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MKE Ankaragucu vs Darussafaka Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 14 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 15:00
Projected 83-80
Projected total 162.9
Final 88-94
31-15 18-29 21-24 18-26
Position#14
Record3-6
FormWWLLL
Points / game79.2
Allowed / game89.8
MKE Ankaragucu
Turkey
Vs
59%
41%
■ MKE 59%■ DAR 41%
Pythia win probability
Darussafaka 🏆
Turkey
Position#11
Record3-6
FormLLLWL
Points / game76.0
Allowed / game83.4
TurkeyTBLRound 11· TOBB ETÜ Spor Salonu
Other2026-27
Meetings · MKE Ankaragucu v Darussafaka
14 Nov 2026
MKE 88
DAR94
08 Nov 2025
MKE 79
DAR73
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

MKE Ankaragucu will host Darussafaka on 14 November 2026 in the TBL, with the model designating the Turkish side as favourite and forecasting a competitive contest; the projected score is 83-80 and the projected total 162.9 points. Both clubs have finished 3-6 this season, with Ankaragucu averaging 79.2 points and allowing 89.8, while Darussafaka averages 76.0 and permits 83.4, placing them 13th and 12th respectively. Ankaragucu's home record is 3-2, 80.8 points for and 85.8 against, and their last five games yielded two wins and three losses, including a 78-82 defeat to Fenerbahce at home on 8 November, a 62-71 loss to Gaziantep on 31 October, and a 92-95 loss to iLab Basketbol on 24 October. Darussafaka's road record is 1-4, 81.0 points for and 87.8 against, and their last five games contain one win and four losses, with a 90-92 loss to OGM Ormanspor on 31 October, a 90-85 home win over Buyukcekmece on 25 October, and a 82-95 loss to Mersin SK on 18 October. The two teams have split their previous two meetings, the most recent being a 102-92 win for Darussafaka on 28 February 2026. The model gives Ankaragucu a 59% chance of winning, Darussafaka 41%, a 42% probability that the home side covers the -5.0 line, a 45% chance of the over on the 164.5 total, and a 5% likelihood of overtime.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

MKE Ankaragucu winLost
59.0%fair 1.70
Best odds1.50
Implied65.8%
Edge-6.8pp
Darussafaka winWon
41.0%fair 2.44
Best odds2.65
Implied34.2%
Edge+6.8pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 19:45 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

MKE AnkaragucuTurkeyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormAnkaragucu
Date
Competition
Cayirova
#1
L
65-81
65
81
-16
57avg 68
H18/04
TBL
Harem Spor
#1
L
62-113
62
113
-51
50avg 68
A12/09
TBL
Mersin SK
#4
L
70-100
70
100
-30
50avg 68
H19/09
TBL
Buyukcekmece
#6
L
77-89
77
89
-12
66avg 68
A26/09
TBL
OGM Ormanspor
#8
W
91-84
91
84
+7
83avg 68
H03/10
TBL
Goztepe
#2
W
88-86
88
86
+2
68avg 68
H10/10
TBL
Konya BBSK
#13
W
93-88
93
88
+5
87avg 68
H17/10
TBL
iLab Basketbol
#9
L
92-95
92
95
-3
82avg 68
A24/10
TBL
Gaziantep
#5
L
62-71
62
71
-9
57avg 68
H31/10
TBL
Fenerbahce 2
#10
L
78-82
78
82
-4
no box
A08/11
TBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-17
18-19
11-27
18-18
13-19
20-38
16-30
13-26
18-38
23-17
17-29
12-16
15-25
26-26
21-22
15-16
27-17
20-14
22-28
22-25
17-25
29-20
25-24
17-17
18-26
19-28
31-19
25-15
20-24
33-20
12-23
27-28
16-22
15-15
15-19
16-15
22-33
19-12
17-19
20-18
166.7Avg total
77.8Scored
88.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (9)79.289.8169.0-10.633%
Season at home (5)80.885.8166.6-5.060%
Season away (4)77.294.8172.0-17.50%
Last 10 (10)77.888.9166.7-11.130%
Last 5 (5)82.684.4167.0-1.840%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (18)76.686.7163.3-10.128%
vs Similar ◀ (11)81.983.8165.7-1.955%
vs Weaker (1)20.00.020.0+20.0100%
This opponent (Darussafaka) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
DarussafakaTurkeyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormDarussafaka
Date
Competition
CO Basket
#10
L
80-84
80
84
-4
65avg 66
A22/04
TBL
Ankara Kolejliler
#16
L
69-88
69
88
-19
39avg 66
A12/09
TBL
Balikesir
#15
W
67-65
67
65
+2
60avg 66
H20/09
TBL
Kecioren Baglum
#17
W
91-83
91
83
+8
81avg 66
A26/09
TBL
Final Spor
#7
L
75-83
75
83
-8
66avg 66
H04/10
TBL
CO Basket
#12
L
73-81
73
81
-8
65avg 66
A07/10
TBL
Harem Spor
#1
L
47-79
47
79
-32
27avg 66
H11/10
TBL
Mersin SK
#4
L
82-95
82
95
-13
76avg 66
A18/10
TBL
Buyukcekmece
#6
W
90-85
90
85
+5
83avg 66
H25/10
TBL
OGM Ormanspor
#8
L
90-92 OT
90
92
-2
74avg 66
A31/10
TBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
16-19
19-21
18-20
27-24
11-29
17-31
17-12
24-16
22-11
17-20
10-15
18-19
30-20
18-27
17-14
26-22
14-13
21-26
23-19
17-25
14-16
22-25
17-24
20-16
11-27
9-13
9-21
18-18
21-24
19-26
22-24
20-21
23-16
21-17
19-31
27-21
26-16
14-22
22-22
19-21
159.9Avg total
76.4Scored
83.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (9)76.083.4159.4-7.433%
Season at home (4)69.878.0147.8-8.250%
Season away (5)81.087.8168.8-6.820%
Last 10 (10)76.483.5159.9-7.130%
Last 5 (5)76.486.4162.8-10.020%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)71.584.8156.4-13.315%
vs Similar ◀ (15)79.382.8162.1-3.547%
vs Weaker (2)46.540.587.0+6.050%
This opponent (MKE Ankaragucu) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 159.5Actual: Over 159.5
Over 159.5
57.4%
Under 159.5
42.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 164.5 · main lineActual: Over 164.5
Over 164.5
45.4%
@ 1.85-4.5pp
Under 164.5
54.6%
@ 1.85+4.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
WilliamHill
1.85
Pinnacle
1.84
Bet365
1.83
SBO
1.83
Betano
1.82
Under
WilliamHill
1.85
Bet365
1.83
BetVictor
1.83
Pinnacle
1.83
SBO
1.83
Over/Under 169.5Actual: Over 169.5
Over 169.5
33.9%
Under 169.5
66.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

