TCU hosts Lindenwood on 2 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names TCU the favourite with a 79% chance of winning, reflecting the Cowboys' superior season numbers and recent form. TCU has won three of its last five games, while Lindenwood has secured two victories in five outings, a contrast that the model weighs heavily. In the most recent encounters, TCU fell to Duke 58-81 away on 21 March 2026, then edged Ohio State 66-64 away on 19 March 2026, and lost to Kansas 73-78 away on 12 March 2026, whereas Lindenwood lost to Southeast Missouri State 66-68 away on 5 March 2026, then beat UALR 72-62 at home on 4 March 2026 and Western Illinois 91-69 away on 28 February 2026. The projected score is 78-69 in favour of TCU, with a total of 146.8 points, and the over line of 154.5 carries a 32% probability of hitting. The model also estimates a 4% chance of overtime. The game will likely see TCU extend its winning streak, as the Cowboys have shown resilience in recent losses.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | no games | ||||
| Season at home | no games | ||||
| Season away | no games | ||||
| Last 10 (10) | 73.6 | 72.1 | 145.7 | +1.5 | 70% |
| Last 5 (5) | 73.0 | 74.8 | 147.8 | -1.8 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (5) | 69.4 | 76.2 | 145.6 | -6.8 | 40% |
| vs Similar (15) | 76.6 | 73.5 | 150.1 | +3.1 | 73% |
| vs Weaker (10) | 81.2 | 72.2 | 153.4 | +9.0 | 70% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | no games | ||||
| Season at home | no games | ||||
| Season away | no games | ||||
| Last 10 (10) | 72.0 | 73.0 | 145.0 | -1.0 | 40% |
| Last 5 (5) | 70.6 | 68.4 | 139.0 | +2.2 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger | no games | ||||
| vs Similar (12) | 70.5 | 75.8 | 146.2 | -5.2 | 25% |
| vs Weaker (16) | 78.7 | 70.9 | 149.6 | +7.8 | 75% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 74.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 35.1 | 35.4 | 70.5 | -0.4 | 43% | 37% |
| Last 30 at home (16) | 35.4 | 34.4 | 69.8 | +0.9 | 50% | 38% |
| Last 30 away (14) | 34.7 | 36.6 | 71.3 | -1.9 | 36% | 36% |
| Last 10 (10) | 35.0 | 34.2 | 69.2 | +0.8 | 60% | 30% |
| Last 5 (5) | 36.4 | 33.6 | 70.0 | +2.8 | 60% | 20% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (5) | 31.8 | 39.6 | 71.4 | -7.8 | 0% | 20% |
| vs Similar (15) | 35.3 | 34.5 | 69.7 | +0.8 | 53% | 40% |
| vs Weaker (10) | 36.4 | 34.8 | 71.2 | +1.6 | 50% | 40% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 74.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 37.5 | 33.0 | 70.5 | +4.5 | 50% | 43% |
| Last 30 at home (14) | 41.4 | 33.1 | 74.6 | +8.3 | 64% | 57% |
| Last 30 away (16) | 34.1 | 32.9 | 66.9 | +1.2 | 38% | 31% |
| Last 10 (10) | 35.9 | 32.0 | 67.9 | +3.9 | 60% | 40% |
| Last 5 (5) | 35.4 | 28.2 | 63.6 | +7.2 | 60% | 20% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger | no games | |||||
| vs Similar (12) | 32.8 | 34.5 | 67.2 | -1.8 | 33% | 33% |
| vs Weaker (16) | 38.3 | 33.0 | 71.3 | +5.3 | 56% | 44% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lindenwood +19.5 | 82.3% | 4.50 | 4.50 | - | - | - | - | +61.8pp | Lost |
| Lindenwood +22 | 87.8% | 3.45 | 3.45 | - | - | - | - | +60.9pp | Lost |
| Lindenwood +23 | 89.4% | 3.10 | 3.10 | - | - | - | - | +59.4pp | Lost |
| Lindenwood +18.5 | 80.0% | 4.40 | 4.40 | - | - | - | - | +58.9pp | Lost |
| Lindenwood +21 | 86.0% | 3.35 | 3.35 | - | - | - | - | +58.4pp | Lost |
| Lindenwood +24 | 90.8% | 2.80 | 2.80 | - | - | - | - | +57.8pp | Lost |
| Lindenwood +22.5 | 88.0% | 3.06 | 3.20 | 2.92 | - | - | - | +57.7pp | Lost |
| Lindenwood +21.5 | 86.3% | 3.24 | 3.60 | 2.87 | - | - | - | +57.3pp | Lost |
