Pesaro will host Vigevano on 15 November 2026 in Serie A2, with the model favouring Pesaro at 73% to 27% and projecting a 85-78 win; the projected total of 162.6 points sits above the 157.5 line, giving a 61% chance of the over, while the home line of -7.0 has a 51% probability of covering, and a 4% overtime likelihood. Pesaro has gone 5-4 this season, averaging 81.0 points and conceding 79.9, and is 10th in the league, while at home they are 3-2, scoring 78.0 and allowing 77.4; their last five games yielded only one win, including losses to Sassari 87-96 away, Mestre 73-85 at home, and Avellino Basket 70-79 away. Vigevano sits 3-6 overall, 76.3 points for and 81.8 against, 14th in the standings, and 1-4 on the road, 77.6 points for and 87.0 against; their last five games include three wins, with a recent home win over Ruvo Di Puglia 75-61, a loss to Rimini 68-76 away, and a loss to Libertas Livorno 81-87 at home. The two teams have met twice before, splitting the series 1-1, with Pesaro's last victory 93-82 on 15 January 2025.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Pesaro win
73.4%fair 1.36
Best odds1.35
Implied73.9%
Edge-0.4pp
Vigevano win
26.6%fair 3.77
Best odds3.62
Implied26.1%
Edge+0.4pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 13 Nov 18:31 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Pesaro) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 153
Over 153
71.9%
Under 153
28.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 158.25 · main line
Over 158.25
no forecast
@ 1.82
Under 158.25
no forecast
@ 1.80
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.82
Under
1xBet
1.80
Over/Under 163
Over 163
48.2%
Under 163
51.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
📊 3. Team Totals
Pesaro total 78.5
Over 78.5
73.4%
@ 1.45+10.4pp
Under 78.5
26.6%
@ 2.47-10.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.45
1xBet
1.39
Under
Betano
2.47
1xBet
2.37
Pesaro total 82.5 · main line
Over 82.5
59.1%
@ 1.91+9.6pp
Under 82.5
40.9%
@ 1.85-9.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
WilliamHill
1.91
Betano
1.90
Bet365
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Bet365
1.80
WilliamHill
1.80
Betano
1.78
Pesaro total 86.5
Over 86.5
43.4%
@ 2.70+8.2pp
Under 86.5
56.6%
@ 1.39-8.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.70
1xBet
2.41
Under
Betano
1.39
1xBet
1.38
Vigevano total 71.5
Over 71.5
72.4%
@ 1.45+9.0pp
Under 71.5
27.6%
@ 2.50-9.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.45
1xBet
1.38
Under
Betano
2.50
1xBet
2.41
Vigevano total 75.5 · main line
Over 75.5
58.0%
@ 1.90+8.0pp
Under 75.5
42.0%
@ 1.85-8.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.90
BetVictor
1.88
WilliamHill
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Marathon Be
1.83
Under
WilliamHill
1.85
Bet365
1.83
BetVictor
1.83
Marathon Be
1.83
Betano
1.78
Vigevano total 79.5
Over 79.5
42.6%
@ 2.67+6.9pp
Under 79.5
57.4%
@ 1.40-6.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.67
1xBet
2.37
Under
Betano
1.40
1xBet
1.39
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Pesaro -10
PES -10
39.4%
VIGE +10
60.6%
Best 5 market prices
PES
No market prices yet.
VIGE
No market prices yet.