MKE Ankaragucu total 80.5Actual: MKE Ankaragucu over 80.5
Over 80.5
58.5%
@ 1.38-4.7pp
Under 80.5
41.5%
@ 2.37+4.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.38
Under
1xBet
2.37
MKE Ankaragucu total 84.5 · main lineActual: MKE Ankaragucu over 84.5
Over 84.5
43.0%
@ 1.85-7.0pp
Under 84.5
57.0%
@ 1.83+7.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.82
1xBet
1.72
Under
Bet365
1.83
BetVictor
1.83
Betano
1.83
1xBet
1.72
MKE Ankaragucu total 88.5Actual: MKE Ankaragucu under 88.5
Over 88.5
28.6%
@ 2.38-8.1pp
Under 88.5
71.4%
@ 1.38+8.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.38
Under
1xBet
1.38
Darussafaka total 76.5Actual: Darussafaka over 76.5
Over 76.5
63.5%
@ 1.43+2.5pp
Under 76.5
36.5%
@ 2.24-2.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.43
Under
1xBet
2.24
Darussafaka total 80.5 · main lineActual: Darussafaka over 80.5
Over 80.5
48.3%
@ 1.91-0.0pp
Under 80.5
51.7%
@ 1.80+0.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.91
Betano
1.88
Bet365
1.86
1xBet
1.81
Under
Bet365
1.80
BetVictor
1.80
Betano
1.75
1xBet
1.65
Darussafaka total 84.5Actual: Darussafaka over 84.5
Over 84.5
33.6%
@ 2.52-1.3pp
Under 84.5
66.4%
@ 1.35+1.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.52
Under
1xBet
1.35

