Ostrow Wielkopolski will face Dziki Warszawa in the Energa Basket Liga on 15 November 2026, with Dziki Warszawa the clear favourite as the Pythia model rates them 78% to win, reflecting their 5-1 record, 91.5 points per game and 74.5 allowed, and a league position of 2. Ostrow Wielkopolski, 13th with a 2-4 record, 76.8 points per game and 80.8 allowed, have struggled at home, going 0-2 with 67.0 points and 77.5 allowed, and have lost five of their last six games, including a 69-74 loss to Zielona Gora at home on 8 November. Dziki Warszawa, meanwhile, have won four of their last five, with recent home victories over Tartu Ulikool 91-84, Anwil Wloclawek 96-75 and MZT Skopje 89-66. The teams have met six times, with Dziki Warszawa winning five and the last meeting on 25 April 2026 ending 83-73 in their favour. Pythia projects a 80-88 score, 168.2 total points, a 6.5 home line with a 42% chance of the home team covering, a 169.0 total line with a 47% over probability, and a 4% overtime likelihood, underscoring Dziki Warszawa's dominance and Ostrow Wielkopolski's recent struggles.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ostrow Wielkopolski winLost
22.4%fair 4.46
Best odds3.52
Implied26.8%
Edge-4.4pp
Dziki Warszawa winWon
77.6%fair 1.29
Best odds1.33
Implied73.2%
Edge+4.4pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 13 Nov 18:31 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Ostrow Wielkopolski) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 163Actual: Under 163
Over 163
62.0%
@ 1.50-0.5pp
Under 163
38.0%
@ 2.50+0.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.50
Under
Bet365
2.50
Over/Under 168 · main lineActual: Under 168
Over 168
49.7%
@ 1.90-0.6pp
Under 168
50.3%
@ 1.92+0.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.90
1xBet
1.85
Marathon Be
1.85
SBO
1.81
Bet365
1.80
Under
Pinnacle
1.92
1xBet
1.86
Bet365
1.86
Marathon Be
1.86
SBO
1.85
Over/Under 173Actual: Under 173
Over 173
37.5%
@ 2.35-2.1pp
Under 173
62.5%
@ 1.54+2.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.35
Under
Bet365
1.54
Marathon Be
1.53
📊 3. Team Totals
Ostrow Wielkopolski total 74.5Actual: Ostrow Wielkopolski under 74.5
Over 74.5
69.2%
@ 1.29+0.3pp
Under 74.5
30.8%
@ 2.86-0.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.29
Under
1xBet
2.86
Ostrow Wielkopolski total 78.5 · main lineActual: Ostrow Wielkopolski under 78.5
Over 78.5
54.3%
@ 1.83-1.8pp
Under 78.5
45.7%
@ 2.15+1.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.54
Under
Betano
2.15
1xBet
1.97
Bet365
1.83
Ostrow Wielkopolski total 82.5Actual: Ostrow Wielkopolski under 82.5
Over 82.5
39.0%
@ 2.12-4.0pp
Under 82.5
61.0%
@ 1.62+4.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.12
1xBet
2.03
Under
Betano
1.62
1xBet
1.51
Dziki Warszawa total 84.5Actual: Dziki Warszawa under 84.5
Over 84.5
65.0%
@ 1.52+3.8pp
Under 84.5
35.0%
@ 2.45-3.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.52
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.44
Under
Betano
2.45
Bet365
2.40
1xBet
2.21
Dziki Warszawa total 88.5 · main lineActual: Dziki Warszawa under 88.5
Over 88.5
49.5%
@ 1.93+1.5pp
Under 88.5
50.5%
@ 1.83-1.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.93
Betano
1.90
1xBet
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Under
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.78
Marathon Be
1.76
1xBet
1.63
Dziki Warszawa total 92.5Actual: Dziki Warszawa under 92.5
Over 92.5
34.0%
@ 2.65-0.5pp
Under 92.5
66.0%
@ 1.43+0.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.65
Bet365
2.65
1xBet
2.57
Under
Bet365
1.43
Betano
1.40
1xBet
1.34
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Ostrow Wielkopolski +4.5Actual: Dziki Warszawa -4.5
OWI +4.5
34.8%
@ 2.35-5.1pp
DWA -4.5
65.2%
@ 1.57+5.1pp
Best 5 market prices
OWI
Pinnacle
2.35
Betano
2.25
Bet365
2.25
1xBet
2.23
DWA
Bet365
1.57
Pinnacle
1.56
Betano
1.55
Marathon Be
1.53
1xBet
1.47
Spread Ostrow Wielkopolski +7.5 · main lineActual: Dziki Warszawa -7.5
OWI +7.5
45.8%
@ 1.88-4.8pp
DWA -7.5
54.2%
@ 1.93+4.8pp
Best 5 market prices
OWI
Pinnacle
1.88
1xBet
1.86
Marathon Be
1.86
Betfair
1.83
Bet365
1.83
DWA
Pinnacle
1.93
1xBet
1.87
Marathon Be
1.87
SBO
1.85
Betano
1.85
Spread Ostrow Wielkopolski +10.5Actual: Dziki Warszawa -10.5
OWI +10.5
56.9%
@ 1.57-2.9pp
DWA -10.5
43.1%
@ 2.27+2.9pp
Best 5 market prices
