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Pittsburgh vs Rider Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 03 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 00:00
Final 95-57
50-26 45-31
Position#61
Record-
FormWLWWL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
Pittsburgh 🏆
USA
Vs
90%
■ PITT 90%■ RIDE 10%
Pythia win probability
Projected 78-63
Projected total 141.5
Rider
USA
Position#378
Record-
FormLLWLL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Pittsburgh hosts Rider on 2 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names Pittsburgh the clear favourite, assigning a 90% chance of victory because the Panthers have a dominant home record and consistently outscore opponents, while Rider has struggled in recent play. Pittsburgh's last five games include a win over Stanford 64-63, a win over Syracuse 71-69 and a loss to NC State 88-98, showing they can win close contests but also have been outscored by stronger teams; Rider's recent five games feature a win over Niagara 67-62 at home but four defeats to Siena, Iona, and two other opponents, indicating a team that has struggled to keep pace. The two teams have met once before, with the most recent meeting recorded as a loss for Rider. Pythia projects a 78-63 score, giving Pittsburgh a 90% win probability and Rider a 10% chance, and a total of 141.5 points; the line of 142.0 points has a 48% probability of an over, and the game has a 2% chance of going into overtime. The projected outcome leaves Pittsburgh poised to dominate the contest.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Pittsburgh winWon
89.8%fair 1.11
Best odds1.01
Implied95.0%
Edge-5.1pp
Rider winLost
10.2%fair 9.82
Best odds41.00
Implied5.0%
Edge+5.1pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 01 Nov 07:04 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

PittsburghUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
SMU Mustangs
#129
L
67-86
67
86
-19
H07/02
NCAA
Duke
#8
L
54-70
54
70
-16
H11/02
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
L
65-79
65
79
-14
A14/02
NCAA
Notre Dame
#269
W
73-68
73
68
+5
H21/02
NCAA
Stanford
#103
L
67-75
67
75
-8
A26/02
NCAA
California
#79
W
72-56
72
56
+16
A28/02
NCAA
Florida State
#167
L
74-75
74
75
-1
H05/03
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
W
71-69 OT
71
69
+2
A07/03
NCAA
Stanford
#103
W
64-63
64
63
+1
A10/03
NCAA
NC State
#128
L
88-98
88
98
-10
A11/03
NCAA
1H
2H
32-34
35-52
29-35
25-35
32-46
33-33
23-20
50-48
34-32
33-43
34-26
38-30
30-46
44-29
28-31
37-34
31-23
33-40
50-51
38-47
143.4Avg total
69.5Scored
73.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)69.573.9143.4-4.440%
Last 5 (5)73.872.2146.0+1.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (19)65.476.2141.5-10.816%
vs Similar (8)73.572.4145.9+1.150%
vs Weaker (3)89.053.0142.0+36.0100%
RiderUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Manhattan
#296
L
90-95
90
95
-5
A31/01
NCAA
St. Peters
#134
W
81-78
81
78
+3
H01/02
NCAA
Marist
#106
L
52-81
52
81
-29
A06/02
NCAA
Merrimack Warriors
#66
L
47-73
47
73
-26
H08/02
NCAA
Mount St. Mary's
#242
L
55-65
55
65
-10
H14/02
NCAA
Sacred Heart
#262
L
75-86
75
86
-11
A15/02
NCAA
Canisius
#327
L
66-72
66
72
-6
H21/02
NCAA
Niagara
#351
W
67-62
67
62
+5
H22/02
NCAA
Iona
#152
L
58-80
58
80
-22
A28/02
NCAA
Siena
#78
L
61-76
61
76
-15
A01/03
NCAA
1H
2H
43-45
47-50
39-40
42-38
23-48
29-33
20-40
27-33
21-28
34-37
30-49
45-37
30-40
36-32
27-28
40-34
30-40
28-40
35-33
26-43
142.0Avg total
65.2Scored
76.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)65.276.8142.0-11.620%
Last 5 (5)65.475.2140.6-9.820%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (27)63.578.1141.6-14.611%
vs Similar (2)51.559.5111.0-8.00%
vs Weakerno games
Over/Under 137Actual: Over 137
Over 137
60.9%
@ 1.45-3.3pp
Under 137
39.1%
@ 2.60+3.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.45
Under
Bet365
2.60
Over/Under 142 · main lineActual: Over 142
Over 142
48.4%
@ 1.91-0.6pp
Under 142
51.6%
@ 1.84+0.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.91
Marathon Be
1.87
Under
Marathon Be
1.84
Bet365
1.80
Over/Under 147Actual: Over 147
Over 147
36.1%
@ 2.65+1.1pp
Under 147
63.9%
@ 1.43-1.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.65
Under
Bet365
1.43