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread MKE Ankaragucu -8Actual: Darussafaka +8
MKE -8
31.3%
DAR +8
68.7%
Best 5 market prices
MKE
No market prices yet.
DAR
No market prices yet.
Spread MKE Ankaragucu -5 · main lineActual: Darussafaka +5
MKE -5
42.3%
@ 1.88-7.0pp
DAR +5
57.7%
@ 1.82+7.0pp
Best 5 market prices
MKE
SBO
1.88
Pinnacle
1.86
DAR
SBO
1.82
Pinnacle
1.81
Spread MKE Ankaragucu -2Actual: Darussafaka +2
MKE -2
54.1%
DAR +2
45.9%
Best 5 market prices
MKE
No market prices yet.
DAR
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: -6.2-6.2Q1: -0.3-0.3Q2Q2: +1.3+1.3Q2: -5.1-5.1Q3Q3: -5.3-5.3Q3: -2.8-2.8Q4Q4: -0.9-0.9Q4: +1.3+1.3
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: -6.2-6.2Q1: -0.3-0.3Q2Q2: +1.3+1.3Q2: -5.1-5.1Q3Q3: -5.3-5.3Q3: -2.8-2.8Q4Q4: -0.9-0.9Q4: +1.3+1.3
MKE AnkaragucuDarussafaka
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
MKE AnkaragucuLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Cayirova
#1
D
36-36
36
36
+0
H18/04
TBL
Harem Spor
#1
L
33-57
33
57
-24
A12/09
TBL
Mersin SK
#4
L
41-55
41
55
-14
H19/09
TBL
Buyukcekmece
#6
L
41-51
41
51
-10
A26/09
TBL
OGM Ormanspor
#8
W
47-31
47
31
+16
H03/10
TBL
Goztepe
#2
W
46-45
46
45
+1
H10/10
TBL
Konya BBSK
#13
L
37-54
37
54
-17
H17/10
TBL
iLab Basketbol
#9
W
53-44
53
44
+9
A24/10
TBL
Gaziantep
#5
L
31-37
31
37
-6
H31/10
TBL
Fenerbahce 2
#10
L
41-45
41
45
-4
A08/11
TBL
86.1Avg total
40.6Scored
45.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 82.5
Last 30 (29)39.343.582.9-4.231%55%
Last 30 at home (14)40.640.280.8+0.443%43%
Last 30 away (15)38.246.684.8-8.420%67%
Last 10 (10)40.645.586.1-4.930%70%
Last 5 (5)41.645.086.6-3.440%80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (18)39.544.784.2-5.228%61%
vs Similar ◀ (11)39.141.680.7-2.536%45%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Darussafaka) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
DarussafakaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
CO Basket
#10
L
35-40
35
40
-5
A22/04
TBL
Ankara Kolejliler
#16
L
28-60
28
60
-32
A12/09
TBL
Balikesir
#15
W
39-31
39
31
+8
H20/09
TBL
Kecioren Baglum
#17
W
48-47
48
47
+1
A26/09
TBL
Final Spor
#7
L
35-39
35
39
-4
H04/10
TBL
CO Basket
#12
L
36-41
36
41
-5
A07/10
TBL
Harem Spor
#1
L
20-40
20
40
-20
H11/10
TBL
Mersin SK
#4
L
40-50
40
50
-10
A18/10
TBL
Buyukcekmece
#6
W
44-33
44
33
+11
H25/10
TBL
OGM Ormanspor
#8
W
40-38
40
38
+2
A31/10
TBL
78.4Avg total
36.5Scored
41.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 82.5
Last 30 (29)37.341.578.8-4.238%34%
Last 30 at home (13)37.637.575.1+0.246%23%
Last 30 away (16)37.044.881.8-7.831%44%
Last 10 (10)36.541.978.4-5.440%30%
Last 5 (5)36.040.476.4-4.440%20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)35.541.076.5-5.531%23%
vs Similar ◀ (15)38.942.080.9-3.147%47%
vs Weaker (1)36.041.077.0-5.00%0%
This opponent (MKE Ankaragucu) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winnerActual: MKE Ankaragucu win
MKE win
no forecast
@ 1.58
DAR win
no forecast
@ 2.32
1st half Spread MKE Ankaragucu -2.5 · main lineActual: MKE Ankaragucu -2.5
MKE -2.5
no forecast
@ 1.83
DAR +2.5
no forecast
@ 1.91
1st half Over/Under 82.5 · main lineActual: Over 82.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.83
Under
no forecast
@ 1.83
MKE Ankaragucu 1st half total 42.5 · main lineActual: MKE Ankaragucu over 42.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.86
Under
no forecast
@ 1.80
Darussafaka 1st half total 39.5 · main lineActual: Darussafaka over 39.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.88
Under
no forecast
@ 1.86
1st half: MKE + total 81.5
MKE & over
no forecast
@ 3.10
MKE & under
no forecast
@ 3.25
1st half: Draw + total 81.5
Draw & over
no forecast
@ 29.00
Draw & under
no forecast
@ 31.00
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Darussafaka (regulation)
MKE
no forecast
@ 1.64
Draw
no forecast
@ 17.50
DAR
no forecast
@ 2.52

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
MKE win + total 164.5
🔒 Pro
DAR win + total 164.5
🔒 Pro
Overtime
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: MKE leads at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: level at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: DAR leads at half
🔒 Pro
Team with the highest-scoring quarter
🔒 Pro
Highest-scoring half
🔒 Pro
🔒 8 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
MKE Ankaragucu under 89.574.6%1.33
1xBet
1.33		----+8.2ppWon
MKE Ankaragucu under 90.577.6%1.28
1xBet
1.28		----+8.2ppWon
MKE Ankaragucu under 88.571.4%1.38
1xBet
1.38		----+8.1ppWon
Darussafaka +9.572.8%1.34
1xBet
1.34		----+6.4ppWon
Darussafaka +10.575.7%1.28
1xBet
1.28		----+5.9ppWon
Overtime: no94.7%1.03
Betano
1.03		----+3.4ppWon
Darussafaka over 74.570.6%1.31
1xBet
1.31		----+3.1ppWon
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
MKE Ankaragucutheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