OWI
Bet365
1.57
Betano
1.53
Marathon Be
1.52
1xBet
1.45
DWA
Betano
2.27
1xBet
2.26
Bet365
2.25
⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves
Quarter by quarter
Ostrow WielkopolskiDziki Warszawa
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Dziki Warszawa (regulation)
OWI
no forecast
@ 2.55
Draw
no forecast
@ 17.25
DWA
no forecast
@ 1.56
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Ostrow Wielkopolski +18.5
81.0%
1.28
Bet365
1.28
-
-
-
-
+8.7pp
Won
Ostrow Wielkopolski +18
80.5%
1.29
Bet365
1.29
-
-
-
-
+8.6pp
Won
Ostrow Wielkopolski +17
78.0%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+8.6pp
Won
Dziki Warszawa +1
79.1%
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
-
+7.7pp
Won
Dziki Warszawa -2
74.4%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+7.4pp
Won
Dziki Warszawa -1.5
75.3%
1.35
Bet365
1.36
Betano
1.34
-
-
-
+7.1pp
Won
Dziki Warszawa (regulation)
75.2%
1.32
1xBet
1.32
Betano
1.32
Marathon Bet
1.32
-
-
+6.7pp
Won
Dziki Warszawa +12.5
96.0%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+6.6pp
Won
Dziki Warszawa -1
77.0%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+6.6pp
Won
Dziki Warszawa +1.5
79.5%
1.26
Betano
1.26
-
-
-
-
+6.6pp
Won
Dziki Warszawa over 70.5
96.1%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+6.4pp
Won
Dziki Warszawa over 77.5
85.9%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
+6.4pp
Lost
Dziki Warszawa -3
70.8%
1.44
Bet365
1.44
-
-
-
-
+6.3pp
Won
Dziki Warszawa over 68.5
97.4%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+6.3pp
Won
Dziki Warszawa +2.5
82.3%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+6.1pp
Won
Dziki Warszawa +17.5
98.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+6.0pp
Won
Dziki Warszawa -2.5
71.7%
1.38
Bet365
1.41
Betano
1.40
1xBet
1.32
-
-
+6.0pp
Won
Dziki Warszawa over 78.5
83.6%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
+5.8pp
Lost
Dziki Warszawa over 72.5
94.1%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+5.8pp
Won
Dziki Warszawa over 67.5
98.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.7pp
Won
Dziki Warszawa over 76.5
88.0%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
+5.7pp
Lost
Dziki Warszawa +7.5
91.2%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+5.6pp
Won
Ostrow Wielkopolski under 87.5
77.5%
1.29
Bet365
1.29
-
-
-
-
+5.6pp
Won
Dziki Warszawa over 66.5
98.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.6pp
Won
Ostrow Wielkopolski under 91.5
86.9%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
+5.5pp
Won
Dziki Warszawa over 80.5
78.3%
1.27
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
-
+5.5pp
Lost
Ostrow Wielkopolski under 97.5
95.1%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+5.4pp
Won
Ostrow Wielkopolski under 90.5
84.9%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
+5.4pp
Won
Dziki Warszawa over 74.5
91.5%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
+5.4pp
Lost
Dziki Warszawa over 81.5
75.3%
1.27
1xBet
1.27
-
-
-
-
+5.2pp
Lost
Ostrow Wielkopolski under 85.5
71.5%
1.37
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.40
1xBet
1.32
-
-
+5.2pp
Won
Dziki Warszawa over 82.5
72.0%
1.35
Bet365
1.38
1xBet
1.32
-
-
-
+5.1pp
Lost
Ostrow Wielkopolski under 89.5
82.7%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
+4.9pp
Won
Ostrow Wielkopolski under 93.5
90.4%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+4.8pp
Won
Over 159
71.1%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+4.8pp
Lost
Ostrow Wielkopolski under 95.5
93.1%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+4.8pp
Won
Ostrow Wielkopolski under 86.5
74.6%
1.27
1xBet
1.27
-
-
-
-
+4.7pp
Won
Dziki Warszawa win
77.6%
1.30
WilliamHill
1.33
1xBet
1.31
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Marathon Bet
1.30
+4.4pp
Won
Overtime: no
96.0%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.3pp
Won
Under 193.5
93.4%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+4.0pp
Won
Ostrow Wielkopolski +16
75.3%
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
-
+3.9pp
Won
Dziki Warszawa under 96.5
79.1%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+3.8pp
Won
Over 143.5
93.3%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+3.7pp
Lost
Ostrow Wielkopolski +16.5
76.0%
1.28
Bet365
1.28
-
-
-
-
+3.6pp
Won
