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Polonia Warszawa vs Pelplin Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 31 Oct 2026
Tip-off: 14:00
Final 108-94
29-25 28-27 30-27 21-15
Position#5
Record4-2
FormWWLLW
Points / game87.7
Allowed / game90.8
Vs
53%
47%
■ POLO 53%■ PELP 47%
Pythia win probability
Projected 88-87
Projected total 175.6
Position#8
Record4-2
FormLLWWW
Points / game90.3
Allowed / game89.0
Poland1 LigaRound 7· Hala Sportowa Kolo
Other2026-27
Meetings · Polonia Warszawa v Pelplin
31 Oct 2026
POLO108
PELP94
15 Mar 2026
POLO93
PELP80
02 Mar 2025
POLO71
PELP69
23 Dec 2023
POLO76
PELP77
18 Jan 2023
POLO79
PELP72
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off
Polonia Warszawa host Pelplin in the 1 Liga. Pythia makes Polonia Warszawa the favourite at 53% and projects 88-87, about 176 points in all (over 178: 43%). On the market's main spread (Polonia Warszawa +1.5) Pythia gives Polonia Warszawa 56% to cover. Overtime chance: 5%. Polonia Warszawa are 4-2 this season (87.7 scored, 90.8 allowed a game), form WWLLW; Pelplin are 4-2 this season (90.3 scored, 89.0 allowed a game), form LLWWW.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Polonia Warszawa winWon
52.8%fair 1.89
Best odds2.00
Implied48.1%
Edge+4.7pp
Pelplin winLost
47.2%fair 2.12
Best odds1.80
Implied51.9%
Edge-4.7pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 31 Oct 09:03 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Polonia WarszawaPolandLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormWarszawa
Date
Competition
WKK Wroclaw
#10
W
77-68
77
68
+9
70avg 73
H29/03
1 Liga
Zubry Bialystok
#17
L
80-90
80
90
-10
76avg 73
A02/04
1 Liga
Spojnia Stargard
#4
L
71-89
71
89
-18
61avg 73
H11/04
1 Liga
Kotwica Kolobrzeg
#8
L
72-74
72
74
-2
60avg 73
A15/04
1 Liga
Lancut
#9
W
95-93
95
93
+2
90avg 73
H21/09
1 Liga
Kotwica Kolobrzeg
#10
W
100-98 OT
100
98
+2
80avg 73
A26/09
1 Liga
Inowroclaw
#7
W
90-87
90
87
+3
92avg 73
H04/10
1 Liga
Leszno
#1
L
77-99
77
99
-22
71avg 73
A10/10
1 Liga
WKK Wroclaw
#6
L
81-89
81
89
-8
70avg 73
H18/10
1 Liga
R. Rzeszow
#15
W
83-79
83
79
+4
86avg 73
A24/10
1 Liga
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-14
15-18
13-21
25-15
15-15
23-29
24-15
18-31
23-21
10-23
24-19
14-26
15-23
22-21
18-12
17-18
34-12
31-28
16-29
14-24
15-22
32-23
18-28
22-14
17-12
23-25
29-25
21-25
18-29
21-19
21-34
17-17
20-15
18-22
22-22
21-30
21-18
20-11
13-26
29-24
169.2Avg total
82.6Scored
86.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (6)87.790.8178.5-3.267%
Season at home (3)88.789.7178.3-1.067%
Season away (3)86.792.0178.7-5.367%
Last 10 (10)82.686.6169.2-4.050%
Last 5 (5)86.290.4176.6-4.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)79.685.6165.1-6.029%
vs Similar ◀ (21)80.083.5163.4-3.543%
vs Weaker (2)81.584.5166.0-3.050%
This opponent (Pelplin) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PelplinPolandLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPelplin
Date
Competition
Spojnia Stargard
#4
W
87-84
87
84
+3
81avg 77
A19/04
1 Liga
Spojnia Stargard
#4
L
68-92
68
92
-24
61avg 77
H25/04
1 Liga
Spojnia Stargard
#4
W
83-76
83
76
+7
75avg 77
H26/04
1 Liga
Spojnia Stargard
#4
L
78-93
78
93
-15
68avg 77
A29/04
1 Liga
Poli. Opolska
#16
W
89-76
89
76
+13
92avg 77
H27/09
1 Liga
Leszno
#1
L
74-91
74
91
-17
61avg 77
A30/09
1 Liga
WKK Wroclaw
#6
L
83-97
83
97
-14
74avg 77
A03/10
1 Liga
Krosno
#12
W
91-80
91
80
+11
89avg 77
H09/10
1 Liga
R. Rzeszow
#15
W
106-98
106
98
+8
98avg 77
A17/10
1 Liga
Spojnia Stargard
#2
W
99-92
99
92
+7
90avg 77
H24/10
1 Liga
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
17-18
14-23
29-26
27-17
16-24
14-16
23-32
15-20
16-21
16-19
21-25
30-11
15-22
21-31
25-23
17-17
30-14
18-25
22-17
19-20
21-28
19-23
15-19
19-21
17-23
24-21
21-22
21-31
23-23
23-16
15-27
30-14
33-18
26-28
19-32
28-20
34-21
20-22
25-25
20-24
173.7Avg total
85.8Scored
