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Mrkonjic Grad vs Leotar Trebinje Prediction & Stats

Date: Sun 15 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 17:00
Projected 76-78
Projected total 153.7
Scheduled
Position#14
Record1-5
FormLWLLL
Points / game72.7
Allowed / game85.8
Vs
41%
59%
■ MRKO 41%■ LEOT 59%
Pythia win probability
Form · last 5 games
5.1/10
Around normal
4.9/10
Around normal
Position#5
Record4-2
FormWLWWL
Points / game69.7
Allowed / game71.7
Bosnia-and-HerzegovinaPrvenstvo BiHRound 7· Arena Komercijalne Banke
Other2026-27
Meetings · Mrkonjic Grad v Leotar Trebinje
15 Nov 2026
MRKO v LEOT
upcoming
18 Apr 2026
MRKO76
LEOT70
01 Mar 2025
MRKO80
LEOT78
26 Nov 2023
MRKO78
LEOT79
19 Mar 2023
MRKO76
LEOT81
13 Feb 2022
MRKO57
LEOT76
02 Dec 2020
MRKO72
LEOT77
09 Apr 2017
MRKO80
LEOT86
14 Jan 2017
MRKO75
LEOT70
13 Mar 2016
MRKO85
LEOT79
20 Dec 2015
MRKO83
LEOT71
08 Nov 2014
MRKO67
LEOT82
Sections
Game preview & prediction

Mrkonjic Grad will host Leotar Trebinje on 14 November 2026 in the Prvenstvo BiH, with the model favouring Leotar Trebinje at 59% to 41% for Mrkonjic Grad. Mrkonjic Grad has gone 1-5 this season, averaging 72.7 points and conceding 85.8, while Leotar Trebinje sits 6th with a 4-2 record, 69.7 points for and 71.7 against. At home Mrkonjic Grad is 1-2, 70.3 points for and 75.7 against, and in its last five it has won only once; the recent losses include 72-99 to Drina, 71-90 to Siroki Brijeg and 76-98 to Slavija. Leotar Trebinje on the road is 2-1, 71.3 points for and 73.3 against, and has won three of its last five, with a 70-68 win over Drina, a 81-75 victory over Borac Banja Luka and a 55-75 loss to Orlovik. Historically Leotar has won 7 of 10 encounters, though Mrkonjic Grad last beat them 76-70 on 18 April 2026. The model projects a 76-78 score, 153.8 total points, a 1.5-point spread with a 44% chance of Mrkonjic Grad covering, a 159.5 total line with a 36% over probability, and a 5% chance of overtime. The game will hinge on whether Leotar can maintain its recent road form against a struggling home side.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Mrkonjic Grad win
40.9%fair 2.44
Best odds2.30
Implied39.0%
Edge+1.9pp
Leotar Trebinje win
59.1%fair 1.69
Best odds1.57
Implied61.0%
Edge-1.9pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 14 Nov 07:03 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Mrkonjic GradBosnia-and-HerzegovinaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormGrad
Date
Competition
Orlovik
#6
W
79-75 OT
79
75
+4
48avg 64
A29/03
Prvenstvo BiH
Radnicki Gorazde
#15
L
61-68
61
68
-7
56avg 64
H05/04
Prvenstvo BiH
Promo
#12
W
87-83
87
83
+4
81avg 64
A11/04
Prvenstvo BiH
Leotar Trebinje
#8
W
76-70
76
70
+6
71avg 64
H18/04
Prvenstvo BiH
Basket Zivinice
#3
L
64-71
64
71
-7
50avg 64
H03/10
Prvenstvo BiH
Igman
#9
L
77-91
77
91
-14
63avg 64
A10/10
Prvenstvo BiH
Gradina Tesanj
#12
W
76-66
76
66
+10
69avg 64
H18/10
Prvenstvo BiH
Slavija
#8
L
76-98
76
98
-22
63avg 64
A24/10
Prvenstvo BiH
Siroki Brijeg
#1
L
71-90
71
90
-19
57avg 64
H28/10
Prvenstvo BiH
Drina
#10
L
72-99
72
99
-27
no box
A08/11
Prvenstvo BiH
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
29-12
14-15
9-19
14-20
24-15
15-13
12-19
10-21
18-18
23-21
17-24
29-20
16-21
16-13
18-17
26-19
12-12
22-19
19-22
11-18
14-27
15-25
16-16
32-23
20-16
15-19
18-17
23-14
30-27
14-31
13-23
19-17
16-15
19-30
