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Paderborn vs Bayreuth Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 08 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 15:00
Projected 88-83
Projected total 171.4
Final 100-98 (OT)
18-27 20-29 28-16 18-12 16-14
Position#11
Record2-5
FormLLLWL
Points / game79.6
Allowed / game80.3
Vs
69%
31%
■ PAD 69%■ BAR 31%
Pythia win probability
Position#18
Record1-6
FormLLLLW
Points / game87.9
Allowed / game98.1
GermanyPro ARound 8· Sportzentrum Maspernplatz
Other2026-27
Meetings · Paderborn v Bayreuth
08 Nov 2026
PAD100
BAR98
27 Sep 2025
PAD73
BAR94
13 Jan 2024
PAD84
BAR80
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Paderborn hosts Bayreuth on 8 November 2026 in the Pro A, with the Pythia model naming Paderborn the favourite and predicting a 69% chance of victory, 31% for Bayreuth, and a projected score of 88-83 that totals 171.4 points; the home team's line is -4.5 with a 55% chance of covering, the over line is 172.0 with a 48% probability, and an overtime probability of 5%. Paderborn's season record stands at 2-5, scoring 79.6 points per game and allowing 80.3, while Bayreuth is 1-6, averaging 87.9 points and conceding 98.1; in their last five games each team has won only once. At home Paderborn is 2-2, averaging 84.0 points and 78.2 allowed, and their recent results include a 83-71 win over OrangeAcademy at home and losses to Crailsheim Merlins and Kirchheim; Bayreuth's road record is 0-3, with an 87.7 points per game and 106.0 allowed, and their recent outings feature a 98-83 win over Bochum and defeats to Koln and Artland. The teams have met four times, each winning twice, with Paderborn's last win being 103-92 on 17 January 2026.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Paderborn winWon
69.0%fair 1.45
Best odds1.44
Implied66.5%
Edge+2.5pp
Bayreuth winLost
31.0%fair 3.23
Best odds2.76
Implied33.5%
Edge-2.5pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 07 Nov 07:12 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

PaderbornGermanyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Kirchheim
#5
W
92-81
92
81
+11
A18/04
Pro A
Tubingen
#13
L
70-105
70
105
-35
H25/04
Pro A
PS Karlsruhe
#9
L
74-89
74
89
-15
A02/05
Pro A
Bochum
#16
L
77-81
77
81
-4
H26/09
Pro A
Koln
#6
W
90-73
90
73
+17
H02/10
Pro A
Bremerhaven
#5
L
81-84
81
84
-3
A04/10
Pro A
Koblenz
#13
L
86-88
86
88
-2
H10/10
Pro A
Kirchheim
#1
L
82-100
82
100
-18
A17/10
Pro A
OrangeAcademy
#14
W
83-71
83
71
+12
H24/10
Pro A
Crailsheim Merlins
#2
L
58-65
58
65
-7
A31/10
Pro A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-22
16-11
23-20
28-28
18-24
18-28
19-31
15-22
15-30
24-10
12-25
23-24
15-19
15-16
20-21
27-25
29-16
15-21
24-13
22-23
25-27
17-19
26-21
13-17
23-15
20-23
25-29
18-21
26-27
19-25
18-22
19-26
23-20
22-21
16-25
22-5
17-15
15-13
15-9
11-28
163.0Avg total
79.3Scored
83.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)79.680.3159.9-0.729%
Season at home (4)84.078.2162.2+5.850%
Season away (3)73.783.0156.7-9.30%
Last 10 (10)79.383.7163.0-4.430%
Last 5 (5)78.081.6159.6-3.620%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (16)79.990.1169.9-10.225%
vs Similar (11)81.085.3166.3-4.345%
vs Weaker ◀ (3)83.375.0158.3+8.367%
This opponent (Bayreuth) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BayreuthGermanyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Phoenix Hagen
#1
L
91-95
91
95
-4
H18/04
Pro A
Koblenz
#14
W
89-75
89
75
+14
A26/04
Pro A
Bochum
#11
W
103-88
103
88
+15
H02/05
Pro A
Koblenz
#13
L
90-109
90
109
-19
A27/09
Pro A
PS Karlsruhe
#15
L
79-89
79
89
-10
H02/10
Pro A
Kirchheim
#1
L
75-104
75
104
-29
A04/10
Pro A
OrangeAcademy
#14
L
89-100
89
100
-11
H14/10
Pro A
Artland
#10
L
86-97
86
97
-11
H17/10
Pro A
Koln
#6
L
98-105
98
105
-7
A25/10
Pro A
Bochum
#16
W
98-83
98
83
+15
H30/10
Pro A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
22-27
22-20
19-22
28-26
21-17
17-15
25-28
26-15
22-17
28-28
28-24
25-19
24-30
18-27
28-27
20-25
17-23
23-17
14-22
25-27
17-24
17-26
26-21
15-33
20-32
20-27
31-27
18-14
18-27
20-20
24-28
24-22
18-24
23-35
28-21
29-25
17-23
18-24
29-16
34-20
184.3Avg total
89.8Scored
94.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)87.998.1186.0-10.314%
Season at home (4)88.092.2180.2-4.225%
Season away (3)87.7106.0193.7-18.30%
Last 10 (10)89.894.5184.3-4.730%
Last 5 (5)89.297.8187.0-8.620%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (13)84.493.4177.8-9.031%
vs Similar (13)85.181.9167.0+3.246%
vs Weaker (4)81.587.8169.2-6.250%
This opponent (Paderborn) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 166.5Actual: Over 166.5
Over 166.5
60.8%
@ 1.47-1.9pp
Under 166.5
39.2%
@ 2.47+1.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
Under
Betano
2.47
Over/Under 171.75 · main lineActual: Over 171.75
Over 171.75
no forecast
@ 1.79
Under 171.75
no forecast
@ 1.81
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.79
Under
1xBet
1.81
Over/Under 176.5Actual: Over 176.5
Over 176.5
37.0%
@ 2.27-3.2pp
Under 176.5
63.0%
@ 1.53+3.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.27
Under
Betano
1.53
Marathon Be
1.53

