PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
Oklahoma State faces Central Arkansas on 16 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names Oklahoma State the clear favourite with an 84% win probability because the Cowboys have a 2-1 record, average 92.7 points per game and allow only 72.0, while Central Arkansas sits at 2-2, averages 84.5 points and concedes 70.0. Oklahoma State is 150th in the league and has won both of its home games, scoring 104.5 and allowing 64.0, whereas Central Arkansas has lost both of its road outings, averaging 63.0 points and conceding 85.5. Oklahoma State's last five games were 3-2, including a 118-68 home win over Queens Royals and a 91-60 win over Incarnate Word, while Central Arkansas went 2-3, losing to Arkansas 66-79 away, beating Ecclesia 127-54 at home, and falling 60-92 to Ole Miss away. The Pythia projection is 83-71, with a total of 154.0 points, and a 3% chance of overtime. The Cowboys are expected to cover the spread and the over is unlikely. The next contest will test Central Arkansas's road resilience against a dominant Oklahoma State offence.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 92.7 | 72.0 | 164.7 | +20.7 | 67% |
| Season at home (2) | 104.5 | 64.0 | 168.5 | +40.5 | 100% |
| Season away (1) | 69.0 | 88.0 | 157.0 | -19.0 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 87.2 | 83.8 | 171.0 | +3.4 | 50% |
| Last 5 (5) | 91.6 | 78.8 | 170.4 | +12.8 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (13) | 75.5 | 86.7 | 162.2 | -11.2 | 23% |
| vs Similar (13) | 87.5 | 84.8 | 172.4 | +2.7 | 62% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (4) | 95.2 | 69.0 | 164.2 | +26.2 | 100% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (4) | 84.5 | 70.0 | 154.5 | +14.5 | 50% |
| Season at home (2) | 106.0 | 54.5 | 160.5 | +51.5 | 100% |
| Season away (2) | 63.0 | 85.5 | 148.5 | -22.5 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 83.8 | 75.6 | 159.4 | +8.2 | 60% |
| Last 5 (5) | 86.2 | 75.6 | 161.8 | +10.6 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (2) | 66.0 | 87.5 | 153.5 | -21.5 | 0% |
| vs Similar (5) | 82.4 | 79.8 | 162.2 | +2.6 | 60% |
| vs Weaker (21) | 82.4 | 73.0 | 155.4 | +9.4 | 76% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 39.9 | 40.4 | 80.4 | -0.5 | 50% | - |
| Last 30 at home (16) | 41.6 | 39.1 | 80.7 | +2.6 | 56% | - |
| Last 30 away (14) | 38.0 | 42.0 | 80.0 | -4.0 | 43% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 42.9 | 38.4 | 81.3 | +4.5 | 70% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 46.0 | 36.2 | 82.2 | +9.8 | 80% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (13) | 35.0 | 44.8 | 79.8 | -9.8 | 15% | - |
| vs Similar (13) | 42.2 | 38.5 | 80.7 | +3.8 | 69% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (4) | 48.5 | 32.8 | 81.2 | +15.8 | 100% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 39.9 | 34.4 | 74.3 | +5.6 | 57% | - |
| Last 30 at home (16) | 42.3 | 29.9 | 72.2 | +12.4 | 81% | - |
| Last 30 away (14) | 37.2 | 39.4 | 76.6 | -2.2 | 29% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 39.0 | 34.2 | 73.2 | +4.8 | 60% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 40.6 | 34.8 | 75.4 | +5.8 | 60% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (2) | 27.5 | 47.0 | 74.5 | -19.5 | 0% | - |
| vs Similar (5) | 42.0 | 40.8 | 82.8 | +1.2 | 40% | - |
| vs Weaker (21) | 38.8 | 32.6 | 71.4 | +6.1 | 62% | - |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/11/26 | A | Texas A&M | 69-88 |
| 07/11/26 | H | Queens Royals | 118-68 |
| 03/11/26 | H | Incarnate Word | 91-60 |
| 12/03/26 | A | TCU | 88-95 |
| 11/03/26 | A | Colorado | 92-83 |
| 07/03/26 | H | Houston | 75-82 |
| 04/03/26 | A | UCF Knights | 111-104 OT |
| 28/02/26 | A | Cincinnati | 68-91 |
| 25/02/26 | H | West Virginia | 91-84 OT |
| 21/02/26 | A | Colorado | 69-83 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/26 | A | Arkansas | 66-79 |
