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Ole Miss vs Alcorn State Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 03 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 01:30
Final 99-58
52-31 47-27
Position#50
Record-
FormLWWWL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
Ole Miss 🏆
USA
Vs
93%
■ OLE 93%■ ALCO 7%
Pythia win probability
Projected 81-64
Projected total 144.3
Alcorn State
USA
Position#383
Record-
FormLWLWL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Meetings · Ole Miss v Alcorn State
02 Nov 2026
OLE 99
ALCO58
29 Dec 2025
OLE 79
ALCO43
07 Nov 2022
OLE 73
ALCO58
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Ole Miss faces Alcorn State on 2 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the Pythia model designating Ole Miss as the clear favourite, assigning it a 93% chance of victory largely because of their dominant season performance and high scoring average; Alcorn State receives only a 7% probability of winning. In the last five games, Ole Miss secured three wins and two losses, including a narrow 90-93 defeat to Arkansas and close victories over Alabama and Georgia, while Alcorn State won two and lost three, dropping to Prairie View A&M, beating Alabama State, and falling to Arkansas-Pine Bluff. Historically, Ole Miss has won both of the two meetings against Alcorn State, the most recent being a 79-43 triumph on 29 December 2025. Pythia projects an 81-64 score for the contest, with a total of 144.3 points; the over-148.5 line has a 40% chance of being hit, and the game has a 2% probability of going into overtime. The projected outcome underscores Ole Miss's offensive potency and Alcorn State's recent struggles, setting the stage for a decisive showdown.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Ole Miss winWon
92.8%fair 1.08
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Alcorn State winLost
7.2%fair 13.81
Best odds65.00
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 01 Nov 07:04 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Ole MissUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Texas A&M
#82
L
77-80
77
80
-3
A19/02
NCAA
Florida
#28
L
75-94
75
94
-19
H21/02
NCAA
LSU
#230
L
99-106 OT
99
106
-7
H26/02
NCAA
Auburn
#188
W
85-79
85
79
+6
A01/03
NCAA
Vanderbilt
#37
L
86-89 OT
86
89
-3
H04/03
NCAA
South Carolina
#278
L
61-64
61
64
-3
H07/03
NCAA
Texas
#135
W
76-66
76
66
+10
A11/03
NCAA
Georgia
#68
W
76-72
76
72
+4
A12/03
NCAA
Alabama
#48
W
80-79
80
79
+1
A13/03
NCAA
Arkansas
#36
L
90-93 OT
90
93
-3
A14/03
NCAA
1H
2H
38-33
39-47
32-43
43-51
42-41
40-41
38-37
47-42
37-33
39-43
28-34
33-30
41-30
35-36
34-20
42-52
47-41
33-38
36-37
43-42
162.7Avg total
80.5Scored
82.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)80.582.2162.7-1.740%
Last 5 (5)76.674.8151.4+1.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (19)74.180.8154.9-6.721%
vs Similar (9)76.076.2152.2-0.256%
vs Weaker (2)76.559.0135.5+17.550%
Alcorn StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Miss. Valley St.
#372
W
74-66
74
66
+8
A10/02
NCAA
Bethune-Cookman
#185
W
57-55
57
55
+2
H14/02
NCAA
Florida A&M
#245
L
78-86
78
86
-8
H17/02
NCAA
Jackson State
#306
W
83-65
83
65
+18
H21/02
NCAA
Texas Southern
#281
L
87-92 OT
87
92
-5
A27/02
NCAA
Prairie View A&M
#198
L
51-72
51
72
-21
A28/02
NCAA
Miss. Valley St.
