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Princeton vs Stony Brook Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 12 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 00:00
Projected 75-65
Projected total 140.6
Final 69-59
39-21 30-38
Position#113
Record2-1
FormWLWWL
Points / game68.7
Allowed / game62.0
Princeton 🏆
USA
Vs
81%
19%
■ PRIN 81%■ STON 19%
Pythia win probability
Stony Brook
USA
Position#251
Record1-1
FormLLLWL
Points / game81.0
Allowed / game62.5
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Princeton hosts Stony Brook on 11 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names Princeton the clear favourite, assigning an 81% chance of victory largely because the Tigers have a 2-1 record, 68.7 points per game and only 62.0 allowed, while the Seawolves are 1-1, 81.0 points per game and 62.5 allowed; Princeton's two-game home record is undefeated at 2-0 with 69.0 points scored and 52.0 allowed, and their last five games show three wins and two losses, including a 78-46 win over Carnegie Mellon and a 60-58 win over Hofstra, whereas Stony Brook's single road game was a 65-78 loss to Northwestern and their last five games include one win and four losses, with a 97-47 home win over Old Westbury. The teams have met once before, with Princeton winning that encounter. Pythia projects a 75-65 score, a 140.6 total, and gives Princeton an 81% win probability, Stony Brook 19%; the home line is -4.5 with a 70% chance of covering, the over line is 137.5 with a 57% probability of the total exceeding it, and there is a 4% chance of overtime.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Princeton winWon
81.1%fair 1.23
Best odds1.48
Implied65.2%
Edge+15.9pp
Stony Brook winLost
18.9%fair 5.29
Best odds2.80
Implied34.8%
Edge-15.9pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 10 Nov 07:00 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

PrincetonUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Penn
#115
L
60-61
60
61
-1
A07/02
NCAA
Cornell
#175
L
65-89
65
89
-24
H14/02
NCAA
Columbia
#141
L
65-75
65
75
-10
H14/02
NCAA
Brown
#319
L
71-80
71
80
-9
A21/02
NCAA
Harvard
#133
L
56-58
56
58
-2
H28/02
NCAA
Dartmouth
#272
W
82-61
82
61
+21
H28/02
NCAA
Yale
#22
L
53-78
53
78
-25
A07/03
NCAA
Carnegie Mellon
#420
W
78-46
78
46
+32
H02/11
NCAA
Hofstra
#257
W
60-58
60
58
+2
H06/11
NCAA
Siena
#176
L
68-82
68
82
-14
A08/11
NCAA
1H
2H
25-35
35-26
27-44
38-45
31-30
34-45
37-42
34-38
33-21
23-37
43-28
39-33
30-32
23-46
38-19
40-27
23-30
37-28
29-39
39-43
134.6Avg total
65.8Scored
68.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)68.762.0130.7+6.767%
Season at home (2)69.052.0121.0+17.0100%
Season away (1)68.082.0150.0-14.00%
Last 10 (10)65.868.8134.6-3.030%
Last 5 (5)68.265.0133.2+3.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (20)66.273.3139.5-7.120%
vs Similar ◀ (7)69.066.0135.0+3.057%
vs Weaker (1)68.073.0141.0-5.00%
This opponent (Stony Brook) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Stony BrookUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Northeastern
#358
W
69-55
69
55
+14
H07/02
NCAA
Towson
#157
L
57-69
57
69
-12
A13/02
NCAA
Drexel
#193
W
72-69
72
69
+3
H17/02
NCAA
Hampton
#276
W
79-72
79
72
+7
H21/02
NCAA
Monmouth
#159
L
69-82
69
82
-13
A27/02
NCAA
Hofstra
#54
L
58-67
58
67
-9
A01/03
NCAA
Towson
#157
L
57-69
57
69
-12
H03/03
NCAA
Campbell
#222
L
89-96
89
96
-7
H07/03
NCAA
Old Westbury
#493
W
97-47
97
47
+50
H02/11
NCAA
Northwestern
#69
L
65-78
65
78
-13
A07/11
NCAA
1H
2H
29-19
40-36
23-39
34-30
36-35
36-34
33-29
46-43
35-49
34-33
32-32
26-35
36-27
21-42
40-48
49-48
42-18
55-29
30-44
35-34
141.6Avg total
71.2Scored
70.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (2)81.062.5143.5+18.550%
Season at home (1)97.047.0144.0+50.0100%
Season away (1)65.078.0143.0-13.00%
Last 10 (10)71.270.4141.6+0.840%
Last 5 (5)73.271.4144.6+1.820%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)65.072.9137.9-7.929%
vs Similar ◀ (19)70.574.1144.6-3.547%
