On 6 November 2026 the NCAA matchup pits Oregon State against California Baptist, with the model designating Oregon State as the favourite thanks to its 1-0 record, 102.0 points per game and only 61.0 allowed, placing it 45th in the league, while California Baptist sits 269th with a 0-1 record, 63.0 points per game and 71.0 allowed. Oregon State's lone game saw a 102-61 win over Weber State at home, and the team has won 3 of its last 5 games; California Baptist's recent outings include a 63-71 loss to North Florida at home, a 60-68 defeat to Kansas away and a 63-61 win over Utah Valley State away. Their only previous encounter ended with California Baptist defeating Oregon State 75-69 on 29 November 2025. Pythia projects an 82% chance for Oregon State to win versus 18% for California Baptist, with a projected score of 77-67 and a total of 144.0 points. The home line of -17.5 carries a 26% probability of covering, while the over/under 150.5 has a 34% chance of exceeding, and there is a 3% chance of overtime. The game will likely hinge on Oregon State's defensive dominance as shown by its 61.0 points allowed per game.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Oregon State winWon
82.1%fair 1.22
Best odds1.03
Implied94.3%
Edge-12.3pp
California Baptist winLost
17.9%fair 5.58
Best odds21.00
Implied5.7%
Edge+12.3pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 05 Nov 07:14 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Oregon State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 152.5Actual: Over 152.5
Over 152.5
29.8%
@ 1.57-31.7pp
Under 152.5
70.2%
@ 2.60+31.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.45
Under
Bet365
2.60
Betano
2.25
Over/Under 157.5 · main lineActual: Over 157.5
Over 157.5
20.3%
@ 1.93-29.6pp
Under 157.5
79.7%
@ 1.92+29.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.93
Bet365
1.89
Betano
1.87
Marathon Be
1.86
1xBet
1.86
Under
Bet365
1.92
Pinnacle
1.92
Betano
1.90
Marathon Be
1.87
1xBet
1.87
Over/Under 162.5Actual: Over 162.5
Over 162.5
12.9%
@ 2.67-22.6pp
Under 162.5
87.1%
@ 1.47+22.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.67
Bet365
2.55
Under
Bet365
1.47
Betano
1.40
📊 3. Team Totals
Oregon State total 83Actual: Oregon State over 83
Over 83
27.3%
Under 83
72.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oregon State total 87 · main lineActual: Oregon State over 87
Over 87
15.5%
@ 1.85-34.5pp
Under 87
84.5%
@ 1.85+34.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
Oregon State total 91Actual: Oregon State over 91
Over 91
7.7%
Under 91
92.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
California Baptist total 65Actual: California Baptist over 65
Over 65
56.7%
Under 65
43.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
California Baptist total 69 · main lineActual: California Baptist under 69
Over 69
40.5%
@ 1.85-9.5pp
Under 69
59.5%
@ 1.85+9.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
California Baptist total 73Actual: California Baptist under 73
Over 73
26.1%
Under 73
73.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Oregon State -23.5Actual: Oregon State -23.5
OREG -23.5
12.7%
@ 2.70-24.5pp
CALI +23.5
87.3%
@ 1.55+24.5pp
Best 5 market prices
OREG
Betano
2.70
Bet365
2.30
CALI
Bet365
1.55
Betano
1.40
Spread Oregon State -20.5 · main lineActual: Oregon State -20.5
OREG -20.5
18.7%
@ 1.94-31.0pp
CALI +20.5
81.3%
@ 1.91+31.0pp
Best 5 market prices
OREG
Pinnacle
1.94
Bet365
1.91
Betano
1.87
Marathon Be
1.86
1xBet
1.86
CALI
Betano
1.91
Pinnacle
1.91
Bet365
1.90
BetVictor
