Parma Perm will host Samara on 3 November 2026 in the VTB United League, and the Pythia model names Parma Perm the clear favourite with a 98% chance of victory, reflecting their 3-3 record and 87.3 points per game compared to Samara's 0-7 record and 69.6 points per game. Parma Perm have scored an average of 87.3 points while allowing 86.7, and their lone home game saw 108 points scored and 90 allowed, showing a strong offensive burst. Samara, meanwhile, have struggled on the road, going 0-2 with 69.5 points per game and 84.0 points allowed, and their last five games have yielded no wins. In head-to-head history Parma Perm lead 7-3, most recently defeating Samara 76-65 on 8 April 2026. Pythia projects a 97-69 score, 166.4 total points, and a 49% chance that Parma Perm will cover the -28.5 spread, while the over on the 169.0 line has a 43% probability.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Parma Perm winWon
98.4%fair 1.02
Best odds1.01
Implied95.0%
Edge+3.4pp
Samara winLost
1.6%fair 61.60
Best odds19.50
Implied5.0%
Edge-3.4pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 02 Nov 07:08 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Parma Perm) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Total points distribution
Pythia expects about 166 points (overtime included in the simulation); the most likely band is 165-169 (12%). The market's main line is 167.
Over/Under 162Actual: Over 162
Over 162
61.1%
@ 1.52
Under 162
38.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.52
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 167 · main lineActual: Over 167
Over 167
48.4%
@ 1.93-1.6pp
Under 167
51.6%
@ 1.87+1.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.93
1xBet
1.93
Pinnacle
1.87
Under
Pinnacle
1.87
Marathon Be
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Over/Under 172Actual: Over 172
Over 172
35.9%
@ 2.20-6.4pp
Under 172
64.1%
@ 1.58+6.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
2.20
1xBet
2.20
Pinnacle
2.16
Under
Pinnacle
1.58
1xBet
1.57
Marathon Be
1.47
📊 3. Team Totals
Parma Perm total 93.5Actual: Parma Perm over 93.5
Over 93.5
64.6%
Under 93.5
35.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Parma Perm total 97.5 · main lineActual: Parma Perm over 97.5
Over 97.5
49.2%
@ 1.89-0.3pp
Under 97.5
50.8%
@ 1.85+0.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.89
1xBet
1.89
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Parma Perm total 99.5Actual: Parma Perm over 99.5
Over 99.5
41.6%
@ 1.95-5.8pp
Under 99.5
58.4%
@ 1.76+5.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.95
1xBet
1.95
Under
Marathon Be
1.76
1xBet
1.76
Samara total 65.5Actual: Samara over 65.5
Over 65.5
63.9%
Under 65.5
36.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samara total 69 · main lineActual: Samara under 69
Over 69
50.3%
@ 1.87+0.3pp
Under 69
49.7%
@ 1.87-0.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
1xBet
1.87
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
1xBet
1.87
Samara total 73Actual: Samara under 73
Over 73
34.3%
Under 73
65.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Winning margin distribution
Margin from Parma Perm's side (positive = Parma Perm win). Pythia's expected margin is +28.2; Parma Perm win by 1+ in 98% of simulations.
Spread Parma Perm -31Actual: Parma Perm -31
PPE -31
40.6%
@ 2.33+0.9pp
SAM +31
59.4%
@ 1.60-0.9pp
Best 5 market prices
PPE
Pinnacle
2.33
Marathon Be
2.19
1xBet
2.19
SAM
Marathon Be
1.60
1xBet
1.60
Pinnacle
1.53
Spread Parma Perm -28 · main lineActual: Parma Perm -28
PPE -28
50.5%
@ 1.89-0.4pp
SAM +28
49.5%
@ 1.90+0.4pp
Best 5 market prices
PPE
Marathon Be
1.89
1xBet
1.89
Pinnacle
1.83
SAM
Pinnacle
1.90
Marathon Be
1.89
1xBet
1.89
Spread Parma Perm -25Actual: Parma Perm -25
PPE -25
60.6%
@ 1.57+2.4pp
SAM +25
39.4%
@ 2.19-2.4pp
Best 5 market prices
PPE
Marathon Be
1.57
1xBet
1.57
SAM
Marathon Be
2.19
1xBet
2.19
⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves
Quarter by quarter
Parma PermSamara
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Parma PermLast 10 – 1st quarter points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Lokomotiv Kuban
#4
L
24-25
24
25
-1
A18/04
VTB United League
Lokomotiv Kuban
#4
L
12-28
12
28
-16
A27/04
VTB United League
Lokomotiv Kuban
#4
L
19-23
19
23
-4
A29/04
VTB United League
Lokomotiv Kuban
#4
W
27-16
27
16
+11
H03/05
VTB United League
Unics Kazan
#4
W
20-17
20
17
+3
A26/09
VTB United League
Zenit Petersburg
#3
L
19-23
19
23