📊 3. Team Totals

Paderborn total 84.5Actual: Paderborn over 84.5
Over 84.5
65.1%
@ 1.42+1.6pp
Under 84.5
34.9%
@ 2.60-1.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.40
Under
Betano
2.60
1xBet
2.33
Paderborn total 88.5 · main lineActual: Paderborn over 88.5
Over 88.5
49.8%
@ 1.88-0.2pp
Under 88.5
50.2%
@ 1.85+0.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.88
Bet365
1.83
Marathon Be
1.83
Betano
1.82
1xBet
1.74
Under
Betano
1.85
BetVictor
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Marathon Be
1.83
1xBet
1.70
Paderborn total 92.5Actual: Paderborn over 92.5
Over 92.5
34.5%
@ 2.52-1.9pp
Under 92.5
65.5%
@ 1.44+1.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.52
1xBet
2.41
Under
Betano
1.44
1xBet
1.38
Bayreuth total 79.5Actual: Bayreuth over 79.5
Over 79.5
62.2%
@ 1.42-1.7pp
Under 79.5
37.8%
@ 2.57+1.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.38
Under
Betano
2.57
1xBet
2.40
Bayreuth total 83.5 · main lineActual: Bayreuth over 83.5
Over 83.5
47.0%
@ 1.86-3.3pp
Under 83.5
53.0%
@ 1.91+3.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.86
Betano
1.82
Marathon Be
1.82
BetVictor
1.80
1xBet
1.71
Under
BetVictor
1.91
Betano
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
Bet365
1.80
1xBet
1.73
Bayreuth total 87.5Actual: Bayreuth over 87.5
Over 87.5
32.3%
@ 2.52-4.6pp
Under 87.5
67.7%
@ 1.44+4.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.52
1xBet
2.34
Under
Betano
1.44
1xBet
1.40

