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N. Carolina A&T vs Morgan State Prediction & Stats

Date: Thu 19 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 00:00
Projected 82-71
Projected total 152.6
Scheduled
Position#255
Record1-2
FormLLWLL
Points / game76.3
Allowed / game68.3
N. Carolina A&T
USA
Vs
84%
16%
■ N. C 84%■ MORG 16%
Pythia win probability
Morgan State
USA
Position#104
Record3-1
FormLWWWL
Points / game85.2
Allowed / game65.5
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Meetings · N. Carolina A&T v Morgan State
18 Nov 2026
N. C v MORG
upcoming
20 Nov 2024
N. C86
MORG83
Sections
Game preview & prediction

N. Carolina A&T will host Morgan State on 18 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names the Aggies the clear favourite with an 84% chance of victory, driven by their 1-2 record and 76.3 points per game against 68.3 allowed, while Morgan State sits 3-1 with 85.2 points per game and 65.5 allowed. N. Carolina A&T's single home game, a 92-53 win over Warren Wilson, shows a 92.0 points per game and 53.0 allowed, whereas Morgan State's two road outings yielded 71.5 points per game and 76.0 allowed. The Aggies' last five games were 1-4, including losses to East Carolina 67-72 and Ohio 70-80, and a win over Warren Wilson 92-53; Morgan State's last five were 3-2, with a loss to UMBC 70-85, a win over Niagara 73-67, and a home win over Virginia-Lynchburg 95-58. In their three previous meetings, N. Carolina A&T has won all, most recently 79-73 on 18 November 2025. Pythia projects a score of 82-71, a total of 152.6 points, and a 3% chance of overtime. The home team is expected to cover the spread, and the over is unlikely.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

N. Carolina A&T win
84.2%fair 1.19
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Morgan State win
15.8%fair 6.34
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 09 Nov 09:11 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

N. Carolina A&TUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Hampton
#276
W
71-70
71
70
+1
H14/02
NCAA
Charleston
#80
L
61-74
61
74
-13
H20/02
NCAA
Elon
#256
W
102-82
102
82
+20
A22/02
NCAA
NC Wilmington
#17
L
65-88
65
88
-23
A27/02
NCAA
William & Mary
#100
L
88-91
88
91
-3
H28/02
NCAA
Campbell
#222
L
72-90
72
90
-18
A04/03
NCAA
Northeastern
#358
L
72-88
72
88
-16
H06/03
NCAA
Warren Wilson
#444
W
92-53
92
53
+39
H04/11
NCAA
Ohio
#91
L
70-80
70
80
-10
A07/11
NCAA
East Carolina
#180
L
67-72
67
72
-5
A11/11
NCAA
1H
2H
26-30
45-40
26-41
35-33
53-41
49-41
26-44
39-44
37-46
51-45
35-45
37-45
24-40
48-48
41-26
51-27
31-38
39-42
28-35
39-37
154.8Avg total
76.0Scored
78.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)76.368.3144.7+8.033%
Season at home (1)92.053.0145.0+39.0100%
Season away (2)68.576.0144.5-7.50%
Last 10 (10)76.078.8154.8-2.830%
Last 5 (5)74.676.6151.2-2.020%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (13)74.583.2157.7-8.615%
vs Similar (15)71.974.3146.3-2.440%
vs Weaker (1)95.055.0150.0+40.0100%
This opponent (Morgan State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Morgan StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Delaware State
#353
W
82-68
82
68
+14
H21/02
NCAA
South Carolina St
#336
W
90-83
90
83
+7
A25/02
NCAA
Howard
#55
L
59-84
59
84
-25
H28/02
NCAA
Norfolk State
#233
W
90-84
90
84
+6
H02/03
NCAA
Coppin State
#354
W
70-66
70
66
+4
H06/03
NCAA
Delaware State
#353
L
70-75 OT
70
75
-5
H11/03
NCAA
Cheyney Wolves
#438
W
103-52
103
52
+51
H03/11
NCAA
Virginia-Lynchburg
#488
W
95-58
95
58
+37
H05/11
NCAA
Niagara
#378
W
73-67
73
67
+6
A07/11
NCAA
UMBC Retrievers
#217
L
70-85
70
85
-15
A12/11
NCAA
1H
2H
34-33
48-35
42-40
48-43
22-30
37-54
45-29
45-55
34-32
36-34
15-27
45-33
50-25
53-27
47-26
48-32
42-34
31-33
39-42
31-43
152.4Avg total
80.2Scored
72.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)85.265.5150.8+19.875%
Season at home (2)99.055.0154.0+44.0100%
Season away (2)71.576.0147.5-4.550%
Last 10 (10)80.272.2152.4+8.070%
Last 5 (5)82.267.4149.6+14.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)69.585.1154.6-15.638%
vs Similar (8)65.879.5145.2-13.812%
vs Weaker ◀ (14)85.468.6154.0+16.786%
This opponent (N. Carolina A&T) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 147
Over 147
63.2%
Under 147
36.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 152
Over 152
50.9%
Under 152
49.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 157
Over 157
38.6%
Under 157
61.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