87.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (6)90.389.0179.3+1.367%
Season at home (3)93.082.7175.7+10.3100%
Season away (3)87.795.3183.0-7.733%
Last 10 (10)85.887.9173.7-2.160%
Last 5 (5)90.691.6182.2-1.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)83.895.5179.2-11.825%
vs Similar ◀ (19)84.185.3169.4-1.353%
vs Weaker (7)89.181.1170.3+8.086%
This opponent (Polonia Warszawa) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 173Actual: Over 173
Over 173
55.3%
Under 173
44.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 178 · main lineActual: Over 178
Over 178
43.1%
@ 1.88-6.5pp
Under 178
56.9%
@ 1.85+6.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.88
SBO
1.83
1xBet
1.78
Under
Pinnacle
1.85
SBO
1.83
1xBet
1.72
Over/Under 183Actual: Over 183
Over 183
31.7%
Under 183
68.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Polonia Warszawa total 84.5Actual: Polonia Warszawa over 84.5
Over 84.5
63.6%
@ 1.38+0.3pp
Under 84.5
36.4%
@ 2.38-0.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.38
Under
1xBet
2.38
Polonia Warszawa total 88.5 · main lineActual: Polonia Warszawa over 88.5
Over 88.5
48.5%
@ 1.83-1.5pp
Under 88.5
51.5%
@ 1.83+1.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.82
1xBet
1.71
Under
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.82
1xBet
1.73
Polonia Warszawa total 92.5Actual: Polonia Warszawa over 92.5
Over 92.5
33.6%
@ 2.34-3.7pp
Under 92.5
66.4%
@ 1.39+3.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.34
Under
1xBet
1.39
Pelplin total 85.5Actual: Pelplin over 85.5
Over 85.5
56.8%
@ 1.42-4.6pp
Under 85.5
43.2%
@ 2.26+4.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.42
Under
1xBet
2.26
Pelplin total 89.5 · main lineActual: Pelplin over 89.5
Over 89.5
41.6%
@ 1.85-7.5pp
Under 89.5
58.4%
@ 1.83+7.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.85
Bet365
1.83
1xBet
1.78
Under
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.78
1xBet
1.67
Pelplin total 93.5Actual: Pelplin over 93.5
Over 93.5
27.6%
@ 2.46-8.0pp
Under 93.5
72.4%
@ 1.36+8.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.46
Under
1xBet
1.36

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Polonia Warszawa -1.5Actual: Polonia Warszawa -1.5
POLO -1.5
49.9%
@ 2.06+4.9pp
PELP +1.5
50.1%
@ 1.69-4.9pp
Best 5 market prices
POLO
Pinnacle
2.06
1xBet
1.98
PELP
Pinnacle
1.69
1xBet
1.60
Spread Polonia Warszawa +1.5 · main lineActual: Polonia Warszawa +1.5
POLO +1.5
55.7%
@ 1.91+5.3pp
PELP -1.5
44.3%
@ 1.91-5.3pp
Best 5 market prices
POLO
Betfair
1.91
Pinnacle
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.80
SBO
1.76
PELP
SBO
1.91
Pinnacle
1.88
1xBet
1.86
Betano
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Spread Polonia Warszawa +4.5Actual: Polonia Warszawa +4.5
POLO +4.5
66.7%
@ 1.41+4.0pp
PELP -4.5
33.3%
@ 2.37-4.0pp
Best 5 market prices
POLO
1xBet
1.41
PELP
1xBet
2.37

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +2.1+2.1Q1: +1.0+1.0Q2Q2: -0.4-0.4Q2: -2.9-2.9Q3Q3: -3.3-3.3Q3: -3.3-3.3Q4Q4: -2.6-2.6Q4: +3.1+3.1
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +2.1+2.1Q1: +1.0+1.0Q2Q2: -0.4-0.4Q2: -2.9-2.9Q3Q3: -3.3-3.3Q3: -3.3-3.3Q4Q4: -2.6-2.6Q4: +3.1+3.1
Polonia WarszawaPelplin
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Polonia WarszawaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
WKK Wroclaw
#10
W
39-32
39
32
+7
H29/03
1 Liga
Zubry Bialystok
#17
L
38-44
38
44
-6
A02/04
1 Liga
Spojnia Stargard
#4
L
33-44
33
44
-11
H11/04
1 Liga
Kotwica Kolobrzeg
#8
L
37-44
37
44
-7
A15/04
1 Liga
Lancut
#9
W
65-40
65
40
+25
H21/09
1 Liga
Kotwica Kolobrzeg
#10
W
47-45
47
45
+2
A26/09
1 Liga
Inowroclaw
#7
W
40-37
40
37
+3
H04/10
1 Liga
Leszno
#1
L
39-48
39
48
-9
A10/10
1 Liga
WKK Wroclaw
#6
W
38-37
38
37
+1
H18/10
1 Liga
R. Rzeszow
#15
W
41-29
41
29
+12
A24/10
1 Liga
81.7Avg total
41.7Scored
40.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 88.5
