Novosibirsk faces Tambov in the Super League on 5 November 2026, with the model favouring Novosibirsk at 71% to win over Tambov's 29%. Novosibirsk has gone 2-5 in all seven games this season, scoring 80.9 points per game while allowing 89.1, and sits 11th in the league; at home they are 2-1, averaging 85.7 points and conceding 77.3, and have won two of their last five. Their recent outings include a 103-85 home win over Izhevsk, a 79-83 loss to Metallurg away, and a 94-103 defeat to Chelyabinsk away. Tambov is 2-4 across six games, with 71.3 points scored and 73.8 allowed, positioned 8th; on the road they are 0-3, averaging 62.3 points and 73.7 allowed, and have also won two of their last five, highlighted by a 67-78 loss to Barnaul away, an 83-76 home win over Izhevsk, and a 85-90 home loss to Chelyabinsk. In their last ten meetings Novosibirsk has won six to Tambov's four, most recently triumphing 101-97 on 21 February 2026. Pythia projects an 81-74 scoreline with a total of 155.1 points; the home line is -12.5 with a 29% chance of covering, and the over on a 157.0 line has a 45% probability, while the chance of overtime is 5%. The game will hinge on Novosibirsk's ability to keep the margin above twelve points.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Novosibirsk winWon
70.9%fair 1.41
Best odds1.15
Implied85.4%
Edge-14.5pp
Tambov winLost
29.1%fair 3.44
Best odds6.28
Implied14.6%
Edge+14.5pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 03 Nov 14:17 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Novosibirsk) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 152Actual: Over 152
Over 152
56.9%
@ 1.51
Under 152
43.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.51
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 157 · main lineActual: Over 157
Over 157
44.6%
@ 1.88-5.0pp
Under 157
55.4%
@ 1.85+5.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathon Be
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Under
Pinnacle
1.85
Marathon Be
1.79
1xBet
1.79
Over/Under 162Actual: Over 162
Over 162
32.8%
Under 162
67.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
📊 3. Team Totals
Novosibirsk total 80.5Actual: Novosibirsk over 80.5
Over 80.5
50.6%
Under 80.5
49.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Novosibirsk total 84.5 · main lineActual: Novosibirsk over 84.5
Over 84.5
35.1%
@ 1.83-14.9pp
Under 84.5
64.9%
@ 1.83+14.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Novosibirsk total 88.5Actual: Novosibirsk over 88.5
Over 88.5
21.8%
Under 88.5
78.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tambov total 68Actual: Tambov over 68
Over 68
73.8%
Under 68
26.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tambov total 72 · main lineActual: Tambov over 72
Over 72
59.1%
@ 1.82+8.9pp
Under 72
40.9%
@ 1.84-8.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.82
1xBet
1.82
Under
Marathon Be
1.84
1xBet
1.84
Tambov total 76Actual: Tambov over 76
Over 76
43.2%
Under 76
56.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Novosibirsk -15.5Actual: Tambov +15.5
NOVO -15.5
20.6%
@ 2.26-19.6pp
TAMB +15.5
79.4%
@ 1.72+19.6pp
Best 5 market prices
NOVO
Pinnacle
2.26
Marathon Be
1.92
1xBet
1.92
TAMB
1xBet
1.72
Marathon Be
1.53
Pinnacle
1.52
Spread Novosibirsk -12.5 · main lineActual: Tambov +12.5
NOVO -12.5
28.8%
@ 1.90-20.3pp
TAMB +12.5
71.2%
@ 1.83+20.3pp
Best 5 market prices
NOVO
Pinnacle
1.90
Marathon Be
1.87
1xBet
1.87
TAMB
Pinnacle
1.83
Marathon Be
1.80
1xBet
1.80
Spread Novosibirsk -9.5Actual: Tambov +9.5
NOVO -9.5
38.6%
@ 1.58-21.7pp
TAMB +9.5
61.4%
@ 2.33+21.7pp
Best 5 market prices
NOVO
Marathon Be
1.58
Pinnacle
1.53
TAMB
Pinnacle
2.33
⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves
Quarter by quarter
NovosibirskTambov
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
NovosibirskLast 10 – 1st quarter points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Dynamo Grozny
#5
L
11-27
11
27
-16
A21/05
Super League
Dynamo Grozny
#5
W
15-12
15
12
+3
H23/05
Super League
Dynamo Grozny
#5
D
15-15
15
15
+0
A25/05
Super League
Temp Sumz Revda
#3
D
23-23
23
23
+0
A01/10
Super League
Ufa
#2
L
14-27
14
27
-13
A04/10
Super League
Dynamo Grozny
#1
W
17-12
17
12
+5
H12/10
Super League
CSKA Moscow 2
#5
W
28-16
28
16
+12
H15/10
Super League
Chelyabinsk
#4
D
27-27
27
27
+0
A22/10
Super League
Metallurg
#11
L
21-26
21
26
-5
A25/10
Super League
Izhevsk
#12
W
25-21
25
21
+4
H02/11
Super League
40.2Avg total
19.6Scored
20.6Allowed
1st quarter
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the quarter
Over 39
Last 30 (30)
19.8
20.2
40.0
-0.4
47%
50%
Last 30 at home (16)
19.6
18.2
37.9
+1.4
62%
38%
Last 30 away (14)
20.0
22.4
42.4
-2.4
29%
64%
Last 10 (10)
19.6
20.6
40.2
-1.0
40%
60%
Last 5 (5)
23.6
20.4
44.0
+3.2
60%
80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (24)
20.0
20.3
40.3
-0.3
50%
50%
vs Similar (4)
21.2
20.2
41.5
+1.0
50%
50%
vs Weaker (2)
14.5
18.5
33.0
-4.0
0%
50%
This opponent (Tambov) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Tambov +16
81.3%
1.60
1xBet
1.67
Marathon Bet
1.53
-
-
-
+26.0pp
Won
Tambov +12
70.3%
1.86
Pinnacle
1.92
Marathon Bet
1.83
1xBet
1.83
-
-
+21.5pp
Won
Tambov +15
78.9%
1.57
1xBet
1.61
Pinnacle
1.56
Marathon Bet
1.55
-
-
+20.6pp
Won
Tambov +13
73.4%
1.75
Pinnacle
1.76
Marathon Bet
1.74
1xBet
1.74
-
-
+20.4pp
Won
Tambov +12.5
71.2%
1.81
Pinnacle
1.83
Marathon Bet
1.80
1xBet
1.80
-
-
+20.3pp
Won
Tambov +14
76.2%
1.64
Marathon Bet
1.64
1xBet
1.64
Pinnacle
1.64
-
-
+19.7pp
Won
Tambov +15.5
79.4%
1.59
1xBet
1.72
Marathon Bet
1.53
Pinnacle
1.52
-
-
+19.6pp
Won
Tambov +13.5
74.1%
1.69
Marathon Bet
1.69
1xBet
1.69
Pinnacle
1.69
-
-
+19.3pp
Won
Tambov +14.5
76.9%
1.62
1xBet
1.66
Marathon Bet
1.60
Pinnacle
1.60
-
-
+18.9pp
Won
Novosibirsk win
70.9%
1.12
Marathon Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.15
Pinnacle
1.07
-
-
-14.5pp
Won
Tambov +17.5
83.9%
1.55
Marathon Bet
1.55
-
-
-
-
-
Won
Tambov +17
83.6%
1.58
Marathon Bet
1.58
-
-
-
-
-
Won
Tambov +16.5
81.8%
1.51
Marathon Bet
1.51
-
-
-
-
-
Won
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Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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