N. Carolina A&T total 80.5
Over 80.5
56.0%
Under 80.5
44.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
N. Carolina A&T total 84.5
Over 84.5
40.0%
Under 84.5
60.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
N. Carolina A&T total 88.5
Over 88.5
25.6%
Under 88.5
74.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morgan State total 64
Over 64
74.5%
Under 64
25.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morgan State total 68
Over 68
59.8%
Under 68
40.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morgan State total 72
Over 72
43.5%
Under 72
56.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread N. Carolina A&T -3
N. C -3
78.9%
MORG +3
21.1%
Best 5 market prices
N. C
No market prices yet.
MORG
No market prices yet.
Spread N. Carolina A&T 0
N. C 0
84.2%
MORG 0
15.8%
Best 5 market prices
N. C
No market prices yet.
MORG
No market prices yet.
Spread N. Carolina A&T +3
N. C +3
89.1%
MORG -3
10.9%
Best 5 market prices
N. C
No market prices yet.
MORG
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-7-4+0+4+71st half1st half: -5.9-5.91st half: +5.2+5.22nd half2nd half: +3.1+3.12nd half: +3.3+3.3
-7-4+0+4+71st half1st half: -5.9-5.91st half: +5.2+5.22nd half2nd half: +3.1+3.12nd half: +3.3+3.3
N. Carolina A&TMorgan State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
N. Carolina A&TLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Hampton
#276
L
26-30
26
30
-4
H14/02
NCAA
Charleston
#80
L
26-41
26
41
-15
H20/02
NCAA
Elon
#256
W
53-41
53
41
+12
A22/02
NCAA
NC Wilmington
#17
L
26-44
26
44
-18
A27/02
NCAA
William & Mary
#100
L
37-46
37
46
-9
H28/02
NCAA
Campbell
#222
L
35-45
35
45
-10
A04/03
NCAA
Northeastern
#358
L
24-40
24
40
-16
H06/03
NCAA
Warren Wilson
#444
W
41-26
41
26
+15
H04/11
NCAA
Ohio
#91
L
31-38
31
38
-7
A07/11
NCAA
East Carolina
#180
L
28-35
28
35
-7
A11/11
NCAA
71.3Avg total
32.7Scored
38.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)34.538.773.2-4.223%-
Last 30 at home (13)35.038.173.1-3.123%-
Last 30 away (17)34.139.273.3-5.124%-
Last 10 (10)32.738.671.3-5.920%-
Last 5 (5)31.836.868.6-5.020%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (13)35.742.478.1-6.715%-
vs Similar (15)32.437.169.5-4.720%-
vs Weaker (1)44.027.071.0+17.0100%-
This opponent (Morgan State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Morgan StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Delaware State
#353
W
34-33
34
33
+1
H21/02
NCAA
South Carolina St
#336
W
42-40
42
40
+2
A25/02
NCAA
Howard
#55
L
22-30
22
30
-8
H28/02
NCAA
Norfolk State
#233
W
45-29
45
29
+16
H02/03
NCAA
Coppin State
#354
W
34-32
34
32
+2
H06/03
NCAA
Delaware State
#353
L
15-27
15
27
-12
H11/03
NCAA
Cheyney Wolves
#438
W
50-25
50
25
+25
H03/11
NCAA
Virginia-Lynchburg
#488
W
47-26
47
26
+21
H05/11
NCAA
Niagara
#378
W
42-34
42
34
+8
A07/11
NCAA
UMBC Retrievers
#217
L
39-42
39
42
-3
A12/11
NCAA
68.8Avg total
37.0Scored
31.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)35.336.772.0-1.343%-
Last 30 at home (16)37.732.570.2+5.256%-
Last 30 away (14)32.641.474.1-8.829%-
Last 10 (10)37.031.868.8+5.270%-
Last 5 (5)38.630.869.4+7.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)31.139.670.8-8.512%-
vs Similar (8)29.841.271.0-11.512%-
vs Weaker ◀ (14)40.932.473.3+8.679%-
This opponent (N. Carolina A&T) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
N. Carolina A&T wins
0
Morgan State wins
DateGameScore
19/11/25Morgan State v N. Carolina A&T73-79
21/11/24N. Carolina A&T v Morgan State86-83
21/01/20Morgan State v N. Carolina A&T70-76
N. Carolina A&Tlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/11/26AEast Carolina67-72
07/11/26AOhio70-80
04/11/26HWarren Wilson92-53
06/03/26HNortheastern72-88
04/03/26ACampbell72-90
28/02/26HWilliam & Mary88-91
27/02/26ANC Wilmington65-88
22/02/26AElon102-82
20/02/26HCharleston61-74
14/02/26HHampton71-70
Morgan Statelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/26AUMBC Retrievers70-85
07/11/26ANiagara73-67
05/11/26HVirginia-Lynchburg95-58
03/11/26HCheyney Wolves103-52
11/03/26HDelaware State70-75 OT
06/03/26HCoppin State70-66
02/03/26HNorfolk State90-84
28/02/26HHoward59-84
25/02/26ASouth Carolina St90-83
21/02/26HDelaware State82-68