9-30
27-15
20-18
24-29
11-21
17-31
155.0Avg total
73.9Scored
81.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (6)72.785.8158.5-13.217%
Season at home (3)70.375.7146.0-5.333%
Season away (3)75.096.0171.0-21.00%
Last 10 (10)73.981.1155.0-7.240%
Last 5 (5)74.488.8163.2-14.420%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (22)73.387.1160.4-13.823%
vs Similar (8)74.574.1148.6+0.450%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Leotar Trebinje) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Leotar TrebinjeBosnia-and-HerzegovinaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormTrebinje
Date
Competition
Promo
#12
L
96-98
96
98
-2
92avg 72
H21/03
Prvenstvo BiH
Slavija
#9
W
87-65
87
65
+22
86avg 72
H28/03
Prvenstvo BiH
Jahorina
#7
W
97-94 OT
97
94
+3
78avg 72
H11/04
Prvenstvo BiH
Mrkonjic Grad
#14
L
70-76
70
76
-6
57avg 72
A18/04
Prvenstvo BiH
Slavija
#8
W
85-75
85
75
+10
44avg 72
A03/10
Prvenstvo BiH
Promo
#11
W
68-60
68
60
+8
62avg 72
H10/10
Prvenstvo BiH
Siroki Brijeg
#1
L
59-77
59
77
-18
51avg 72
A19/10
Prvenstvo BiH
Borac Banja Luka
#7
W
81-75
81
75
+6
70avg 72
H25/10
Prvenstvo BiH
Drina
#10
W
70-68
70
68
+2
no box
A01/11
Prvenstvo BiH
Orlovik
#2
L
55-75
55
75
-20
no box
H08/11
Prvenstvo BiH
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
19-23
26-22
20-28
31-25
23-15
31-17
20-10
13-23
19-20
28-23
24-16
14-26
21-16
13-16
17-18
19-26
27-20
26-24
18-16
14-15
17-22
21-17
16-8
14-13
14-18
23-13
10-29
12-17
15-20
23-19
20-25
23-11
16-12
15-21
29-22
10-13
19-21
15-21
8-15
13-18
153.1Avg total
76.8Scored
76.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (6)69.771.7141.3-2.067%
Season at home (3)68.070.0138.0-2.067%
Season away (3)71.373.3144.7-2.067%
Last 10 (10)76.876.3153.1+0.560%
Last 5 (5)66.671.0137.6-4.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)69.284.7153.9-15.411%
vs Similar (11)85.180.2165.3+4.973%
vs Weaker ◀ (10)94.185.8179.9+8.350%
This opponent (Mrkonjic Grad) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 154.5
Over 154.5
47.3%
@ 1.81-1.0pp
Under 154.5
52.7%
@ 1.69+1.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.81
Under
1xBet
1.69
Over/Under 159.5 · main line
Over 159.5
35.6%
@ 1.85-14.4pp
Under 159.5
64.4%
@ 1.85+14.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.85
Under
1xBet
1.85
Over/Under 164.5
Over 164.5
25.3%
Under 164.5
74.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Mrkonjic Grad total 72.5
Over 72.5
61.3%
@ 1.46+1.9pp
Under 72.5
38.7%
@ 2.13-1.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.46
Under
1xBet
2.13
Mrkonjic Grad total 76.5 · main line
Over 76.5
46.0%
@ 1.89-1.9pp
Under 76.5
54.0%
@ 1.82+1.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.89
Betano
1.82
Under
Betano
1.82
1xBet
1.59
Mrkonjic Grad total 80.5
Over 80.5
31.4%
@ 2.42-4.8pp
Under 80.5
68.6%
@ 1.37+4.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.42
Under
1xBet
1.37
Leotar Trebinje total 73
Over 73
69.8%
Under 73
30.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leotar Trebinje total 77 · main line
Over 77
54.5%
@ 1.70+3.9pp
Under 77
45.5%
@ 1.74-3.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.70
Under
1xBet
1.74
Leotar Trebinje total 81
Over 81
38.4%
Under 81
61.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Mrkonjic Grad +0.5
MRKO +0.5
40.9%
LEOT -0.5
59.1%
Best 5 market prices
MRKO
No market prices yet.
LEOT
No market prices yet.
