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Illinois State vs Northern Iowa Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 07 Mar 2026
Tip-off: 02:30
Final 52-74
0-0 27-35 0-0 25-39
Position#96
Record20-11
FormLWLWW
Points / game75.9
Allowed / game68.3
Illinois State
USA
vs
Northern Iowa 🏆
USA
Position#88
Record20-12
FormWLLWW
Points / game69.2
Allowed / game61.1
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · Illinois State v Northern Iowa
06 Mar 2026
ILLI52
NORT74
21 Jan 2026
ILLI59
NORT54
11 Jan 2025
ILLI84
NORT85
21 Feb 2024
ILLI81
NORT73
31 Dec 2022
ILLI60
NORT66
15 Feb 2022
ILLI70
NORT72
27 Feb 2021
ILLI87
NORT94
26 Feb 2021
ILLI56
NORT70
31 Dec 2019
ILLI76
NORT70
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Illinois State winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Northern Iowa winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Illinois StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Murray State
#102
W
70-65
70
65
+5
A29/01
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#203
L
50-54
50
54
-4
H04/02
NCAA
Drake
#271
W
86-76
86
76
+10
H07/02
NCAA
Evansville
#362
L
80-88
80
88
-8
A10/02
NCAA
Valparaiso
#170
W
86-64
86
64
+22
H13/02
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#155
L
56-83
56
83
-27
A15/02
NCAA
Murray State
#102
W
78-61
78
61
+17
H19/02
NCAA
Bradley
#91
L
60-74
60
74
-14
A22/02
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#88
W
71-69
71
69
+2
A26/02
NCAA
Belmont
#25
W
81-74
81
74
+7
H01/03
NCAA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
0-0
35-29
0-0
35-36
0-0
24-22
0-0
26-32
0-0
47-32
0-0
39-44
0-0
32-45
0-0
48-43
0-0
34-34
0-0
52-30
0-0
26-33
0-0
30-50
0-0
36-28
0-0
42-33
0-0
31-43
0-0
29-31
0-0
28-23
0-0
43-46
0-0
38-40
0-0
43-34
142.6Avg total
71.8Scored
70.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (31)75.968.3144.1+7.665%
Season at home (17)79.061.2140.2+17.888%
Season away (14)72.176.9148.9-4.836%
Last 10 (10)71.870.8142.6+1.060%
Last 5 (5)69.272.2141.4-3.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)78.083.0161.0-5.00%
vs Similar ◀ (14)68.966.9135.8+1.964%
vs Weaker (14)82.169.7151.8+12.471%
This opponent (Northern Iowa) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Northern IowaUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Evansville
#362
W
71-55
71
55
+16
H31/01
NCAA
Bradley
#91
W
61-49
61
49
+12
H07/02
NCAA
Murray State
#102
W
89-60
89
60
+29
A10/02
NCAA
Belmont
#25
L
86-91
86
91
-5
A13/02
NCAA
Drake
#271
W
86-62
86
62
+24
H15/02
NCAA
Indiana State
#311
W
81-60
81
60
+21
A19/02
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#203
L
57-59
57
59
-2
H21/02
NCAA
Illinois State
#96
L
69-71
69
71
-2
H26/02
NCAA
Drake
#271
W
75-53
75
53
+22
A01/03
NCAA
Evansville
#362
W
68-59
68
59
+9
H06/03
NCAA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
0-0
41-21
0-0
30-34
0-0
30-23
0-0
31-26
0-0
39-31
0-0
50-29
0-0
45-45
0-0
41-46
0-0
38-29
0-0
48-33
0-0
36-34
0-0
45-26
0-0
30-33
0-0
27-26
0-0
23-28
0-0
46-43
0-0
39-24
0-0
36-29
0-0
35-36
0-0
33-23
136.2Avg total
74.3Scored
61.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (32)69.261.1130.3+8.262%
Season at home (18)71.460.5131.9+10.972%
Season away (14)66.461.8128.2+4.650%
Last 10 (10)74.361.9136.2+12.470%
Last 5 (5)70.060.4130.4+9.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)59.063.0122.0-4.00%
vs Similar ◀ (11)66.767.5134.3-0.836%
vs Weaker (17)71.457.1128.4+14.382%
This opponent (Illinois State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-9-4+0+4+9Q1Q1: +0.0+0.0Q1: +0.0+0.0Q2Q2: +0.2+0.2Q2: +5.2+5.2Q3Q3: +0.0+0.0Q3: +0.0+0.0Q4Q4: +0.8+0.8Q4: +7.2+7.2
-9-4+0+4+9Q1Q1: +0.0+0.0Q1: +0.0+0.0Q2Q2: +0.2+0.2Q2: +5.2+5.2Q3Q3: +0.0+0.0Q3: +0.0+0.0Q4Q4: +0.8+0.8Q4: +7.2+7.2
Illinois StateNorthern Iowa
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Illinois StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Murray State
#102
W
35-29
35
29
+6
A29/01
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#203
W
24-22
24
22
+2
H04/02
NCAA
Drake
#271
W
47-32
47
32
+15
H07/02
NCAA
Evansville
#362
L
32-45
32
45
-13
A10/02
NCAA
Valparaiso
#170
D
34-34
34
34
+0
H13/02
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#155
L
26-33
26
33
-7
A15/02
NCAA
Murray State
#102
W
36-28
36
28
+8
H19/02
NCAA
Bradley
