PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
Northern Iowa faces Lindenwood on 17 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names the Hawkeyes the clear favourite, rating them 94% to win largely because of their 2-1 record, 92.7 points per game and 81.3 allowed, and a perfect 2-0 home record with 97.5 points scored and 73.0 allowed, while Lindenwood sits at 2-2 with 88.5 points per game and 70.5 allowed, and a 0-2 road record with 59.5 points scored and 96.0 allowed. Northern Iowa's last five games include a 89-76 home win over Wisc. Green Bay, a 106-70 home win over Cornell College and a 83-98 away loss to Furman, whereas Lindenwood's recent slate features a 115-44 home win over EWU Phantoms, a 120-46 home win over Central Bible and a 60-94 away loss to Nebraska. The teams have met once before, with the last meeting ending 84-66 in favour of Northern Iowa. Pythia projects a 84-66 score, 149.8 total points, a 94% probability for Northern Iowa to win, a 6% chance for Lindenwood, and a 1% likelihood of overtime. The Hawkeyes' line is 84-66, and the model gives a 94% probability that they will cover.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (4) | 87.5 | 87.5 | 175.0 | +0.0 | 50% |
| Season at home (2) | 97.5 | 73.0 | 170.5 | +24.5 | 100% |
| Season away (2) | 77.5 | 102.0 | 179.5 | -24.5 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 77.7 | 73.1 | 150.8 | +4.6 | 70% |
| Last 5 (5) | 80.6 | 85.8 | 166.4 | -5.2 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (4) | 75.5 | 85.8 | 161.2 | -10.2 | 25% |
| vs Similar (12) | 67.4 | 67.9 | 135.3 | -0.5 | 42% |
| vs Weaker (13) | 69.0 | 58.8 | 127.8 | +10.2 | 77% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (5) | 82.0 | 69.8 | 151.8 | +12.2 | 40% |
| Season at home (2) | 117.5 | 45.0 | 162.5 | +72.5 | 100% |
| Season away (3) | 58.3 | 86.3 | 144.7 | -28.0 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 76.3 | 69.1 | 145.4 | +7.2 | 40% |
| Last 5 (5) | 82.0 | 69.8 | 151.8 | +12.2 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (2) | 59.5 | 96.0 | 155.5 | -36.5 | 0% |
| vs Similar (10) | 71.0 | 75.9 | 146.9 | -4.9 | 20% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (15) | 79.1 | 69.4 | 148.5 | +9.7 | 73% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 33.6 | 32.5 | 66.1 | +1.1 | 43% | - |
| Last 30 at home (13) | 34.2 | 31.2 | 65.3 | +3.0 | 46% | - |
| Last 30 away (17) | 33.2 | 33.5 | 66.7 | -0.4 | 41% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 39.6 | 38.2 | 77.8 | +1.4 | 60% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 38.8 | 44.4 | 83.2 | -5.6 | 40% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (4) | 37.0 | 40.2 | 77.2 | -3.2 | 25% | - |
| vs Similar (12) | 32.8 | 33.2 | 66.1 | -0.4 | 42% | - |
| vs Weaker (13) | 32.4 | 28.7 | 61.1 | +3.7 | 46% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 39.3 | 33.4 | 72.7 | +5.9 | 53% | - |
| Last 30 at home (15) | 44.3 | 31.2 | 75.5 | +13.1 | 67% | - |
| Last 30 away (15) | 34.3 | 35.5 | 69.9 | -1.2 | 40% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 40.3 | 32.8 | 73.1 | +7.5 | 60% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 45.2 | 37.4 | 82.6 | +7.8 | 60% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (2) | 34.5 | 59.0 | 93.5 | -24.5 | 0% | - |
| vs Similar (10) | 34.7 | 33.9 | 68.6 | +0.8 | 40% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (15) | 38.7 | 32.1 | 70.8 | +6.7 | 60% | - |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/26 | A | Michigan State | 72-106 |
| 11/11/26 | H | Wisc. Green Bay | 89-76 |
| 07/11/26 | A | Furman | 83-98 |
| 04/11/26 | H | Cornell College | 106-70 |
| 20/03/26 | A | St. John's (N.Y.) | 53-79 |