MKE Ankaragucu: 76.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀44%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers33.8 pts a game · 44% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.5 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.8 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.1 points a game
49%
33%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.316.9
49.3%
53.0%33.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.19.5
33.8%
33.0%28.5
🏀 Free throws19.513.8
70.8%
71.2%13.8
They take 62.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Darussafakatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Darussafaka: 74.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀29%
🏀23%
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.4 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.6 pts a game · 29% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.3 pts a game · 23% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.1 points a game
49%
33%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.717.7
46.9%
53.0%35.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.47.2
30.8%
33.0%21.6
🏀 Free throws25.117.3
68.9%
71.2%17.3
They take 61.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 14 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
MKE Ankaragucu
LLLWWWLLLL
Darussafaka
LWLLLLWWLL
#14
League position
#11
-13.2
Net rating
-10.1
89.8
Offensive rating
86.4
103.0
Defensive rating
96.5
49.9%
Effective FG%
46.6%
57.6%
Opp. effective FG%
53.2%
15.4%
Turnover %
14.4%
0.31
Free-throw rate
0.41
33.8%
3-point %
30.8%
64.8%
Assist %
62.7%
30%
Form (last 10/10)
30%

Profile

Offence89.8 · 86.4Defence103.0 · 96.5Shooting49.9% · 46.6%3-point %33.8% · 30.8%Ball care15.4% · 14.4%Free throws0.31 · 0.41Form (last 10/10)30% · 30%
■ MKE Ankaragucu   ■ Darussafaka
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
MKE Ankaragucu wins
1
Darussafaka wins
DateGameScore
28/02/26Darussafaka v MKE Ankaragucu102-92
08/11/25MKE Ankaragucu v Darussafaka79-73
MKE Ankaraguculast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/11/26AFenerbahce 278-82
31/10/26HGaziantep62-71
24/10/26AiLab Basketbol92-95
17/10/26HKonya BBSK93-88
10/10/26HGoztepe88-86
03/10/26HOGM Ormanspor91-84
26/09/26ABuyukcekmece77-89
19/09/26HMersin SK70-100
12/09/26AHarem Spor62-113
18/04/26HCayirova65-81
Darussafakalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
31/10/26AOGM Ormanspor90-92 OT
25/10/26HBuyukcekmece90-85
18/10/26AMersin SK82-95
11/10/26HHarem Spor47-79
07/10/26ACO Basket73-81
04/10/26HFinal Spor75-83
26/09/26AKecioren Baglum91-83
20/09/26HBalikesir67-65
12/09/26AAnkara Kolejliler69-88
22/04/26ACO Basket80-84

📊 11. Overall Statistics

MKE Ankaragucu
TBL 2026-27
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLL33%
HomeLWWWL60%
AwayLLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games954
Win %33%60%0%
Points / game79.280.877.2
Allowed / game89.885.894.8
Point differential-10.6-5.0-17.5
Avg total169.0166.6172.0
Over 164.578%80%75%
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (4)100% (2)0% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Darussafaka
TBL 2026-27
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLWL33%
HomeWLLW50%
AwayLWLLL20%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games945
Win %33%50%20%
Points / game76.069.881.0
Allowed / game83.478.087.8
Point differential-7.4-8.2-6.8
Avg total159.4147.8168.8
Over 164.544%25%60%
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (3)100% (2)0% (1)
Overtime %11%0%20%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Harem Spor108280%82.370.1+12.2
2 Goztepe108280%84.975.9+9.0
3 Kahramanmaras108280%83.074.5+8.5
4 Mersin SK108280%89.081.5+7.5
5 Gaziantep107370%80.776.3+4.4
6 Final Spor106460%80.978.7+2.2
7 Buyukcekmece95456%79.777.6+2.1
8 OGM Ormanspor105550%82.880.4+2.4
9 iLab Basketbol105550%84.185.0-0.9
10 Fenerbahce 294544%73.978.7-4.8
11 CO Basket114736%72.682.8-10.2
12 Darussafaka93633%76.083.4-7.4
13 MKE Ankaragucu93633%79.289.8-10.6
14 Balikesir103730%75.778.1-2.4
15 Ankara Kolejliler113827%73.580.3-6.8
16 Konya BBSK92722%80.284.9-4.7
17 Kecioren Baglum112918%87.488.6-1.3
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
MKE Ankaragucu3118211888
Darussafaka1529242694
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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