| Lindenwood +23.5 | 89.6% | 2.79 | 2.85 | 2.72 | - | - | - | +56.4pp | Lost |
| Lindenwood +25 | 92.1% | 2.60 | 2.60 | - | - | - | - | +56.3pp | Lost |
| Lindenwood +20.5 | 84.4% | 3.25 | 3.45 | 3.05 | - | - | - | +55.8pp | Lost |
| Lindenwood +24.5 | 91.0% | 2.58 | 2.65 | 2.52 | - | - | - | +55.2pp | Lost |
| TCU under 83.5 | 71.2% | 4.70 | 5.00 | 4.40 | - | - | - | +51.4pp | Lost |
| TCU under 85.5 | 77.6% | 3.35 | 3.45 | 3.25 | - | - | - | +50.0pp | Lost |
| TCU under 87.5 | 83.2% | 2.73 | 2.80 | 2.67 | - | - | - | +49.7pp | Lost |
| TCU under 89.5 | 87.7% | 2.37 | 2.50 | 2.35 | 2.25 | - | - | +48.1pp | Lost |
| TCU under 88.5 | 85.5% | 2.43 | 2.50 | 2.45 | 2.35 | - | - | +48.0pp | Lost |
| TCU under 84.5 | 74.5% | 3.50 | 3.50 | - | - | - | - | +47.9pp | Lost |
| TCU under 86.5 | 80.5% | 2.92 | 3.20 | 2.80 | 2.75 | - | - | +47.6pp | Lost |
| TCU under 90.5 | 89.6% | 2.10 | 2.13 | 2.07 | - | - | - | +45.4pp | Lost |
| TCU under 91.5 | 91.3% | 1.89 | 2.00 | 1.98 | 1.85 | 1.85 | 1.85 | +44.0pp | Lost |
| TCU under 92 | 92.6% | 1.88 | 1.88 | - | - | - | - | +43.4pp | Lost |
| Lindenwood over 62.5 | 73.2% | 1.84 | 1.88 | 1.85 | 1.84 | 1.83 | 1.83 | +22.9pp | Lost |
| Lindenwood over 61.5 | 76.3% | 1.73 | 1.76 | 1.70 | - | - | - | +22.8pp | Lost |
| Lindenwood over 63 | 72.2% | 1.86 | 1.87 | 1.85 | - | - | - | +22.5pp | Lost |
| Under 156 | 72.1% | 1.76 | 1.81 | 1.77 | 1.71 | - | - | +19.7pp | Lost |
| Under 155.5 | 70.6% | 1.83 | 1.86 | 1.85 | 1.85 | 1.83 | 1.81 | +19.5pp | Lost |
| Lindenwood over 59.5 | 82.0% | 1.47 | 1.50 | 1.45 | 1.45 | - | - | +19.5pp | Lost |
| Lindenwood over 60.5 | 79.3% | 1.54 | 1.55 | 1.52 | - | - | - | +19.4pp | Lost |
| Under 156.5 | 72.6% | 1.73 | 1.78 | 1.78 | 1.73 | 1.72 | 1.70 | +19.2pp | Lost |
| Under 157.5 | 74.6% | 1.64 | 1.67 | 1.65 | 1.64 | 1.60 | - | +18.9pp | Won |
| Under 157 | 74.1% | 1.66 | 1.68 | 1.64 | - | - | - | +17.7pp | Push |
| Under 158 | 76.0% | 1.57 | 1.57 | - | - | - | - | +17.1pp | Won |
| Lindenwood over 58.5 | 84.5% | 1.36 | 1.38 | 1.34 | - | - | - | +17.0pp | Won |
| Under 158.5 | 76.5% | 1.56 | 1.57 | 1.54 | - | - | - | +17.0pp | Won |
| Under 159 | 77.9% | 1.52 | 1.52 | - | - | - | - | +16.7pp | Won |
| Lindenwood over 57.5 | 86.7% | 1.31 | 1.31 | 1.30 | - | - | - | +16.6pp | Won |
| Under 159.5 | 78.3% | 1.50 | 1.52 | 1.47 | - | - | - | +16.2pp | Won |
| Under 160.5 | 80.0% | 1.44 | 1.47 | 1.41 | - | - | - | +15.7pp | Won |
| Under 160 | 79.6% | 1.45 | 1.45 | - | - | - | - | +15.5pp | Won |
| Under 161 | 81.3% | 1.40 | 1.40 | - | - | - | - | +15.1pp | Won |
| Under 161.5 | 81.6% | 1.39 | 1.40 | 1.37 | - | - | - | +15.1pp | Won |
| Under 162.5 | 83.2% | 1.35 | 1.37 | 1.32 | - | - | - | +14.3pp | Won |
| Lindenwood over 56.5 | 88.7% | 1.23 | 1.25 | 1.22 | - | - | - | +13.8pp | Won |
| Under 162 | 82.9% | 1.34 | 1.34 | - | - | - | - | +13.4pp | Won |
| Lindenwood over 55.5 | 90.5% | 1.18 | 1.18 | - | - | - | - | +11.7pp | Won |
| Under 164.5 | 86.0% | 1.23 | 1.23 | - | - | - | - | +10.7pp | Won |
| Under 169.5 | 91.5% | 1.11 | 1.11 | - | - | - | - | +7.1pp | Won |
| Under 174.5 | 95.1% | 1.04 | 1.04 | - | - | - | - | +5.7pp | Won |
| Over 129.5 | 85.4% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | -7.4pp | Won |
| Lindenwood under 78.5 | 82.5% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | -9.7pp | Won |
| Lindenwood under 77.5 | 80.0% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | -11.5pp | Won |
| Over 134.5 | 77.1% | 1.04 | 1.04 | - | - | - | - | -12.5pp | Won |
| Lindenwood under 76.5 | 77.3% | 1.03 | 1.03 | - | - | - | - | -13.2pp | Won |
| TCU (regulation) | 76.4% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | -14.8pp | Won |
| Lindenwood under 75.5 | 74.3% | 1.03 | 1.03 | - | - | - | - | -15.9pp | Won |
