Oakland faces Northern Iowa on 14 November 2026 in the NCAA, a clash where Oakland arrives on a starkly different run from the Hawkeyes; the Golden Grizzlies have gone 0-5 with 69.0 points per game and 95.0 allowed, while Northern Iowa sits 2-1 with 92.7 points per game and 81.3 allowed. Oakland's last five games were all losses, including a 79-111 defeat to Boise State, a 68-109 loss to Alabama and a 67-90 loss to UC Santa Barbara, all on the road, whereas Northern Iowa's recent five feature three wins and two losses, highlighted by a 89-76 home victory over Wisc. Green Bay and a 106-70 win over Cornell College, with a 83-98 loss to Furman away. In their sole meeting, Northern Iowa won 75-63 on 13 December 2025. Pythia rates Oakland the favourite with a 57% chance of winning versus 43% for Northern Iowa, projecting a 79-77 score and 155.8 total points. The home line of -1.0 carries a 55% probability of covering, while the over line of 156.5 has a 48% chance, and there is a 5% likelihood of overtime. Oakland's recent road struggles contrast with Northern Iowa's stronger recent form, setting the stage for a tight contest.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Oakland winWon
55.4%fair 1.81
Best odds1.87
Implied51.4%
Edge+3.9pp
Northern Iowa winLost
44.6%fair 2.24
Best odds2.00
Implied48.6%
Edge-3.9pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 14 Nov 15:19 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Oakland) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 152.5Actual: Over 152.5
Over 152.5
61.3%
@ 1.52+0.1pp
Under 152.5
38.7%
@ 2.40-0.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.52
Betano
1.50
Under
Bet365
2.40
Betano
2.37
Over/Under 157.5 · main lineActual: Under 157.5
Over 157.5
49.4%
@ 1.93-0.4pp
Under 157.5
50.6%
@ 1.89+0.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.93
Bet365
1.93
Pinnacle
1.91
SBO
1.88
Marathon Be
1.86
Under
Pinnacle
1.89
Bet365
1.88
Marathon Be
1.87
Betano
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
Over/Under 162.5Actual: Under 162.5
Over 162.5
37.6%
@ 2.65+1.4pp
Under 162.5
62.4%
@ 1.47-1.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.65
Betano
2.47
Under
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.43
📊 3. Team Totals
Oakland total 75Actual: Oakland over 75
Over 75
67.5%
Under 75
32.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oakland total 79 · main lineActual: Oakland over 79
Over 79
52.0%
@ 1.85+1.7pp
Under 79
48.0%
@ 1.87-1.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Oakland total 83Actual: Oakland under 83
Over 83
36.2%
Under 83
63.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Northern Iowa total 74Actual: Northern Iowa over 74
Over 74
65.4%
Under 74
34.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Northern Iowa total 78 · main lineActual: Northern Iowa under 78
Over 78
49.7%
@ 1.85-0.7pp
Under 78
50.3%
@ 1.88+0.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.82
Under
Marathon Be
1.88
BetVictor
1.85
Northern Iowa total 82Actual: Northern Iowa under 82
Over 82
34.2%
Under 82
65.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Oakland -3Actual: Oakland -3
OAKL -3
46.3%
@ 2.26+3.9pp
NORT +3
53.7%
@ 1.66-3.9pp
Best 5 market prices
OAKL
Pinnacle
2.26
Bet365
2.10
NORT
Bet365
1.66
Pinnacle
1.66
Spread Oakland 0 · main lineActual: Oakland 0
OAKL 0
55.4%
@ 1.86+5.2pp
NORT 0
44.6%
@ 1.87-5.2pp
Best 5 market prices
OAKL
Marathon Be
1.86
NORT
Marathon Be
1.87
Spread Oakland +3Actual: Oakland +3
OAKL +3
64.4%
@ 1.55+4.6pp
NORT -3
35.6%
@ 2.30-4.6pp
Best 5 market prices
OAKL
Bet365
1.55
NORT
Bet365
2.30
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
OaklandNorthern Iowa
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Oakland +9.5
82.9%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+6.7pp
Won
Oakland +19.5
96.0%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+6.4pp
Won
Oakland +24.5
98.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.4pp
Won
Oakland +14.5
91.4%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
+5.3pp
Won
Northern Iowa +25.5
97.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.3pp
Won
Northern Iowa +20.5
94.5%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+5.2pp
Won
Oakland +7.5
78.0%
1.26
Betano
1.26
-
-
-
-
+5.0pp
Won
Oakland +5
71.2%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+5.0pp
Won
Oakland +6
74.4%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+5.0pp
Won
Overtime: no
94.6%
1.04
WilliamHill
1.06
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
+4.9pp
Won
Oakland +6.5
75.2%
1.32
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.31
-
-
-
+4.9pp
Won
Oakland +5.5
72.2%
1.37
Bet365
1.38
Betano
1.36
-
-
-
+4.8pp
Won
Northern Iowa under 95.5
95.1%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.6pp
Won
Oakland over 62.5
95.1%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.6pp
Won
Oakland under 96.5
94.9%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.4pp
Won
Oakland over 64.5
92.8%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+3.2pp
Won
Northern Iowa +15.5
88.6%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+3.1pp
Won
Oakland over 60.5
96.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.1pp
