The Oregon Ducks host the Montana Grizzlies on 2 November 2026 in a low-scoring NCAA contest where defensive intensity and a measured pace are expected to keep the scoreboard modest, with the model projecting a 74-71 finish. Oregon's recent form shows a 2-3 run in their last five games, including a 60-70 loss to Maryland at home on 10 March 2026 and an 85-79 victory over Washington on 7 March 2026, while Montana has a 3-2 record in their final five outings, highlighted by a 95-89 win at home over Northern Colorado on 9 March 2026 and a 75-72 road victory against Portland State on 10 March 2026. Historically the Ducks have dominated the series, winning all four meetings, most recently 79-48 on 8 November 2024. Pythia rates Oregon as the favourite with a 58% chance to win versus Montana's 42%, and the projected score of 74-71 yields a total of 144.8 points, well below the 151.5 over-under line that carries a 34% probability of the over. The home team line of -19.0 offers only a 7% chance of covering, and the game carries a 5% likelihood of overtime, with Oregon's defensive prowess likely keeping the contest within the projected range.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Oregon winWon
58.3%fair 1.72
Best odds1.03
Implied92.7%
Edge-34.4pp
Montana winLost
41.7%fair 2.40
Best odds16.00
Implied7.3%
Edge+34.4pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 01 Nov 07:04 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Oregon) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 146.5Actual: Over 146.5
Over 146.5
45.1%
@ 1.50-17.9pp
Under 146.5
54.9%
@ 2.62+17.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.44
Under
Bet365
2.62
Betano
2.40
Over/Under 151.5 · main lineActual: Over 151.5
Over 151.5
33.6%
@ 1.91-16.4pp
Under 151.5
66.4%
@ 1.92+16.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.91
Bet365
1.89
Betano
1.88
Marathon Be
1.87
WilliamHill
1.85
Under
Bet365
1.92
Pinnacle
1.91
Betano
1.88
Marathon Be
1.86
WilliamHill
1.85
Over/Under 156.5Actual: Under 156.5
Over 156.5
23.5%
@ 2.55-13.5pp
Under 156.5
76.5%
@ 1.47+13.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.55
Betano
2.45
Under
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.47
📊 3. Team Totals
Oregon total 81Actual: Oregon over 81
Over 81
22.5%
Under 81
77.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oregon total 85 · main lineActual: Oregon over 85
Over 85
12.4%
@ 1.85-38.0pp
Under 85
87.6%
@ 1.88+38.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.82
Under
Marathon Be
1.88
BetVictor
1.85
Oregon total 89Actual: Oregon under 89
Over 89
6.1%
Under 89
93.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montana total 63Actual: Montana over 63
Over 63
79.4%
Under 63
20.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montana total 67 · main lineActual: Montana over 67
Over 67
66.1%
@ 1.87+16.4pp
Under 67
33.9%
@ 1.85-16.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Montana total 71Actual: Montana under 71
Over 71
50.5%
Under 71
49.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Oregon -22Actual: Montana +22
OREG -22
4.6%
@ 2.25-36.5pp
MONT +22
95.4%
@ 1.57+36.5pp
Best 5 market prices
OREG
Bet365
2.25
MONT
Bet365
1.57
Spread Oregon -19 · main lineActual: Montana +19
OREG -19
7.3%
@ 1.88-43.8pp
MONT +19
92.7%
@ 1.96+43.8pp
Best 5 market prices
OREG
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathon Be
1.83
Bet365
1.80
MONT
Pinnacle
1.96
Marathon Be
1.88
Bet365
1.86
Spread Oregon -16Actual: Oregon -16
OREG -16
11.3%
@ 1.57-49.5pp
MONT +16
88.7%
@ 2.43+49.5pp
Best 5 market prices
OREG
Pinnacle
1.57
Bet365
1.54
MONT
Pinnacle
2.43
Bet365
2.35
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
OregonMontana
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Montana +11
78.3%
3.85
Bet365
3.85
-
-
-
-
+54.2pp
Lost
Montana +12
80.8%
3.50
Bet365
3.50
-
-
-
-
+54.2pp
