Boise State faces Oakland in an NCAA game on 11 November 2026, with the model designating Boise State as the clear favourite thanks to a 2-0 record, 116.0 points per game and only 67.0 allowed per game, placing them fourth in the league, while Oakland sits at 377th with a 0-4 record, 66.5 points per game and 91.0 allowed per game. Boise State has won both of its games, scoring 116.0 and conceding 67.0 on average, and has remained undefeated at home with a 2-0 home record, including a 100-81 win over Butler and a 132-53 rout of West Coast Baptist, though they lost 74-84 to San Jose State. Oakland has struggled across all four games, losing 68-109 to Alabama, 67-90 to UC Santa Barbara and 63-81 to Stanford, and has a 0-5 road record. The two teams have met twice before, with Boise State winning both times, most recently 87-43 on 6 November 2024. Pythia gives Boise State a 95% chance of winning and Oakland a 5% chance, projecting a 89-70 score for a total of 158.8 points. The home line is -16.5 with a 60% probability of Boise State covering, while the total of 162.0 has a 42% chance of hitting the over, and the game has a 1% chance of overtime. Boise State's recent 132-53 victory over West Coast Baptist shows the team's offensive potency.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Boise State winWon
95.1%fair 1.05
Best odds1.06
Implied91.5%
Edge+3.6pp
Oakland winLost
4.9%fair 20.36
Best odds13.00
Implied8.5%
Edge-3.6pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 10 Nov 14:18 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Boise State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 155.5Actual: Over 155.5
Over 155.5
57.9%
@ 1.42-7.7pp
Under 155.5
42.1%
@ 2.75+7.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.40
Under
Bet365
2.75
Betano
2.62
Over/Under 160.5 · main lineActual: Over 160.5
Over 160.5
45.6%
@ 1.93-3.8pp
Under 160.5
54.4%
@ 2.00+3.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.93
Bet365
1.89
Marathon Be
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Under
Betano
2.00
Bet365
1.92
Marathon Be
1.88
Pinnacle
1.88
SBO
1.88
Over/Under 165.5Actual: Over 165.5
Over 165.5
33.7%
@ 2.35-6.4pp
Under 165.5
66.3%
@ 1.63+6.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.35
Betano
2.27
Under
Marathon Be
1.63
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.54
📊 3. Team Totals
Boise State total 86.5Actual: Boise State over 86.5
Over 86.5
60.4%
@ 1.57+0.6pp
Under 86.5
39.6%
@ 2.50-0.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.55
1xBet
1.50
Under
1xBet
2.50
Bet365
2.30
Betano
2.12
Boise State total 90.5 · main lineActual: Boise State over 90.5
Over 90.5
44.3%
@ 2.12-6.0pp
Under 90.5
55.7%
@ 1.87+6.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.12
WilliamHill
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
1xBet
1.87
WilliamHill
1.85
Betano
1.57
Boise State total 94.5Actual: Boise State over 94.5
Over 94.5
29.2%
@ 3.25-1.4pp
Under 94.5
70.8%
@ 1.34+1.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.25
Bet365
3.05
Betano
2.95
Under
Bet365
1.34
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.29
Oakland total 69Actual: Oakland over 69
Over 69
52.5%
Under 69
47.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oakland total 73 · main lineActual: Oakland over 73
Over 73
36.1%
@ 1.85-13.9pp
Under 73
63.9%
@ 1.85+13.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
1xBet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
1xBet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Oakland total 77Actual: Oakland over 77
Over 77
22.2%
Under 77
77.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Boise State -19.5Actual: Boise State -19.5
BOIS -19.5
49.5%
@ 2.50+11.2pp
OAKL +19.5
50.5%
@ 1.54-11.2pp
Best 5 market prices
BOIS
Betano
2.50
Bet365
2.35
OAKL
Bet365
1.54
Betano
1.47
Spread Boise State -16.5 · main lineActual: Boise State -16.5
BOIS -16.5
60.1%
@ 1.95+11.0pp
OAKL +16.5