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Paderborn -8Actual: Bayreuth +8
PAD -8
41.6%
BAR +8
58.4%
Best 5 market prices
PAD
No market prices yet.
BAR
No market prices yet.
Spread Paderborn -5 · main lineActual: Bayreuth +5
PAD -5
53.3%
@ 1.88+2.9pp
BAR +5
46.7%
@ 1.88-2.9pp
Best 5 market prices
PAD
SBO
1.88
Pinnacle
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
1xBet
1.83
BAR
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathon Be
1.82
1xBet
1.82
SBO
1.78
Spread Paderborn -2Push
PAD -2
64.9%
@ 1.52
BAR +2
35.1%
Best 5 market prices
PAD
Marathon Be
1.52
BAR
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +0.1+0.1Q1: -4.8-4.8Q2Q2: -0.6-0.6Q2: -3.3-3.3Q3Q3: -1.8-1.8Q3: +1.6+1.6Q4Q4: -2.1-2.1Q4: +1.8+1.8
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +0.1+0.1Q1: -4.8-4.8Q2Q2: -0.6-0.6Q2: -3.3-3.3Q3Q3: -1.8-1.8Q3: +1.6+1.6Q4Q4: -2.1-2.1Q4: +1.8+1.8
PaderbornBayreuth
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
PaderbornLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Kirchheim
#5
W
41-33
41
33
+8
A18/04
Pro A
Tubingen
#13
L
36-52
36
52
-16
H25/04
Pro A
PS Karlsruhe
#9
L
39-40
39
40
-1
A02/05
Pro A
Bochum
#16
L
30-35
30
35
-5
H26/09
Pro A
Koln
#6
W
44-37
44
37
+7
H02/10
Pro A
Bremerhaven
#5
L
42-46
42
46
-4
A04/10
Pro A
Koblenz
#13
W
43-38
43
38
+5
H10/10
Pro A
Kirchheim
#1
L
45-52
45
52
-7
A17/10
Pro A
OrangeAcademy
#14
W
45-41
45
41
+4
H24/10
Pro A
Crailsheim Merlins
#2
W
32-28
32
28
+4
A31/10
Pro A
79.9Avg total
39.7Scored
40.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 85.75
Last 30 (30)40.543.083.5-2.550%47%
Last 30 at home (16)40.943.484.4-2.544%50%
Last 30 away (14)40.042.582.5-2.557%43%
Last 10 (10)39.740.279.9-0.550%40%
Last 5 (5)41.441.082.4+0.460%60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (16)39.543.783.2-4.244%44%
vs Similar (11)42.243.585.6-1.355%55%
vs Weaker ◀ (3)39.737.777.3+2.067%33%
This opponent (Bayreuth) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BayreuthLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Phoenix Hagen
#1
L
44-47
44
47
-3
H18/04
Pro A
Koblenz
#14
W
38-32
38
32
+6
A26/04
Pro A
Bochum
#11
W
50-45
50
45
+5
H02/05
Pro A
Koblenz
#13
L
42-57
42
57
-15
A27/09
Pro A
PS Karlsruhe
#15
D
40-40
40
40
+0
H02/10
Pro A
Kirchheim
#1
L
34-50
34
50
-16
A04/10
Pro A
OrangeAcademy
#14
L
40-59
40
59
-19
H14/10
Pro A
Artland
#10
L
38-47
38
47
-9
H17/10
Pro A
Koln
#6
L
41-59
41
59
-18
A25/10
Pro A
Bochum
#16
L
35-47
35
47
-12
H30/10
Pro A
88.5Avg total
40.2Scored
48.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 85.75
Last 30 (30)39.144.083.1-4.930%37%
Last 30 at home (14)41.943.885.7-1.936%43%
Last 30 away (16)36.644.280.9-7.625%31%
Last 10 (10)40.248.388.5-8.120%50%
Last 5 (5)37.652.490.0-14.80%40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (13)37.547.084.5-9.515%46%
vs Similar (13)40.240.480.5-0.246%23%
vs Weaker (4)40.846.287.0-5.525%50%
This opponent (Paderborn) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winnerActual: Bayreuth win
PAD win
no forecast
@ 1.54
BAR win
no forecast
@ 2.53
1st half Spread Paderborn -2.5 · main lineActual: Bayreuth +2.5
PAD -2.5
no forecast
@ 1.88
BAR +2.5
no forecast
@ 1.93
1st half Over/Under 85.75 · main lineActual: Over 85.75
Over
no forecast
@ 1.80
Under
no forecast
@ 1.81
Paderborn 1st half total 44.5 · main lineActual: Paderborn under 44.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.91
Under
no forecast
@ 1.83
Bayreuth 1st half total 41.5 · main lineActual: Bayreuth over 41.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.87
Under
no forecast
@ 1.83
1st half: PAD + total 85.5
PAD & over
no forecast
@ 3.00
PAD & under
no forecast
@ 3.20
1st half: Draw + total 85.5
Draw & over
no forecast
@ 29.00
Draw & under
no forecast
@ 31.00
1st half: BAR + total 85.5
BAR & over
no forecast
@ 4.50
BAR & under
no forecast
@ 4.75
1st half Over/Under 84.5Actual: Over 84.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 2.08
1st half Spread Paderborn -3.5Actual: Bayreuth +3.5
PAD -3.5
no forecast
@ 2.00
BAR +3.5
no forecast
@ 1.78
1st half Spread Paderborn -1.5Actual: Bayreuth +1.5
PAD -1.5
no forecast
@ 1.70
BAR +1.5
no forecast
@ 2.10
1st half Over/Under 87.5Actual: Over 87.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.12
Under
no forecast
@ 1.67
1st half Spread Paderborn -4.5Actual: Bayreuth +4.5
PAD -4.5
no forecast
@ 2.15
BAR +4.5
no forecast
@ 1.65
1st half Spread Paderborn -5.5Actual: Bayreuth +5.5
PAD -5.5
no forecast
@ 2.35
BAR +5.5
no forecast
@ 1.55
1st half Spread Paderborn -6.5Actual: Bayreuth +6.5
PAD -6.5
no forecast
@ 2.43
BAR +6.5
no forecast
@ 1.40
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Draw after regulation
PAD
no forecast
@ 1.60
Draw
no forecast
@ 17.50
BAR
no forecast
@ 2.47