Lost
Montana +13
83.1%
3.15
Bet365
3.15
-
-
-
-
+53.6pp
Lost
Montana +9.5
73.4%
4.50
Bet365
4.50
-
-
-
-
+52.9pp
Lost
Montana +10.5
76.2%
3.90
Bet365
3.90
-
-
-
-
+52.4pp
Lost
Montana +14
85.2%
2.80
Bet365
2.80
-
-
-
-
+52.2pp
Lost
Montana +11.5
78.8%
3.45
Bet365
3.65
Betano
3.25
-
-
-
+51.9pp
Lost
Montana +12.5
81.3%
3.10
Bet365
3.20
Betano
3.00
-
-
-
+51.4pp
Lost
Montana +15
87.1%
2.60
Bet365
2.60
-
-
-
-
+51.3pp
Lost
Montana +8.5
70.3%
4.75
Bet365
4.75
-
-
-
-
+50.8pp
Lost
Montana +13.5
83.5%
2.83
Bet365
2.90
Betano
2.75
-
-
-
+50.8pp
Lost
Montana +14.5
85.5%
2.60
Bet365
2.65
Betano
2.55
-
-
-
+49.8pp
Lost
Montana +16
88.7%
2.39
Pinnacle
2.43
Bet365
2.35
-
-
-
+49.5pp
Lost
Montana +15.5
87.3%
2.42
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.35
-
-
-
+48.9pp
Lost
Montana +16.5
88.9%
2.25
Pinnacle
2.33
Bet365
2.25
Betano
2.18
-
-
+47.9pp
Lost
Montana +17.5
90.4%
2.12
Pinnacle
2.24
Bet365
2.10
Betano
2.02
-
-
+47.5pp
Lost
Montana +17
90.2%
2.21
Pinnacle
2.22
Bet365
2.20
-
-
-
+47.2pp
Lost
Montana +18
91.6%
2.02
Pinnacle
2.15
Bet365
2.00
Marathon Bet
1.91
-
-
+47.0pp
Push
Oregon under 79.5
72.0%
3.52
Bet365
3.55
1xBet
3.50
-
-
-
+45.8pp
Lost
Montana +18.5
91.7%
1.95
Pinnacle
2.05
1xBet
2.00
Betfair
2.00
Betano
1.95
Bet365
1.95
+45.1pp
Won
Oregon under 80.5
75.2%
2.99
1xBet
3.25
Bet365
3.00
Betano
2.72
-
-
+44.2pp
Lost
Montana +19
92.7%
1.90
Pinnacle
1.96
Marathon Bet
1.88
Bet365
1.86
-
-
+43.8pp
Won
Oregon under 82.5
80.9%
2.42
Bet365
2.50
1xBet
2.50
Betano
2.27
-
-
+43.4pp
Lost
Oregon under 81.5
78.2%
2.63
Bet365
2.80
Betano
2.47
-
-
-
+43.4pp
Lost
Oregon under 83.5
83.5%
2.25
1xBet
2.38
Bet365
2.30
Betano
2.07
-
-
+43.2pp
Lost
Montana +19.5
92.8%
1.84
Pinnacle
1.88
Bet365
1.86
Betano
1.83
Marathon Bet
1.83
BetVictor
1.80
+41.5pp
Won
Montana +20
93.8%
1.76
Pinnacle
1.78
Marathon Bet
1.76
Bet365
1.74
-
-
+39.9pp
Won
Oregon under 86
89.5%
1.83
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.82
-
-
-
+39.1pp
Lost
Oregon under 85
87.6%
1.86
Marathon Bet
1.88
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
+38.0pp
Lost
Montana +20.5
93.8%
1.71
Betano
1.72
Bet365
1.71
Pinnacle
1.71
Marathon Bet
1.69
-
+37.8pp
Won
Oregon under 84.5
85.8%
1.94
Betano
1.95
Pinnacle
1.93
-
-
-
+36.8pp
Lost
Montana +21
94.6%
1.65
Bet365
1.66
Pinnacle
1.65
-
-
-
+36.5pp
Won
Montana +22
95.4%
1.57
Bet365
1.57
-
-
-
-
+36.5pp
Won
Oregon under 85.5
87.8%
1.83
BetVictor
1.88
WilliamHill
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Marathon Bet
1.83
Pinnacle
1.82
+35.9pp
Lost
Montana +22.5
95.5%
1.53
Bet365
1.54
Betano
1.52
-
-
-
+34.9pp
Won
Montana +21.5
94.7%
1.61
Bet365
1.62
Betano
1.60
Pinnacle
1.60
-
-
+34.8pp
Won
Oregon under 86.5
89.7%
1.75
Bet365
1.80
WilliamHill
1.80
Pinnacle
1.71
Betano
1.70
-
+34.7pp
Lost
Montana +23
96.1%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+33.6pp
Won
Oregon under 87.5
91.3%
1.55
Betano
1.55
-
-
-
-
+32.9pp
Won
Montana +23.5
96.1%
1.46
Bet365
1.47
Betano
1.45
-
-
-
+32.5pp
Won
Oregon under 88.5
92.7%
1.50
Bet365
1.52
1xBet
1.50
Betano
1.47
-
-
+31.0pp
Won
Montana +24
96.7%
1.41
Bet365
1.41
-
-
-
-
+31.0pp
Won
Montana +24.5
96.7%
1.38
Betano
1.39
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
+30.0pp
Won
Oregon under 89.5
94.0%
1.43
Bet365
1.47
1xBet
1.44
Betano
1.39
-
-
+29.4pp
Won
Montana +25
97.2%
1.35
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
-
+28.2pp
Won
Oregon under 90.5
95.0%
1.34
Bet365
1.36
Betano
1.32
-
-
-
+26.7pp
Won
Oregon under 91.5
95.9%
1.31
Bet365
1.33
1xBet
1.29
-
-
-
+25.1pp
Won
Under 154
72.1%
1.72
Pinnacle
1.80
Marathon Bet
1.71
Bet365
1.64
-
-
+19.3pp
Lost
Montana over 65.5
70.8%
1.79
Pinnacle
1.82
Betano
1.75
-
-
-
+18.9pp
Won
Under 155
74.1%
1.65
Pinnacle
1.72
Marathon Bet
1.67
Bet365
1.57
-
-
+18.9pp
Lost
Under 154.5
72.7%
1.67
Pinnacle
1.76
WilliamHill
1.73
Marathon Bet
1.67
Betano
1.60
Bet365
1.60
+18.7pp
Lost