#372
W
67-64
67
64
+3
H04/03
NCAA
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
#280
L
48-83
48
83
-35
H06/03
NCAA
Alabama State
#330
W
77-65
77
65
+12
A09/03
NCAA
Prairie View A&M
#198
L
56-65
56
65
-9
A10/03
NCAA
1H
2H
36-25
38-41
25-32
32-23
29-39
49-47
34-34
49-31
41-41
35-35
22-36
29-36
38-23
29-41
19-37
29-46
32-31
45-34
26-22
30-43
139.1Avg total
67.8Scored
71.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)67.871.3139.1-3.550%
Last 5 (5)59.869.8129.6-10.040%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (26)64.880.7145.5-15.923%
vs Similar (2)84.577.0161.5+7.550%
vs Weaker (2)70.565.0135.5+5.5100%
Over/Under 143.5Actual: Over 143.5
Over 143.5
51.7%
@ 1.61-10.4pp
Under 143.5
48.3%
@ 2.60+10.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.61
Betano
1.53
Bet365
1.45
Under
Bet365
2.60
Betano
2.30
Over/Under 148.5 · main lineActual: Over 148.5
Over 148.5
39.5%
@ 1.98-10.9pp
Under 148.5
60.5%
@ 1.90+10.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.98
WilliamHill
1.91
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Be
1.85
Pinnacle
1.85
Under
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Be
1.88
Pinnacle
1.88
1xBet
1.83
Betano
1.80
Over/Under 153.5Actual: Over 153.5
Over 153.5
28.3%
@ 2.62-7.2pp
Under 153.5
71.7%
@ 1.45+7.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.62
Bet365
2.60
Under
Bet365
1.45
Betano
1.42

📊 3. Team Totals

Ole Miss total 85.5Actual: Ole Miss over 85.5
Over 85.5
31.0%
@ 1.44-32.0pp
Under 85.5
69.0%
@ 2.45+32.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
Under
Betano
2.45
Ole Miss total 89.5 · main lineActual: Ole Miss over 89.5
Over 89.5
18.4%
@ 1.91-30.3pp
Under 89.5
81.6%
@ 1.84+30.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.91
WilliamHill
1.91
1xBet
1.90
Marathon Be
1.86
Bet365
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.84
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.80
1xBet
1.80
WilliamHill
1.80
Ole Miss total 93.5Actual: Ole Miss over 93.5
Over 93.5
no forecast
@ 2.67
Under 93.5
no forecast
@ 1.37
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.67
Under
Betano
1.37
Alcorn State total 54.5Actual: Alcorn State over 54.5
Over 54.5
no forecast
@ 1.37
Under 54.5
no forecast
@ 2.67
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.37
Under
Betano
2.67
Alcorn State total 58.5 · main lineActual: Alcorn State under 58.5
Over 58.5
69.5%
@ 1.85+18.8pp
Under 58.5
30.5%
@ 1.91-18.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
WilliamHill
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Under
WilliamHill
1.91
Marathon Be
1.87
Bet365
1.86
Betano
1.85
Alcorn State total 62.5Actual: Alcorn State under 62.5
Over 62.5
54.3%
@ 2.67+20.4pp
Under 62.5
45.7%
@ 1.37-20.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.67
Under
Betano
1.37

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Ole Miss -33Actual: Ole Miss -33
OLE -33
no forecast
@ 2.15
ALCO +33
no forecast
@ 1.62
Best 5 market prices
OLE
Bet365
2.15
ALCO
Bet365
1.62
Spread Ole Miss -30 · main lineActual: Ole Miss -30
OLE -30
no forecast
@ 1.84
ALCO +30
no forecast
@ 1.95
Best 5 market prices
OLE
Marathon Be
1.84
Bet365
1.80
ALCO
Bet365
1.95
Marathon Be
1.87
Spread Ole Miss -27Actual: Ole Miss -27
OLE -27
no forecast
@ 1.54
ALCO +27
no forecast
@ 2.35
Best 5 market prices
OLE
Bet365
1.54
ALCO
Bet365
2.35

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-4-2+0+2+41st half1st half: +2.4+2.41st half: -1.8-1.82nd half2nd half: -2.8-2.82nd half: -1.2-1.2
-4-2+0+2+41st half1st half: +2.4+2.41st half: -1.8-1.82nd half2nd half: -2.8-2.82nd half: -1.2-1.2
Ole MissAlcorn State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Ole MissLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Texas A&M
#82
W
38-33
38
33
+5
A19/02
NCAA
Florida
#28
L
32-43
32
43
-11
H21/02
NCAA
LSU
#230
W
42-41
42
41
+1
H26/02
NCAA
Auburn
#188
W
38-37
38
37
+1
A01/03
NCAA
Vanderbilt
#37
W
37-33
37
33
+4
H04/03
NCAA
South Carolina
#278
L
28-34
28
34
-6
H07/03
NCAA
Texas
#135
W
41-30
41
30
+11
A11/03
NCAA
Georgia
#68
W
34-20
34
20
+14
A12/03
NCAA
Alabama
#48
W
47-41
47
41
+6
A13/03
NCAA
Arkansas
#36
L
36-37
36
37
-1
A14/03
NCAA
72.2Avg total
37.3Scored
34.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 69.5
Last 30 (30)32.734.967.5-2.237%53%
Last 30 at home (14)33.235.969.1-2.743%57%
Last 30 away (16)32.233.966.1-1.831%50%
Last 10 (10)37.334.972.2+2.470%80%
Last 5 (5)37.232.469.6+4.860%60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (19)31.935.267.1-3.226%53%
vs Similar (9)33.634.668.1-1.056%56%
vs Weaker (2)35.533.569.0+2.050%50%
Alcorn StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Miss. Valley St.