39.9%
@ 1.88-11.0pp
Best 5 market prices
BOIS
Pinnacle
1.95
Bet365
1.94
Betano
1.93
Marathon Be
1.88
BetVictor
1.88
OAKL
Pinnacle
1.88
Bet365
1.87
Marathon Be
1.85
Betano
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Spread Boise State -13.5Actual: Boise State -13.5
BOIS -13.5
69.9%
@ 1.65+12.5pp
OAKL +13.5
30.1%
@ 2.25-12.5pp
Best 5 market prices
BOIS
Betano
1.65
Bet365
1.57
OAKL
Bet365
2.25
Betano
2.10
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
Boise StateOakland
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Boise StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
UNLV
#192
W
40-29
40
29
+11
H14/02
NCAA
Utah State
#20
L
23-30
23
30
-7
A19/02
NCAA
San Jose State
#349
W
36-31
36
31
+5
H21/02
NCAA
Wyoming
#148
W
32-30
32
30
+2
H25/02
NCAA
Fresno State
#275
W
28-23
28
23
+5
A01/03
NCAA
San Diego State
#70
W
34-27
34
27
+7
H04/03
NCAA
Colorado State
#90
W
36-28
36
28
+8
A07/03
NCAA
San Jose State
#349
L
39-41
39
41
-2
H12/03
NCAA
West Coast Baptist
#525
W
69-26
69
26
+43
H05/11
NCAA
Butler
#144
W
51-31
51
31
+20
H08/11
NCAA
68.4Avg total
38.8Scored
29.6Allowed
1st half
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the half
Over 76.5
Last 30 (30)
36.2
32.5
68.7
+3.8
67%
30%
Last 30 at home (18)
37.3
31.2
68.5
+6.2
72%
22%
Last 30 away (12)
34.6
34.4
69.0
+0.2
58%
42%
Last 10 (10)
38.8
29.6
68.4
+9.2
80%
30%
Last 5 (5)
45.8
30.6
76.4
+15.2
80%
60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)
29.4
33.8
63.2
-4.4
60%
20%
vs Similar (16)
34.9
32.4
67.2
+2.5
62%
19%
vs Weaker ◀ (9)
42.4
31.9
74.3
+10.6
78%
56%
This opponent (Oakland) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
This opponent (Boise State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: Boise State win
BOIS win
no forecast
@ 1.25
OAKL win
no forecast
@ 4.00
2nd half Spread Boise State -6.5 · main lineActual: Boise State -6.5
BOIS -6.5
no forecast
@ 1.82
OAKL +6.5
no forecast
@ 1.93
2nd half Over/Under 83.5 · main lineActual: Over 83.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.88
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Boise State (regulation)
BOIS
no forecast
@ 1.28
Draw
no forecast
@ 21.00
OAKL
no forecast
@ 3.95
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Oakland under 76.5
75.5%
1.44
Betano
1.44
-
-
-
-
+12.5pp
Lost
Boise State -12.5
72.9%
1.52
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
+12.0pp
Won
Boise State -11.5
75.8%
1.44
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.41
-
-
-
+11.7pp
Won
Boise State -10.5
78.4%
1.39
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
+11.4pp
Won
Oakland under 75.5
72.2%
1.49
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.52
1xBet
1.44
-
-
+11.0pp
Lost
Boise State -13
72.1%
1.52
Bet365
1.52
-
-
-
-
+10.9pp
Won
Boise State -9.5
80.9%
1.32
Betano
1.35
Bet365
1.29
-
-
-
+10.8pp
Won
Boise State -12
75.1%
1.44
Bet365
1.44
-
-
-
-
+10.5pp
Won
Boise State -8.5
83.2%
1.27
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
+10.4pp
Won
Boise State -11
77.8%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
-
+10.3pp
Won
Boise State -8
85.0%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+9.7pp
Won
Oakland under 77.5
78.4%
1.33
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.35
1xBet
1.29
-
-
+9.5pp
Lost
Oakland under 78.5
81.2%
1.27
Betano
1.30
1xBet
1.25
-
-
-
+9.5pp
Lost
Boise State -10
80.4%
1.31
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
-
+9.5pp
Won
Boise State -7.5
85.3%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+9.1pp
Won
Boise State -9
82.8%
1.26
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
-
+8.7pp
Won
Oakland under 79.5
83.7%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+8.4pp
Won
Boise State (regulation)
94.3%
1.06
Betano
1.07
Marathon Bet
1.05
1xBet
1.05
-
-
+7.9pp
Won
Boise State -6.5
87.2%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
+7.7pp
Won
Oakland under 81.5