Last 30 (30)40.642.182.7-1.443%30%
Last 30 at home (15)41.740.281.9+1.553%27%
Last 30 away (15)39.643.983.5-4.333%33%
Last 10 (10)41.740.081.7+1.760%20%
Last 5 (5)41.039.280.2+1.880%20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)36.944.981.7-8.029%14%
vs Similar ◀ (21)42.041.783.7+0.348%38%
vs Weaker (2)39.536.576.0+3.050%0%
This opponent (Pelplin) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PelplinLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Spojnia Stargard
#4
L
31-41
31
41
-10
A19/04
1 Liga
Spojnia Stargard
#4
L
30-40
30
40
-10
H25/04
1 Liga
Spojnia Stargard
#4
L
32-40
32
40
-8
H26/04
1 Liga
Spojnia Stargard
#4
L
36-53
36
53
-17
A29/04
1 Liga
Poli. Opolska
#16
W
48-39
48
39
+9
H27/09
1 Liga
Leszno
#1
L
40-51
40
51
-11
A30/09
1 Liga
WKK Wroclaw
#6
L
41-44
41
44
-3
A03/10
1 Liga
Krosno
#12
W
46-39
46
39
+7
H09/10
1 Liga
R. Rzeszow
#15
W
59-46
59
46
+13
A17/10
1 Liga
Spojnia Stargard
#2
W
54-43
54
43
+11
H24/10
1 Liga
85.3Avg total
41.7Scored
43.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 88.5
Last 30 (30)43.743.487.1+0.250%50%
Last 30 at home (14)43.339.983.1+3.471%29%
Last 30 away (16)44.046.690.6-2.631%69%
Last 10 (10)41.743.685.3-1.940%40%
Last 5 (5)48.044.692.6+3.460%60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)48.549.297.8-0.825%100%
vs Similar ◀ (19)42.143.485.4-1.347%47%
vs Weaker (7)45.340.385.6+5.071%29%
This opponent (Polonia Warszawa) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winnerActual: Polonia Warszawa win
POLO win
no forecast
@ 1.93
PELP win
no forecast
@ 1.80
1st half Spread Polonia Warszawa +0.5 · main lineActual: Polonia Warszawa +0.5
POLO +0.5
no forecast
@ 1.83
PELP -0.5
no forecast
@ 1.83
1st half Over/Under 88.5 · main lineActual: Over 88.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.83
Under
no forecast
@ 1.83
Polonia Warszawa 1st half total 43.5 · main lineActual: Polonia Warszawa over 43.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.83
Under
no forecast
@ 1.87
Pelplin 1st half total 44.5 · main lineActual: Pelplin over 44.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.90
Under
no forecast
@ 1.80
1st half: POLO + total 87.5
POLO & over
no forecast
@ 3.75
POLO & under
no forecast
@ 3.90
1st half: Draw + total 87.5
Draw & over
no forecast
@ 29.00
Draw & under
no forecast
@ 31.00
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Polonia Warszawa (regulation)
POLO
no forecast
@ 2.00
Draw
no forecast
@ 17.50
PELP
no forecast
@ 1.85

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
POLO win + total 177.5
🔒 Pro
PELP win + total 177.5
🔒 Pro
Overtime
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: POLO leads at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: level at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: PELP leads at half
🔒 Pro
Team with the highest-scoring quarter
🔒 Pro
Highest-scoring half
🔒 Pro
🔒 8 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Pelplin under 94.575.5%1.31
1xBet
1.31
----+8.1ppWon
Pelplin under 93.572.4%1.36
1xBet
1.36
----+8.0ppLost
Pelplin under 95.578.3%1.24
1xBet
1.24
----+7.6ppWon
Polonia Warszawa under 94.573.0%1.29
1xBet
1.29
----+4.4ppLost
Polonia Warszawa +5.570.1%1.34
1xBet
1.34
----+3.9ppWon
Polonia Warszawa +6.573.2%1.28
1xBet
1.28
----+3.7ppWon
Overtime: no94.6%1.03
Betano
1.03
----+3.3pp-
Polonia Warszawa over 82.570.6%1.28
1xBet
1.28
----+1.3ppWon
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Polonia Warszawatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Polonia Warszawa: 82.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀55%
🏀🏀🏀28%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers45.2 pts a game · 55% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.1 pts a game · 28% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.3 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 85.4 points a game
50%
