | 38.8 | 70.4 | -7.2 | 20% | - |
| Last 30 at home (11) | 31.5 | 34.4 | 65.9 | -2.8 | 18% | - |
| Last 30 away (19) | 31.6 | 41.3 | 72.9 | -9.7 | 21% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 30.5 | 37.4 | 67.9 | -6.9 | 30% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 30.2 | 40.6 | 70.8 | -10.4 | 40% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (26) | 30.9 | 39.5 | 70.4 | -8.7 | 15% | - |
| vs Similar (2) | 35.5 | 43.5 | 79.0 | -8.0 | 0% | - |
| vs Weaker (2) | 37.0 | 24.0 | 61.0 | +13.0 | 100% | - |
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| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11/26 | H | Siu Edwardsville | 96-58 |
| 07/11/26 | H | St. Louis Billikens | 84-90 |
| 04/11/26 | H | Cleveland State | 111-50 |
| 21/03/26 | A | Miami (FL) | 66-80 |
| 12/03/26 | H | Kentucky | 72-78 |
| 07/03/26 | H | Arkansas | 84-88 OT |
| 04/03/26 | A | Oklahoma | 64-80 |
| 28/02/26 | A | Mississippi St. | 88-64 |
| 25/02/26 | H | Tennessee | 73-69 |
| 21/02/26 | A | Arkansas | 86-94 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11/26 | A | Murray State | 57-94 |
| 06/11/26 | H | Howard | 83-94 |
| 03/11/26 | A | Ole Miss | 58-99 |
| 10/03/26 | A | Prairie View A&M | 56-65 |
| 09/03/26 | A | Alabama State | 77-65 |
| 06/03/26 | H | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | 48-83 |
| 04/03/26 | H | Miss. Valley St. | 67-64 |
| 28/02/26 | A | Prairie View A&M | 51-72 |
| 27/02/26 | A | Texas Southern | 87-92 OT |
| 21/02/26 | H | Jackson State | 83-65 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WLW | 67% |
| Home | WLW | 67% |
| Away | - | - |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 3 | - |
| Win % | 67% | 67% | - |
| Points / game | 97.0 | 97.0 | - |
| Allowed / game | 66.0 | 66.0 | - |
| Point differential | +31.0 | +31.0 | - |
| Avg total | 163.0 | 163.0 | - |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 67% | 67% | - |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | - |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LLL | 0% |
| Home | L | 0% |
| Away | LL | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| Win % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Points / game | 66.0 | 83.0 | 57.5 |
| Allowed / game | 95.7 | 94.0 | 96.5 |
| Point differential | -29.7 | -11.0 | -39.0 |
| Avg total | 161.7 | 177.0 | 154.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Texas | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 100.0 | 57.0 | +43.0 |
| 2 |  LSU | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 94.0 | 52.7 | +41.3 |
| 3 |  Ole Miss | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 94.0 | 56.3 | +37.7 |
| 4 |  Mississippi St. | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 95.3 | 63.0 | +32.3 |
| 5 |  Texas A&M | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 99.2 | 67.2 | +32.0 |
| 6 |  Vanderbilt | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 90.2 | 60.2 | +30.0 |
| 7 |  Auburn | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 83.5 | 56.0 | +27.5 |
| 8 |  Tennessee | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 80.0 | 53.0 | +27.0 |
| 9 |  Alabama | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 102.0 | 76.0 | +26.0 |
| 10 |  South Carolina | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 78.7 | 54.7 | +24.0 |
| 11 |  Florida | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 82.2 | 62.5 | +19.8 |
| 12 |  Georgia | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 81.8 | 70.2 | +11.5 |
| 13 |  Kentucky | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 80.2 | 75.8 | +4.5 |
| 14 | Missouri | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 97.0 | 66.0 | +31.0 |
| 15 |  Arkansas | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 84.7 | 68.3 | +16.3 |
| 16 |  Oklahoma | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 76.3 | 65.7 | +10.7 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Alabama A&M Bulldogs | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 81.2 | 67.8 | +13.5 |
| 2 |  Grambling St. | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 75.5 | 90.0 | -14.5 |
| 3 |  Prairie View A&M | 5 | 2 | 3 | 40% | 75.4 | 82.0 | -6.6 |
| 4 |  Alabama State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 69.7 | 78.7 | -9.0 |
| 5 |  Texas Southern | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 76.0 | 91.0 | -15.0 |
| 6 |  Florida A&M | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 77.8 | 80.8 | -3.0 |
| 7 |  Jackson State | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 66.5 | 85.8 | -19.2 |
| 8 |  Bethune-Cookman | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0% | 71.0 | 85.5 | -14.5 |
| 9 |  Miss. Valley St. | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 62.3 | 87.0 | -24.7 |
| 10 |  Southern Univ. | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0% | 60.4 | 88.2 | -27.8 |
| 11 | Alcorn State | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 66.0 | 95.7 | -29.7 |
| 12 |  Arkansas-Pine Bluff | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 50.3 | 107.0 | -56.7 |
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