Won
Northern Iowa over 61.5
94.5%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.0pp
Won
Northern Iowa under 97.5
96.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.0pp
Won
Oakland under 98.5
96.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.9pp
Won
Northern Iowa under 93.5
93.0%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+2.8pp
Won
Northern Iowa over 59.5
96.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.7pp
Won
Under 183.5
93.6%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+2.5pp
Won
Oakland under 94.5
92.6%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+2.3pp
Won
Northern Iowa +10.5
78.3%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+2.2pp
Won
Northern Iowa under 87.5
82.0%
1.16
1xBet
1.17
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
+2.1pp
Won
Northern Iowa over 62.5
93.4%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+1.9pp
Won
Northern Iowa over 60.5
95.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.8pp
Won
Northern Iowa under 91.5
90.1%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+1.8pp
Won
Northern Iowa over 63.5
92.0%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+1.8pp
Won
Oakland over 66.5
89.7%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+1.8pp
Won
Under 182.5
92.9%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+1.8pp
Won
Oakland over 73.5
72.0%
1.30
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.29
-
-
-
+1.7pp
Won
Northern Iowa under 83.5
70.4%
1.33
Bet365
1.34
Betano
1.33
-
-
-
+1.7pp
Won
Northern Iowa +9.5
75.6%
1.26
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
-
+1.6pp
Won
Northern Iowa +9
74.9%
1.27
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
-
+1.5pp
Won
Under 166
70.5%
1.35
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
-
+1.5pp
Won
Oakland over 68.5
85.8%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+1.4pp
Won
Northern Iowa under 85.5
76.6%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+1.3pp
Won
Over 132.5
93.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.3pp
Won
Oakland over 69.5
83.5%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
+1.2pp
Won
Oakland under 92.5
89.5%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+1.2pp
Won
Under 178.5
89.4%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+1.1pp
Won
Under 166.5
71.1%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+1.1pp
Won
Northern Iowa under 89.5
86.5%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+1.0pp
Won
Northern Iowa +8
71.9%
1.31
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
-
+0.9pp
Won
Oakland over 72.5
75.2%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+0.7pp
Won
Northern Iowa +8.5
72.7%
1.28
Bet365
1.30
Betano
1.26
-
-
-
+0.5pp
Won
Oakland over 70.5
81.0%
1.15
Bet365
1.16
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
+0.5pp
Won
Over 133.5
92.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.5pp
Won
Under 168.5
75.0%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+0.5pp
Won
Northern Iowa over 65.5
88.7%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+0.4pp
Won
Northern Iowa over 64.5
90.5%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+0.3pp
Won
Oakland under 89.5
83.3%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
+0.3pp
Won
Under 173.5
83.2%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
+0.2pp
Won
Oakland under 90.5
85.6%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+0.1pp
Won
Oakland under 88.5
80.8%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
-0.1pp
Won
Northern Iowa over 68.5
82.1%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
-0.2pp
Won
Over 137.5
88.6%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-0.4pp
Won
Under 177.5
88.3%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-0.4pp
Won
Northern Iowa over 67.5
84.5%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-0.5pp
Won
Oakland under 86.5
75.1%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
-1.0pp
Won
Northern Iowa over 69.5
79.4%
1.15
Bet365
1.16
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
-1.1pp
Won
Northern Iowa over 66.5
86.7%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-1.2pp
Won
Under 172.5
81.8%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
-1.3pp
Won
Northern Iowa over 71.5
73.4%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
-1.4pp
Won
Oakland under 85.5
72.0%
1.25
1xBet
1.25
-
-
-
-
-1.7pp
Won
Under 167.5
73.0%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
-1.7pp
Won
Over 138.5
87.4%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-2.0pp
Won
Over 142.5
81.6%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-2.2pp
Won
Over 147.5
72.3%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
-2.4pp
Won
Northern Iowa over 70.5
76.5%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
-3.0pp
Won
Northern Iowa over 72.5
70.1%
1.25
1xBet
1.25
-
-
-
-
-3.6pp
Won
Over 143.5
79.9%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-4.5pp
Won
Over 148.5
70.2%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
-5.1pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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