| 11/11/26 | H | Ecclesia | 127-54 |
| 07/11/26 | A | Ole Miss | 60-92 |
| 03/11/26 | H | Oral Roberts | 85-55 |
| 08/03/26 | H | Queens Royals | 93-98 OT |
| 07/03/26 | H | Florida Gulf Coast | 73-63 |
| 06/03/26 | H | Bellarmine | 86-73 |
| 28/02/26 | H | Queens Royals | 84-79 |
| 26/02/26 | A | Austin Peay | 93-88 |
| 21/02/26 | A | Florida Gulf Coast | 71-75 OT |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWL | 67% |
| Home | WW | 100% |
| Away | L | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Win % | 67% | 100% | 0% |
| Points / game | 92.7 | 104.5 | 69.0 |
| Allowed / game | 72.0 | 64.0 | 88.0 |
| Point differential | +20.7 | +40.5 | -19.0 |
| Avg total | 164.7 | 168.5 | 157.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 67% | 100% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WLWL | 50% |
| Home | WW | 100% |
| Away | LL | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 2 | 2 |
| Win % | 50% | 100% | 0% |
| Points / game | 84.5 | 106.0 | 63.0 |
| Allowed / game | 70.0 | 54.5 | 85.5 |
| Point differential | +14.5 | +51.5 | -22.5 |
| Avg total | 154.5 | 160.5 | 148.5 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 50% | 100% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Baylor | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 95.3 | 59.7 | +35.7 |
| 2 |  West Virginia | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 85.7 | 53.3 | +32.3 |
| 3 |  Kansas | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 91.0 | 59.7 | +31.3 |
| 4 |  TCU | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 95.0 | 67.2 | +27.8 |
| 5 |  Texas Tech | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 81.0 | 53.8 | +27.2 |
| 6 |  Arizona State | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 85.5 | 63.2 | +22.2 |
| 7 |  Brigham Young | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 96.5 | 75.8 | +20.8 |
| 8 |  Utah Utes | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 72.7 | 61.3 | +11.3 |
| 9 |  UCF Knights | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 85.8 | 77.2 | +8.5 |
| 10 |  Cincinnati | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 79.0 | 63.0 | +16.0 |
| 11 |  Arizona | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 87.2 | 74.0 | +13.2 |
| 12 |  Houston | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 84.7 | 62.3 | +22.3 |
| 13 | Oklahoma State | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 92.7 | 72.0 | +20.7 |
| 14 |  Iowa State | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 81.0 | 61.3 | +19.7 |
| 15 |  Kansas State | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 83.3 | 76.0 | +7.3 |
| 16 |  Colorado | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 74.0 | 69.5 | +4.5 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Eastern Kentucky | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 97.0 | 66.5 | +30.5 |
| 2 |  Lipscomb | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60% | 74.8 | 76.4 | -1.6 |
| 3 |  Queens Royals | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60% | 89.2 | 100.2 | -11.0 |
| 4 | Central Arkansas | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 84.5 | 70.0 | +14.5 |
| 5 |  Austin Peay | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 80.0 | 68.2 | +11.8 |
| 6 |  North Alabama | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 69.8 | 79.0 | -9.2 |
| 7 |  Florida Gulf Coast | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 84.0 | 83.0 | +1.0 |
| 8 |  North Florida | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 64.8 | 85.8 | -21.0 |
| 9 |  Bellarmine | 5 | 1 | 4 | 20% | 70.4 | 83.8 | -13.4 |
| 10 |  West Georgia | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0% | 62.2 | 79.0 | -16.8 |
| 11 |  Stetson | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0% | 60.5 | 83.0 | -22.5 |
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