| 08/03/26 | A | Illinois (Chi.) | 84-69 |
| 07/03/26 | A | Bradley | 73-69 |
| 07/03/26 | A | Illinois State | 74-52 |
| 06/03/26 | H | Evansville | 68-59 |
| 01/03/26 | A | Drake | 75-53 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/26 | A | Nebraska O. | 56-67 |
| 12/11/26 | A | Nebraska | 60-94 |
| 07/11/26 | H | EWU Phantoms | 115-44 |
| 06/11/26 | H | Central Bible | 120-46 |
| 03/11/26 | A | TCU | 59-98 |
| 06/03/26 | A | Southeast Missouri State | 66-68 |
| 05/03/26 | H | UALR | 72-62 |
| 28/02/26 | A | Western Illinois | 91-69 |
| 27/02/26 | H | Eastern Illinois | 67-71 |
| 21/02/26 | A | Tennessee Tech | 57-72 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WLWL | 50% |
| Home | WW | 100% |
| Away | LL | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 2 | 2 |
| Win % | 50% | 100% | 0% |
| Points / game | 87.5 | 97.5 | 77.5 |
| Allowed / game | 87.5 | 73.0 | 102.0 |
| Point differential | +0.0 | +24.5 | -24.5 |
| Avg total | 175.0 | 170.5 | 179.5 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 50% | 100% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LWWLL | 40% |
| Home | WW | 100% |
| Away | LLL | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 2 | 3 |
| Win % | 40% | 100% | 0% |
| Points / game | 82.0 | 117.5 | 58.3 |
| Allowed / game | 69.8 | 45.0 | 86.3 |
| Point differential | +12.2 | +72.5 | -28.0 |
| Avg total | 151.8 | 162.5 | 144.7 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 40% | 100% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Murray State | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 95.0 | 67.5 | +27.5 |
| 2 |  Drake | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 85.7 | 62.7 | +23.0 |
| 3 |  Illinois (Chi.) | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 79.5 | 64.8 | +14.8 |
| 4 |  Southern Illinois | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 85.0 | 70.0 | +15.0 |
| 5 |  Belmont | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 74.0 | 62.3 | +11.7 |
| 6 |  Valparaiso | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 77.3 | 73.0 | +4.3 |
| 7 |  Evansville | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 75.3 | 73.0 | +2.3 |
| 8 |  Bradley | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 59.5 | 55.0 | +4.5 |
| 9 | Northern Iowa | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 87.5 | 87.5 | +0.0 |
| 10 |  Indiana State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 70.7 | 75.3 | -4.7 |
| 11 |  Illinois State | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 81.2 | 75.8 | +5.5 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tennessee State | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 98.0 | 77.8 | +20.2 |
| 2 |  UT Martin | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 85.0 | 74.2 | +10.8 |
| 3 |  Southeast Missouri State | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 79.8 | 77.5 | +2.2 |
| 4 |  Tennessee Tech | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 92.0 | 90.0 | +2.0 |
| 5 | Lindenwood | 5 | 2 | 3 | 40% | 82.0 | 69.8 | +12.2 |
| 6 |  Siu Edwardsville | 5 | 2 | 3 | 40% | 71.6 | 72.8 | -1.2 |
| 7 |  Morehead State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 76.3 | 83.3 | -7.0 |
| 8 |  Southern Indiana | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 78.0 | 66.5 | +11.5 |
| 9 |  Western Illinois | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 74.5 | 73.2 | +1.2 |
| 10 |  Eastern Illinois | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 69.0 | 80.0 | -11.0 |
| 11 |  UALR | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 73.3 | 86.3 | -13.0 |
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