vs Weaker (4)84.859.2144.0+25.5100%
This opponent (Princeton) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 132.5Actual: Under 132.5
Over 132.5
68.7%
@ 1.45+5.0pp
Under 132.5
31.3%
@ 2.60-5.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.45
Under
Bet365
2.60
Betano
2.50
Over/Under 137.5 · main lineActual: Under 137.5
Over 137.5
57.2%
@ 1.90+6.6pp
Under 137.5
42.8%
@ 1.92-6.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.90
Pinnacle
1.88
SBO
1.85
Betano
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
Under
Pinnacle
1.92
Betano
1.91
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Be
1.89
SBO
1.85
Over/Under 142.5Actual: Under 142.5
Over 142.5
45.0%
@ 2.60+7.8pp
Under 142.5
55.0%
@ 1.50-7.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.60
Betano
2.40
Under
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.45

📊 3. Team Totals

Princeton total 66.5Actual: Princeton over 66.5
Over 66.5
no forecast
@ 1.34
Under 66.5
no forecast
@ 2.77
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.34
Under
Betano
2.77
Princeton total 71 · main lineActual: Princeton under 71
Over 71
67.4%
@ 1.85+17.2pp
Under 71
32.6%
@ 1.87-17.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Princeton total 75Actual: Princeton under 75
Over 75
51.4%
Under 75
48.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stony Brook total 63Actual: Stony Brook under 63
Over 63
58.8%
Under 63
41.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stony Brook total 67 · main lineActual: Stony Brook under 67
Over 67
42.6%
@ 1.87-6.8pp
Under 67
57.4%
@ 1.83+6.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
Under
Marathon Be
1.83
Stony Brook total 71Actual: Stony Brook under 71
Over 71
27.8%
Under 71
72.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Princeton -8Actual: Princeton -8
PRIN -8
57.6%
@ 2.35+18.0pp
STON +8
42.4%
@ 1.54-18.0pp
Best 5 market prices
PRIN
Bet365
2.35
STON
Bet365
1.54
Spread Princeton -5 · main lineActual: Princeton -5
PRIN -5
68.7%
@ 1.94+19.0pp
STON +5
31.3%
@ 1.91-19.0pp
Best 5 market prices
PRIN
Pinnacle
1.94
SBO
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
Bet365
1.83
STON
Pinnacle
1.91
Marathon Be
1.87
Bet365
1.86
SBO
1.85
Spread Princeton -2Actual: Princeton -2
PRIN -2
78.4%
@ 1.54+17.9pp
STON +2
21.6%
@ 2.35-17.9pp
Best 5 market prices
PRIN
Bet365
1.54
STON
Bet365
2.35

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-3-2+0+2+31st half1st half: -0.4-0.41st half: -0.4-0.42nd half2nd half: -2.6-2.62nd half: +1.2+1.2
-3-2+0+2+31st half1st half: -0.4-0.41st half: -0.4-0.42nd half2nd half: -2.6-2.62nd half: +1.2+1.2
PrincetonStony Brook
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
PrincetonLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Penn
#115
L
25-35
25
35
-10
A07/02
NCAA
Cornell
#175
L
27-44
27
44
-17
H14/02
NCAA
Columbia
#141
W
31-30
31
30
+1
H14/02
NCAA
Brown
#319
L
37-42
37
42
-5
A21/02
NCAA
Harvard
#133
W
33-21
33
21
+12
H28/02
NCAA
Dartmouth
#272
W
43-28
43
28
+15
H28/02
NCAA
Yale
#22
L
30-32
30
32
-2
A07/03
NCAA
Carnegie Mellon
#420
W
38-19
38
19
+19
H02/11
NCAA
Hofstra
#257
L
23-30
23
30
-7
H06/11
NCAA
Siena
#176
L
29-39
29
39
-10
A08/11
NCAA
63.6Avg total
31.6Scored
32.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 64.5
Last 30 (30)31.632.664.2-1.037%53%
Last 30 at home (15)31.729.160.8+2.553%40%
Last 30 away (15)31.536.067.5-4.520%67%
Last 10 (10)31.632.063.6-0.440%40%
Last 5 (5)32.629.662.2+3.040%40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (20)30.234.364.5-4.030%55%
vs Similar ◀ (7)32.931.063.9+1.943%57%
vs Weaker (1)28.030.058.0-2.00%0%
This opponent (Stony Brook) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Stony BrookLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Northeastern
#358
W
29-19
29
19
+10
H07/02
NCAA
Towson
#157
L
23-39
23
39
-16
A13/02
NCAA
Drexel
#193
W
36-35
36
35
+1
H17/02
NCAA
Hampton
#276
W
33-29
33
29
+4
H21/02
NCAA
Monmouth
#159
L
35-49
35
49
-14
A27/02
NCAA
Hofstra
#54
D
32-32
32
32
+0
A01/03