#372
W
36-25
36
25
+11
A10/02
NCAA
Bethune-Cookman
#185
L
25-32
25
32
-7
H14/02
NCAA
Florida A&M
#245
L
29-39
29
39
-10
H17/02
NCAA
Jackson State
#306
D
34-34
34
34
+0
H21/02
NCAA
Texas Southern
#281
D
41-41
41
41
+0
A27/02
NCAA
Prairie View A&M
#198
L
22-36
22
36
-14
A28/02
NCAA
Miss. Valley St.
#372
W
38-23
38
23
+15
H04/03
NCAA
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
#280
L
19-37
19
37
-18
H06/03
NCAA
Alabama State
#330
W
32-31
32
31
+1
A09/03
NCAA
Prairie View A&M
#198
W
26-22
26
22
+4
A10/03
NCAA
62.2Avg total
30.2Scored
32.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 69.5
Last 30 (30)30.737.468.1-6.720%33%
Last 30 at home (10)31.533.164.6-1.620%20%
Last 30 away (20)30.439.569.9-9.220%40%
Last 10 (10)30.232.062.2-1.840%10%
Last 5 (5)27.429.857.2-2.460%0%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (26)29.938.067.8-8.115%35%
vs Similar (2)35.543.579.0-8.00%50%
vs Weaker (2)37.024.061.0+13.0100%0%
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half Spread Ole Miss -17.5 · main lineActual: Ole Miss -17.5
OLE -17.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
ALCO +17.5
no forecast
@ 1.95
1st half Over/Under 69.5 · main lineActual: Over 69.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.93
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
Ole Miss 1st half total 43.5 · main lineActual: Ole Miss over 43.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.89
Alcorn State 1st half total 25.5 · main lineActual: Alcorn State over 25.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.82
Under
no forecast
@ 1.88
1st half Spread Ole Miss -18.5Actual: Ole Miss -18.5
OLE -18.5
no forecast
@ 2.00
ALCO +18.5
no forecast
@ 1.80
1st half Spread Ole Miss -16.5Actual: Ole Miss -16.5
OLE -16.5
no forecast
@ 1.70
ALCO +16.5
no forecast
@ 2.12
1st half Over/Under 67.5Actual: Over 67.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.65
Under
no forecast
@ 2.10
1st half Over/Under 71.5Actual: Over 71.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.22
Under
no forecast
@ 1.57
1st half Spread Ole Miss -19.5Actual: Ole Miss -19.5
OLE -19.5
no forecast
@ 2.15
ALCO +19.5
no forecast
@ 1.62
1st half Spread Ole Miss -15.5Actual: Ole Miss -15.5
OLE -15.5
no forecast
@ 1.55
ALCO +15.5
no forecast
@ 2.27
1st half Over/Under 65.5Actual: Over 65.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.45
Under
no forecast
@ 2.50
1st half Over/Under 73.5Actual: Over 73.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.65
Under
no forecast
@ 1.42
1st half Spread Ole Miss -20.5Actual: Ole Miss -20.5
OLE -20.5
no forecast
@ 2.35
ALCO +20.5
no forecast
@ 1.52
1st half Spread Ole Miss -14.5Actual: Ole Miss -14.5
OLE -14.5
no forecast
@ 1.45
ALCO +14.5
no forecast
@ 2.52
1st half Spread Ole Miss -21.5Actual: Alcorn State +21.5
OLE -21.5
no forecast
@ 2.62
ALCO +21.5
no forecast
@ 1.42
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Ole Miss (regulation)
OLE
no forecast
@ 1.01
Draw
no forecast
@ 35.00
ALCO
no forecast
@ 16.50

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
OLE win + total 147.5
🔒 Pro
ALCO win + total 147.5
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: OLE leads at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: level at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: ALCO leads at half
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: close (1-10 points)
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: clear (11-20 points)
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: blowout (21+ points)
🔒 Pro
🔒 8 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Alcorn State +2474.3%3.10
Bet365
3.10		----+44.3ppLost
Alcorn State +2371.3%3.40
Bet365
3.40		----+44.1ppLost
Alcorn State +23.572.2%3.22
Betano
3.30
Bet365
3.15		---+43.5ppLost
Alcorn State +24.575.0%2.92
Betano
3.00
Bet365
2.85		---+43.5ppLost
Alcorn State +2577.1%2.75
Bet365
2.75		----+43.4ppLost
Ole Miss under 86.572.5%2.25
Betano
2.25		----+32.2ppLost
Ole Miss under 87.575.8%2.05
Betano
2.05		----+31.6ppLost
Ole Miss under 8981.1%1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85		----+31.1ppLost
Ole Miss under 89.581.6%1.81
