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Norfolk State vs NC Wilmington Prediction & Stats

Date: Sat 21 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 23:00
Projected 73-75
Projected total 147.8
Scheduled
Position#271
Record2-3
FormWWLLL
Points / game66.4
Allowed / game73.8
Vs
43%
57%
■ NORF 43%■ NC W 57%
Pythia win probability
Position#17
Record4-0
FormLWWWW
Points / game92.5
Allowed / game63.5
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Meetings · Norfolk State v NC Wilmington
21 Nov 2026
NORF v NC W
upcoming
18 Dec 2020
NORF72
NC W80
Sections
Game preview & prediction
Norfolk State host NC Wilmington in the NCAA. Pythia makes NC Wilmington the favourite at 57% and projects 73-75, about 148 points in all. Overtime chance: 5%. Norfolk State are 2-3 this season (66.4 scored, 73.8 allowed a game), form WWLLL; NC Wilmington are 4-0 this season (92.5 scored, 63.5 allowed a game), form LWWWW.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Norfolk State win
43.5%fair 2.30
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
NC Wilmington win
56.5%fair 1.77
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 21:00 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Norfolk StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
South Carolina St
#336
W
90-71
90
71
+19
H21/02
NCAA
Coppin State
#354
W
75-69
75
69
+6
A28/02
NCAA
Morgan State
#244
L
84-90
84
90
-6
A02/03
NCAA
Howard
#55
L
76-84
76
84
-8
H06/03
NCAA
South Carolina St
#336
L
82-88
82
88
-6
H12/03
NCAA
Regent University
#428
W
68-45
68
45
+23
H03/11
NCAA
Randolph
#351
W
78-71
78
71
+7
H05/11
NCAA
William & Mary
#233
L
73-104
73
104
-31
A08/11
NCAA
Old Dominion
#56
L
60-71
60
71
-11
H12/11
NCAA
Georgia State
#252
L
53-78
53
78
-25
A15/11
NCAA
1H
2H
44-35
46-36
42-29
33-40
29-45
55-45
39-39
37-45
30-39
52-49
35-15
33-30
35-34
43-37
35-54
38-50
24-36
36-35
–
–
151.0Avg total
73.9Scored
77.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)66.473.8140.2-7.440%
Season at home (3)68.762.3131.0+6.367%
Season away (2)63.091.0154.0-28.00%
Last 10 (10)73.977.1151.0-3.240%
Last 5 (5)66.473.8140.2-7.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (7)64.787.4152.1-22.70%
vs Similar (3)67.381.7149.0-14.30%
vs Weaker (19)80.170.8150.9+9.368%
This opponent (NC Wilmington) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
NC WilmingtonUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Monmouth
#159
W
79-69
79
69
+10
H20/02
NCAA
Campbell
#222
W
73-68
73
68
+5
A21/02
NCAA
N. Carolina A&T
#299
W
88-65
88
65
+23
H27/02
NCAA
Charleston
#80
L
76-79
76
79
-3
H02/03
NCAA
Elon
#256
W
76-57
76
57
+19
A04/03
NCAA
Campbell
#222
L
70-85
70
85
-15
H08/03
NCAA
Mount Olive Trojans
#435
W
101-65
101
65
+36
H03/11
NCAA
East Carolina
#123
W
78-75
78
75
+3
A07/11
NCAA
Kent State
#278
W
91-73
91
73
+18
H12/11
NCAA
Montreat College
#518
W
100-41
100
41
+59
H14/11
NCAA
1H
2H
36-31
43-38
36-35
37-33
44-26
44-39
35-23
41-56
35-24
41-33
33-31
37-54
36-27
65-38
31-33
47-42
49-30
42-43
57-26
43-15
150.9Avg total
83.2Scored
67.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)92.563.5156.0+29.0100%
Season at home (3)97.359.7157.0+37.7100%
Season away (1)78.075.0153.0+3.0100%
Last 10 (10)83.267.7150.9+15.580%
Last 5 (5)88.067.8155.8+20.280%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (5)74.270.4144.6+3.840%
vs Weaker ◀ (23)77.067.3144.3+9.791%
This opponent (Norfolk State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 146
Over 146
53.6%
Under 146
46.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 151
Over 151
41.3%
Under 151
58.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 156
Over 156
30.0%
Under 156
70.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Norfolk State total 80.5
Over 80.5
23.2%
Under 80.5
76.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Norfolk State total 84.5
Over 84.5
13.3%
Under 84.5
86.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Norfolk State total 88.5
Over 88.5
6.8%
Under 88.5
93.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NC Wilmington total 62
Over 62
90.1%
Under 62
9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NC Wilmington total 66
Over 66
81.2%
Under 66
18.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NC Wilmington total 70
Over 70
68.6%
Under 70
31.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Norfolk State -3
NORF -3
34.5%
NC W +3
65.5%
Best 5 market prices
NORF
No market prices yet.
NC W
No market prices yet.
Spread Norfolk State 0
NORF 0
43.5%
NC W 0
56.5%
Best 5 market prices
NORF
No market prices yet.
NC W
No market prices yet.
Spread Norfolk State +3
NORF +3
52.5%
NC W -3
47.5%
Best 5 market prices
NORF
No market prices yet.
