NC Wilmington hosts Kent State on 11 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names the home team as the clear favourite, rating them 87% to win because of a perfect 2-0 record, 89.5 points scored and 70.0 points allowed per game, and a league position of 77. Kent State, meanwhile, sits 188th with a 1-1 record, 88.5 points scored and 67.5 points allowed per game, and has struggled on the road, going 0-1 in its sole away game with 75.0 points scored and 85.0 points allowed. NC Wilmington's single home game was a 101-65 win, and their last five games include two wins and two losses, with a recent 78-75 victory over East Carolina and a 101-65 home win over Mount Olive. Kent State's last five games also contain two wins and two losses, with a 102-50 home win over Roberts Wesleyan and a 75-85 loss to Louisiana Tech away. The only prior meeting saw Kent State win 86-77 on 10 November 2025. Pythia projects an 83-70 score, 152.4 total points, and gives the home team a 74% chance to cover the -5.5 line; the over on 153.5 points has a 47% probability, and the game has a 3% chance of overtime. The next contest will see NC Wilmington try to extend its winning streak against a Kent State squad that has yet to beat them at home.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
NC Wilmington winWon
86.7%fair 1.15
Best odds1.29
Implied74.7%
Edge+12.0pp
Kent State winLost
13.3%fair 7.51
Best odds4.10
Implied25.3%
Edge-12.0pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 10 Nov 07:00 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
NC WilmingtonLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Elon
#256
W
33-24
33
24
+9
H13/02
NCAA
Hofstra
#54
W
34-32
34
32
+2
H14/02
NCAA
Monmouth
#159
W
36-31
36
31
+5
H20/02
NCAA
Campbell
#222
W
36-35
36
35
+1
A21/02
NCAA
N. Carolina A&T
#299
W
44-26
44
26
+18
H27/02
NCAA
Charleston
#80
W
35-23
35
23
+12
H02/03
NCAA
Elon
#256
W
35-24
35
24
+11
A04/03
NCAA
Campbell
#222
W
33-31
33
31
+2
H08/03
NCAA
Mount Olive Trojans
#429
W
36-27
36
27
+9
H03/11
NCAA
East Carolina
#180
L
31-33
31
33
-2
A07/11
NCAA
63.9Avg total
35.3Scored
28.6Allowed
1st half
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the half
Over 74.5
Last 30 (30)
35.5
32.0
67.4
+3.5
73%
20%
Last 30 at home (17)
35.8
28.5
64.3
+7.2
82%
12%
Last 30 away (13)
35.1
36.5
71.5
-1.4
62%
31%
Last 10 (10)
35.3
28.6
63.9
+6.7
90%
0%
Last 5 (5)
34.0
27.6
61.6
+6.4
80%
0%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger
no games
vs Similar (5)
35.8
34.4
70.2
+1.4
60%
20%
vs Weaker ◀ (24)
35.4
31.7
67.0
+3.7
75%
21%
This opponent (Kent State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Kent State under 76.5
74.6%
1.72
Pinnacle
1.81
Betano
1.62
-
-
-
+22.5pp
Won
Kent State under 75.5
71.5%
1.81
Pinnacle
1.91
WilliamHill
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Betano
1.75
-
+21.8pp
Won
Kent State under 75
70.5%
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.84
-
-
-
+20.3pp
Won
NC Wilmington -5
76.7%
1.71
Marathon Bet
1.79
SBO
1.78
Pinnacle
1.68
Bet365
1.60
-
+19.8pp
Won
NC Wilmington -5.5
74.4%
1.71
BetVictor
1.80
SBO
1.78
1xBet
1.75
Pinnacle
1.74
Marathon Bet
1.70
+19.4pp
Won
NC Wilmington +1
87.8%
1.35
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
-
+18.9pp
Won
NC Wilmington -4.5
77.4%
1.61
Marathon Bet
1.73
1xBet
1.67
Bet365
1.57
Betano
1.47
-
+18.5pp
Won
NC Wilmington +3.5
91.1%
1.28
Betano
1.28
-
-
-
-
+18.4pp
Won
NC Wilmington -4
79.6%
1.52
Bet365
1.52
-
-
-
-
+18.4pp
Won
Kent State under 77.5
77.6%
1.51
1xBet
1.57
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.45
-
-
+17.9pp
Won
NC Wilmington -3
82.0%
1.45
Bet365
1.45
-
-
-
-
+17.8pp
Won
NC Wilmington -3.5
80.2%
1.52
1xBet
1.67
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.39
-
-
+17.7pp
Won
NC Wilmington -2
84.7%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+17.7pp
Won
NC Wilmington +2
89.6%
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
-
+17.6pp
Won
Kent State under 78.5
80.4%
1.44
Betano
1.44
-
-
-
-
+17.4pp
Won
NC Wilmington +1.5
88.0%
1.31
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.28
-
-
-
+16.8pp
Won
NC Wilmington -1
86.5%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+16.5pp
Won
NC Wilmington +2.5
89.8%
1.25
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
+15.7pp
Won
NC Wilmington -1.5
85.1%
1.32
Bet365
1.36
Betano
1.28
-
-
-
+15.0pp
Won
NC Wilmington -2.5
82.4%
1.37
Bet365
1.41
Betano
1.33
-
-
-
+14.9pp
Won
NC Wilmington (regulation)
85.0%
1.32
1xBet
1.41
Marathon Bet
1.28
Betano
1.27
-
-
+14.7pp
Won