1.88
Marathon Be
1.87
Spread Oregon State -17.5Actual: Oregon State -17.5
OREG -17.5
26.4%
@ 1.78-34.1pp
CALI +17.5
73.6%
@ 2.42+34.1pp
Best 5 market prices
OREG
Betano
1.78
1xBet
1.73
Marathon Be
1.68
Pinnacle
1.58
Bet365
1.55
CALI
Pinnacle
2.42
Bet365
2.30
Betano
2.00
1xBet
2.00
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
Oregon StateCalifornia Baptist
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Oregon StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Washington State
#291
L
23-34
23
34
-11
H05/02
NCAA
Gonzaga
#9
L
34-38
34
38
-4
H07/02
NCAA
San Francisco
#191
W
50-28
50
28
+22
A13/02
NCAA
Seattle
#108
L
18-36
18
36
-18
A16/02
NCAA
Pepperdine
#347
L
36-42
36
42
-6
H22/02
NCAA
San Diego Toreros
#301
W
35-32
35
32
+3
H26/02
NCAA
Santa Clara
#39
L
33-38
33
38
-5
A01/03
NCAA
San Francisco
#191
L
30-32
30
32
-2
H09/03
NCAA
Gonzaga
#9
L
24-38
24
38
-14
A10/03
NCAA
Weber State
#379
W
43-35
43
35
+8
H03/11
NCAA
67.9Avg total
32.6Scored
35.3Allowed
1st half
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the half
Over 74.5
Last 30 (30)
33.0
35.5
68.5
-2.5
33%
33%
Last 30 at home (19)
33.0
34.4
67.4
-1.4
37%
21%
Last 30 away (11)
33.0
37.5
70.5
-4.5
27%
55%
Last 10 (10)
32.6
35.3
67.9
-2.7
30%
30%
Last 5 (5)
33.0
35.0
68.0
-2.0
40%
20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (19)
31.9
35.9
67.8
-3.9
26%
21%
vs Similar (8)
34.5
34.6
69.1
-0.1
50%
50%
vs Weaker ◀ (3)
35.7
35.7
71.3
+0.0
33%
67%
This opponent (California Baptist) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
This opponent (Oregon State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: Oregon State win
OREG win
no forecast
@ 1.16
CALI win
no forecast
@ 5.20
2nd half Spread Oregon State -7.5 · main lineActual: Oregon State -7.5
OREG -7.5
no forecast
@ 1.82
CALI +7.5
no forecast
@ 1.93
2nd half Over/Under 82.5 · main lineActual: Over 82.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.87
Under
no forecast
@ 1.87
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Oregon State (regulation)
OREG
no forecast
@ 1.19
Draw
no forecast
@ 23.00
CALI
no forecast
@ 5.10
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Oregon State under 83.5
73.6%
2.88
1xBet
3.25
Betano
2.50
-
-
-
+41.3pp
Lost
Oregon State under 84.5
76.8%
2.54
Bet365
2.80
Betano
2.27
-
-
-
+40.4pp
Lost
Oregon State under 82.5
70.2%
3.10
Bet365
3.45
Betano
2.75
-
-
-
+40.3pp
Lost
Oregon State under 89
88.9%
1.86
Marathon Bet
1.86
1xBet
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
+39.2pp
Lost
Oregon State under 87.5
84.9%
1.90
Pinnacle
2.04
Betano
1.91
Marathon Bet
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.83
+38.7pp
Lost
Oregon State under 88.5
87.1%
1.88
Pinnacle
1.93
Betano
1.90
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.83
-
+38.1pp
Lost
Oregon State under 89.5
89.1%
1.83
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.83
Betano
1.82
Pinnacle
1.81
+37.1pp
Lost
Oregon State under 88
86.8%
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
-
+36.8pp
Lost
Oregon State under 85.5
79.7%
2.12
Pinnacle
2.14
Betano
2.10
-
-
-
+35.8pp
Lost
Oregon State under 86.5
82.5%
2.20
1xBet
2.50
Bet365
2.30
Pinnacle
2.02
Betano
1.98
-
+35.6pp
Lost
California Baptist +19
78.4%
2.05
Pinnacle
2.19
Bet365
2.05
Marathon Bet
1.90
-
-
+34.7pp
Lost
Oregon State under 87
84.5%
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
-
-
-
-
+34.5pp
Lost
California Baptist +18.5
76.4%
1.98
Pinnacle
2.29
Bet365
2.12
Marathon Bet
1.93
Betano
1.90
1xBet
1.83
+34.5pp
Lost
Under 153
71.7%
2.50