NC W
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-13-7+0+7+131st half1st half: -1.4-1.41st half: +10.6+10.62nd half2nd half: +0.7+0.72nd half: +4.9+4.9
-13-7+0+7+131st half1st half: -1.4-1.41st half: +10.6+10.62nd half2nd half: +0.7+0.72nd half: +4.9+4.9
Norfolk StateNC Wilmington
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Norfolk StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
South Carolina St
#336
W
44-35
44
35
+9
H21/02
NCAA
Coppin State
#354
W
42-29
42
29
+13
A28/02
NCAA
Morgan State
#244
L
29-45
29
45
-16
A02/03
NCAA
Howard
#55
D
39-39
39
39
+0
H06/03
NCAA
South Carolina St
#336
L
30-39
30
39
-9
H12/03
NCAA
Regent University
#428
W
35-15
35
15
+20
H03/11
NCAA
Randolph
#351
W
35-34
35
34
+1
H05/11
NCAA
William & Mary
#233
L
35-54
35
54
-19
A08/11
NCAA
Old Dominion
#56
L
24-36
24
36
-12
H12/11
NCAA
71.0Avg total
34.8Scored
36.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (29)35.536.071.5-0.648%-
Last 30 at home (14)38.434.472.8+4.164%-
Last 30 away (15)32.737.670.3-4.933%-
Last 10 (9)34.836.271.0-1.444%-
Last 5 (5)31.835.667.4-3.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)30.544.074.5-13.50%-
vs Similar (3)28.040.068.0-12.00%-
vs Weaker (19)38.333.071.3+5.368%-
This opponent (NC Wilmington) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
NC WilmingtonLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Monmouth
#159
W
36-31
36
31
+5
H20/02
NCAA
Campbell
#222
W
36-35
36
35
+1
A21/02
NCAA
N. Carolina A&T
#299
W
44-26
44
26
+18
H27/02
NCAA
Charleston
#80
W
35-23
35
23
+12
H02/03
NCAA
Elon
#256
W
35-24
35
24
+11
A04/03
NCAA
Campbell
#222
W
33-31
33
31
+2
H08/03
NCAA
Mount Olive Trojans
#435
W
36-27
36
27
+9
H03/11
NCAA
East Carolina
#123
L
31-33
31
33
-2
A07/11
NCAA
Kent State
#278
W
49-30
49
30
+19
H12/11
NCAA
Montreat College
#518
W
57-26
57
26
+31
H14/11
NCAA
67.8Avg total
39.2Scored
28.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.131.868.9+5.277%-
Last 30 at home (18)38.228.266.4+9.989%-
Last 30 away (12)35.437.272.7-1.858%-
Last 10 (10)39.228.667.8+10.690%-
Last 5 (5)41.229.470.6+11.880%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (5)35.834.470.2+1.460%-
vs Weaker ◀ (23)36.531.768.3+4.878%-
This opponent (Norfolk State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Norfolk State wins
1
NC Wilmington wins
DateGameScore
02/12/21NC Wilmington v Norfolk State69-74
18/12/20Norfolk State v NC Wilmington72-80
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/11/26AGeorgia State53-78
12/11/26HOld Dominion60-71
08/11/26AWilliam & Mary73-104
05/11/26HRandolph78-71
03/11/26HRegent University68-45
12/03/26HSouth Carolina St82-88
06/03/26HHoward76-84
02/03/26AMorgan State84-90
28/02/26ACoppin State75-69
21/02/26HSouth Carolina St90-71
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26HMontreat College100-41
12/11/26HKent State91-73
07/11/26AEast Carolina78-75
03/11/26HMount Olive Trojans101-65
08/03/26HCampbell70-85
04/03/26AElon76-57
02/03/26HCharleston76-79
27/02/26HN. Carolina A&T88-65
21/02/26ACampbell73-68
20/02/26HMonmouth79-69

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Norfolk State
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLL40%
HomeWWL67%
AwayLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games532
Win %40%67%0%
Points / game66.468.763.0
Allowed / game73.862.391.0
Point differential-7.4+6.3-28.0
Avg total140.2131.0154.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+20%33%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
NC Wilmington
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWW100%
HomeWWW100%
AwayW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games431
Win %100%100%100%
Points / game92.597.378.0
Allowed / game63.559.775.0
Point differential+29.0+37.7+3.0
Avg total156.0157.0153.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+75%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)-100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Mid-Eastern Athletic conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Morgan State54180%80.864.6+16.2
2 Howard53260%72.070.6+1.4
3 South Carolina St53260%75.876.2-0.4
4 Norfolk State52340%66.473.8-7.4
5 Delaware State41325%68.068.2-0.2
6 Coppin State51420%62.467.6-5.2
7 Md.-East. Shore51420%58.670.0-11.4
8 N. Carolina Central4040%63.574.2-10.8
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Coastal Athletic Association conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Charleston440100%101.067.0+34.0
2 NC Wilmington440100%92.563.5+29.0
3 Towson53260%70.260.8+9.4
4 N. Carolina A&T42250%83.270.2+13.0
5 Hofstra42250%70.063.8+6.2
6 Elon42250%69.570.5-1.0
7 William & Mary42250%88.289.2-1.0
8 Northeastern42250%78.883.2-4.5
9 Drexel42250%66.873.2-6.5
10 Stony Brook31233%73.764.7+9.0
11 Hampton41325%59.866.0-6.2
12 Campbell41325%70.278.8-8.5
13 Monmouth41325%61.079.2-18.2
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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