📊 11. Overall Statistics

N. Carolina A&T
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLL33%
HomeW100%
AwayLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games312
Win %33%100%0%
Points / game76.392.068.5
Allowed / game68.353.076.0
Point differential+8.0+39.0-7.5
Avg total144.7145.0144.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)-0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Morgan State
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWL75%
HomeWW100%
AwayWL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games422
Win %75%100%50%
Points / game85.299.071.5
Allowed / game65.555.076.0
Point differential+19.8+44.0-4.5
Avg total150.8154.0147.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Coastal Athletic Association conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Charleston330100%104.767.3+37.3
2 NC Wilmington330100%90.071.0+19.0
3 William & Mary32167%91.378.0+13.3
4 Elon32167%69.368.3+1.0
5 Towson42250%70.865.5+5.2
6 Stony Brook31233%73.764.7+9.0
7 N. Carolina A&T31233%76.368.3+8.0
8 Hofstra31233%72.765.3+7.3
9 Hampton31233%61.068.7-7.7
10 Drexel31233%67.076.3-9.3
11 Northeastern31233%77.086.7-9.7
12 Monmouth41325%61.079.2-18.2
13 Campbell3030%62.779.3-16.7
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Mid-Eastern Athletic conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Morgan State43175%85.265.5+19.8
2 South Carolina St43175%78.272.8+5.5
3 Howard42250%74.073.8+0.2
4 Norfolk State42250%69.872.8-3.0
5 Delaware State31233%74.767.0+7.7
6 Coppin State41325%62.266.2-4.0
7 Md.-East. Shore51420%58.670.0-11.4
8 N. Carolina Central3030%62.774.3-11.7
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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