Spread Mrkonjic Grad +3.5 · main line
MRKO +3.5
51.5%
@ 1.80+0.9pp
LEOT -3.5
48.5%
@ 1.88-0.9pp
Best 5 market prices
MRKO
BetVictor
1.80
1xBet
1.78
LEOT
BetVictor
1.88
1xBet
1.80
Spread Mrkonjic Grad +6.5
MRKO +6.5
62.9%
@ 1.45+1.8pp
LEOT -6.5
37.1%
@ 2.27-1.8pp
Best 5 market prices
MRKO
1xBet
1.45
LEOT
1xBet
2.27

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +1.8+1.8Q1: +0.3+0.3Q2Q2: -3.8-3.8Q2: +2.8+2.8Q3Q3: -6.6-6.6Q3: -0.5-0.5Q4Q4: +1.0+1.0Q4: -2.4-2.4
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +1.8+1.8Q1: +0.3+0.3Q2Q2: -3.8-3.8Q2: +2.8+2.8Q3Q3: -6.6-6.6Q3: -0.5-0.5Q4Q4: +1.0+1.0Q4: -2.4-2.4
Mrkonjic GradLeotar Trebinje
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Mrkonjic GradLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Orlovik
#6
W
43-27
43
27
+16
A29/03
Prvenstvo BiH
Radnicki Gorazde
#15
W
39-28
39
28
+11
H05/04
Prvenstvo BiH
Promo
#12
W
41-39
41
39
+2
A11/04
Prvenstvo BiH
Leotar Trebinje
#8
L
32-34
32
34
-2
H18/04
Prvenstvo BiH
Basket Zivinice
#3
W
34-31
34
31
+3
H03/10
Prvenstvo BiH
Igman
#9
L
29-52
29
52
-23
A10/10
Prvenstvo BiH
Gradina Tesanj
#12
D
35-35
35
35
+0
H18/10
Prvenstvo BiH
Slavija
#8
L
44-58
44
58
-14
A24/10
Prvenstvo BiH
Siroki Brijeg
#1
L
35-45
35
45
-10
H28/10
Prvenstvo BiH
Drina
#10
L
44-47
44
47
-3
A08/11
Prvenstvo BiH
77.2Avg total
37.6Scored
39.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 78
Last 30 (30)37.241.979.1-4.733%53%
Last 30 at home (15)36.137.974.0-1.740%40%
Last 30 away (15)38.245.984.1-7.727%67%
Last 10 (10)37.639.677.2-2.040%50%
Last 5 (5)37.447.484.8-10.00%80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (22)36.644.180.8-7.523%59%
vs Similar (8)38.635.874.4+2.962%38%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Leotar Trebinje) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Leotar TrebinjeLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Promo
#12
D
45-45
45
45
+0
H21/03
Prvenstvo BiH
Slavija
#9
W
54-32
54
32
+22
H28/03
Prvenstvo BiH
Jahorina
#7
W
47-43
47
43
+4
H11/04
Prvenstvo BiH
Mrkonjic Grad
#14
W
34-32
34
32
+2
A18/04
Prvenstvo BiH
Slavija
#8
W
53-44
53
44
+9
A03/10
Prvenstvo BiH
Promo
#11
L
38-39
38
39
-1
H10/10
Prvenstvo BiH
Siroki Brijeg
#1
W
37-31
37
31
+6
A19/10
Prvenstvo BiH
Borac Banja Luka
#7
L
38-39
38
39
-1
H25/10
Prvenstvo BiH
Drina
#10
L
31-33
31
33
-2
A01/11
Prvenstvo BiH
Orlovik
#2
L
34-42
34
42
-8
H08/11
Prvenstvo BiH
79.1Avg total
41.1Scored
38.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 78
Last 30 (30)42.540.683.1+1.847%67%
Last 30 at home (15)43.739.983.6+3.953%67%
Last 30 away (15)41.241.482.6-0.240%67%
Last 10 (10)41.138.079.1+3.150%40%
Last 5 (5)35.636.872.4-1.220%0%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)37.941.179.0-3.222%56%
vs Similar (11)44.441.185.5+3.355%73%
vs Weaker ◀ (10)44.539.784.2+4.860%70%
This opponent (Mrkonjic Grad) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winner
MRKO win
no forecast
@ 2.13
LEOT win
no forecast
@ 1.65
1st half Spread Mrkonjic Grad +1.5 · main line
MRKO +1.5
no forecast
@ 1.83
LEOT -1.5
no forecast
@ 1.88
1st half Over/Under 78 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.83
Under
no forecast
@ 1.77
1st half 3-way (draw possible)
MRKO
no forecast
@ 2.22
Draw
no forecast
@ 15.00
LEOT
no forecast
@ 1.72

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
MRKO win + total 155.5
🔒 Pro
LEOT win + total 155.5
🔒 Pro
Overtime
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: MRKO leads at half
🔒 Pro
🔒 4 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Free readers see five, one market at a time (moneyline, spread, total ...); Pro sees every selection and can filter by Min odds and Edge. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds PRO1.20
Edge PRO
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Mrkonjic Grad under 81.571.9%1.39
1xBet
1.39
----+8.9pp
■■■■■■ ■■■■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%
🔒 1 more picks for this game · Unlock all Best Picks & everything else with Pro
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Mrkonjic Gradtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Mrkonjic Grad: 73.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀54%