| TCU win | 78.7% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | -16.0pp | Won |
| Lindenwood under 74.5 | 71.1% | 1.06 | 1.06 | - | - | - | - | -17.2pp | Won |
| TCU over 71.5 | 73.9% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | -19.8pp | Won |
| TCU over 72.5 | 70.6% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | -21.6pp | Won |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/03/26 | A | Duke | 58-81 |
| 19/03/26 | A | Ohio State | 66-64 |
| 13/03/26 | A | Kansas | 73-78 |
| 12/03/26 | H | Oklahoma State | 95-88 |
| 07/03/26 | H | Cincinnati | 73-63 |
| 04/03/26 | A | Texas Tech | 73-65 |
| 28/02/26 | A | Kansas State | 77-68 |
| 25/02/26 | H | Arizona State | 90-78 |
| 21/02/26 | H | West Virginia | 60-54 |
| 18/02/26 | A | UCF Knights | 71-82 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/03/26 | A | Southeast Missouri State | 66-68 |
| 05/03/26 | H | UALR | 72-62 |
| 28/02/26 | A | Western Illinois | 91-69 |
| 27/02/26 | H | Eastern Illinois | 67-71 |
| 21/02/26 | A | Tennessee Tech | 57-72 |
| 20/02/26 | A | Tennessee State | 80-89 |
| 14/02/26 | H | Southeast Missouri State | 61-73 |
| 13/02/26 | H | UT Martin | 75-74 |
| 06/02/26 | A | UALR | 79-74 |
| 04/02/26 | H | Siu Edwardsville | 72-78 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | - | - |
| Home | - | - |
| Away | - | - |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | - | - | - |
| Win % | - | - | - |
| Points / game | - | - | - |
| Allowed / game | - | - | - |
| Point differential | - | - | - |
| Avg total | - | - | - |
| Over 155 | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | - | - | - |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | - | - | - |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | - | - |
| Home | - | - |
| Away | - | - |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | - | - | - |
| Win % | - | - | - |
| Points / game | - | - | - |
| Allowed / game | - | - | - |
| Point differential | - | - | - |
| Avg total | - | - | - |
| Over 155 | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | - | - | - |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | - | - | - |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | West Virginia | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 91.0 | 46.0 | +45.0 |
| 2 | Texas Tech | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 76.0 | 42.0 | +34.0 |
| 3 | Cincinnati | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 79.0 | 53.0 | +26.0 |
| 4 | UCF Knights | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 96.0 | 95.0 | +1.0 |
| 5 | Iowa State | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 76.0 | 80.0 | -4.0 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Siu Edwardsville | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 91.0 | 39.0 | +52.0 |
| 2 | Southeast Missouri State | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 86.0 | 79.0 | +7.0 |
| 3 | UALR | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 72.0 | 82.0 | -10.0 |
| 4 | Southern Indiana | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 54.0 | 72.0 | -18.0 |
| 5 | Tennessee Tech | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 88.0 | 106.0 | -18.0 |
| 6 | Morehead State | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 58.0 | 83.0 | -25.0 |
| 7 | Tennessee State | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 64.0 | 94.0 | -30.0 |
| 8 | Eastern Illinois | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 57.0 | 91.0 | -34.0 |
| Team | 1H | 2H | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
| TCU | 57 | 41 | 98 |
| Lindenwood | 37 | 22 | 59 |
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