Marathon Bet
1.84
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.80
1xBet
1.80
WilliamHill
1.80		+30.3ppLost
Ole Miss under 88.578.8%1.87
Betano
1.93
Marathon Bet
1.88
WilliamHill
1.85
Bet365
1.83		-+29.2ppLost
Ole Miss under 90.584.2%1.67
Betano
1.67		----+28.8ppLost
Ole Miss under 91.586.5%1.53
Betano
1.53		----+27.5ppLost
Alcorn State over 57.572.9%1.80
1xBet
1.90
WilliamHill
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Betano
1.70		-+21.8ppWon
Alcorn State over 5872.0%1.83
Marathon Bet
1.83		----+21.4ppPush
Alcorn State over 56.576.1%1.55
Betano
1.55		----+17.7ppWon
Alcorn State over 55.579.1%1.45
Betano
1.45		----+16.8ppWon
Under 15371.1%1.50
Bet365
1.50		----+8.6ppLost
Under 15473.2%1.43
Bet365
1.43		----+8.2ppLost
Under 15575.2%1.37
Bet365
1.37		----+7.7ppLost
Under 15677.2%1.33
Bet365
1.33		----+7.2ppLost
Under 153.571.7%1.44
Bet365
1.45
Betano
1.42		---+7.2ppLost
Under 154.573.7%1.39
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.37		---+7.0ppLost
Under 155.575.7%1.34
Bet365
1.34		----+6.2ppLost
Under 156.577.6%1.30
Bet365
1.30		----+6.2ppLost
Under 158.581.1%1.22
Bet365
1.22		----+4.9ppWon
Under 168.593.2%1.04
Bet365
1.04		----+3.5ppWon
Under 173.596.3%1.01
Bet365
1.01		----+3.5ppWon
Under 163.588.2%1.10
Bet365
1.10		----+2.7ppWon
Under 171.595.2%1.01
Bet365
1.01		----+2.4ppWon
Under 166.591.4%1.03
Bet365
1.03		----+1.2ppWon
Under 161.585.6%1.10
Bet365
1.10		----+0.1ppWon
Over 121.592.1%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----1.6ppWon
Over 123.590.1%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----2.7ppWon
Over 126.586.4%1.03
Bet365
1.03		-----3.8ppWon
Ole Miss over 68.588.9%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----4.8ppWon
Ole Miss over 69.586.9%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----5.9ppWon
Over 128.583.5%1.04
Bet365
1.04		-----6.1ppWon
Over 131.578.5%1.10
Bet365
1.10		-----7.0ppWon
Ole Miss over 70.584.7%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----8.1ppWon
Ole Miss over 71.582.2%1.02
Bet365
1.02		-----9.0ppWon
Over 133.574.7%1.10
Bet365
1.10		-----10.8ppWon
Ole Miss over 72.579.4%1.02
Bet365
1.02		-----11.7ppWon
Ole Miss over 73.576.5%1.04
Bet365
1.04		-----13.2ppWon
Ole Miss over 74.573.2%1.04
Bet365
1.04		-----16.1ppWon
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Ole Miss wins
0
Alcorn State wins
DateGameScore
30/12/25Ole Miss v Alcorn State79-43
08/11/22Ole Miss v Alcorn State73-58
Ole Misslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/03/26AArkansas90-93 OT
13/03/26AAlabama80-79
12/03/26AGeorgia76-72
11/03/26ATexas76-66
07/03/26HSouth Carolina61-64
04/03/26HVanderbilt86-89 OT
01/03/26AAuburn85-79
26/02/26HLSU99-106 OT
21/02/26HFlorida75-94
19/02/26ATexas A&M77-80
Alcorn Statelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
10/03/26APrairie View A&M56-65
09/03/26AAlabama State77-65
06/03/26HArkansas-Pine Bluff48-83
04/03/26HMiss. Valley St.67-64
28/02/26APrairie View A&M51-72
27/02/26ATexas Southern87-92 OT
21/02/26HJackson State83-65
17/02/26HFlorida A&M78-86
14/02/26HBethune-Cookman57-55
10/02/26AMiss. Valley St.74-66

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Ole Miss
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over 148.5---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
Alcorn State
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over 148.5---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Southeastern conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Vanderbilt110100%93.047.0+46.0
2 Mississippi St.110100%106.088.0+18.0
3 Georgia110100%78.062.0+16.0
4 Florida110100%77.067.0+10.0
5 Oklahoma1010%64.068.0-4.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Southwestern Athletic conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Prairie View A&M110100%86.065.0+21.0
2 Grambling St.110100%89.087.0+2.0
3 Bethune-Cookman1010%70.079.0-9.0
4 Southern Univ.1010%72.085.0-13.0
5 Jackson State1010%42.076.0-34.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Ole Miss524799
Alcorn State312758
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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