31%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.422.6
54.6%
53.9%45.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.07.7
28.5%
33.5%23.1
🏀 Free throws22.514.3
63.6%
70.8%14.3
They take 68.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Pelplintheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Pelplin: 85.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀54%
🏀🏀🏀24%
🏀21%
🏀🏀 2-pointers46.4 pts a game · 54% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.0 pts a game · 24% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.4 pts a game · 21% of the points
League average for comparison: 85.4 points a game
50%
31%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.223.2
52.5%
53.9%46.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.27.0
33.0%
33.5%21.0
🏀 Free throws26.918.4
68.4%
70.8%18.4
They take 65.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 21.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 32% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 31 Oct 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Polonia Warszawa
WLLWWWLLLW
Pelplin
WWWLLWLWLW
#5
League position
#8
-4.3
Net rating
-2.3
89.4
Offensive rating
92.5
93.7
Defensive rating
94.8
49.9%
Effective FG%
51.5%
49.9%
Opp. effective FG%
51.9%
14.9%
Turnover %
17.7%
0.33
Free-throw rate
0.41
28.5%
3-point %
33.0%
62.4%
Assist %
59.6%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence89.4 · 92.5Defence93.7 · 94.8Shooting49.9% · 51.5%3-point %28.5% · 33.0%Ball care14.9% · 17.7%Free throws0.33 · 0.41Form (last 10/10)50% · 60%
■ Polonia Warszawa   ■ Pelplin
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Polonia Warszawa wins
4
Pelplin wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
24/10/26AR. Rzeszow83-79
18/10/26HWKK Wroclaw81-89
10/10/26ALeszno77-99
04/10/26HInowroclaw90-87
26/09/26AKotwica Kolobrzeg100-98 OT
21/09/26HLancut95-93
15/04/26AKotwica Kolobrzeg72-74
11/04/26HSpojnia Stargard71-89
02/04/26AZubry Bialystok80-90
29/03/26HWKK Wroclaw77-68
Pelplinlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
24/10/26HSpojnia Stargard99-92
17/10/26AR. Rzeszow106-98
09/10/26HKrosno91-80
03/10/26AWKK Wroclaw83-97
30/09/26ALeszno74-91
27/09/26HPoli. Opolska89-76
29/04/26ASpojnia Stargard78-93
26/04/26HSpojnia Stargard83-76
25/04/26HSpojnia Stargard68-92
19/04/26ASpojnia Stargard87-84

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Polonia Warszawa
1 Liga 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLW67%
HomeWWL67%
AwayWLW67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games633
Win %67%67%67%
Points / game87.788.786.7
Allowed / game90.889.792.0
Point differential-3.2-1.0-5.3
Avg total178.5178.3178.7
Over 17833%33%33%
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (4)100% (2)100% (2)
Overtime %17%0%33%
Pelplin
1 Liga 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWWW67%
HomeWWW100%
AwayLLW33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games633
Win %67%100%33%
Points / game90.393.087.7
Allowed / game89.082.795.3
Point differential+1.3+10.3-7.7
Avg total179.3175.7183.0
Over 17850%33%67%
Win by 10+33%67%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Leszno660100%91.073.0+18.0
2 LKS Lodz65183%86.773.8+12.8
3 Spojnia Stargard65183%90.784.0+6.7
4 Poznan64267%92.787.0+5.7
5 Inowroclaw64267%80.578.0+2.5
6 Pelplin64267%90.389.0+1.3
7 Polonia Warszawa64267%87.790.8-3.2
8 WKK Wroclaw74357%83.181.3+1.9
9 Lancut63350%88.283.5+4.7
10 GKS Tychy73443%77.079.6-2.6
11 Kotwica Kolobrzeg62433%89.892.5-2.7
12 Bytom62433%82.385.5-3.2
13 Krosno61517%84.289.5-5.3
14 Starogard Gdanski61517%85.793.8-8.2
15 Poli. Opolska61517%81.294.8-13.7
16 R. Rzeszow6060%76.391.0-14.7
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Polonia Warszawa29283021108
Pelplin2527271594
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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