NCAA
Towson
#157
W
36-27
36
27
+9
H03/03
NCAA
Campbell
#222
L
40-48
40
48
-8
H07/03
NCAA
Old Westbury
#493
W
42-18
42
18
+24
H02/11
NCAA
Northwestern
#69
L
30-44
30
44
-14
A07/11
NCAA
67.6Avg total
33.6Scored
34.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 64.5
Last 30 (30)34.733.368.0+1.557%57%
Last 30 at home (15)37.930.368.2+7.580%53%
Last 30 away (15)31.636.267.8-4.633%60%
Last 10 (10)33.634.067.6-0.450%40%
Last 5 (5)36.033.869.8+2.240%40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)31.629.761.3+1.943%29%
vs Similar ◀ (19)34.736.471.1-1.753%68%
vs Weaker (4)40.524.865.2+15.8100%50%
This opponent (Princeton) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winnerActual: Princeton win
PRIN win
no forecast
@ 1.56
STON win
no forecast
@ 2.50
1st half Spread Princeton -2.5 · main lineActual: Princeton -2.5
PRIN -2.5
no forecast
@ 1.88
STON +2.5
no forecast
@ 1.93
1st half Over/Under 64.5 · main lineActual: Under 64.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.90
Under
no forecast
@ 2.05
Princeton 1st half total 33.5 · main lineActual: Princeton over 33.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.93
Under
no forecast
@ 1.98
Stony Brook 1st half total 31.5 · main lineActual: Stony Brook under 31.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.87
Under
no forecast
@ 1.83
1st half Over/Under 66Actual: Under 66
Over
no forecast
@ 2.15
Under
no forecast
@ 1.70
1st half Spread Princeton -3.5Actual: Princeton -3.5
PRIN -3.5
no forecast
@ 2.09
STON +3.5
no forecast
@ 1.76
1st half Spread Princeton -1.5Actual: Princeton -1.5
PRIN -1.5
no forecast
@ 1.74
STON +1.5
no forecast
@ 2.11
1st half Over/Under 62.5Actual: Under 62.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.50
Under
no forecast
@ 2.37
1st half Over/Under 67.5Actual: Under 67.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.12
Under
no forecast
@ 1.62
1st half Spread Princeton -4.5Actual: Princeton -4.5
PRIN -4.5
no forecast
@ 2.30
STON +4.5
no forecast
@ 1.63
1st half Spread Princeton -5.5Actual: Princeton -5.5
PRIN -5.5
no forecast
@ 2.37
STON +5.5
no forecast
@ 1.50
1st half Over/Under 69.5Actual: Under 69.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.55
Under
no forecast
@ 1.45
1st half Spread Princeton -6.5Actual: Princeton -6.5
PRIN -6.5
no forecast
@ 2.65
STON +6.5
no forecast
@ 1.42
1st half Spread Princeton +1.5Actual: Princeton +1.5
PRIN +1.5
no forecast
@ 1.39
STON -1.5
no forecast
@ 2.75
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Princeton (regulation)
PRIN
no forecast
@ 1.60
Draw
no forecast
@ 21.00
STON
no forecast
@ 2.55

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
PRIN win + total 137.5
🔒 Pro
STON win + total 137.5
🔒 Pro
Overtime
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: PRIN leads at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: level at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: STON leads at half
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: close (1-10 points)
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: clear (11-20 points)
🔒 Pro
🔒 8 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Princeton (regulation)79.0%1.50
1xBet
1.53
Betano
1.50
Marathon Bet
1.46		--+18.5ppWon
Princeton -472.1%1.75
SBO
1.78
Pinnacle
1.77
Marathon Bet
1.73
Bet365
1.71		-+18.0ppWon
Princeton -278.4%1.54
Bet365
1.54		----+17.9ppWon
Princeton -1.579.1%1.51
Bet365
1.52
Betano
1.50		---+17.7ppWon
Princeton -2.575.7%1.62
1xBet
1.72
Bet365
1.58
Betano
1.57		--+17.3ppWon
Princeton -375.1%1.64
Pinnacle
1.65
Bet365
1.62		---+17.1ppWon
Princeton -3.573.1%1.71
BetVictor
1.75
SBO
1.75
1xBet
1.72
Pinnacle
1.70
Bet365
1.68		+16.8ppWon
Princeton -180.7%1.45
Bet365
1.45		----+16.5ppWon
Princeton win81.1%1.43
Pinnacle
1.48
1xBet
1.45
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.45
Marathon Bet
1.43		+15.9ppWon
Princeton +182.5%1.38
Bet365
1.38		----+15.5ppWon
Princeton +1.582.8%1.37
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.37		---+15.5ppWon