Ostrow Wielkopolski +22.5
88.7%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+3.2pp
Won
Under 183.5
82.5%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
+3.0pp
Won
Under 188.5
89.0%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
+2.9pp
Won
Under 178.5
73.9%
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
-
+2.5pp
Won
Dziki Warszawa under 94.5
72.9%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+2.5pp
Won
Ostrow Wielkopolski +17.5
78.6%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+2.4pp
Won
Ostrow Wielkopolski over 69.5
84.1%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
+1.8pp
Lost
Over 148.5
88.3%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
+1.7pp
Lost
Over 153.5
81.1%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
+1.6pp
Lost
Ostrow Wielkopolski over 70.5
81.6%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
+1.1pp
Lost
Ostrow Wielkopolski over 71.5
78.8%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
+1.0pp
Lost
Ostrow Wielkopolski +15
72.4%
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
-
+1.0pp
Won
Ostrow Wielkopolski +15.5
73.2%
1.27
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.25
-
-
-
+0.3pp
Won
Over 158.5
71.7%
1.29
Bet365
1.29
-
-
-
-
-0.2pp
Lost
Ostrow Wielkopolski +14.5
70.2%
1.31
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.29
-
-
-
-0.2pp
Won
Ostrow Wielkopolski over 73.5
72.6%
1.27
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
-
-0.5pp
Lost
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They take 62.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
They take 68.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Their opponents take 65.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 49% of those shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
Dziki Warszawatheir opponents' shots (defence), last 10 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Dziki Warszawa: 79.2 points a game allowed
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀27%
🏀24%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.2 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.0 pts a game · 27% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.0 pts a game · 24% of the points
League average for comparison: 82.4 points a game
48%
33%
19%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
40.0
19.6
49.0%
54.3%
39.2
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
25.0
7.0
28.0%
32.9%
21.0
🏀Free throws
25.9
19.0
73.4%
71.3%
19.0
Their opponents take 65.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of those shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
They take 62.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
They take 66.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Their opponents take 64.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of those shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
Dziki Warszawatheir opponents' shots (defence), last 30 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Dziki Warszawa: 83.5 points a game allowed
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀22%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.7 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.6 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.3 pts a game · 22% of the points
League average for comparison: 82.4 points a game
48%
33%
19%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
38.4
19.8
51.6%
54.3%
39.7
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
25.9
8.5
32.9%
32.9%
25.6
🏀Free throws
25.2
18.3
72.5%
71.3%
18.3
Their opponents take 64.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of those shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
💪 9. Team Strengths
Side by side
Last 10/10 games with a box score before 15 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Ostrow Wielkopolski
LLLWLWLWLL
Dziki Warszawa
WWWWLWWLWW
#13
League position
#2
-2.2
Net rating
+9.5
90.8
Offensive rating
97.0
93.0
Defensive rating
87.5
49.2%
Effective FG%
53.7%
50.5%
Opp. effective FG%
46.3%
16.2%
Turnover %
14.8%
0.40
Free-throw rate
0.31
28.2%
3-point %
29.0%
60.3%
Assist %
71.4%
30%
Form (last 10/10)
80%
Profile
■ Ostrow Wielkopolski■ Dziki Warszawa
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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