🏀🏀🏀28%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.4 pts a game · 54% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers20.7 pts a game · 28% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.1 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 75.4 points a game
51%
31%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.219.7
51.6%
53.9%39.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.46.9
28.3%
32.9%20.7
🏀 Free throws19.313.1
67.9%
67.4%13.1
They take 62.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Leotar Trebinjetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Leotar Trebinje: 74.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀59%
🏀🏀🏀23%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.6 pts a game · 59% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers17.4 pts a game · 23% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.3 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 75.4 points a game
51%
31%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.221.8
52.9%
53.9%43.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.55.8
27.0%
32.9%17.4
🏀 Free throws18.213.3
73.1%
67.4%13.3
They take 62.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 21.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 34% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 15 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Mrkonjic Grad
LLLWLLWWLW
Leotar Trebinje
LWWLWWLWWL
#14
League position
#5
-6.1
Net rating
-1.2
86.3
Offensive rating
90.3
92.4
Defensive rating
91.5
48.0%
Effective FG%
48.6%
49.9%
Opp. effective FG%
54.4%
14.1%
Turnover %
16.2%
0.31
Free-throw rate
0.29
28.3%
3-point %
27.0%
52.6%
Assist %
46.7%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence86.3 · 90.3Defence92.4 · 91.5Shooting48.0% · 48.6%3-point %28.3% · 27.0%Ball care14.1% · 16.2%Free throws0.31 · 0.29Form (last 10/10)40% · 60%
■ Mrkonjic Grad   ■ Leotar Trebinje
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Mrkonjic Grad wins
7
Leotar Trebinje wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/11/26ADrina72-99
28/10/26HSiroki Brijeg71-90
24/10/26ASlavija76-98
18/10/26HGradina Tesanj76-66
10/10/26AIgman77-91
03/10/26HBasket Zivinice64-71
18/04/26HLeotar Trebinje76-70
11/04/26APromo87-83
05/04/26HRadnicki Gorazde61-68
29/03/26AOrlovik79-75 OT
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/11/26HOrlovik55-75
01/11/26ADrina70-68
25/10/26HBorac Banja Luka81-75
19/10/26ASiroki Brijeg59-77
10/10/26HPromo68-60
03/10/26ASlavija85-75
18/04/26AMrkonjic Grad70-76
11/04/26HJahorina97-94 OT
28/03/26HSlavija87-65
21/03/26HPromo96-98

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Mrkonjic Grad
Prvenstvo BiH 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLL17%
HomeLWL33%
AwayLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games633
Win %17%33%0%
Points / game72.770.375.0
Allowed / game85.875.796.0
Point differential-13.2-5.3-21.0
Avg total158.5146.0171.0
Over 159.567%33%100%
Win by 10+17%33%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
Leotar Trebinje
Prvenstvo BiH 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWL67%
HomeWWL67%
AwayWLW67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games633
Win %67%67%67%
Points / game69.768.071.3
Allowed / game71.770.073.3
Point differential-2.0-2.0-2.0
Avg total141.3138.0144.7
Over 159.517%0%33%
Win by 10+17%0%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)-100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Siroki Brijeg54180%85.272.4+12.8
2 Orlovik75271%81.676.9+4.7
3 Basket Zivinice75271%74.973.0+1.9
4 Sloboda64267%87.076.0+11.0
5 Leotar Trebinje64267%69.771.7-2.0
6 Zrinjski Mostar74357%78.974.4+4.4
7 Borac Banja Luka74357%80.075.9+4.1
8 Slavija74357%84.682.6+2.0
9 Igman74357%86.785.9+0.9
10 Drina72529%75.481.0-5.6
11 Promo72529%70.175.9-5.7
12 Gradina Tesanj72529%72.780.3-7.6
13 Radnicki Gorazde61517%81.887.3-5.5
14 Mrkonjic Grad61517%72.785.8-13.2
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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