📊 3. Team Totals

Pittsburgh total 80.5Actual: Pittsburgh over 80.5
Over 80.5
40.2%
@ 1.38-25.3pp
Under 80.5
59.8%
@ 2.62+25.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.38
Under
Betano
2.62
Pittsburgh total 84.5 · main lineActual: Pittsburgh over 84.5
Over 84.5
25.7%
@ 1.85-24.3pp
Under 84.5
74.3%
@ 1.90+24.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.82
Under
Betano
1.90
1xBet
1.90
Marathon Be
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Pittsburgh total 88.5Actual: Pittsburgh over 88.5
Over 88.5
14.5%
@ 2.45-22.5pp
Under 88.5
85.5%
@ 1.44+22.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.45
Under
Betano
1.44
Rider total 53.5Actual: Rider over 53.5
Over 53.5
no forecast
@ 1.42
Under 53.5
no forecast
@ 3.15
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.32
Under
Bet365
3.15
Betano
2.52
Rider total 57.5 · main lineActual: Rider under 57.5
Over 57.5
72.0%
@ 1.94+22.8pp
Under 57.5
28.0%
@ 1.85-22.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.94
Betano
1.93
Bet365
1.86
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.80
Betano
1.78
1xBet
1.77
Rider total 61.5Actual: Rider under 61.5
Over 61.5
57.2%
@ 2.72+23.9pp
Under 61.5
42.8%
@ 1.36-23.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.72
Under
Betano
1.36

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Pittsburgh -31.5Actual: Pittsburgh -31.5
PITT -31.5
no forecast
@ 2.50
RIDE +31.5
no forecast
@ 1.50
Best 5 market prices
PITT
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.37
RIDE
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.50
Spread Pittsburgh -28.5 · main lineActual: Pittsburgh -28.5
PITT -28.5
no forecast
@ 2.00
RIDE +28.5
no forecast
@ 1.80
Best 5 market prices
PITT
1xBet
2.00
Betano
1.98
Bet365
1.95
BetVictor
1.80
RIDE
Betano
1.80
BetVictor
1.80
Bet365
1.74
Marathon Be
1.73
1xBet
1.72
Spread Pittsburgh -25.5Actual: Pittsburgh -25.5
PITT -25.5
no forecast
@ 1.72
RIDE +25.5
no forecast
@ 2.12
Best 5 market prices
PITT
1xBet
1.72
Bet365
1.66
Betano
1.62
RIDE
Betano
2.12
Bet365
2.10
1xBet
2.00