Under 153
70.0%
1.72
Pinnacle
1.75
Marathon Bet
1.71
Bet365
1.71
-
-
+15.8pp
Lost
Montana over 64.5
74.0%
1.56
Betano
1.60
Bet365
1.52
-
-
-
+15.2pp
Won
Under 153.5
70.6%
1.72
WilliamHill
1.80
BetVictor
1.78
Pinnacle
1.71
Bet365
1.68
Betano
1.67
+15.2pp
Lost
Montana over 63.5
77.1%
1.50
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.50
1xBet
1.50
-
-
+14.6pp
Won
Under 155.5
74.6%
1.54
Bet365
1.54
Betano
1.53
-
-
-
+14.4pp
Lost
Under 160.5
83.0%
1.35
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
+14.2pp
Won
Montana over 61.5
82.6%
1.33
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
+13.9pp
Won
Under 157
77.8%
1.45
Bet365
1.45
-
-
-
-
+13.6pp
Won
Under 156
76.0%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+13.5pp
Push
Under 156.5
76.5%
1.47
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
+13.5pp
Won
Montana over 62.5
80.0%
1.38
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
+13.4pp
Won
Under 160
82.8%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+13.3pp
Won
Under 157.5
78.2%
1.42
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.41
-
-
-
+13.1pp
Won
Under 159.5
81.5%
1.35
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
+12.9pp
Won
Under 158
79.6%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+12.6pp
Won
Under 158.5
79.9%
1.37
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.36
-
-
-
+12.5pp
Won
Under 159
81.2%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+11.8pp
Won
Under 162.5
85.8%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+11.3pp
Won
Montana over 60.5
85.0%
1.25
1xBet
1.29
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
+11.1pp
Won
Montana over 59.5
87.2%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+11.0pp
Won
Under 161.5
84.5%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+9.2pp
Won
Montana over 57.5
90.8%
1.13
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
+9.0pp
Won
Montana over 58.5
89.1%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
+7.7pp
Won
Under 167.5
91.3%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+7.5pp
Won
Montana over 56.5
92.3%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+7.3pp
Won
Montana over 55.5
93.7%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
+7.0pp
Won
Under 166.5
90.3%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+5.9pp
Won
Under 172.5
94.9%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+5.9pp
Won
Under 171.5
94.3%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+4.9pp
Won
Under 176.5
96.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.5pp
Won
Montana under 84.5
89.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-3.8pp
Won
Montana under 82.5
86.2%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-5.3pp
Won
Montana under 83.5
88.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-5.5pp
Won
Over 126.5
86.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-6.3pp
Won
Montana under 81.5
84.0%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-7.5pp
Won
Montana under 80.5
81.6%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-8.0pp
Won
Over 127.5
85.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-8.6pp
Won
Montana under 79.5
79.0%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-10.7pp
Won
Over 131.5
78.6%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-11.0pp
Won
Montana under 78.5
76.1%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-11.8pp
Won
Over 132.5
76.8%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-13.4pp
Won
Montana under 77.5
73.1%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-14.5pp
Won
Oregon over 66.5
75.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-18.3pp
Won
Oregon over 67.5
72.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-20.5pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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