Spread Pesaro -7 · main line
PES -7
50.8%
@ 1.92+1.0pp
VIGE +7
49.2%
@ 1.90-1.0pp
Best 5 market prices
PES
Pinnacle
1.92
SBO
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
1xBet
1.83
VIGE
Pinnacle
1.90
Marathon Be
1.82
1xBet
1.82
SBO
1.81
Spread Pesaro -4
PES -4
62.6%
@ 1.52
VIGE +4
37.4%
Best 5 market prices
PES
Marathon Be
1.52
VIGE
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves
Quarter by quarter
PesaroVigevano
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (Pesaro) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winner
PES win
no forecast
@ 1.52
VIGE win
no forecast
@ 2.42
2nd half Spread Pesaro -3.5 · main line
PES -3.5
no forecast
@ 1.84
VIGE +3.5
no forecast
@ 1.82
2nd half Over/Under 78 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.82
Under
no forecast
@ 1.84
Pesaro 2nd half total 40.5 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.79
Under
no forecast
@ 1.87
Vigevano 2nd half total 37 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.79
Under
no forecast
@ 1.87
2nd half Over/Under 76.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.60
Under
no forecast
@ 1.93
2nd half Over/Under 79.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.92
Under
no forecast
@ 1.60
2nd half Spread Pesaro -4.5
PES -4.5
no forecast
@ 1.90
VIGE +4.5
no forecast
@ 1.65
2nd half Spread Pesaro -2.5
PES -2.5
no forecast
@ 1.67
VIGE +2.5
no forecast
@ 1.87
2nd half Spread Pesaro -5.5
PES -5.5
no forecast
@ 2.05
VIGE +5.5
no forecast
@ 1.55
2nd half Spread Pesaro -1.5
PES -1.5
no forecast
@ 1.58
VIGE +1.5
no forecast
@ 2.00
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)
PES
no forecast
@ 1.57
Draw
no forecast
@ 19.00
VIGE
no forecast
@ 2.62
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Free readers see five, one market at a time (moneyline, spread, total ...); Pro sees every selection and can filter by Min odds and Edge. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
They take 55.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 20.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
They take 65.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Pesarotheir opponents' shots (defence), last 10 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Pesaro: 76.3 points a game allowed
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.8 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.0 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.5 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 69.7 points a game
46%
35%
19%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
33.3
18.9
56.8%
51.2%
37.8
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
24.2
8.0
33.1%
34.5%
24.0
🏀Free throws
18.9
14.5
76.7%
71.0%
14.5
Their opponents take 57.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of those shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
VIVigevanotheir opponents' shots (defence), last 10 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Vigevano: 83.4 points a game allowed
🏀🏀39%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀24%
🏀🏀 2-pointers32.8 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.9 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.7 pts a game · 24% of the points
League average for comparison: 69.7 points a game
46%
35%
19%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
32.7
16.4
50.2%
51.2%
32.8
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
26.7
10.3
38.6%
34.5%
30.9
🏀Free throws
26.2
19.7
75.2%
71.0%
19.7
Their opponents take 59.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of those shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
They take 57.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
They take 63.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Pesarotheir opponents' shots (defence), last 30 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Pesaro: 80.4 points a game allowed
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.3 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.8 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.3 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 69.7 points a game
46%
35%
19%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
37.0
20.1
54.5%
51.2%
40.3
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
26.7
8.9
33.5%
34.5%
26.8
🏀Free throws
17.8
13.3
74.9%
71.0%
13.3
Their opponents take 63.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of those shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
VIVigevanotheir opponents' shots (defence), last 30 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Vigevano: 83.5 points a game allowed
🏀🏀44%
🏀🏀🏀36%
🏀21%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.5 pts a game · 44% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.7 pts a game · 36% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.3 pts a game · 21% of the points
League average for comparison: 69.7 points a game
46%
35%
19%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
35.5
18.2
51.4%
51.2%
36.5
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
26.7
9.9
37.0%
34.5%
29.7
🏀Free throws
22.6
17.3
76.7%
71.0%
17.3
Their opponents take 62.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of those shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
💪 9. Team Strengths
Side by side
Last 10/10 games with a box score before 15 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Pesaro
LLLLWWWWWL
Vigevano VI
WLLWWLLLLL
#10
League position
#14
-1.4
Net rating
-5.2
105.1
Offensive rating
101.5
106.5
Defensive rating
106.8
54.8%
Effective FG%
50.7%
53.7%
Opp. effective FG%
53.6%
10.0%
Turnover %
11.0%
0.35
Free-throw rate
0.28
41.1%
3-point %
38.4%
53.1%
Assist %
57.4%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
30%
Profile
■ Pesaro■ Vigevano
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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PythiaBasketballBETA
Serie A2Round 10· Vitrifrigo Arena
Pesaro
Fortitudo Bologna
Brindisi
Basket Torino
Pistoia
Forli
Sassari
Mestre
Caserta
Urania Milano