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-12-6+0+6+121st half1st half: -2.1-2.11st half: -9.3-9.32nd half2nd half: -2.5-2.52nd half: -2.3-2.3
-12-6+0+6+121st half1st half: -2.1-2.11st half: -9.3-9.32nd half2nd half: -2.5-2.52nd half: -2.3-2.3
PittsburghRider
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
PittsburghLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
SMU Mustangs
#129
L
32-34
32
34
-2
H07/02
NCAA
Duke
#8
L
29-35
29
35
-6
H11/02
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
L
32-46
32
46
-14
A14/02
NCAA
Notre Dame
#269
W
23-20
23
20
+3
H21/02
NCAA
Stanford
#103
W
34-32
34
32
+2
A26/02
NCAA
California
#79
W
34-26
34
26
+8
A28/02
NCAA
Florida State
#167
L
30-46
30
46
-16
H05/03
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
L
28-31
28
31
-3
A07/03
NCAA
Stanford
#103
W
31-23
31
23
+8
A10/03
NCAA
NC State
#128
L
50-51
50
51
-1
A11/03
NCAA
66.7Avg total
32.3Scored
34.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 70.5
Last 30 (30)32.734.567.2-1.837%37%
Last 30 at home (15)32.936.168.9-3.233%33%
Last 30 away (15)32.533.065.5-0.540%40%
Last 10 (10)32.334.466.7-2.140%30%
Last 5 (5)34.635.470.0-0.840%40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (19)31.336.067.3-4.732%32%
vs Similar (8)31.434.165.5-2.825%50%
vs Weaker (3)45.026.371.3+18.7100%33%
RiderLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Manhattan
#296
L
43-45
43
45
-2
A31/01
NCAA
St. Peters
#134
L
39-40
39
40
-1
H01/02
NCAA
Marist
#106
L
23-48
23
48
-25
A06/02
NCAA
Merrimack Warriors
#66
L
20-40
20
40
-20
H08/02
NCAA
Mount St. Mary's
#242
L
21-28
21
28
-7
H14/02
NCAA
Sacred Heart
#262
L
30-49
30
49
-19
A15/02
NCAA
Canisius
#327
L
30-40
30
40
-10
H21/02
NCAA
Niagara
#351
L
27-28
27
28
-1
H22/02
NCAA
Iona
#152
L
30-40
30
40
-10
A28/02
NCAA
Siena
#78
W
35-33
35
33
+2
A01/03
NCAA
68.9Avg total
29.8Scored
39.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 70.5
Last 30 (30)29.637.367.0-7.713%37%
Last 30 at home (13)30.334.064.3-3.723%31%
Last 30 away (17)29.139.969.0-10.86%41%
Last 10 (10)29.839.168.9-9.310%40%
Last 5 (5)30.438.068.4-7.620%20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (27)29.638.367.9-8.711%37%
vs Similar (2)26.525.051.5+1.550%0%
vs Weakerno games
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winnerActual: Pittsburgh win
PITT win
no forecast
@ 1.03
RIDE win
no forecast
@ 13.00
1st half Spread Pittsburgh -13.5 · main lineActual: Pittsburgh -13.5
PITT -13.5
no forecast
@ 1.83
RIDE +13.5
no forecast
@ 2.15
1st half Over/Under 70.5 · main lineActual: Over 70.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.62
Under
no forecast
@ 1.86
Pittsburgh 1st half total 42 · main lineActual: Pittsburgh over 42
Over
no forecast
@ 1.83
Under
no forecast
@ 1.87
Rider 1st half total 25.5 · main lineActual: Rider over 25.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
1st half Spread Pittsburgh -14.5Actual: Pittsburgh -14.5
PITT -14.5
no forecast
@ 1.78
RIDE +14.5
no forecast
@ 2.00
1st half Spread Pittsburgh -12.5Actual: Pittsburgh -12.5
PITT -12.5
no forecast
@ 1.52
RIDE +12.5
no forecast
@ 2.35
1st half Over/Under 68.5Actual: Over 68.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.18
Under
no forecast
@ 1.60
1st half Spread Pittsburgh -15.5Actual: Pittsburgh -15.5
PITT -15.5
no forecast
@ 1.93
RIDE +15.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
1st half Spread Pittsburgh -11.5Actual: Pittsburgh -11.5
PITT -11.5
no forecast
@ 1.42
RIDE +11.5
no forecast
@ 2.62
1st half Over/Under 66.5Actual: Over 66.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.91
Under
no forecast
@ 1.87
1st half Spread Pittsburgh -16.5Actual: Pittsburgh -16.5
PITT -16.5
no forecast
@ 2.10
RIDE +16.5
no forecast
@ 1.72
1st half Spread Pittsburgh -10.5Actual: Pittsburgh -10.5
PITT -10.5
no forecast
@ 1.42
RIDE +10.5
no forecast
@ 2.92
1st half Over/Under 64.5Actual: Over 64.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.62
Under
no forecast
@ 2.15
1st half Spread Pittsburgh -17.5Actual: Pittsburgh -17.5
PITT -17.5
no forecast
@ 2.25
RIDE +17.5
no forecast
@ 1.57
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Pittsburgh (regulation)
PITT
no forecast
@ 1.04
Draw
no forecast
@ 41.00
RIDE
no forecast
@ 13.25