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
PAD win + total 171.5
🔒 Pro
BAR win + total 171.5
🔒 Pro
Overtime
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: PAD leads at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: level at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: BAR leads at half
🔒 Pro
Highest-scoring quarter: 1st half
🔒 Pro
Highest-scoring quarter: 2nd half
🔒 Pro
Team with the highest-scoring quarter
🔒 Pro
Highest-scoring half
🔒 Pro
Double chance (regulation)
🔒 Pro
Quarters won (PAD:BAR): PAD wins more
🔒 Pro
🔒 12 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Bayreuth under 89.574.1%1.29
1xBet
1.29
----+5.5ppLost
Bayreuth under 88.571.0%1.34
1xBet
1.34
----+5.3ppLost
Paderborn +3.577.3%1.27
Betano
1.27
----+5.1ppWon
Paderborn +2.574.9%1.32
Betano
1.32
----+5.1ppWon
Bayreuth +13.575.8%1.29
Betano
1.29
----+4.9ppWon
Overtime: no95.2%1.02
Betano
1.02
----+3.7pp-
Paderborn over 82.572.1%1.29
1xBet
1.29
----+3.3ppWon
Paderborn +1.571.4%1.33
Betano
1.37
1xBet
1.29
---+3.2ppWon
Paderborn under 94.572.4%1.28
1xBet
1.28
----+2.8ppLost
Bayreuth +12.573.0%1.29
Betano
1.29
----+2.1ppWon
Bayreuth +11.570.0%1.34
Betano
1.34
----+1.6ppWon
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Paderborntheir own shots, last 10 games
No box scores for this team yet.
Bayreuththeir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Bayreuth: 80.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀40%
🏀🏀🏀42%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers32.0 pts a game · 40% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.9 pts a game · 42% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.1 pts a game · 18% of the points

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers30.016.0
53.3%
-32.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.811.3
37.9%
-33.9
🏀 Free throws19.814.1
71.2%
-14.1
They take 59.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 50% of their shots are threes. Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Paderborn wins
2
Bayreuth wins
DateGameScore
17/01/26Bayreuth v Paderborn92-103
27/09/25Paderborn v Bayreuth73-94
20/04/24Bayreuth v Paderborn88-78
13/01/24Paderborn v Bayreuth84-80
Paderbornlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
31/10/26ACrailsheim Merlins58-65
24/10/26HOrangeAcademy83-71
17/10/26AKirchheim82-100
10/10/26HKoblenz86-88
04/10/26ABremerhaven81-84
02/10/26HKoln90-73
26/09/26HBochum77-81
02/05/26APS Karlsruhe74-89
25/04/26HTubingen70-105
18/04/26AKirchheim92-81
Bayreuthlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
30/10/26HBochum98-83
25/10/26AKoln98-105
17/10/26HArtland86-97
14/10/26HOrangeAcademy89-100
04/10/26AKirchheim75-104
02/10/26HPS Karlsruhe79-89
27/09/26AKoblenz90-109
02/05/26HBochum103-88
26/04/26AKoblenz89-75
18/04/26HPhoenix Hagen91-95

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Paderborn
Pro A 2026-27
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLWL29%
HomeLWLW50%
AwayLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games743
Win %29%50%0%
Points / game79.684.073.7
Allowed / game80.378.283.0
Point differential-0.7+5.8-9.3
Avg total159.9162.2156.7
Over 171.7529%25%33%
Win by 10+29%50%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (3)0% (2)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Bayreuth
Pro A 2026-27
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLW14%
HomeLLLW25%
AwayLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games743
Win %14%25%0%
Points / game87.988.087.7
Allowed / game98.192.2106.0
Point differential-10.3-4.2-18.3
Avg total186.0180.2193.7
Over 171.7586%75%100%
Win by 10+14%25%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Kirchheim770100%93.175.4+17.7
2 Crailsheim Merlins87188%80.868.0+12.8
3 Wolmirstedt87188%77.972.8+5.1
4 Heidelberg86275%81.670.8+10.9
5 Bremerhaven85362%83.183.1+0.0
6 Koln85362%85.588.4-2.9
7 Giessen84450%79.978.1+1.8
8 Tubingen84450%80.679.9+0.8
9 Nurnberger94544%78.682.6-4.0
10 Koblenz73443%83.485.7-2.3
11 Gottingen83538%82.283.0-0.8
12 OrangeAcademy83538%80.986.2-5.4
13 PS Karlsruhe83538%76.984.2-7.4
14 Paderborn72529%79.680.3-0.7
15 Artland72529%84.386.3-2.0
16 Bochum82625%79.585.4-5.9
17 ETB Miners82625%86.493.0-6.6
18 Bayreuth71614%87.998.1-10.3
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
Paderborn1820281816100
Bayreuth272916121498
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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