Bet365
2.50
-
-
-
-
+34.2pp
Lost
California Baptist +17.5
73.6%
2.18
Pinnacle
2.42
Bet365
2.30
Betano
2.00
1xBet
2.00
-
+34.1pp
Lost
California Baptist +18
75.7%
2.16
Pinnacle
2.27
Bet365
2.22
Marathon Bet
2.00
-
-
+33.6pp
Lost
California Baptist +19.5
79.0%
1.92
Pinnacle
2.10
Betano
1.95
Bet365
1.95
Marathon Bet
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
+33.4pp
Lost
California Baptist +20
80.9%
1.94
Pinnacle
2.00
Bet365
1.94
Marathon Bet
1.92
1xBet
1.92
-
+33.0pp
Lost
Under 152.5
70.2%
2.42
Bet365
2.60
Betano
2.25
-
-
-
+31.7pp
Lost
Under 156
77.6%
1.99
Pinnacle
2.07
Bet365
2.05
Marathon Bet
1.84
-
-
+31.3pp
Lost
Under 153.5
72.2%
2.26
Bet365
2.40
Betano
2.12
-
-
-
+31.2pp
Lost
California Baptist +20.5
81.3%
1.89
Betano
1.91
Pinnacle
1.91
Bet365
1.90
BetVictor
1.88
Marathon Bet
1.87
+31.0pp
Lost
Under 155.5
76.2%
1.97
Pinnacle
2.12
Bet365
2.10
Betano
1.95
WilliamHill
1.91
Marathon Bet
1.89
+30.9pp
Lost
Under 156.5
78.0%
1.94
Bet365
2.02
Pinnacle
2.02
WilliamHill
2.00
Marathon Bet
1.93
1xBet
1.93
+30.4pp
Lost
Under 157
79.4%
1.93
Bet365
1.97
Pinnacle
1.96
Marathon Bet
1.90
1xBet
1.90
-
+30.4pp
Lost
California Baptist +21
83.2%
1.81
Marathon Bet
1.81
Pinnacle
1.81
1xBet
1.81
Bet365
1.80
-
+30.2pp
Lost
Under 157.5
79.7%
1.88
Bet365
1.92
Pinnacle
1.92
Betano
1.90
Marathon Bet
1.87
1xBet
1.87
+29.6pp
Lost
California Baptist +17
72.8%
2.30
Bet365
2.40
Pinnacle
2.21
-
-
-
+29.5pp
Lost
California Baptist +16.5
70.7%
2.29
Bet365
2.50
Pinnacle
2.31
Betano
2.07
-
-
+29.3pp
Lost
Under 158
81.1%
1.82
Pinnacle
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.82
1xBet
1.82
Bet365
1.80
-
+29.2pp
Lost
Oregon State under 92.5
93.7%
1.42
Bet365
1.50
1xBet
1.44
Betano
1.32
-
-
+29.2pp
Lost
Oregon State under 90.5
90.9%
1.47
Betano
1.47
-
-
-
-
+29.1pp
Lost
California Baptist +23
87.1%
1.58
Bet365
1.58
-
-
-
-
+28.7pp
Lost
Under 154
73.7%
2.20
Bet365
2.30
Pinnacle
2.10
-
-
-
+28.4pp
Lost
Under 158.5
81.4%
1.76
Pinnacle
1.81
WilliamHill
1.80
Marathon Bet
1.78
1xBet
1.78
Bet365
1.74
+28.4pp
Lost
California Baptist +21.5
83.5%
1.69
Marathon Bet
1.75
Bet365
1.74
Pinnacle
1.74
Betano
1.53
-
+28.4pp
Lost
Under 159
82.7%
1.73
Pinnacle
1.76
Marathon Bet
1.73
Bet365
1.71
-
-
+28.3pp
Lost
California Baptist +22
85.2%
1.68
Bet365
1.68
Pinnacle
1.68
-
-
-
+28.1pp
Lost
Under 155
75.7%
2.02
Bet365
2.15
Pinnacle
1.99
Marathon Bet
1.92
-
-
+28.1pp
Lost
Under 160
84.2%
1.64
Marathon Bet
1.64
Bet365
1.64
-
-
-
+27.8pp
Lost
Under 154.5
74.2%
2.06
Bet365
2.25
Pinnacle
2.04
Betano
2.00
Marathon Bet
1.95
-
+27.6pp
Lost
California Baptist +24
88.8%
1.52
Bet365
1.52
-
-
-
-
+27.5pp
Lost
Under 159.5
82.9%
1.67
Pinnacle
1.73
Marathon Bet
1.69
Bet365
1.68
Betano
1.57
-
+27.5pp
Lost
Oregon State under 91.5
92.4%
1.38
Betano
1.38
-
-
-
-
+26.9pp
Lost
Under 161
85.6%
1.57
Bet365
1.57
-
-
-
-
+26.7pp
Lost
California Baptist +22.5
85.5%
1.58
Bet365
1.64
Pinnacle
1.62
Betano
1.47
-
-
+26.4pp
Lost
Oregon State under 94.5
95.8%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+26.3pp
Lost
California Baptist +25
90.3%
1.43
Bet365
1.43
-
-
-
-
+25.3pp
Lost
Under 160.5
84.4%
1.56
Bet365
1.60
Betano
1.52
-
-
-
+25.1pp
Lost
California Baptist +23.5
87.3%
1.48
Bet365
1.55
Betano
1.40
-
-
-
+24.5pp
Lost
Under 162
86.9%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+24.4pp
Lost
Under 163
88.1%
1.45
Bet365
1.45
-
-
-
-
+23.9pp
Lost
Under 161.5
85.8%
1.50
Bet365
1.54
Betano
1.45
-
-
-
+23.9pp
Lost
California Baptist +24.5
88.9%
1.42
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.34
-
-
-
+23.3pp
Lost