#91
L
31-43
31
43
-12
A22/02
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#88
W
28-23
28
23
+5
A26/02
NCAA
Belmont
#25
L
38-40
38
40
-2
H01/03
NCAA
66.0Avg total
33.1Scored
32.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.131.968.0+4.157%-
Last 30 at home (17)39.228.267.4+11.176%-
Last 30 away (13)31.936.868.8-4.931%-
Last 10 (10)33.132.966.0+0.250%-
Last 5 (5)31.833.465.2-1.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)33.040.073.0-7.00%-
vs Similar ◀ (14)31.731.363.0+0.450%-
vs Weaker (14)39.832.872.6+7.064%-
This opponent (Northern Iowa) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Northern IowaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Evansville
#362
W
41-21
41
21
+20
H31/01
NCAA
Bradley
#91
W
30-23
30
23
+7
H07/02
NCAA
Murray State
#102
W
39-31
39
31
+8
A10/02
NCAA
Belmont
#25
D
45-45
45
45
+0
A13/02
NCAA
Drake
#271
W
38-29
38
29
+9
H15/02
NCAA
Indiana State
#311
W
36-34
36
34
+2
A19/02
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#203
L
30-33
30
33
-3
H21/02
NCAA
Illinois State
#96
L
23-28
23
28
-5
H26/02
NCAA
Drake
#271
W
39-24
39
24
+15
A01/03
NCAA
Evansville
#362
L
35-36
35
36
-1
H06/03
NCAA
66.0Avg total
35.6Scored
30.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)32.429.161.6+3.347%-
Last 30 at home (16)33.329.362.6+4.050%-
Last 30 away (14)31.428.960.4+2.543%-
Last 10 (10)35.630.466.0+5.260%-
Last 5 (5)32.631.063.6+1.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)27.031.058.0-4.00%-
vs Similar ◀ (11)30.630.561.2+0.136%-
vs Weaker (17)34.228.062.2+6.259%-
This opponent (Illinois State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Illinois State wins
7
Northern Iowa wins
DateGameScore
26/02/26Northern Iowa v Illinois State69-71
22/01/26Illinois State v Northern Iowa59-54
08/02/25Northern Iowa v Illinois State68-65
12/01/25Illinois State v Northern Iowa84-85
22/02/24Illinois State v Northern Iowa81-73
02/03/23Northern Iowa v Illinois State75-62
19/01/23Northern Iowa v Illinois State65-63
31/12/22Illinois State v Northern Iowa60-66
04/03/22Northern Iowa v Illinois State78-65
16/02/22Illinois State v Northern Iowa70-72
Illinois Statelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
01/03/26HBelmont81-74
26/02/26ANorthern Iowa71-69
22/02/26ABradley60-74
19/02/26HMurray State78-61
15/02/26AIllinois (Chi.)56-83
13/02/26HValparaiso86-64
10/02/26AEvansville80-88
07/02/26HDrake86-76
04/02/26HSouthern Illinois50-54
29/01/26AMurray State70-65
Northern Iowalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
06/03/26HEvansville68-59
01/03/26ADrake75-53
26/02/26HIllinois State69-71
21/02/26HSouthern Illinois57-59
19/02/26AIndiana State81-60
15/02/26HDrake86-62
13/02/26ABelmont86-91
10/02/26AMurray State89-60
07/02/26HBradley61-49
31/01/26HEvansville71-55

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Illinois State
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWW65%
HomeLWWWW88%
AwayWLLLW36%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games311714
Win %65%88%36%
Points / game75.979.072.1
Allowed / game68.361.276.9
Point differential+7.6+17.8-4.8
Avg total144.1140.2148.9
Over main line---
Win by 10+42%71%7%
Close games (≤5 pts) won44% (9)33% (3)50% (6)
Overtime %3%6%0%
Northern Iowa
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLWW62%
HomeWWLLW72%
AwayLWLWW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games321814
Win %62%72%50%
Points / game69.271.466.4
Allowed / game61.160.561.8
Point differential+8.2+10.9+4.6
Avg total130.3131.9128.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+44%50%36%
Close games (≤5 pts) won22% (9)25% (4)20% (5)
Overtime %6%6%7%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Missouri Valley conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Belmont3326779%82.974.1+8.8
2 Bradley32211166%77.873.4+4.4
3 Illinois State31201165%75.968.3+7.6
4 Northern Iowa32201262%69.261.1+8.2
5 Murray State32201262%83.379.9+3.4
6 Illinois (Chi.)32181456%75.870.1+5.7
7 Valparaiso33181555%72.071.5+0.5
8 Southern Illinois32161650%73.069.6+3.4
9 Drake33141942%75.874.9+0.9
10 Indiana State32112134%73.674.5-0.9
11 Evansville3272522%67.076.5-9.5
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Illinois State02702552
Northern Iowa03503974
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