Princeton +386.7%1.30
Bet365
1.30		----+15.0ppWon
Princeton +284.9%1.33
Bet365
1.33		----+14.9ppWon
Princeton +2.585.3%1.31
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.31		---+14.6ppWon
Princeton +3.586.9%1.28
Bet365
1.29
Betano
1.27		---+14.6ppWon
Overtime: no96.4%1.04
WilliamHill
1.05
Betano
1.02		---+5.9pp-
Stony Brook under 71.573.1%1.33
Betano
1.33		----+4.9ppWon
Over 13172.4%1.37
Bet365
1.37		----+4.9ppLost
Over 131.570.9%1.39
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.38		---+4.6ppLost
Over 13270.3%1.41
Bet365
1.41		----+4.6ppLost
Over 130.573.0%1.35
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.34		---+4.3ppLost
Over 13074.5%1.32
Bet365
1.32		----+4.0ppLost
Over 129.575.0%1.29
Bet365
1.29		----+3.1ppLost
Over 127.578.8%1.22
Bet365
1.22		----+2.6ppWon
Stony Brook under 76.586.2%1.10
Bet365
1.10		----+0.6ppWon
Over 122.586.6%1.09
Bet365
1.09		----+0.5ppWon
Stony Brook over 51.591.3%1.02
Bet365
1.02		----+0.1ppWon
Under 162.590.8%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----1.4ppWon
Stony Brook over 53.587.7%1.04
Bet365
1.04		-----1.7ppWon
Stony Brook over 55.583.1%1.08
Bet365
1.08		-----3.5ppWon
Under 157.584.9%1.04
Bet365
1.04		-----4.4ppWon
Stony Brook over 56.580.5%1.10
Bet365
1.10		-----4.5ppWon
Stony Brook over 57.577.6%1.13
Bet365
1.13		-----4.6ppWon
Stony Brook over 59.571.3%1.22
Bet365
1.22		-----4.9ppLost
Under 152.576.9%1.10
Bet365
1.10		-----8.2ppWon
Princeton under 81.573.3%1.11
Bet365
1.11		-----11.1ppWon
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Princeton wins
0
Stony Brook wins
No previous meetings.
Princetonlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/11/26ASiena68-82
06/11/26HHofstra60-58
02/11/26HCarnegie Mellon78-46
07/03/26AYale53-78
28/02/26HDartmouth82-61
28/02/26HHarvard56-58
21/02/26ABrown71-80
14/02/26HColumbia65-75
14/02/26HCornell65-89
07/02/26APenn60-61
Stony Brooklast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/11/26ANorthwestern65-78
02/11/26HOld Westbury97-47
07/03/26HCampbell89-96
03/03/26HTowson57-69
01/03/26AHofstra58-67
27/02/26AMonmouth69-82
21/02/26HHampton79-72
17/02/26HDrexel72-69
13/02/26ATowson57-69
07/02/26HNortheastern69-55

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Princeton
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWL67%
HomeWW100%
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games321
Win %67%100%0%
Points / game68.769.068.0
Allowed / game62.052.082.0
Point differential+6.7+17.0-14.0
Avg total130.7121.0150.0
Over 137.533%0%100%
Win by 10+33%50%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
Stony Brook
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWL50%
HomeW100%
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games211
Win %50%100%0%
Points / game81.097.065.0
Allowed / game62.547.078.0
Point differential+18.5+50.0-13.0
Avg total143.5144.0143.0
Over 137.5100%100%100%
Win by 10+50%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Ivy League conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Dartmouth43175%83.066.5+16.5
2 Columbia32167%88.765.7+23.0
3 Harvard32167%68.755.3+13.3
4 Cornell32167%83.071.7+11.3
5 Princeton32167%68.762.0+6.7
6 Brown31233%62.362.0+0.3
7 Yale31233%69.379.7-10.3
8 Penn31233%74.786.0-11.3
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Coastal Athletic Association conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Charleston330100%104.767.3+37.3
2 William & Mary220100%92.069.5+22.5
3 NC Wilmington220100%89.570.0+19.5
4 Elon32167%69.368.3+1.0
5 Stony Brook21150%81.062.5+18.5
6 Drexel21150%68.581.5-13.0
7 N. Carolina A&T31233%76.368.3+8.0
8 Hofstra31233%72.765.3+7.3
9 Towson31233%64.367.3-3.0
10 Hampton31233%61.068.7-7.7
11 Northeastern31233%77.086.7-9.7
12 Campbell2020%67.585.0-17.5
13 Monmouth3030%56.782.3-25.7
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Princeton393069
Stony Brook213859
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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