Under 164
89.3%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+23.0pp
Push
Oregon State under 95.5
96.6%
1.25
1xBet
1.25
-
-
-
-
+22.9pp
Lost
Under 162.5
87.1%
1.44
Bet365
1.47
Betano
1.40
-
-
-
+22.6pp
Lost
Oregon State under 96.5
97.3%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+22.0pp
Won
Under 163.5
88.3%
1.39
Bet365
1.41
Betano
1.36
-
-
-
+21.6pp
Lost
Under 164.5
89.4%
1.36
Bet365
1.36
-
-
-
-
+21.3pp
Won
Under 165
90.3%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+20.9pp
Won
Under 165.5
90.4%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+20.0pp
Won
Oregon State under 98.5
98.3%
1.15
Bet365
1.16
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
+17.8pp
Won
Under 167.5
92.3%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+17.0pp
Won
Oregon State under 97.5
97.8%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
+14.8pp
Won
Oregon State under 100.5
98.9%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+14.6pp
Won
Oregon State under 102.5
99.4%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+11.9pp
Won
Under 172.5
95.6%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+11.8pp
Won
Under 170.5
94.5%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+10.7pp
Won
Oregon State under 104.5
99.6%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+10.0pp
Won
Under 177.5
97.7%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+8.7pp
Won
Under 175.5
97.0%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+8.0pp
Won
California Baptist under 72.5
71.6%
1.42
Betano
1.42
-
-
-
-
+7.8pp
Won
Under 182.5
98.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+6.5pp
Won
Under 180.5
98.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+6.2pp
Won
California Baptist under 73.5
74.7%
1.33
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
+5.8pp
Won
California Baptist under 74.5
77.7%
1.25
1xBet
1.25
-
-
-
-
+4.0pp
Won
California Baptist under 75.5
80.4%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
+2.6pp
Won
California Baptist under 77.5
85.2%
1.12
Bet365
1.13
1xBet
1.12
-
-
-
+2.5pp
Won
California Baptist under 78.5
87.2%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+2.2pp
Won
California Baptist under 79.5
89.1%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+1.9pp
Won
California Baptist over 51.5
93.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-0.3pp
Won
California Baptist over 53.5
90.4%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-1.1pp
Won
California Baptist over 55.5
86.6%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-2.8pp
Won
California Baptist over 57.5
81.8%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-5.4pp
Won
California Baptist over 59.5
76.1%
1.13
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-6.2pp
Won
California Baptist over 58.5
79.0%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-6.5pp
Won
Oregon State (regulation)
80.0%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Marathon Bet
1.02
-
-
-
-8.4pp
Won
Oregon State +1.5
83.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-8.5pp
Won
Oregon State win
82.1%
1.02
Betano
1.03
WilliamHill
1.02
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-12.3pp
Won
Over 130.5
79.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-13.4pp
Won
Oregon State -3.5
74.3%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-14.7pp
Won
Over 132.5
75.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-16.5pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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