88.0%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
+7.0pp
Won
Under 169.5
74.8%
1.36
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
+6.8pp
Lost
Under 168
72.2%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+5.9pp
Lost
Under 167
70.1%
1.45
Bet365
1.45
-
-
-
-
+5.9pp
Lost
Under 168.5
72.8%
1.38
Betano
1.39
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
+5.8pp
Lost
Under 167.5
70.7%
1.42
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.41
-
-
-
+5.8pp
Lost
Boise State +3.5
96.9%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+5.7pp
Won
Boise State -1.5
94.4%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+5.7pp
Won
Boise State over 71.5
96.1%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+5.0pp
Won
Boise State over 73.5
94.2%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+4.8pp
Won
Under 169
74.3%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+4.8pp
Lost
Boise State over 70.5
96.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.7pp
Won
Oakland under 80.5
86.0%
1.14
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
-
+4.6pp
Won
Boise State over 72.5
95.3%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.5pp
Won
Boise State over 75.5
91.5%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+4.0pp
Won
Boise State over 74.5
93.0%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+3.9pp
Won
Under 171.5
78.6%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+3.8pp
Lost
Boise State win
95.1%
1.05
Betano
1.06
Marathon Bet
1.05
Pinnacle
1.05
1xBet
1.04
Bet365
1.04
+3.6pp
Won
Boise State over 77.5
88.0%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+3.6pp
Won
Boise State over 78.5
85.8%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
+3.5pp
Won
Under 176.5
86.4%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
+3.3pp
Lost
Under 181.5
92.0%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+3.3pp
Lost
Boise State under 99.5
85.4%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
+3.1pp
Lost
Boise State under 95.5
74.2%
1.29
Betano
1.33
1xBet
1.25
-
-
-
+3.1pp
Lost
Boise State over 79.5
83.4%
1.15
Bet365
1.16
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
+3.0pp
Won
Boise State over 76.5
89.8%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+2.7pp
Won
Boise State over 82.5
74.8%
1.28
1xBet
1.29
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
+2.6pp
Won
Boise State under 100.5
87.6%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+2.5pp
Lost
Boise State under 96.5
77.4%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+2.1pp
Lost
Boise State under 98.5
83.0%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
+2.0pp
Lost
Boise State over 83.5
71.5%
1.31
Betano
1.33
1xBet
1.29
-
-
-
+1.7pp
Won
Boise State under 94.5
70.8%
1.31
Bet365
1.34
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.29
-
-
+1.4pp
Lost
Boise State over 80.5
80.8%
1.16
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
+0.7pp
Won
Oakland over 55.5
92.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-0.1pp
Won
Over 136.5
91.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-0.6pp
Won
Boise State under 97.5
80.3%
1.14
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
-
-1.1pp
Lost
Oakland over 57.5
88.8%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-2.0pp
Won
Over 141.5
85.8%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-3.6pp
Won
Oakland over 59.5
84.5%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-4.2pp
Won
Over 146.5
77.6%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-6.8pp
Won
Oakland over 61.5
79.2%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-6.9pp
Won
Oakland over 62.5
76.2%
1.12
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-7.0pp
Won
Oakland over 63.5
73.0%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
-8.0pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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