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
PITT win + total 141.5
🔒 Pro
RIDE win + total 141.5
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: PITT leads at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: level at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: RIDE leads at half
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: close (1-10 points)
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: clear (11-20 points)
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: blowout (21+ points)
🔒 Pro
🔒 8 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Rider +2172.3%3.15
Bet365
3.15		----+42.8ppLost
Rider +2275.2%2.80
Bet365
2.80		----+42.2ppLost
Rider +2377.9%2.60
Bet365
2.60		----+42.1ppLost
Rider +21.573.1%2.88
Bet365
2.90
Betano
2.87		---+41.1ppLost
Rider +23.578.5%2.48
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.45		---+41.0ppLost
Rider +22.575.9%2.65
Bet365
2.65
Betano
2.65		---+40.9ppLost
Rider +2480.4%2.35
Bet365
2.35		----+40.9ppLost
Rider +20.570.1%3.15
Bet365
3.20
Betano
3.10		---+40.8ppLost
Rider +2582.8%2.20
Bet365
2.20		----+40.7ppLost
Rider +24.580.9%2.26
Betano
2.27
Bet365
2.25		---+40.1ppLost
Pittsburgh under 85.577.5%1.81
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.75		--+27.5ppLost
Pittsburgh under 8576.7%1.85
BetVictor
1.85		----+26.7ppLost
Pittsburgh under 84.574.3%1.86
Betano
1.90
1xBet
1.90
Marathon Bet
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85		+24.3ppLost
Rider over 5774.4%1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.84		---+24.3ppPush
Pittsburgh under 86.580.4%1.62
Betano
1.62		----+24.3ppLost
Rider over 56.575.2%1.79
Bet365
1.80
Betano
1.78		---+23.8ppWon
Pittsburgh under 83.570.9%1.94
Betano
2.05
Bet365
1.83		---+23.3ppLost
Rider over 57.572.0%1.89
1xBet
1.94
Betano
1.93
Bet365
1.86
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85		+22.8ppLost
Pittsburgh under 88.585.5%1.44
Betano
1.44		----+22.5ppLost
Rider over 55.578.3%1.60
Betano
1.60		----+21.9ppWon
Pittsburgh under 87.583.0%1.50
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.47		---+21.5ppLost
Rider over 5871.0%1.85
BetVictor
1.85		----+21.0ppLost
Pittsburgh under 90.589.6%1.31
Betano
1.31		----+20.5ppLost
Pittsburgh under 89.587.6%1.35
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.34		---+19.6ppLost
Pittsburgh under 91.591.3%1.23
Bet365
1.23		----+16.0ppLost
Under 167.594.4%1.01
Bet365
1.01		----+0.7ppWon
Under 15070.7%1.33
Bet365
1.33		----+0.7ppLost
Under 166.593.7%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----0.0ppWon
Under 162.590.1%1.03
Bet365
1.03		-----0.1ppWon
Under 150.571.3%1.30
Bet365
1.30		-----0.2ppLost
Over 117.593.1%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----0.6ppWon
Under 152.575.3%1.22
Bet365
1.22		-----0.9ppWon
Under 161.589.1%1.03
Bet365
1.03		-----1.2ppWon
Over 121.589.1%1.03
Bet365
1.03		-----1.3ppWon
Under 157.583.9%1.10
Bet365
1.10		-----1.7ppWon
Over 122.587.9%1.03
Bet365
1.03		-----2.5ppWon
Under 151.573.3%1.22
Bet365
1.22		-----2.8ppLost
Under 156.582.3%1.10
Bet365
1.10		-----3.2ppWon
Pittsburgh (regulation)88.4%1.01
Betano
1.01		-----3.3ppWon
Over 126.582.2%1.09
Bet365
1.09		-----3.9ppWon
Pittsburgh over 65.589.7%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----4.0ppWon
Over 131.573.0%1.20
Bet365
1.20		-----4.8ppWon
Pittsburgh over 66.587.8%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----5.0ppWon
Pittsburgh win89.8%1.01
Betano
1.01		-----5.1ppWon
Over 127.580.5%1.09
Bet365
1.09		-----5.6ppWon
Pittsburgh over 67.585.7%1.02
Bet365
1.02		-----5.8ppWon
Over 132.570.9%1.20
Bet365
1.20		-----6.9ppWon
Pittsburgh over 68.583.3%1.02
Bet365
1.02		-----7.9ppWon
Pittsburgh over 69.580.7%1.04
Bet365
1.04		-----9.0ppWon
Rider under 72.581.6%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----11.2ppWon
Pittsburgh over 70.577.8%1.04
Bet365
1.04		-----11.9ppWon
Pittsburgh over 71.574.7%1.06
Bet365
1.06		-----13.3ppWon
Rider under 70.576.0%1.02
Bet365
1.02		-----14.7ppWon
Pittsburgh -6.576.7%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----16.1ppWon
Pittsburgh over 72.571.3%1.07
Bet365
1.07		-----16.2ppWon
Pittsburgh -7.573.8%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----18.4ppWon
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Pittsburgh wins
0
Rider wins
No previous meetings.
Pittsburghlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/03/26ANC State88-98
10/03/26AStanford64-63
07/03/26ASyracuse71-69 OT
05/03/26HFlorida State74-75
28/02/26ACalifornia72-56
26/02/26AStanford67-75
21/02/26HNotre Dame73-68
14/02/26ANorth Carolina65-79
11/02/26HDuke54-70
07/02/26HSMU Mustangs67-86
Riderlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
01/03/26ASiena61-76
28/02/26AIona58-80
22/02/26HNiagara67-62
21/02/26HCanisius66-72
15/02/26ASacred Heart75-86
14/02/26HMount St. Mary's55-65
08/02/26HMerrimack Warriors47-73
06/02/26AMarist52-81
01/02/26HSt. Peters81-78
31/01/26AManhattan90-95

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Pittsburgh
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over 142---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
Rider
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over 142---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Duke110100%84.050.0+34.0
2 Notre Dame110100%74.072.0+2.0
3 Miami (FL)1010%67.077.0-10.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Metro Atlantic Athletic conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Merrimack Warriors110100%63.049.0+14.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Pittsburgh504595
Rider263157
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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