Kent State under 79.5
82.9%
1.33
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
+14.1pp
Won
Kent State under 80.5
85.1%
1.30
1xBet
1.30
-
-
-
-
+14.0pp
Won
NC Wilmington -7
70.4%
1.79
SBO
1.88
Marathon Bet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Pinnacle
1.67
-
+13.1pp
Won
NC Wilmington -6
73.6%
1.72
SBO
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.76
Bet365
1.68
Pinnacle
1.57
-
+12.8pp
Won
NC Wilmington -6.5
71.3%
1.73
SBO
1.81
1xBet
1.80
BetVictor
1.75
Marathon Bet
1.74
Bet365
1.74
+12.2pp
Won
NC Wilmington win
86.7%
1.25
Pinnacle
1.29
Marathon Bet
1.27
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.25
BetVictor
1.24
+12.0pp
Won
Under 161.5
71.4%
1.50
Betano
1.60
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
+9.4pp
Lost
Under 162.5
73.4%
1.44
Betano
1.53
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
+8.8pp
Lost
NC Wilmington +7.5
95.3%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
+8.6pp
Won
Under 163.5
75.4%
1.39
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
+8.6pp
Lost
Under 165.5
79.0%
1.31
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
+8.3pp
Won
NC Wilmington over 75.5
76.2%
1.32
Betano
1.32
-
-
-
-
+7.7pp
Won
Under 164.5
77.3%
1.33
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
+7.5pp
Won
NC Wilmington +12.5
97.9%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+7.2pp
Won
Overtime: no
97.2%
1.03
WilliamHill
1.04
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
+6.0pp
-
Under 162
72.9%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+5.9pp
Lost
Under 161
70.8%
1.43
Bet365
1.43
-
-
-
-
+5.8pp
Lost
NC Wilmington over 76.5
73.0%
1.36
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
+5.5pp
Won
Under 163
74.9%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+5.4pp
Lost
NC Wilmington over 72.5
84.4%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
+4.9pp
Won
NC Wilmington over 71.5
86.7%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
+4.4pp
Won
Under 180.5
95.5%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.3pp
Won
NC Wilmington under 89.5
75.8%
1.29
1xBet
1.29
-
-
-
-
+4.2pp
Lost
Under 179.5
94.9%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.8pp
Won
NC Wilmington over 70.5
88.7%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+3.7pp
Won
NC Wilmington under 100.5
96.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.6pp
Won
Under 170.5
86.6%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
+3.5pp
Won
NC Wilmington under 98.5
94.5%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.4pp
Won
Under 175.5
92.0%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+3.3pp
Won
Under 174.5
91.1%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+2.4pp
Won
NC Wilmington under 96.5
91.9%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+2.3pp
Won
Under 169.5
85.3%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
+2.2pp
Won
NC Wilmington under 92.5
84.2%
1.12
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
+1.3pp
Won
NC Wilmington under 88.5
72.5%
1.29
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
+1.1pp
Lost
NC Wilmington under 94.5
88.5%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+1.0pp
Won
NC Wilmington over 74.5
79.2%
1.21
Betano
1.32
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.12
-
-
+0.3pp
Won
Over 129.5
92.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-0.2pp
Won
NC Wilmington under 91.5
81.6%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
-0.7pp
Won
NC Wilmington under 90.5
78.8%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
-0.7pp
Lost
Over 130.5
91.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-1.1pp
Won
Over 134.5
86.4%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-3.0pp
Won
Kent State over 57.5
88.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-3.4pp
Won
Over 135.5
85.0%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-4.4pp
Won
Kent State over 59.5
84.6%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-5.9pp
Won
Over 139.5
78.5%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-5.9pp
Won
Kent State +22.5
80.7%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-7.6pp
Won
Over 140.5
76.6%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-7.8pp
Won
Kent State over 61.5
79.4%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-8.9pp
Won
Kent State over 63.5
73.2%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-12.3pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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