-4
A07/10
VTB United League
Uralmash Ekaterinburg
#6
W
25-17
25
17
+8
A10/10
VTB United League
MBA Moscow
#8
W
31-14
31
14
+17
A13/10
VTB United League
Dynamo Vladivostok
#9
W
26-23
26
23
+3
H17/10
VTB United League
CSKA Moscow
#1
D
14-14
14
14
+0
A27/10
VTB United League
41.7Avg total
21.7Scored
20.0Allowed
1st quarter
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the quarter
Over 41.5
Last 30 (30)
20.9
19.4
40.3
+1.5
57%
50%
Last 30 at home (11)
20.2
18.0
38.2
+2.2
73%
36%
Last 30 away (19)
21.3
20.2
41.5
+1.2
47%
58%
Last 10 (10)
21.7
20.0
41.7
+1.7
50%
70%
Last 5 (5)
23.0
18.2
41.2
+4.8
60%
80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)
19.6
18.0
37.6
+1.6
62%
38%
vs Similar (8)
18.8
21.5
40.2
-2.8
25%
50%
vs Weaker ◀ (14)
22.9
18.9
41.8
+3.9
71%
57%
This opponent (Samara) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
2nd half: Parma Perm (regulation)
91.6%
1.08
Marathon Bet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
-
-
-
+7.0pp
Won
Q3: Parma Perm (regulation)
80.9%
1.22
Marathon Bet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
-
-
-
+5.8pp
Won
Q1: Parma Perm (regulation)
82.5%
1.17
Marathon Bet
1.17
1xBet
1.17
-
-
-
+4.2pp
Won
1st half: Parma Perm (regulation)
92.5%
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Marathon Bet
1.03
-
-
-
+3.7pp
Won
Q2: Parma Perm (regulation)
82.3%
1.16
Marathon Bet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
-
-
-
+3.6pp
Won
Parma Perm win
98.4%
1.01
Marathon Bet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.4pp
Won
Q1: Parma Perm or draw
86.0%
1.10
Marathon Bet
1.10
1xBet
1.10
-
-
-
-
-
Q2: Parma Perm or draw
85.7%
1.06
1xBet
1.10
Marathon Bet
1.01
-
-
-
-
-
Q3: Parma Perm or draw
84.6%
1.14
Marathon Bet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
-
-
Under 177.5
75.8%
1.35
Marathon Bet
1.35
-
-
-
-
-
Won
Under 177
75.3%
1.36
Marathon Bet
1.36
-
-
-
-
-
Push
Samara +36.5
74.4%
1.27
Marathon Bet
1.27
-
-
-
-
-
Lost
Samara +36
73.8%
1.28
Marathon Bet
1.28
-
-
-
-
-
Lost
Under 176.5
73.8%
1.35
Marathon Bet
1.35
-
-
-
-
-
Lost
Parma Perm -20.5
73.5%
1.31
Marathon Bet
1.31
-
-
-
-
-
Won
Under 176
73.2%
1.36
Marathon Bet
1.36
-
-
-
-
-
Lost
Parma Perm -21
72.8%
1.32
Marathon Bet
1.32
-
-
-
-
-
Won
Samara +35.5
71.9%
1.32
Marathon Bet
1.32
-
-
-
-
-
Lost
Under 175.5
71.7%
1.39
Marathon Bet
1.39
-
-
-
-
-
Lost
Samara +35
71.2%
1.33
Marathon Bet
1.33
-
-
-
-
-
Lost
Under 175
71.0%
1.40
Marathon Bet
1.40
-
-
-
-
-
Lost
Parma Perm -21.5
70.8%
1.35
Marathon Bet
1.35
-
-
-
-
-
Won
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They take 60.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes. Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Parma Permtheir opponents' shots (defence), last 10 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Parma Perm: 78.5 points a game allowed
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.0 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.2 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.3 pts a game · 18% of the points
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
39.8
19.5
49.0%
-
39.0
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
26.0
8.4
32.3%
-
25.2
🏀Free throws
18.9
14.3
75.7%
-
14.3
Their opponents take 65.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of those shots are threes. Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
Samaratheir opponents' shots (defence), last 10 games
They take 57.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes. Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Parma Permtheir opponents' shots (defence), last 30 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Parma Perm: 75.2 points a game allowed
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.3 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.5 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.4 pts a game · 16% of the points
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
37.1
18.6
50.2%
-
37.3
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
24.1
8.5
35.3%
-
25.5
🏀Free throws
16.0
12.4
77.3%
-
12.4
Their opponents take 61.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of those shots are threes. Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
Samaratheir opponents' shots (defence), last 30 games
No box scores for this team yet.
💪 9. Team Strengths
Side by side
Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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